Fremont Unified School District Enrollment Analysis October 28, - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Fremont Unified School District Enrollment Analysis October 28, 2015

Section I: Introduction Fremont Unified School District │ Enrollment Analysis and Capacity Study Board Presentation Page 1

Geographic Profile Fremont Unified School District │ Enrollment Analysis and Capacity Study Board Presentation Page 2

Section II: Overview of Historical Enrollment Fremont Unified School District │ Enrollment Analysis and Capacity Study Board Presentation Page 3

Overview of Historical Enrollment Enrollment Trends (continued) Historical District Enrollment by Grade Level 40,000 35,000 9,908 9,912 9,887 30,000 9,966 10,023 9,992 10,096 10,135 10,085 9,890 10,133 9,554 9,778 9,314 9,175 9,152 Student Enrollment 25,000 5,076 4,875 4,925 4,797 4,854 4,790 4,659 4,683 4,802 5,025 4,896 4,641 5,048 4,827 4,908 4,746 20,000 15,000 19,581 19,148 18,849 18,390 17,934 17,555 17,106 17,306 17,067 17,057 17,046 16,919 16,901 16,884 17,003 16,629 10,000 5,000 0 2000/2001 2002/2003 2004/2005 2006/2007 2008/2009 2010/2011 2012/2013 2014/2015 School Year ES Enrollment JHS Enrollment HS Enrollment Fremont Unified School District │ Enrollment Analysis and Capacity Study Board Presentation Page 4

Overview of Historical Enrollment Inter-District Transfer Trends Incoming Inter-District Transfers Item 2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014 2014/2015 2015/2016 Incoming Transfers 188 161 197 174 226 Total Enrollment 32,585 33,153 33,661 33,935 34,565 Percentage 0.58% 0.49% 0.59% 0.51% 0.65% Fremont Unified School District │ Enrollment Analysis and Capacity Study Board Presentation Page 5

Overview of Historical Enrollment Intra-District Transfer Trends Elementary Intra-District Transfers Attendance Area Chadbourne ES Ardenwood ES Forest Park ES Vallejo Mill ES Parkmont ES Total Students Mission Valley Warm Springs Brookvale ES Glenmoor ES Patterson ES Young Adult Grimmer ES Mission San Warwick ES Azevada ES Maloney ES Durham ES Cabrillo ES Oliveira ES Non-Public Blacow ES Gomes ES Weibel ES Mattos ES Millard ES Hirsch ES Leitch ES Green ES Program Living in Brier ES Jose ES Niles ES Schools School of ES ES Residence 986 Ardenwood ES 904 7 10 7 14 9 2 5 1 6 2 3 1 9 2 1 2 1 Brookvale ES 1 536 17 23 2 18 1 1 4 9 2 2 2 618 Forest Park ES 52 64 998 56 21 22 1 5 3 3 1 5 2 2 1 4 2 2 2 1,246 682 Oliveira ES 16 4 572 12 6 2 3 1 11 3 4 4 8 5 2 4 1 16 3 1 3 1 Patterson ES 3 24 1 15 558 24 1 1 2 11 1 2 54 1 2 1 1 4 11 1 1 1 1 721 1,058 Warwick ES 13 10 8 4 11 853 13 2 6 6 26 3 4 26 13 2 7 7 9 2 14 13 2 3 1 Green ES 1 2 436 49 2 1 6 14 15 12 2 1 10 3 4 1 1 1 1 1 4 1 1 569 276 Grimmer ES 1 9 220 4 2 2 12 7 2 8 1 1 3 2 1 1 671 Hirsch ES 1 1 21 50 502 3 6 32 13 17 2 2 5 4 5 1 2 1 1 1 1 Leitch/Warm 2,057 Springs 1 1 6 16 1 982 862 135 6 2 1 2 2 5 28 1 3 1 1 1 701 Weibel ES 1 11 2 1 674 1 1 1 3 3 1 1 1 Azevada ES 3 1 3 1 2 6 3 3 312 13 9 11 46 13 1 2 1 3 3 1 6 1 2 1 1 448 366 Blacow ES 2 1 4 18 10 1 1 13 254 11 1 24 11 1 1 2 1 4 3 1 2 Brier ES 1 3 1 6 2 3 22 41 682 14 36 5 7 1 2 2 1 7 1 2 3 1 843 642 Durham ES 1 1 17 9 1 2 24 25 5 482 38 7 7 2 2 2 8 1 7 1 Mattos ES 1 1 3 1 5 216 3 1 1 1 2 1 2 238 Millard ES 5 10 2 1 3 13 21 1 7 10 498 3 1 3 1 6 1 1 587 13 New S. Fremont ES 7 1 1 1 2 1 Chadbourne ES 1 1 1 1 1 3 1 1 678 5 11 1 1 1 1 708 693 Gomes ES 3 1 1 1 679 3 3 1 1 631 Mission San Jose 1 3 1 4 20 13 578 9 1 1 Mission Valley ES 1 4 1 1 4 1 1 19 15 15 619 1 682 414 Cabrillo ES 3 11 7 2 2 1 7 7 6 26 2 2 321 3 6 2 6 Glenmoor ES 3 1 1 1 8 1 17 6 1 1 30 1 5 2 19 576 18 14 5 1 711 530 Maloney ES 2 1 1 5 1 5 9 3 1 41 1 1 9 19 424 1 1 4 1 Niles ES 1 4 1 2 1 13 1 3 3 28 2 5 4 548 2 40 658 1,139 Parkmont ES 8 2 1 7 5 10 5 1 8 10 5 4 14 13 6 3 61 29 61 14 836 35 1 526 Vallejo Mill ES 1 1 3 1 4 15 8 1 14 17 5 4 2 1 8 4 4 6 7 1 416 2 1 Unassigned 1 4 8 1 1 1 1 32 3 52 100 IDT 2 5 2 2 9 1 1 22 12 1 2 11 8 2 2 1 2 1 14 Unknown 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 15 Total 989 676 1,022 720 650 926 493 471 550 1,017 886 881 604 454 755 579 615 597 787 818 624 670 483 659 591 582 895 560 17 10 19,581 Fremont Unified School District │ Enrollment Analysis and Capacity Study Board Presentation Page 6

Section III: Inputs and Methodology Fremont Unified School District │ Enrollment Analysis and Capacity Study Board Presentation Page 7

Inputs and Methodology Enrollment Projection Inputs Existing Enrollment » 2015/2016 student enrollment as provided by the School District. Cohort Survival Factors » The likelihood of a student progressing from one grade level to the next. Birth Rates » Historic and projected number of births within the School District, Alameda County, and historical averages are used to project incoming kindergarten enrollment from existing residential units. Residential Projections » Information on future residential projects was obtained from the City of Fremont. Fremont Unified School District │ Enrollment Analysis and Capacity Study Board Presentation Page 8

Inputs and Methodology Cohort Survival Factors Cohorts by High School Attendance Area Mission San From - To American HS Irvington HS Kennedy HS Jose HS Washington HS 105.69% 107.28% 100.98% 113.52% 103.03% K – 1 102.33% 101.79% 95.29% 108.17% 98.09% 1 – 2 2 – 3 102.43% 101.29% 96.63% 105.65% 98.02% 3 – 4 101.20% 99.98% 95.81% 104.03% 99.49% 4 – 5 100.79% 104.90% 97.51% 103.66% 98.60% 5 – 6 100.17% 102.13% 95.02% 102.52% 98.41% 6 – 7 97.43% 98.94% 95.33% 100.20% 95.11% 101.67% 100.72% 98.86% 99.81% 97.66% 7 – 8 104.24% 104.77% 100.30% 100.15% 104.78% 8 – 9 101.16% 98.74% 98.26% 98.72% 96.86% 9 – 10 99.05% 96.32% 94.17% 97.40% 97.12% 10 – 11 103.95% 100.24% 105.63% 98.33% 102.82% 11 – 12 Fremont Unified School District │ Enrollment Analysis and Capacity Study Board Presentation Page 9

Inputs and Methodology Birth Rates Actual Birth Rates as reported by CDPH 4,000 120.00% 3,432 3,427 3,500 3,241 3,227 3,226 100.00% 3,172 3,166 3,139 3,127 3,113 3,122 3,048 3,052 2,991 2,936 3,000 2,869 2,855 2,852 2,982 2,798 80.00% 2,695 2,418 2,419 2,500 2,617 2,601 2,479 2,455 2,269 2,000 60.00% 1,500 40.00% 1,000 20.00% 500 0 0.00% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Births[1] Kindergarten Enrollment Kindergarten Percent of Births [1] Information on actual births in ZIP codes 94536, 94538, 94539, and 94555 obtained from the California Department of Public Health (“CDPH”). Fremont Unified School District │ Enrollment Analysis and Capacity Study Board Presentation Page 10

Inputs and Methodology Student Generations Rates (“SGRs”) Single Family Detached Units SFD SGR [1] Grade Level Transitional Kindergarten 0.0061 Elementary School (K-6) 0.4037 Junior High School (7-8) 0.0832 High School (9-12) 0.1704 Total SFD SGR 0.6634 Multifamily Attached Units MFA SGR [1] Grade Level Transitional Kindergarten 0.0119 Elementary School (K-6) 0.1996 Junior High School (7-8) 0.0455 High School (9-12) 0.0632 Total MFA SGR 0.3202 [1] Calculated in October 2015 in preparation of FUSD’s 2016 School Facilities Needs Analysis. Fremont Unified School District │ Enrollment Analysis and Capacity Study Board Presentation Page 11

Inputs and Methodology Future Residential Development Projected Annual Residential Development [1] MFA Units Year SFD Units Total 2015 139 191 330 2016 158 721 879 2017 188 1,294 1,482 2018 177 1,847 2,024 2019 97 1,610 1,707 2020 97 1,210 1,307 2021 0 820 820 2022 0 619 619 2023 0 619 619 Total 856 8,931 9,787 [1] Based on information obtained from the City of Fremont.. Fremont Unified School District │ Enrollment Analysis and Capacity Study Board Presentation Page 12

Inputs and Methodology Future Residential Development Map Fremont Unified School District │ Enrollment Analysis and Capacity Study Board Presentation Page 13

Section IV: Districtwide Enrollment Projection Fremont Unified School District │ Enrollment Analysis and Capacity Study Board Presentation Page 14