Electrification Futures Study Paige Jadun Electrify Colorado! - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Electrification Futures Study Paige Jadun Electrify Colorado! Beneficial Electrification In the 21st Century! Denver, CO, June 12, 2019 Material includes unpublished preliminary data and analysis that has not been peer- nrel.gov/EFS reviewed and is subject to change - not for distribution, quotation, or citation

NREL-led collaboration, multi-year study Technology cost and performance (December 2017) Published Demand-side adoption scenarios (June 2018) dsgrid model documentation (August 2018) Under Review Supply-side evolution scenarios (~2019) Methodological approaches (~2019) Impacts of electrification (~2020) Ongoing Electricity system operations (~2020) + Planned research on distribution system and Study sponsored by U.S. DOE-EERE Office of Strategic Programs utility business model impacts (2020-21) NREL | 2

Mai et al. (2018). Scenarios of Electric Technology Adoption and Power Consumption for the United States . “Demand-side Scenarios” 1.6%/year CAGR (2016-2050) 1.2%/year 0.6%/year 2050 U.S. electricity consumption increases relative to Reference • Medium +932 TWh (20%) • High +1,782 TWh (38%) NREL | 3

Mai et al. (2018). Scenarios of Electric Technology Adoption and Power Consumption for the United States . “Demand-side Scenarios” Penetration of electric technologies based on expert judgement and consumer choice modeling State-level data with end-use sales shares, stock, service demand, and electricity demand available at www.nrel.gov/efs NREL | 4

Planning for electrification requires considering the impacts to annual consumption and load shapes Peak Load (GW) Note: Summer = June-August, Fall = September-November, Winter = December-February, Spring = March-May NREL | 5

Meeting new system needs from electrification could require a scaling-up of U.S. electricity infrastructure development Historical Modeled Data Source: U.S. EIA High Electrification Mid Case Solar: ~40 GW/yr The future generation mix depends on uncertain technology, Natural gas: ~30 GW/yr Wind: ~20 GW/yr +Even higher rates in some scenarios market, and policy conditions. Preliminary Results—Do Not Distribute, Quote or Cite NREL | 6

Key Takeaways • Under scenarios with increased electrification: – growth in electricity demand could outstrip historical rates – electrified demands could re-shape load profiles • Meeting these electrification-driven changes in demand could result in unprecedented capacity development in the U.S., with impacts on: – electric system expenditures – electricity prices – energy system costs – emissions – fuel and energy consumption • Ongoing research in the Electrification Futures Study will examine power systems operations in greater detail, including production cost simulations and distribution system modeling Preliminary Results—Do Not Distribute, Quote or Cite NREL | 7

Thank you paige.jadun@nrel.gov www.nrel.gov /efs NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC.

Additional Slides

Scenarios for end-use electric technology advancement Slow Advancement BNEF 2016 300 Moawad et al. 2016 Moderate Advancement Rapid Advancement DOE-VTO Interpolated 200 100 Batte 0 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Technology data is foundational to cost-benefit assessments • 3 trajectories (slow, moderate, rapid) for buildings and transportation • Literature-based summary of industrial https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy18osti/70485.pdf electrotechnologies NREL | 10

Developing demand-side scenarios OBJECTIVES Characterize changes to end-use sectors under increasing levels of electrification Quantify how electrification impacts total electricity demand and consumption profiles APPROACH Expert judgment adoption projections and consumer choice modeling Bottom-up stock and energy accounting model (EnergyPATHWAYS) SCENARIOS Reference : Least incremental change (~AEO2017) Medium : Widespread electrification among low(er)-hanging fruit opportunities High : Transformational electrification NREL | 11

Method in brief: Sales shares determined from a Electrification follows a similar trend combination of expert judgment based on current trends & Example for light-duty vehicles consumer choice models (e.g., NREL ADOPT model for LDVs) EnergyPATHWAYS model used for stock rollover and detailed energy accounting Principles: technology-rich assessment, bottom-up accounting, cross-sectoral breadth, national scope with state-level detail NREL | 12

Transportation Sector Details • 2050 U.S. transportation fleet (High scenario): • 240 million light-duty plug-in electric vehicles • 7 million medium- and heavy- duty plug-in electric trucks • 80 thousand battery electric transit buses • Together these deliver up to 76% of miles traveled from electricity in 2050 NREL | 13

Buildings Sector Details • In the combined buildings sector (residential + commercial) in 2050, electric equipment provides up to: • 61% of space heating • 52% of water heating • 94% of cooking services (High scenario; right column) • Appliance lifetimes limit total penetration NREL | 14

Modeling Methods • Regional Ener ergy D Dep eploymen ent S System em ( (ReE eEDS) – Long-term capacity expansion model of the electricity system in the contiguous United States • Base se m model = = 2018 2018 Final R Release se V Versi sion – Consistent with 2018 Standard Scenarios report – Key assumptions from ATB 2018 and AEO2018 • New e electrif ific icatio ion-speci cific m c method odol olog ogical i improvements Improvements Model Sun, Yinong, Trieu Mai, Paige Jadun, Caitlin Murphy, Jeffrey Logan, Brent Nelson. Forthcoming. Electrification Futures Study: Methodological Approaches for Assessing Long-term Power System Impacts of End-use Electrification. NREL | 15

Report Topics and Structure Dispa patch a h and Infrastructure gene neration n needs ds mixe xes Natural g l gas Elec ectric s system em cons nsum umption n cost m metric ics and pr nd pric ices Impacts o Im of Emissio ions flexib xible l load How might the U.S. power system evolve, how could electrification impact this evolution, and what are the possible implications? NREL | 16

The required capacity development and operating needs lead to corresponding increases in electric system expenditures* Ranges reflect end-use technology advancement cases *Bulk power system only; distribution system costs not included However, when levelized by incremental electrification-driven demand, costs are similar ($40-$43/MWh) under both Medium and High scenarios, suggesting that the U.S. is rich in low-cost resources. Preliminary Results—Do Not Distribute, Quote or Cite NREL | 17

Doubling (or more) current installed capacity to meet High electrification requires sustained development of multiple technologies; technology mix depends on future conditions % Change: Electrification 2018 2030 2040 2050 2018-2050 Reference 1,200 1,400 1,600-1,700 50%-55% Medium 1,100 1,700-1,800 2,000-2,300 100%-105% 1,300-1,400 High 1,800-2,000 2,300-2,600 105%-140% Preliminary Results—Do Not Distribute, Quote or Cite NREL | 18