REFUGEES WELCOME? CONTESTATION OVER A EUROPEAN DISTRIBUTION MECHANISM “Migration, Identity and Politics in Europe” Carleton University, Ottawa, Ontario, 1 1 March 2019 2019 Johannes Müller Gómez Université de Montréal & Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München Birte Windheuser Universität zu Köln
APPROACHES TO SOLVE THE “REFUGEE CRISIS” Natio Na ional Border closures • Introduction of daily limits • In Intern rnational EU-Turkey agreement • Europea Eur ean Establishment of hotspots • Decision on relocating 160,000 refugees • Strengthening of FRONTEX • Proposal for a permanent distribution mechanism • Johannes Müller Gómez | Université de Montréal & LMU Munich 2
MEMBER STATES‘ POSITIONS ON A PERMANENT REFUGEE DISTRIBUTION MECHANISM (RDM) 2015-2016 In In fa favour ur of of an an RDM RD Mo Mostly bu but n not ful fully in in fa favour ur of of an an RDM Rather in Ra in fa favour ur of of an an RDM Rather agai Ra against an an RD RDM Mo Mostly agai against an an RD RDM Ag Against an an RDM Map produced via stepmap.com 2017 Johannes Müller Gómez | Université de Montréal & LMU Munich 3
RESEARCH QUESTION Why do member states reject the establishment of a permanent European refugee distribution mechanism (RDM)? Johannes Müller Gómez | Université de Montréal & LMU Munich 4
HYPOTHESES H1: Member states that are no not affe ffected by the he refug fugee crisis reject a European distribution mechanism. H2: Member states with a we weak ak economy reject a European distribution mechanism. H3: Member states with a hi high deg degree o ee of E EU-sc scept epticism sm reject a European distribution mechanism. H4: Member states with a lo low share of Muslim lim popula latio ion reject a European distribution mechanism. H5: Member states with a lo low degree of EU in integratio ion reject a European distribution mechanism Johannes Müller Gómez | Université de Montréal & LMU Munich 5
QUALITATIVE COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS à QCA useful “for analyzing complex causation, defined as a situation in which an outcome may follow from several different combinations of causal conditions”* à Here: Fuzzy set QCA Impact of „refugee crisis“ Economic situation EU-scepticism Rejection Rejection of of a a distrib distr ibution ution mechanism mechanism Degree of EU Muslim integration population *Source: Ragin, Charles C. (2008): Redesigning Social Inquiry. Fuzzy Sets and Beyond, London: University of Chicago Press, p.23. Johannes Müller Gómez | Université de Montréal & LMU Munich 6
NECESSARY CONDITION Johannes Müller Gómez | Université de Montréal & LMU Munich 7
SUFFICIENT CONDITIONS Small Muslim Not affected by the * * Weak economy Degree of EU population refugee crisis of RDM RDM integration * Rejection of Small Muslim Low degree of Not affected by * * population integration Rejection the refugee crisis Low degree of Small Muslim * * Weak economy population integration But: France, UK, Finland and Ireland do not fit in any of these solution terms Johannes Müller Gómez | Université de Montréal & LMU Munich 8
SUFFICIENT CONDITIONS Degree of EU Muslim population * * EU-scepticism (-) integration * Refugees (+) * (+) of RDM RDM t of EU-scepticism (-) Economy (+) Refugees (+) * * * * ort Suppor Sup Muslim population Integration (+) Refugees (+) * * (+) But: Bulgaria, Italy, Portugal and the Netherlands do not fit in any of these solution terms Johannes Müller Gómez | Université de Montréal & LMU Munich 9
CASE STUDIES Fr France : § Not affected § Terrorist attacks § Front national UK : UK § Not affected § EU-sceptic atmosphere § Muslim population not with Arabic but Pakistani and Bangladeshi background § Opt-in-option land : Fin Finla § Highly affected, but split government: Centre Party vs. Finns Party Hungary : Hu § National solution § Perception of the refugee crisis as a ’German problem’ Johannes Müller Gómez | Université de Montréal & LMU Munich 10
CONCLUDING REMARKS § Not being affected neither sufficient nor necessary for rejection of RDM § Striking relevance of Muslim population in the member states for rejection of RDM – almost a necessary condition § Particularly in combination with a) Low degree of integration b) Weak economy c) Low degree to which the member state is affected § Support of RDM: Number of refugees as a decisive factor, but only in combination, especially with a low share of Muslim population and a low degree of EU-skepticism § Bulgaria, the Netherlands, Italy and Portugal: Act of solidarity? Johannes Müller Gómez | Université de Montréal & LMU Munich 11
MERCI Corresponding author: Johannes Müller Gómez Université de Montréal & LMU Munich johannes.muller.gomez [at] umontreal.ca
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