Demographic and Labor Market Trend in Western Upper Peninsula - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Demographic and Labor Market Trend in Western Upper Peninsula (Baraga, Gogebic, Houghton, Iron, Keweenaw, & Ontonagon) State of Michigan Department of Technology, Management, and Budget Bureau of Labor Market Information and Strategic Initiatives Eric Guthrie, State Demographer Leonidas Murembya, Regional Research Coordinator

The Bureau of Labor Market Information and Strategic Initiatives 2  We are the official source for high quality demographic and labor market information for the state of Michigan and its regions.  We administer the state’s federal-state cooperative programs with the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Census Bureau and produce high- quality information and analysis through grants from the U.S. Department of Labor and from partner agencies in the state of Michigan.  We provide our national, state, and local partners and customers with accurate, objective, reliable, timely, accessible, and transparent information and insights.

Presentation Outline  Population Characteristics and Trends (Eric)  Census and estimates  Characteristics (gender, age, etc.)  Components of change  Natural increase  Migration (domestic)  Age Structure and Population Momentum  Workers Commuting Patterns (Eric)  Labor Force Trend (Leo)  Industry Employment (Leo)  Workers Characteristics (Leo)  Occupational Wages & Job Projections (Leo)

Regional Population Breakdown 2,168 3% 6,007 8,575 Baraga 7% 11% Gogebic 11,348 15,431 14% Houghton 19% Iron Keweenaw 36,380 Ontonagon 46%

Region Population Trend 88,000 86,878 87,000 86,000 85,000 85,293 84,000 82,452 83,000 82,000 82,833 81,000 80,000 80,662 79,000 78,000 77,000

Region Population Trend 88,000 43 87,000 42 85,293 86,000 41 86,878 85,000 40 84,000 39 80,662 83,000 84,096 38 82,000 37 81,000 82,452 36 80,000 35 79,000 34 78,000 77,000 33

Births 2010-2014 1000 950 900 850 789 800 727 726 750 699 698 700 650 600 550 500 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Deaths 2010-2014 1250 1200 1150 1100 1017 1050 971 965 1000 963 950 887 900 850 800 750 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Natural Decrease 2010-2014 0 -50 -98 -100 -150 -200 -245 -265 -266 -290 -250 -300 -350 -400 -450 -500 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Population Pyramids

Population Pyramids

Population Pyramids

Region Population Structure

Region Population Structure

Sex Ratios Geography Males per 100 Females United States 96.8 Michigan 96.4 Baraga County, Michigan 156.4 Gogebic County, Michigan 115.1 Houghton County, Michigan 119.2 Iron County, Michigan 97.4 Keweenaw County, Michigan 115.0 Ontonagon County, Michigan 106.9

Intrastate Migration

Interstate Migration (Domestic)

Migration Summary Migration Area Net Migration Migration Flows (Gross) Intrastate 1,033 5,057 Interstate -927 4,389 Net 106 (X)

Top and Bottom Domestic Migration States State Net Migration Gross Flow Wisconsin ‐ 403 1559 Arizona ‐ 169 261 California ‐ 150 230 Colorado ‐ 110 110 Nevada 98 98 New York 58 58 South Carolina 40 40 North Carolina 29 37

Break Down of Regional In-Migrants Level of Educational Attainment Percent of In-Migrants Less than high school graduate 10.9% High school graduate (includes equivalency) 47.6% Some college or associate’s degree 31.2% Bachelor’s degree 9.1% Graduate or professional degree 1.3%

Where the Regions Residents Work County State Jobs Percent Houghton MI 9,645 37.10% Gogebic MI 3,734 14.40% Iron MI 2,793 10.70% Baraga MI 2,335 9.00% Ontonagon MI 1,636 6.30% Marquette MI 1,053 4.00% Keweenaw MI 705 2.70% Iron WI 631 2.40% Dickinson MI 434 1.70% Wayne MI 416 1.60% Menominee MI 140 0.50% Oakland MI 121 0.50% Delta MI 120 0.50% Vilas WI 114 0.40% Chippewa MI 102 0.40% Alger MI 89 0.30% Oneida WI 87 0.30%

The Daily Commute Employed in Region, Live elsewhere 5,215 20,793 7,277 Employed in Region, Live in Region Employed outside Region, Live in Region

Western UP Labor Force and Unemployment  Labor Force Stable  Unemployment Substantially Down After Recession

Where Do I Find Data on the Labor Force in my County?  Civilian labor force : employed and unemployed State and Regions (Counties, and Cities and Townships with a population of 25,000 or more):  Click on the “Data Tools” tab for customized employment & unemployment data. You can select employment or unemployment under “category” and then follow the onscreen instructions  Click on the tab “Employment/Unemployment, and under “Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)”, select “Unemployment by County” to see the labor force, employed, unemployed, and the jobless rate for the most recent month and for every county and Michigan. This data is searchable by county (for example).  Nation and Other States: www.bls.gov/lau

Area Unemployment Rate Follows State’s Rate Area Unemployment Trend 2000 ‐ 15 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% Unemployment Rate 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Michigan Western Central Eastern

Area Labor Force Continues to Decline After the Recent Great Recession Labor Force Index, Base Year = 2000 4% 2% 0% ‐ 2% ‐ 4% ‐ 6% ‐ 8% ‐ 10% ‐ 12% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Michigan Western Central Eastern

Household Employment More Stable than Statewide Employment Index, Base Year = 2000 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% -12% -14% -16% -18% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Michigan Western Central Eastern

Where to Find Information on Industries Industry jobs Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages (QCEW or ES- 202) Quarterly estimates for Michigan, MSAs, regions & counties Number of establishments, jobs, total payroll, & average weekly wage

Government and Retail Have the Highest Shares of Payroll Jobs in Western UP Government 17% Retail 17% Private Healthcare Hotels and Restaurants Manufacturing Construction Other Private Services Professional Services Financial Agriculture Wholesale Real Estate Admin Support & Waste Mgt Information Arts and Recreation Transportation Utilities Private Education 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% Michigan Western

Payroll Jobs Have Steadily Declined in Western UP , since 2000 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Western Central Eastern Michigan

Most Private Industries Show Job Cuts Since 2000 30% Healthcare 20% 10% 0% Construction Manufacturing ‐ 10% ‐ 20% Retail Trade ‐ 30% ‐ 40% Hotels and Restaurants ‐ 50% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Total Government Jobs Have Also Trended Downward 15% 10% State 5% 0% Federal -5% Total -10% -15% Local -20% -25% -30% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Total Federal State Local

Workers Characteristics, 2014 Jobs by Worker Race, Educational Attainment, and Sex Count Share • The majority of workers in 24,065 93.6% White Alone Western UP are white (94%). 526 2.0% Black or African American Alone 658 2.6% • Only 1.2% of workers are American Indian or Alaska Native Alone 168 0.7% Asian Alone Hispanic. Room for 8 0.0% Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander Alone improvement. 285 1.1% Two or More Race Groups • Very interesting fact is the Jobs by Worker Ethnicity percent of workers with some 25,392 98.8% Not Hispanic or Latino 318 1.2% Hispanic or Latino college,, an associate’s or a Jobs by Worker Educational Attainment bachelor’s degree or higher 1,686 6.6% Less than high school (over 44 percent). This is 7,070 27.5% High school or equivalent, no college explained by the high share of 7,252 28.2% Some college or Associate degree 4,258 16.6% government jobs, and Bachelor's degree or advanced degree 5,444 21.2% Educational attainment not available (workers aged 29 or particularly in higher education. younger) Jobs by Worker Sex 12,655 49.2% Male 13,055 50.8% Female Source : U. S. Census Bureau, Local Employment Dynamics (LED), 2014