Election Analysis and Implications for Brexit @QUBPolicy 17 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

GE2019: Post- Election Analysis and Implications for Brexit @QUBPolicy 17 December 2019 qub.ac.uk/brexit

A Brexit election? Dr Jamie Pow (@JamiePow)

A new political landscape 2017 +1.2 Vote share (%) 2019 -7.9 +4.2 +2.5 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 +7.4 Seat share (%) -9.2 -0.2 +2.0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Source: Financial Times (14/12/19)

Was it a surprise? GB Company Fieldwork CON LAB LDEM GRN BXP Opinium 10-11 Dec 45 33 12 2 2 Ipsos-MORI 9-11 Dec 44 33 12 3 2 YouGov 4-10 Dec 43 34 12 3 3 Deltapoll 9-11 Dec 45 35 10 3 3 Survation 10-11 Dec 45 34 9 3 3 Actual result (GB) 12 Dec 45 33 12 3 2 NI Company Fieldwork DUP SF ALL SDLP UUP LucidTalk 27-30 Nov 32 25 17 14 12 Actual result (NI) 12 Dec 31 23 17 15 12

What explains the result? Female 20 Conservative vote Brexit Male Change in 10 18-24 25-34 0 35-44 45-54 -10 50 20 30 40 60 70 80 55-64 Leave vote (2016) 65+ 20 Education Conservative vote AB C1 Change in C2 10 DE 0 No qualifications Other qualifications Degree + -10 50 10 20 30 40 60 Graduates -40 -20 0 20 40 Source: Will Jennings & Sky News Source: Ipsos-MORI

Were people engaged? Voter turnout Turnout change (NI) UK Northern Ireland BS 90 BN ND 80 Fo LV 70 EA SA 60 BE UB 50 St 40 SD EL 30 MU WT 20 N&A FST 10 BW NA 0 1992 1997 2001 2005 2010 2015 2017 2019 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 Source: EONI Source: House of Commons Library, EONI

The (electoral) rise of the ‘neithers’ Vote share change Ethno-national identity Alliance 8.8 Unionist Nationalist Neither 60 SDLP 3.1 UUP 1.4 50 DUP -5.4 Sinn Féin 40 -6.7 -10 -5 0 5 10 30 Vote share by designation 20 Unionist 10 Nationalist Neither 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2014 2017 Source: EONI Source: NI Life & Times Survey

Brexit: what next? Prof David Phinnemore (@DPhinnemore)

Where are we with Brexit?

Where next with Brexit? December 2019 • Withdrawal Agreement 31 January Transition Bill – second reading? 2020 January 2020 to 31 December • Withdrawal Agreement 2020 (2300 GMT) Bill – to House of Lords and third reading extendable once by UK Withdraws • European Parliament one or two years from EU Consent (plenary meetings: 13-16 and 29- decision needed by 30 January) Brexit ‘done’? 1 July 2020 • Withdrawal Agreement signed • Council Decision approving Withdrawal Agreement

Transition: Agreeing the Future UK-EU Relationship UK-EU Political UK-EU negotiations on Deal before 31 Declaration future relationship December 2020 “The European Council reconfirms “In that spirit, this declaration its desire to establish as close as establishes the parameters of an possible a future relationship with ambitious, broad, deep and the UK in line with the Political flexible partnership across trade Declaration and respecting the and economic cooperation with a previously agreed European comprehensive and balanced Council’s guidelines, as well as Free Trade Agreement at its core, statements and declarations, law enforcement and criminal notably those of 25 November justice, foreign policy, security 2018. The future relationship will and defence and wider areas of have to be based on a balance of cooperation” rights and obligations and ensure a level playing field ” 17 October 2019 European Council, 13.12.19

Future UK-EU Relationship: a deal during transition? Customs Does UK know Level-Playing what it wants? Field Ratification Agriculture Services Agreement Fish EU Decision- among EU27 making autonomy Balance of rights and obligations Security Access to EU Regulatory Cooperation Progammes alignment A delayed no Dispute- deal Brexit? Settlement

The (revised) Protocol on Ireland/N.Ireland Dr Katy Hayward (@hayward_katy)

What’s new? First, note the change in anticipated direction of travel… As per the Political Declaration on the Future Relationship

How does it differ from the backstop? Preamble • No mention of the Customs Single Market for Democratic consent intention to replace the Goods • NI is part of customs • 4 years after the end of Protocol, so the territory of the UK. defau lt. transition, NI MLAs will • NI follows the EU’s vote on whether to rules & regulations • • No expression of a Yet Article 5 (4) All EU continue the operation which affect trade in goods laws in Annex 2 common UK-EU of Arts.5-10, i.e. goods, inc. Sanitary & apply to NI. Annex 2= objective of a close customs/SM. Phytosanitary Union Customs Code future relationship. standards; • If there is cross- • No mention of the fact • NI collects tariffs on environmental community vote in that the transition behalf of EU, then standards; & State favour, the next vote period may be rebated. Aid. will be in 8 years. extended by mutual • • • If there is just a simple consent. NI applies the EU’s NI follows EU VAT rules, which will regulations governing majority, there will be not apply in GB. electricity markets. a review process and next vote in 4 years. • If vote against, ????

Unilateral declaration on the operation of democratic consent • The Assembly will be voting on the motion put forward that Arts 5-10 will continue to apply in NI i.e. the rest of the Protocol will endure regardless • The purpose of the MLA vote is for ‘affording or withholding consent’. • Objective is ‘to achieve agreement that is as broad as possible in NI’. • The intention that this will have been done by a process led by the NI Executive via ‘a thorough process of public consultation’ supported by UK govt. • Inc. businesses, civil society groups, representative orgs, TUs • + The NSMC and BIIGC ‘should be involved’ • But choice could get more not less invidious over time…

The UK internal market

So, will there be an Irish Sea border? • Third country access to the EU is very different to EU membership. • Entire EU-UK alignment at the moment is underpinned by CJEU, which UK wants to remove. • There could be tariffs on GB-NI goods which are at risk of entering the single market • If the goods are finally used in NI there will be a rebate system. • Products of Animal Origin GB-NI will have to be subject to documentary and physical checks, even if not a tariff issue. • All commercial goods GB-NI will need to be subject to declarations even if no tariff to be paid • Article 271 of UCC = Exit summary declarations compulsory in absence of customs declarations