Pottsgrove Pottsgrove School District School District Enrollment - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

POTTSGROVE SCHOOL DISTRICT Pottsgrove Pottsgrove School District School District Enrollment Projection Study Enrollment Projection Study February 28, 2017 February 28, 2017

POTTSGROVE SCHOOL DISTRICT Future Think in operation for over 10 years. • Tracy Healy, Owner & President • Woman-owned business, EDGE certified • Has worked with over 1,000 districts nationwide • Specializes in enrollment projection and demographic studies • Provides a national perspective with numerous case studies & lessons learned Our mission is to empower the people and communities with whom we work—enhancing the educational experience through planning.

POTTSGROVE SCHOOL DISTRICT Future Think Long-Term EP Clients • Ohio School Facilities Commission – 18 years • Olentangy Local Schools, OH – 18 years • Williamsburg-James County City Public Schools, VA – 10 years • North Royalton City Schools, OH – 10 years • New Albany-Plain Local Schools, OH – 8 years Several “repeat” customers as well, including Pottsgrove.

POTTSGROVE SCHOOL DISTRICT Enrollment Projection Considerations • Historical Enrollment • Birth Data • General Population Demographics • Housing Development • Survival Ratios Pottsgrove School District Historical Enrollment 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0

POTTSGROVE SCHOOL DISTRICT pp. 4-7 Methodology • Developed District-Wide Projections First • Started with the cohort as primary method • Incorporated housing development into the cohort through development of projection ratios • Then Developed By School Projections • Compared and Reconciled with District-Wide Enrollment Projections are both a Science and an Art.

POTTSGROVE SCHOOL DISTRICT p. 9 Historical Enrollment – over past 10 years, increase of 3%; over last 5 years, approximately 1%. Pottsgrove School District Historical Enrollment Grade 2007 ‐ 08 2008 ‐ 09 2009 ‐ 10 2010 ‐ 11 2011 ‐ 12 2012 ‐ 13 2013 ‐ 14 2014 ‐ 15 2015 ‐ 16 2016 ‐ 17 K 252 235 255 247 226 243 243 258 253 243 1 249 250 245 277 253 246 256 248 252 258 2 218 241 246 247 266 247 248 251 241 262 3 231 238 236 238 241 267 229 249 253 251 4 207 249 245 248 250 251 255 229 244 253 5 197 238 259 239 236 245 242 255 235 255 6 242 239 241 263 240 246 237 247 257 234 7 236 251 242 248 260 241 241 241 260 257 8 307 241 250 246 254 258 244 243 244 249 9 252 324 244 262 244 249 259 249 239 236 10 276 254 319 248 258 238 254 260 259 243 11 251 223 258 320 241 261 228 251 253 261 12 247 202 275 259 332 241 260 233 256 263 K ‐ 12 Total 3,165 3,185 3,315 3,342 3,301 3,233 3,196 3,214 3,246 3,265 Source: Pottsgrove School District

POTTSGROVE SCHOOL DISTRICT p. 9 Historical Enrollment • K-2 – peaked this year at 763 • 3-5 – peaked in 2012-13 at 763 • 6-8 – peaked in 2007-08 at 785 • 9-12 – peaked in 2009-10 at 1,096 Pottsgrove School District Historical Enrollment by Grade Group Grade 2007 ‐ 08 2008 ‐ 09 2009 ‐ 10 2010 ‐ 11 2011 ‐ 12 2012 ‐ 13 2013 ‐ 14 2014 ‐ 15 2015 ‐ 16 2016 ‐ 17 K ‐ 2 719 726 746 771 745 736 747 757 746 763 3 ‐ 5 635 725 740 725 727 763 726 733 732 759 6 ‐ 8 785 731 733 757 754 745 722 731 761 740 9 ‐ 12 1,026 1,003 1,096 1,089 1,075 989 1,001 993 1,007 1,003 K ‐ 12 Total 3,165 3,185 3,315 3,342 3,301 3,233 3,196 3,214 3,246 3,265 Source: Pottsgrove School District

POTTSGROVE SCHOOL DISTRICT p. 11 Birth Counts– low of 237 in 2014. Peaked in 2009 at 304. The 2011 count (this year’s K) was 260. Pottsgrove School District Live Birth Count 2000 ‐ 2014 Lower Upper West Total # of Year Pottsgrove Pottsgrove Pottsgrove Live Births Township Township Township 2000 148 54 39 241 2001 153 50 43 246 2002 176 75 47 298 2003 151 55 46 252 2004 159 62 43 264 2005 172 63 44 279 2006 178 69 41 288 2007 175 53 61 289 2008 158 65 60 283 2009 176 68 60 304 2010 150 65 61 276 2011 141 70 49 260 2012 151 80 54 285 2013 149 75 48 272 2014 135 59 43 237 Source: Pennsylvania Dept. of Health, Health Statistics & Research

POTTSGROVE SCHOOL DISTRICT p. 12 Demographics– general indicators of growth and wealth. General Demographic Information Montgomery Pennsylvania County Per Capita Income $41,699 $28,912 Median Household Income $79,926 $53,115 Persons Below Poverty 6.4% 13.5% Source: US Census, American Community Survey, 2014 5 ‐ Year Estimates Total Population 2000 Census 2010 Census 2015 Estimate Montgomery County 750,977 799,874 812,970 Pottstown Borough 21,859 22,377 22,586 Lower Pottsgrove Township 11,213 12,059 12,153 Upper Pottsgrove Township 4,102 5,315 5,399 West Pottsgrove Township 3,815 3,874 3,890 Source: US Census, Census 2000 Summary File 1, 2010 Demographic Profile, 2015 ACS 5 ‐ Year Estimates

POTTSGROVE SCHOOL DISTRICT p. 14 ESRI Projections – .6% increase for ages 0-18 Pottsgrove School District 2016 Estimates 2021 Projections Change 2016 ‐ 21 Change 2016 ‐ 21 (%) Total Population 21,724 22,151 427 2.0% Age 0 ‐ 4 1,433 1,393 ‐ 40 ‐ 2.8% Age 5 ‐ 9 1,522 1,465 ‐ 57 ‐ 3.7% Age 10 ‐ 14 1,504 1,588 84 5.6% Age 15 ‐ 18 1,074 1,119 45 4.2% Total Age 0 ‐ 18 5,533 5,565 32 0.6% Median Age 39.4 40.0 0.6 1.5% Source: ESRI

POTTSGROVE SCHOOL DISTRICT p. 15 ESRI Projections –Income, total family households and family size all projected to increase. Pottsgrove School District 2016 Estimates 2021 Projections Change 2016 ‐ 21 Change 2016 ‐ 21 (%) Median Household Income $79,741 $87,912 $8,171 10.2% Average Household Income $91,562 $99,540 $7,978 8.7% Average Family Size 3.14 3.15 0.01 0.3% Total Family Households 5,875 5,951 76 1.3% Source: ESRI

POTTSGROVE SCHOOL DISTRICT p. 16 Population Projections, Total Population Growth/Decline Red – <=0% (decline) Orange – 0.1–2% Yellow – 2.1–4% Light Green – 4.1-6% Dark Green – 6%+

POTTSGROVE SCHOOL DISTRICT p. 17 Population Projections, Ages 5-18 Growth/Decline Red – <=8%+ (loss) Orange – 7.9–4% (loss) Yellow – 3.9-0% (loss) Light Green – 0.1-4% Medium Green – 4.1-8% Dark Green – 8%+

POTTSGROVE SCHOOL DISTRICT p. 18 Population Projections, 2016 Median Age Dark Green – <35 Light Green – 35.1 – 40.0 Yellow – 40.1 – 45.0 Orange – 45.1 – 50.0 Red – >50

POTTSGROVE SCHOOL DISTRICT p. 19 Population Projections, 2021 Median Age Dark Green – <35 Light Green – 35.1 – 40.0 Yellow – 40.1 – 45.0 Orange – 45.1 – 50.0 Red – >50

POTTSGROVE SCHOOL DISTRICT p. 20 Population Projections, 2016 Median Household Income Red – <$60,000 Orange – $60,001-$70K Yellow – $70,001-$80k Light Green – $80,001-$90k Medium Green – $90,001- $100K Dark Green - >$100,000

POTTSGROVE SCHOOL DISTRICT p. 21 Population Projections, 2021 Median Household Income Red – <$60,000 Orange – $60,001-$70K Yellow – $70,001-$80k Light Green – $80,001-$90k Medium Green – $90,001- $100K Dark Green - >$100,000

POTTSGROVE SCHOOL DISTRICT p. 22 Building Permits – Total peaked in 2006, but signs of recovery over the past 4 years. # of Building Permits Issued for Single Family Dwellings Year Pottstown Borough Lower Pottsgrove Twp. Upper Pottsgrove Twp. West Pottsgrove Twp. Montgomery County 2006 54 42 48 3 1,911 2007 29 33 40 1 1,599 2008 25 7 37 0 1,274 2009 0 4 40 0 643 2010 26 2 3 0 879 2011 2 33 1 0 668 2012 41 7 2 0 915 2013 46 3 3 1 1,000 2014 21 1 17 0 892 2015 19 0 32 1 1,006 2016* 9 0 14 0 865 Source: SOCDS Building Permits Database * through October 2016

POTTSGROVE SCHOOL DISTRICT p. 22 Housing Development Projects • Saratoga Green – 503 units • 171 studio & 1 bedroom apartments • 172 two-bedroom apartments • 160 three-bedroom townhomes • Spring Valley Farms – 178 units • 3-4 bedroom homes • Upper Pottsgrove – 58 units • No approvals in place at this time.