ELECTRIFICATION Ontario Power Generation / Feb 27, 2019 Ontarios - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

PLANNING FOR ELECTRIFICATION Ontario Power Generation / Feb 27, 2019

Ontario’s Electricity Sector Emissions Have Fallen Drastically… 35 30 25 Megatonnes CO2eq 20 15 10 5 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Ontario Electricity System OPG

Electricity is the Lowest Emitting Major Sector in Ontario 180 1990 Emissions: 177 Mt 160 140 Transportation Ontario GHG Emissions 120 100 Buildings (Mt) 80 60 Heavy Industry 40 Agriculture Oil and Gas 20 Other Industry Waste Electricity 0 2015 Ontario GHG Emissions

Leverage Ontario’s Clean Electricity to Reduce Transportation Emissions Net Annual Reduction in Ontario GHG Emissions 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 Mt -5 -6 Base Case -7 High EV Penetration -8 -9 -10 Note: This graph accounts for changes in emissions from converting ICE vehicles to EVs in both the electricity and transportation 4

Impact of EV’s on Ontario’s Electricity System

Lots of Investment since 2000 $ Investment 6

But, Electricity Demand Collapses 165 Ontario Electricity Demand 160 155 (TWh) 150 145 140 135 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 7

Electricity Math $ Electricity Price MWh 8

Possible Solutions $ MWh Pull Costs out of the System Electrification – Increase Consumption • Difficult because of • Consuming surplus removes contractual obligations, deadweight loss from system but some progress being • Electricity can be put to a productive made use, creating jobs and building the economy 9

Benefits and Impact of Electrification Ontario Electricity Demand 170 Actual Projected 165 160 155 150 145 140 135 130 125 120 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 Base EV Demand High EV Demand No EVs Historical Actual

EVs Can Lower Electricity Prices 2037 Electricity Commodity Prices $152 $151 $150 $149 $148 $/MWh $147 $146 $145 $144 $143 $142 $141 No EVs Base Case High EV Penetration 11

Managing Electric Vehicle Demand will be Essential Electricity Demand and EV Charging Profiles 24,000 22,000 Overnight charging occurs 20,000 when electricity demand is at its 18,000 lowest 16,000 Convenience charging occurs at the same time as 14,000 peak electricity demand 12,000 1 AM 2 AM 3 AM 4 AM 5 AM 6 AM 7 AM 8 AM 9 AM 10 AM 11 AM 12 PM 1 PM 2 PM 3 PM 4 PM 5 PM 6 PM 7 PM 8 PM 9 PM 10 PM 11 PM 12 AM Overnight Charging On-Peak Charging Ontario Electricity Demand

Unmanaged EV Demand Will Require New Generation 16 # of New Peaking Gas Plants Required to Service EV Demand over the Next 20 Years 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Base EV Penetration, High EV Penetration, Base EV Penetration, High EV Penetration, Base EV Penetration, High EV Penetration, Charging Overnight Charging Overnight 50% Charging On- 50% Charging On- 100% Charging On- 100% Charging On- Peak Peak Peak Peak 13

Electrification Strategy

As Ontario’s largest, clean, low -cost generator we can help deliver a future powered by made-in-Ontario electricity. Maximize use of existing Leverage OPG’s clean clean generation Create new commercial electricity to support the investments with growth opportunities for electrification of increased electricity OPG transportation demand 15

Efficient Electrification: A balanced approach to carbon reduction. Reduce Electricity Rates Cost-Effective Reduction of GHGs Put downward pressure on electricity rates by Ontario’s electricity has one of the lowest spreading fixed costs over a larger amount of carbon intensities in the world. electricity consumption. 16

Canadian Clean Energy and Electrification Assessment Task 1: Task 3: Task 2: Task 4: Canadian Electric Sector Model Clean Energy and Electrification Canadian Energy Communication and Outreach Development Assessment End-Use Model Development (Underway - EPRI Funding) Canadian Assessment Province-Level Assessment

Potential ential for Ef Effici icient ent El Electrif ectrification ication Var aries es by En End-Use Use Appl plication ication TRANSPORT Batteries for Long-Haul Trucking EVs and PHEVs Electrified Transit BUILDINGS Heat Pumps Electric-only applications Heat Pump Water Heaters, Electric Range, Clothes Dryers Manufacturing Induction Melting, Infrared Drying, etc. INDUSTRY Industrial Facilities Non-Road Vehicles U.S. 2015 Final Energy Break-Out

Electrification Activity Areas LEADERSHIP & ADVOCACY FLEET NEW BUSINESS ELECTRIFICATION OPPORTUNITIES 19

Questions? Andrea Brown andrea.brown@opg.com

THANK YOU.