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Emissions Inventory and Modelling in India Analysis Using Asia-Pacific Integrated Model Presenter: P.R. Shukla Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, India For AIM India Team 9 th AIM International Workshop NIES, Tsukuba, Japan, March

  1. Emissions Inventory and Modelling in India Analysis Using Asia-Pacific Integrated Model Presenter: P.R. Shukla Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, India For AIM India Team 9 th AIM International Workshop NIES, Tsukuba, Japan, March 12-14, 2004

  2. India Presentation: 9 th AIM International Workshop Presentation Agenda • Emissions Inventory for India • National Applications with New Indian Scenarios � Indian Scenarios � CO 2 Emissions and Large Point Source Analysis (with AIM/Local Model) � Non-CO2 Gas Emissions (with AIM/Local Model) � Integrated Environment Analysis (with AIM/Material Model) • Urban Application (with AIM/Local Model) • Innovative Application (with AIM/Local Model) • Future Direction

  3. India Presentation: 9 th AIM International Workshop Emissions Inventory for India

  4. India Presentation: 9 th AIM International Workshop Indian Emission Trends Emissions (Tg) 1990 1995 2000 CAGR * 778 956 4.9 593 Carbon dioxide Methane 16.98 17.82 18.63 0.9 N 2 O 0.213 0.251 0.308 3.8 SO 2 3.54 4.64 5.02 3.6 NO X 2.64 3.46 4.30 5.0 CO 2 equivalent GHG 1016 1234 1454 3.6 * Compounded Annual Growth Rate over 1990-2000 (%)

  5. India Presentation: 9 th AIM International Workshop Indian Emission Trends CO 2 CH 4 1000 19.5 E m is s io n s (T g ) 19 Emissions (Tg) 800 18.5 600 18 Growth rate 4.9% 17.5 400 Growth rate 0.9% 17 200 16.5 0 16 1990 1995 2000 1990 1995 2000

  6. India Presentation: 9 th AIM International Workshop Indian Emission Trends 7 0.35 E m is s io n s (T g ) 6 0.3 Emissions (Tg) SO 2 (CAGR 3.6%) 5 0.25 4 0.2 N 2 O (CAGR 3.8%) 3 N 2 O Growth rate 0.15 NO x (CAGR 5%) 3.9% 2 0.1 1 0.05 0 0 1990 1995 2000 1990 1995 2000

  7. India Presentation: 9 th AIM International Workshop National Applications � Indian Scenarios

  8. India Presentation: 9 th AIM International Workshop Indian Scenarios Market integration Integrated Fragmented Centralization IA1 IA2 e c n China Pre-reform a n (Mixed Economy Model) r e v IB1 IB2 Decentralizatio n o G Sustainable Self Reliance Model Development

  9. India Presentation: 9 th AIM International Workshop India: Population Projection 1500 High 1400 Population (Million) Medium 1300 Low 1200 1100 1000 2001 2011 2021 2031 Years

  10. India Presentation: 9 th AIM International Workshop India: GDP Projection 1400 Index(2000 = 100) 1200 IA1 1000 800 IB1 600 IA2 GDP 400 IB2 200 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 Years

  11. India Presentation: 9 th AIM International Workshop Energy Consumption 1390 IA1 1290 Energy Consumption (MToE) 1190 IA1T IA2 1090 IB1 990 IB2 890 790 690 590 490 2000 2010 2020 2030 Years

  12. India Presentation: 9 th AIM International Workshop Carbon Emissions (MT) 900 IA1 800 IA2 Carbon Emissions (MT) 700 IB2 IA1T 600 IB1 500 400 300 200 2000 2010 2020 2030 Years

  13. India Presentation: 9 th AIM International Workshop Energy Intensity of GDP (Index Year 2000 = 100) 120 100 Energy intensity index 80 60 IB2 IA2 40 IB1 IA1 20 IA1T 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 Years

  14. India Presentation: 9 th AIM International Workshop Carbon Intensity of GDP (Index Year 2000 = 100) 100 90 Carbon intensity index of GDP 80 70 60 IB2 IA2 50 IA1 IB1 Index at 2000 = 100 IB1 40 2000 2010 2020 2030 Years

  15. India Presentation: 9 th AIM International Workshop Per Capita Carbon Emissions (kg C/person) 700 650 IA1 600 Per Capita Emissions 550 IA2 500 IB2 450 IA1T IB1 400 350 300 250 2000 2010 2020 2030 Years

  16. India Presentation: 9 th AIM International Workshop Energy and Carbon Emissions for India (IA2 Scenario): Analysis with AIM/Models Energy Consumption Carbon Emissions 800 50 Renewables Biomass 40 Nuclear 600 30 Carbon (MT) Hydro Exa Joules Gas 400 20 Oil 200 10 Coal 0 0 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 Year Year

  17. India Presentation: 9 th AIM International Workshop Energy, Carbon, Electricity and GDP (IA2 Scenario) 20 18 Energy Carbon Electricity GDP 16 14 12 10 Past Trends 8 6 4 Future Projections 2 0 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

  18. India Presentation: 9 th AIM International Workshop GDP intensities of Energy, Electricity and Carbon (IA2 Scenario) 1.8 1.6 1.4 Electricity 1.2 Carbon Energy 1 0.8 0.6 Past Trends Future Projections 0.4 0.2 0 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

  19. India Presentation: 9 th AIM International Workshop GHG versus Local Emissions in India Carbon Emissions SO2 Emissions 800 7 6 600 Million Tonnes 5 Carbon (MT) 4 400 3 2 200 1 0 0 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 Year Year

  20. India Presentation: 9 th AIM International Workshop National Applications � CO 2 Emissions and Large Point Source Analysis (with AIM/Local Model)

  21. India Presentation: 9 th AIM International Workshop Regional Spread of Large Point Sources Power Paper Steel Sugar B Cement Caustic soda C Fertilizer Others Regional Details D A Golden corridor A B Delhi E C Northeast India coal mine D East India coal mine E Central India coal mine F F Southern region

  22. India Presentation: 9 th AIM International Workshop LPS Coverage Sector Sub- sectors LPS covered 2000 2010 2020 2030 Energy Power (coal & Oil) 82 111 131 150 Power (natural gas) 12 17 20 23 Steel 11 17 23 29 Cement * 85 98 110 123 Fertilizer 31 41 52 62 Paper 33 38 43 48 Sugar 28 28 29 30 Caustic Soda 19 21 23 26 Industrial H 2SO 4manufacturing 63 64 66 68 processes Aluminium (Al) 3 4 5 5 Copper ore smelting (Cu) 8 9 10 11 Lead ore smelting (Pb) 5 6 7 8 Zinc ore sm elting (Zn) 3 4 5 5 Total 383 458 524 588

  23. India Presentation: 9 th AIM International Workshop Regional distribution of CO 2 emissions for IA2 Scenario 2000 2030 Million Tons Million Tons < 3 0 3 - 6 5 6 - 9 10 9 - 12 15 12 - 15 20 15 - 18 18 - 21 30 > 21 40 Note: Circles show emissions from large point sources

  24. India Presentation: 9 th AIM International Workshop Regional distribution of CO 2 emissions for Different Scenarios (2030) IA1 IB1 IB2 Million Tons Million Tons Million Tons Million Tons 0 0 < 3 < 3 3 - 6 3 - 6 5 5 6 - 9 6 - 9 10 10 9 - 12 9 - 12 15 15 12 - 15 12 - 15 20 20 15 - 18 15 - 18 18 - 21 18 - 21 30 30 > 21 > 21 Note: Circles show emissions from large point sources 40 40

  25. India Presentation: 9 th AIM International Workshop National Applications � Non-CO 2 Gas Emissions (with AIM/Local Model)

  26. India Presentation: 9 th AIM International Workshop Regional distribution of SO 2 emissions for IA2 Scenario 2030 2000 Million Tons Million Tons Million Tons < 0.01 < 0.01 < 0.01 0.03 0.03 0.01-0.017 0.017-0.026 0.07 0.07 0.026-0.035 0.035-0.044 0.11 0.11 0.044-0.053 0.053-0.060 0.15 0.15 > 0.060 < 0.20 > 0.20 Note: Circles show emissions from large point sources

  27. India Presentation: 9 th AIM International Workshop Regional distribution of SO 2 emissions for Different Scenarios (2030) IA1 IB1 IB2 Million Tons Million Tons Million Tons Million Tons Million Tons Million Tons Million Tons < 0.01 < 0.01 < 0.01 < 0.01 < 0.01 < 0.01 < 0.01 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.01-0.017 0.01-0.017 0.017-0.026 0.017-0.026 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.026-0.035 0.026-0.035 0.035-0.044 0.035-0.044 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.044-0.053 0.044-0.053 0.053-0.060 0.053-0.060 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 > 0.060 > 0.060 > 0.20 < 0.20 < 0.20 > 0.20 < 0.20 Note: Circles show emissions from large point sources

  28. India Presentation: 9 th AIM International Workshop Regional distribution of CH 4 emissions for IA2 Scenario 2000 2030 Thousand Ton CH 4 Note: Circles show emissions from large point sources

  29. India Presentation: 9 th AIM International Workshop Regional distribution of N 2 O emissions for IA2 Scenario 2000 2030 Note: Circles show emissions from large point sources

  30. India Presentation: 9 th AIM International Workshop Regional distribution of CO 2 Equivalent for IA2 Scenario 2000 2030 Mt-CO 2 Mt-CO 2 equivalent equivalent 0 < 3 3 - 6 5 6 - 9 10 9 - 12 15 12 - 15 20 15 - 18 30 18 - 21 40 > 21

  31. India Presentation: 9 th AIM International Workshop National Applications � Integrated Environment Analysis (with AIM/Material Model)

  32. India Presentation: 9 th AIM International Workshop Solid Waste Generation for Indian Emission Scenarios ( Index Year 2000 = 1) 3 IA1 IA2 2.5 IB1 IB2 2 1.5 1 2000 2010 2020 2030

  33. India Presentation: 9 th AIM International Workshop Cumulative CO2 emissions from India (2000-2030) 14 12 10 8 MtC 6 4 2 0 Reference Constraint Recycling Innovation

  34. India Presentation: 9 th AIM International Workshop Change in GDP over Reference (IA2) Scenario 2015 2020 2025 2010 2030 0 -10 -20 Billion $ (Constant 2000) -30 -40 -50 -60 -70 -80 Constraint Recycling Innovation -90

  35. India Presentation: 9 th AIM International Workshop Urban Applications Analysis with AIM/ Local Model

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