Fall Fiscal and Economic Update November 6, 2018
Fiscal Update 2018-19 Budget Update Variance Revenue 7,673.4 7,803.6 130.2 Expenses 8,356.3 8,350.6 (5.7) Deficit ($M) (682.9) (547.0) 135.9 2
$ US Data to November 1 $ US Prices 45.00 50.00 55.00 60.00 65.00 70.00 75.00 80.00 85.00 90.00 Average Oil Price 2018-19 03-Apr-18 10-Apr-18 17-Apr-18 24-Apr-18 01-May-18 08-May-18 15-May-18 22-May-18 29-May-18 05-Jun-18 12-Jun-18 19-Jun-18 26-Jun-18 03-Jul-18 10-Jul-18 17-Jul-18 Fiscal Year 2018-19 24-Jul-18 31-Jul-18 07-Aug-18 14-Aug-18 21-Aug-18 28-Aug-18 04-Sep-18 11-Sep-18 18-Sep-18 25-Sep-18 02-Oct-18 09-Oct-18 16-Oct-18 23-Oct-18 30-Oct-18 06-Nov-18 Brent Daily ($US 71.25) Brent YTD Avg ($US 75.75) 13-Nov-18 20-Nov-18 27-Nov-18 04-Dec-18 11-Dec-18 18-Dec-18 25-Dec-18 01-Jan-19 08-Jan-19 15-Jan-19 average price. year to achieve the Fall Update required for remainder of this fiscal Average price of $US 71.50 Fall Update price: $US 74.00 Budget 2018 ($US 63.00) 22-Jan-19 29-Jan-19 05-Feb-19 12-Feb-19 19-Feb-19 26-Feb-19 05-Mar-19 12-Mar-19 19-Mar-19 26-Mar-19 3
Oil Price and Exchange Rate Budget 2018 Fall Update 2018 Average Oil Price 2018-19 US $63.00 US $74.00 CDN $79.75 CDN $95.85 0.79 0.77 Exchange Rate (USD/CAD) October 2018 to March 2019 • Oil Price ($US). Every +$1.00 change impacts revenue +$19.9 million • Oil Price ($US). Every -$1.00 change impacts revenue -$10.4 million • Exchange Rate (USD/CAD). Every -1 cent change impacts revenue +$19.5 million • Exchange Rate (USD/CAD). Every +1 cent change impacts revenue -$9.8 million 4
Other Key 2018-19 Financial Indicators Borrowing Requirement • $200 million decrease - Budget 2018 $1.45 billion revised to $1.25 billion Net Debt • $157 million decrease – Budget 2018 $15.53 billion revised to $15.37 billion 5
Economic Forecast Indicators 2018 Budget vs. Update (Percent Change) Budget Update Variance Real Gross Domestic Product -0.8 -2.8 -2.0 Compensation of Employees -1.1 -0.9 +0.2 Household Income 0.7 0.9 +0.2 Retail Sales 0.7 -0.9 -1.6 Consumer Price Index 2.0 2.1 +0.1 Housing Starts -10.1 0.1 +10.2 Capital Investment -9.3 -8.2 +1.1 Population -0.6 -0.6 0.0 Employment -1.0 0.0 +1.0 Unemployment Rate (%) 14.8 14.5 -0.3 Participation Rate (%) 57.8 59.0 +1.2 6
Monthly Change to Employment % Change from same month in previous year 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 -3.0 -4.0 Source: Statistics Canada CANSIM Table 282-0001; NL Department of Finance 7
NL Retail Sales $ billion $12.0 $9.6 $10.0 $9.4 $9.1 $8.9 $9.0 $8.2 $7.5 $8.0 $6.0 $4.0 $2.0 $0.0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Source: Statistics Canada; NL Department of Finance
NL Household Income $28.5 $ billion $30.0 $27.3 $26.7 $25.9 $24.4 $25.0 $22.4 $19.4 $20.0 $15.0 $10.0 $5.0 $0.0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Source: Statistics Canada; NL Department of Finance
NL Major Project Timelines $Billions $16.0 $14.0 Total Capital Investment Including Major Projects $12.0 $10.0 Bay du Nord $8.0 West White Rose $6.0 Muskrat Falls $4.0 Hebron $2.0 Long Harbour Voisey’s Bay Underground Mine $0.0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Source: Statistics Canada; NL Department of Finance
Fall Update 2018 THANK YOU 11
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