Elizabeth Jordan April 6, 2012 Problem POD Despite efforts to - PDF document

6/8/2012 Elizabeth Jordan April 6, 2012 Problem POD  Despite efforts to improve community resilience, over the past 25 years the number and economic Questions impact of disasters has increased annually Methods Findings Conclusion New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina We still lack a comprehensive theory of disaster recovery 2 1

6/8/2012 Problem POD  Recovery efforts must incorporate the natural, built and human systems  Recent emphasis is on “sustainable recovery” (Smith and Wenger Questions 2006, Mileti 1999, Berke 1993)  Potential indicators for recovery include: economic growth, household income levels, population levels, and housing damage index (Liu 2010, Chang 2010) Methods Findings Conclusion Images of the Lower Ninth Ward, New Orleans (NYTimes) 3 Problem POD Questions Vulnerability: Resilience: exposure to risks from the ability to withstand natural hazards and a disaster impacts and lack of ability to cope Methods the ability to cope with with the impacts of those impacts in order disasters and recover to recover quickly quickly Findings Conclusion The links between resilience, vulnerability and ability to recovery are still unclear 4 2

6/8/2012 Problem POD 1) Why do communities facing the same disaster recover differently? Questions 2) What combinations of pre-disaster community factors, disaster response engineering and planning efforts lead to Methods successful recovery? However, we must first answer: Findings  What causal factors of recovery are important to study in cross case comparisons? Conclusion  What indicators can be used to measure recovery at the community level? 5 Problem POD Variab Variable S le Selecti lection Delphi Panel: Content Analysis: Case D Case Data Co Collec llection ion Variable Selection Identify Variables Questions Identify Data Define Recovery Select Causal Communities Collection Outcomes Conditions Methods QCA QCA Findings Assign Values Build Truth Internal Validity to Community Table Tests Variables Analyze Results Conclusion Generate Theory Framework Building 6 3

6/8/2012 Problem POD Recovery Indicators • Economic Questions • Environmental • Infrastructure • Social Methods Causal Factors in Resilience Findings • Re Recove covery ry Strateg Strategy • Pre-Dis Pre-Disas aster ter • Economic • Infrastructure Conclusion • Institutional • Social 7 Problem POD  QCA was selected for this analysis because it provides a middle ground between statistical Questions analysis and small-N case studies and retains sensitivity to interactions between variables Methods Findings Quan Qu antitative tative Qu Qualit alitative ative • Case-based • Variable-based Conclusion • Large-N populations • Small-N populations 8 4

6/8/2012 Problem POD Pilot Study: New Orleans 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami Questions Methods Findings Conclusion Hurricane Katrina Flood Inundation by www.globalhealthimmersionprograms.org Census Tract (Finch et al 2010) 9 Problem Used existing data to test the QCA method for POD neighborhood recovery in New Orleans Questions  Causal Factors  Outcome ◦ Damage ◦ Population Return Methods ◦ Economic Capacity ◦ Infrastructure Type ◦ Institutional Capacity Findings Data Sources: ◦ Social Vulnerability U.S. Census, LSU survey, ◦ Social Capital New Orleans Neighborhood Partnership Network, Conclusion ◦ Recovery Funds Greater New Orleans ◦ Recovery Participation Community Data Center 10 5

6/8/2012 Problem POD  Results in pathways to successful recovery Funds AND EconomicCap Questions OR Funds AND Participation AND SocialCap AND InstitCAP Methods Variable Variab le Necessity Necessity Suffic fficiency iency ~ SocialVul 0.90 0.89 Findings Participation 0.89 0.82 Infrastructure 0.82 0.81 Funds 0.78 0.61 Conclusion EconomicCap 0.75 0.93 InstitCap 0.71 0.73 SocialCap 0.65 0.76 11 Problem POD  Complete pilot study for multiple recovery indicators Questions  Indian Ocean tsunami study ◦ Data collection will occur in Tamil Nadu, India from Methods June – Sept ◦ 15-20 villages selected ◦ Data collected from documentation, in-depth Findings interviews, observations and focus groups Conclusion 12 6

6/8/2012 Problem POD  Identification of important variables to study in cross-case comparison Questions  Consensus building on recovery definition  Cross-case comparison of recovery Methods  Disaster recovery theory building Findings Conclusion 13  This research is funded under the NSF IMEE program and by the Mortenson Center for Engineering in Developing Communities 14 7

6/8/2012 15 Problem  A Delphi panel was used to validate the set of recovery POD indicators and causal factors and rate their importance Questions Methods Findings Contributions Adapted from Hallowell, Matthew R. “Qualitative Research: Application of the Delphi Method to CEM” 16 8

6/8/2012 Problem POD  Analyzed 202 journal articles representing engineering,  The Delphi panel rated all of these factors as at least three (“important”) on a five point scale. However, there social sciences, geography, inter-disciplinary and Questions practitioner viewpoints was some disagreement about what causes vulnerability and what creates resilience Economic Infrastructure Institutional Social Recovery Methods Strategy • Business • Construction • Access to Gov't • Access to • Access to Diversity Method Resources Transportation Information • Income • Construction Quality • Building Codes •Attachment to Place • Citizen Findings • Income • Maintenance • Emergency •Community Age Participation Disparity Practices Preparedness •Disabled • Emergent Groups • Insurance • Protective • Environmental Populations • NGO presence Structures Degradation •Education Levels • Recovery Funds Contributions • Supply Chain • Health Services •Gender Equity • Recovery Goals Redundancies • Response Agency •Minority Populations • Urbanization Capacity •Non-English • Previous Experience Speakers • Recovery Planning •Social Networks • Zoning Regulations 17 Problem POD  Performed the same analysis to determine indicators of  Again, the Delphi rated all of these as important (with the exception of erosion) community recovery. The infrastructure indicators were used most often in journal articles Questions Economic Environmental Infrastructure Social • Employment • Air Quality • Facilities & Lifelines • Mental Health Methods • GNP/ Gov’t Revenue • Debris Removal • Housing Repair • Population Return • Housing Values • Erosion • Transportation • Perceived Quality of • Income • Water Quality • Risk Reduction Life • Number of Businesses • Social Service Findings • Standard of Living Availability Contributions 18 9

6/8/2012 Problem POD Questions Methods Findings Contributions 19 Problem  Variable Operationalization POD ◦ Dam Damage: : Depth of flooding by census tract ◦ Econ Economic Capac Capacity ty: Combination of average income and insurance Questions coverage ◦ Infr frastru astructure ture A Age: Percentage of housing stock built before 1949 ◦ Institu stitutional C ional Capacity: pacity: Longevity of neighborhood association Methods (coded 0 if no association existed pre-Katrina) ◦ So Social V al Vulnerabil lnerability: ity: Combination of % over 65, % below 12, % non- white, % disabled, % non-English speaker, % without high school Findings diploma and % without vehicles ◦ Soc Social Capita Capital: l: Combination of social trust rating (self-reported) and percent living in same home since 1989 or longer Contributions ◦ Reco Recovery ry Fun Funds: level of Community Development Block Grant (CDBG) funds per neighborhood ◦ Reco Recovery ry Parti Partici cipa pation: Self-reported civic engagement post-Katrina 20 10