Exploring land use change for increasing resilience to climate - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Exploring land use change for increasing resilience to climate change in England Rachelle Ngai, Environmental Research and Sustainability Consultant Rachelle.ngai@jbaconsulting.com @JBAConsulting

Objective of the ASC of the CCC • • • •

Land cover and land use in the UK Source: Agriculture in the UK, 2017, ONS, and 2015 Corine Land Cover Map

Our final methodology…

More detail into Stage 4: Economic assessment

Scenarios Business As Usual Anticipatory response to Climate Threshold Climate Threshold Impact Reactionary response of Climate Threshold Consequences Recovery

Using case studies Broadlands Somerset Levels Moor House and Petteril, Cumbria Rivers - 2,500 km2 Upper Teesdale, - 160km2 - SSSI Catchment, - Neighbours the North Pennines - Catchments of the Lake District NP, Norfolk and - 88km2 Parrett, Axe, and Yorkshire Dales NP Suffolk Broads - Upper catchment Brue and North Pennines - 3,200 km2 of River Tees - Tidal and fluvial AONB - SAC, SPA, Ramsar - SAC, SPA, AONB - Tributary of the site River Eden - The Bure, Wensum, Yare and Waveney catchments with different characteristics and pressures - Tidal and fluvial

Moor House and Upper Teesdale Petteril, Cumbria

Petteril – Current land use and cover 160 km 2 Stage 1: Baseline assessment Stage 2: Climate threshold Stage 3: Evidence Stage 4: Cost benefit

Stage 1: Baseline assessment Stage 2: Climate threshold Stage 3: Evidence Stage 4: Cost benefit

Petteril – Threshold • • Stage 1: Baseline assessment Stage 2: Climate threshold Stage 3: Evidence Stage 4: Cost benefit

Petteril – Summary of land use change Stage 1: Baseline assessment Stage 2: Climate threshold Stage 3: Evidence Stage 4: Cost benefit

Petteril - Net benefits of each scenario Stage 1: Baseline assessment Stage 2: Climate threshold Stage 3: Evidence Stage 4: Cost benefit

Petteril - Natural capital benefits Stage 1: Baseline assessment Stage 2: Climate threshold Stage 3: Evidence Stage 4: Cost benefit

Moor House and Upper Teesdale – Current land use and cover 88 km 2 Stage 1: Baseline assessment Stage 2: Climate threshold Stage 3: Evidence Stage 4: Cost benefit

Moor House and Upper Teesdale - Threshold • • • Stage 1: Baseline assessment Stage 2: Climate threshold Stage 3: Evidence Stage 4: Cost benefit

Moor House and Upper Teesdale – Summary of land use change Stage 1: Baseline assessment Stage 2: Climate threshold Stage 3: Evidence Stage 4: Cost benefit

Moor House and Upper Teesdale – Net benefits of each scenario Relative Net present Scenario PV Costs PV Benefits benefit of value option Business as Usual - £0 £550 £550 - Threshold A (without fire) Anticipatory £50 £850 £800 £250 Reactionary £40 £710 £670 £120 Stage 1: Baseline assessment Stage 2: Climate threshold Stage 3: Evidence Stage 4: Cost benefit

Moor House and Upper Teesdale – Natural capital benefits Stage 1: Baseline assessment Stage 2: Climate threshold Stage 3: Evidence Stage 4: Cost benefit

Conclusions • • •

Policy recommendations • • •

Thank you Rachelle.ngai@jbaconsulting.com @JBAConsulting