David McPhee Labour Market Statistician, Scottish Executive
What is the issue? ● Scotland has one of the highest proportions of NEET in Europe Proportion of 15-19 Year Old NEET, 2004 12.0 10.0 Percnetage NEET 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 m l c d c d m g d d n y d a a s y n y s d k a e a e i n i r n i l n e r e n n d n n r o l i d i l c g a a c b l u u r a b a a a d a a a a a a t t n n a u d t e i p u a g u o I s l g m l l r e a l m a l l g e n r n t t S e t t e b o p u n p l o r e S w l s a r e n n r i r r c P o r e A u e m G z F F c I u e e i C S B I e P K R t d H R S A h e i G D w e t x d k h e t S u a i e c n N L t v e U i n o z U l C S Country
What is the issue? ● Approximately 36,000 NEET (14%). Not Changed significantly over last 10 years 16-19 Year Old NEET, Scotland and the UK 18% 16% 14% Percentage NEET 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Year Scotland UK
What is the issue? ● The NEET Group is not a homogenous group Breakdown of the NEET Group, 2005 Other Inactive 11% Looking after family/home 10% Sick/Disabled 15% Unemployed 64%
What is the issue? ● Some Key Subgroups are: � Care leavers – At 31 March 2005, 59% of care leavers whose economic status was known were reported as being NEET � Carers – 1,898 16-19 year olds are young carers and NEET � Young Parents – in 2002/03 there were 8,519 teenage pregnancies among 16-19 year olds
What is the issue? � Young Offenders – 63% of young offenders were unemployed at time of arrest � Low Attainment – 32% of the NEET group had no qualifications in 2005 compared to 11% of all 16-19 year olds � Persistent truants – Research shows truancy linked to possible future NEET � Physical/Mental Health problems – 15% of NEET group inactive due to health problem � Drug or Alcohol Abuse – Approx 1,100 under 19’s in contact with drug treatment services.
What is the issue? ● The NEET Group is not a static group. ● 38.8% of school leavers in negative destinations in October were in positive destinations by Feb/Mar ● This varied by Local Authority ● Full follow up of school leavers planned to see capture the number moving from positive to negative destination
What is the issue?
What is the issue? ● Not All those in the NEET group will Require Support 16-19 NEET 34,600 Unemployed Inactive 19,900 14,700 6 months+ < 6 months Other Sick/Disabled Family/Home 7,400 12,500 6,600 3,900 4,200 No Want Want 3,300 3,300 Support No Support 1,200 2,100
Measurement I ssues ● Main Source for measurement is the Labour Force Survey/Annual Population Survey ● LFS/APS unlikely to detect small changes in the level of the NEET group ● Sample survey – very little reliable data at Local Authority Level for NEET. ● Census is used for detailed analysis but now 5 years out of date
Measurement I ssues ● TERU report (Commissioned by SE) on measurement published in July 2006 ● Recommendations: ● Until the administrative database comes on stream, a suitable approach to monitoring change in the NEET group at the Scottish level is as follows. � Use the APS to generate estimates for the total numbers in the NEET group at a point in time, but indicating clearly that the true number sits within a range due to sampling errors. � To monitor changes in the NEET group over time use the DWP/School Leaver Destinations Survey data. Although this would be restricted to annual comparisons based on a single month, there is reasonable security that movements over time would reflect real changes given the close to 100% coverage.
Measurement I ssues Estimate of NEET group not counted in SLDR or Estimate (School Leavers + DWP) DWP 26,810 7,790 School leavers NEET DWP benefits claimants 11,310 15,500 Unemployed Not Job Incapacity Lone Other Unemployed Seeking/ Unknown Seekers benefits parents benefits & Seeking 3,960 7,960 4,130 2,590 820 7,350
NEET Hot Spots ● Although the NEET strategy is for Scotland 7 areas were picked for early targeting ● These areas were chosen using 5 indicators: NEET from the Census, School leavers destinations, 16-19 benefit rates, exclusion rates & attendance rates ● The 7 Areas chosen were: Glasgow, North Ayrshire, Dundee, East Ayrshire, West Dunbartonshire, Clackmannanshire & Inverclyde ● These areas all have relatively high proportions of deprived areas according to SIMD 2006
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