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2016 Election: Polling Analysis What Other Pollsters Got Wrong - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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2016 Election: Polling Analysis What Other Pollsters Got Wrong What to Look For Next February 16, 2017 Opinion Research on Elections and Public Policy Probolsky Research Newport Beach (949) 855-6400 3990 Westerly Place Suite 185 San

  1. 2016 Election: Polling Analysis What Other Pollsters Got Wrong What to Look For Next February 16, 2017 Opinion Research on Elections and Public Policy Probolsky Research Newport Beach (949) 855-6400 3990 Westerly Place Suite 185 San Francisco (415) 870-8150 Newport Beach CA 92660 Washington DC (202) 559-0270

  2. Alternative Fact: Polls got it wrong! National polls criticized following 2016 election for missing mark. Probolsky Research Newport Beach (949) 855-6400 3990 Westerly Place Suite 185 San Francisco (415) 870-8150 2 Newport Beach CA 92660 USA Washington DC (202) 559-0270

  3. The numbers tell a different story. Probolsky Research Newport Beach (949) 855-6400 3990 Westerly Place Suite 185 San Francisco (415) 870-8150 3 Newport Beach CA 92660 USA Washington DC (202) 559-0270

  4. National Polls: Better than historical average Final Real Clear Politics average missed mark by just 1.2 percent. Final Results: Clinton +2.1 RCP Average: Clinton +3.3 Bloomberg: Clinton +3 Reuters/Ipsos: Clinton +3 Rasmussen: Clinton +2 Probolsky Research Newport Beach (949) 855-6400 3990 Westerly Place Suite 185 San Francisco (415) 870-8150 4 Newport Beach CA 92660 USA Washington DC (202) 559-0270

  5. 5 Keys to Accurate Polling Not all polls are created equal. 1. Use the voter file , when available. 2. Don’t put cap on mobile phones . 3. Adopt multi-lingual methodology. 4. Pollster: Diverse research background 5. Willingness to use qualitative, alternative methods for close elections Probolsky Research Newport Beach (949) 855-6400 3990 Westerly Place Suite 185 San Francisco (415) 870-8150 5 Newport Beach CA 92660 USA Washington DC (202) 559-0270

  6. NY Times: Duck Dynasty vs. Modern Family Increase in cultural divide based on rural and urban communities Probolsky Research Newport Beach (949) 855-6400 3990 Westerly Place Suite 185 San Francisco (415) 870-8150 6 Newport Beach CA 92660 USA Washington DC (202) 559-0270

  7. Why Polls Missed: Small, Systematic Error Nate Silver: Polls underestimated Trump in red states, Clinton in blue. “…if Clinton had done only 2 percentage points better across the board, she would have received 307 electoral votes and the polls would have “called” 49 of 50 states correctly.” --Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight.com Probolsky Research Newport Beach (949) 855-6400 3990 Westerly Place Suite 185 San Francisco (415) 870-8150 7 Newport Beach CA 92660 USA Washington DC (202) 559-0270

  8. Final RCP Map Missed in 4 States Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin Probolsky Research Newport Beach (949) 855-6400 3990 Westerly Place Suite 185 San Francisco (415) 870-8150 8 Newport Beach CA 92660 USA Washington DC (202) 559-0270

  9. Why Polls Missed: The Margin of Error Nevada, Pennsylvania within the margin of error. Nevada Pennsylvania Final Results: Clinton +2.4 Final Results: Trump +0.7 RCP Average: Clinton +1.9 RCP Average: Trump +0.8 --------------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------- Emerson: Clinton +1 Trafalgar Group: Trump +1 Gravis: Clinton +2 Morning Call: Clinton +4 Remington: Trump +1 Harper: Tie Gravis: Clinton +2 8 News NOW: Tie CNN/ORC: Trump +6 Susquehanna Clinton +2 Probolsky Research Newport Beach (949) 855-6400 3990 Westerly Place Suite 185 San Francisco (415) 870-8150 9 Newport Beach CA 92660 USA Washington DC (202) 559-0270

  10. Why Polls Missed: Late Deciding Voters Voters in swing states that decided in the last week broke strongly for Trump. Late Deciding Voters Wisconsin: 59-30 Florida: 55-38 Pennsylvania: 54-37 Michigan: 50-39 Probolsky Research Newport Beach (949) 855-6400 3990 Westerly Place Suite 185 San Francisco (415) 870-8150 10 Newport Beach CA 92660 USA Washington DC (202) 559-0270

  11. Why Polls Missed: Shy Trumpers Morning Consult found “shy” Trumpers, but downplayed significance. Probolsky Research Newport Beach (949) 855-6400 3990 Westerly Place Suite 185 San Francisco (415) 870-8150 11 Newport Beach CA 92660 USA Washington DC (202) 559-0270

  12. Michigan: One Firm Got It Right Trafalgar Group used robo-poll, asked for “your neighbor’s vote.” Probolsky Research Newport Beach (949) 855-6400 3990 Westerly Place Suite 185 San Francisco (415) 870-8150 12 Newport Beach CA 92660 USA Washington DC (202) 559-0270

  13. Why Polls Missed: Rust Belt Democrats Mahoning County shows clear shift in rural, white Democrats from Obama to Trump. “Trump … appealed to some people who were once Democrats or descended from New Deal Democratic families. In Rust Belt strongholds like Mahoning County, Ohio, these voters would explain that Trump alone seemed to register their complaints in a political world that was otherwise deaf to their concerns.” Probolsky Research Newport Beach (949) 855-6400 3990 Westerly Place Suite 185 San Francisco (415) 870-8150 13 Newport Beach CA 92660 USA Washington DC (202) 559-0270

  14. In-Depth: Polling Errors in Wisconsin Wisconsin polls missed on turnout model, under-representing Trump voters. Wisconsin polls consistently underestimated turnout among Trump’s core demographics. • Men • Republicans • 45-64 Probolsky Research Newport Beach (949) 855-6400 3990 Westerly Place Suite 185 San Francisco (415) 870-8150 14 Newport Beach CA 92660 USA Washington DC (202) 559-0270

  15. Wisconsin: A Tale of Two GOP Candidates Trump, Romney finished with 1.4 million votes, but in very different ways. County ‘16 Turnout ‘12 Turnout % Trump Romney Diff. Milwaukee County 441,053 492,576 -10.5% 126,069 154,924 -19% Dane County 309,354 304,181 1.7% 71,275 83,644 -15% Waukesha County 237,593 243,856 -2.6% 142,543 162,798 -12% Brown County 129,011 128,928 0.1% 67,210 64,836 4% Racine County 94,302 103,364 -8.8% 46,681 49,347 -5% Source: WEC Canvass Reporting System Probolsky Research Newport Beach (949) 855-6400 3990 Westerly Place Suite 185 San Francisco (415) 870-8150 15 Newport Beach CA 92660 USA Washington DC (202) 559-0270

  16. Thank You. Opinion Research on Elections and Public Policy Probolsky Research Newport Beach (949) 855-6400 3990 Westerly Place Suite 185 Probolsky Research Newport Beach San Francisco (415) 870-8150 (949) 855-6400 Newport Beach CA 92660 Washington DC (202) 559-0270 3990 Westerly Place Suite 185 San Francisco (415) 870-8150 Newport Beach CA 92660 USA Washington DC (202) 559-0270

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