Dublin Unified School District Seven-Year Forecast Using Resident Student Projections and Are Based on Fall 2017 Student Data Presented by Davis Demographics & Planning, I nc. February 13, 2018
Work Accomplished by DDP for Dublin USD Set-up GIS Data Layers (including mapping 4 years of student data) Acquired latest parcel & street data from the County GIS Department Researched current and future new housing Meetings and conference calls with Planning & District Incorporated new residential development in projections Calculated specific factors for Dublin area (birth data & mobility) Updated 7-year student forecast based on recently approved elementary and middle school boundaries effective Fall 2018 Provided a Demographic Study with findings and analysis 1
Mapping the District’s Student Data The last 4 years of mapped student data were analyzed (from October). Dots are placed where students reside (geocoding) 2
2017/18 Elementary School Attendance Matrix H elps the District track its open enrollment distribution. Page 18 of the Report Also created a Middle School and a High School Matrix 3
DDP 7-Year Projection Methodology 4
Dublin Birth Data – By Zip Code Page 5 of the Report Most of Dublin Mostly Pleasanton and part of Dublin 5
DDP Projected Units for the Next 7 years for Dublin USD (2018-2024) • 1,785 Single Family Detached (SFD) units • 1,779 Multi-Family Attached (MFA) units • 1,284 Apartment (APT) rental units • 4,848 TOTAL UNITS BUILT Arrived at above figure by accomplishing the following: • site visits for all active projects throughout the District • speaking with sales reps • Meetings and conference calls with City planners, the County and District Staff • Online research (City GIS, project/developer websites, Google Earth, etc.) 6
Planned Residential Development Page 16 of the Report About 4,848 homes are expected to be built and occupied over the next seven years. 7
Planned Residential Development Over the next 7 years Page 14 of the Report Within the City, there are 19 developers building 51 housing projects which contain 4,848 new units to be built and occupied over the next seven years. 8
Student Yield Factors Student Yield Factors are used to determine how many students may possibly arrive from new housing. Housing Type Definitions: SFD – Single Family Detached MFA – Multi-Family Attached (condos, townhomes, etc.) APT – Apartments *The Student Yield Factors were calculated by Davis Demographics 9
Mobility Factors 3 Years of Change • DDP conducts historical student data comparisons for Study Areas where there are no new residential development over the past five years • DDP used 4 years of mapped student data (Fall 2014-17) and conducts annual grade transition analysis using an average – (3 years of change). • This factor helps to account for housing resales, foreclosures, apartment migration and HS dropouts. 10
Projections for Each Study Area STUDY AREA 63PROJECTION Individual projections were generated for each of the District’s 139 Study Areas 11
Projections for Each Attendance Area DOUGHERTY ES ATTENDANCE AREA Individual projections were generated for each of the District’s 8 elementary school attendance areas, as well as its 3 middle school attendance areas and 1 high school attendance area. These are simply the addition of the individual Study Area projections that make up each attendance area. 12
District-wide 7-Year Projections Page 22 of the report Huge bubble in the elementary schools, to enter Middle and High Schools Currently heavily weighted in the younger grades Impact from Mobility and Development 13
District-wide 7-Year Projections Projection Date 10/4/2017 Actual Actual Actual Actual Fall 2014 Fall 2015 Fall 2016 Fall 2017 Fall 2018 Fall 2019 Fall 2020 Fall 2021 Fall 2022 Fall 2023 Fall 2024 TK-5 4704 5136 5500 5,790.0 6,272.1 6,701.5 7,237.3 7,602.7 7,818.5 8,052.8 8,077.9 6-8 2011 2165 2289 2,468.0 2,697.2 2,996.0 3,157.1 3,385.4 3,560.9 3,734.3 3,860.0 9-12 1997 2166 2391 2,629.0 2,899.4 3,158.3 3,417.9 3,649.6 4,006.1 4,252.1 4,433.9 Special Ed.: 179 191 182 187.0 204.0 220.9 237.5 251.7 265.1 276.6 282.6 OD K-12: 242 281 246 166.0 166.0 166.0 166.0 166.0 166.0 166.0 166.0 Unmatched: 3 6 7 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 TK-12 Totals 9136 9945 10615 11,242.0 12,240.7 13,244.7 14,217.8 15,057.4 15,818.6 16,483.8 16,822.4 Annual TK-12 Change : 809 670 627.0 998.7 1,004.0 973.1 839.6 761.3 665.2 338.6 Net TK-5: 2,326.3 39.1% GREEN =Peak or HighestCount Net 6-8: 1,412.9 55.8% Net 9-12: 1,841.3 66.9% Net Growth over the next 7 years Net TK-12: 5,580.4 49.6% Through 2024-25 SY Page 22 of the report 14
Net K-5 Growth/Decline in Current Attendance Areas from 2017 to 2024 in the Dublin USD Net K-5 Growth over the next 7 years = + 2,326 Through 2024-25 SY 15
Net 6-8 Growth/Decline in the Current Attendance Areas from 2017 to 2024 in the Dublin USD Net 6-8 Growth over the next 7 years = + 1,413 Through 2024-25 SY 16
Net 9-12 Growth/Decline in the Current Attendance Areas from 2017 to 2024 in the Dublin USD Net 9-12 Growth over the next 7 years = + 1,841 Through 2024-25 SY 17
Summary (Main Issues) Net growth throughout the District over the next seven years. Student data is HEAVILY skewed towards younger grades (K through 5, right now). Student population will eventually mature and more evenly distribute among the grades starting around the next 10-15 years. There may be as many as 4,848 mixed units built over the next seven years. Based on current conditions, over the next seven years there is a need for at least one flexible K-8 site ( Aside from Cottonwood Creek School which is scheduled to open next Fall 2018). Recommended location of the K-8 site should be within the central portion of district. Definite need for a 2 nd high school over the next seven years. Most immediate concern for the District is how to house the growth in the high school grades until a second high school is built and opened. 18
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