Dark Matter 2017-2037 Very Biased Futurism Gordan Krnjaic DM Working Group, April 20, 2017 1
Bad news: DM-SM interactions are not obligatory Challenge Accepted (w/ caveats) If nature is unkind, we may never know the right scale must be composite must be bosonic m P l ∼ 10 − 20 eV ∼ 100 M � ∼ 10 19 GeV ∼ 100 eV m DM Good news: most discoverable DM candidates are in thermal equilibrium with us in the early universe Why is this good news? 15 2
Bad news: DM-SM interactions are not obligatory Challenge Accepted (w/ caveats) If nature is unkind, we may never know the right scale must be composite must be bosonic m P l ∼ 10 − 20 eV ∼ 100 M � ∼ 10 19 GeV ∼ 100 eV m DM 1) Non-gravitational DM interactions are optional Good news: most discoverable DM candidates are in 2) Require model hypothesis for discovery thermal equilibrium with us in the early universe 3) Searches reflect past/present theory priors Why is this good news? 15 3
Bad news: DM-SM interactions are not obligatory Challenge Accepted (w/ caveats) If nature is unkind, we may never know the right scale must be composite must be bosonic m P l ∼ 10 − 20 eV ∼ 100 M � ∼ 10 19 GeV ∼ 100 eV m DM 1) Non-gravitational DM interactions are optional Good news: most discoverable DM candidates are in 2) Require model hypothesis for discovery thermal equilibrium with us in the early universe 3) Searches reflect past/present theory priors Why is this good news? This talk: some representative extrapolations of recent work 15 Bias towards novel, concrete ideas (except your favorite!) Everything subject to violent revolution! 4
Organizing Principle for Progress Estimated impact of a new search strategy Impact = Prob . (DM scenario) × Coverage(Technology) New parameter space Probability a given DM scenario is realized in nature covered by given search Nobody agrees here Everybody agrees here Imperfect measure, but gives rough intuition 5
Many Paths Forward Cosmic exploration, no brainer: study actual DM! Prob . (DM exists) = 1 − ✏ ( ✏ ⌧ 1) Traditional searches++ bigger, better, faster… Prob . (WIMP / Axion / RH ν ) ∼ 10 − 1 − 10 − 2 Emerging searches for new/overlooked ideas Prob . (WIMPy / ALP) ∼ 10 − 2 − 10 − 3 Applying awesome technology to exotics Prob . (pBH / topological defect ... ) ∼ 10 − 4 − 10 − 5 6
Many Paths Forward Cosmic exploration, no brainer: study actual DM! Prob . (DM exists) = 1 − ✏ ( ✏ ⌧ 1) Traditional searches++ bigger, better, faster… Prob . (WIMP / Axion / RH ν ) ∼ 10 − 1 − 10 − 2 Emerging searches for new/overlooked ideas Prob . (WIMPy / ALP) ∼ 10 − 2 − 10 − 3 Applying awesome technology to exotics Prob . (pBH / topological defect ... ) ∼ 10 − 4 − 10 − 5 7
Cosmic Surveys S-IV 10 3 . 2 2 . 8 − 10 Cetus Stellar Density (arcmin − 2 ) J0117-1725 NGC 1407 2 . 4 NGC 247 NGC 1395 NGC 253 Dec (deg) J0531-2801 2 . 0 − 30 Sculptor Fornax NGC 1399 1 . 6 NGC 300 J0344.3-4331 NGC 55 Phoenix J2038-4609 J2204-4626 DES 1 Hor II J0443.8-5017 − 50 1 . 2 Kim 2 J0222.7-5217 Ret II Hor I J2339.9-5424 Gru I Carina J2251.2-5836 J2356-5935 J0345-6026 0 . 8 J0002-6051 J2337-6316 Tucana LMC − 70 0 . 4 SMC 90 60 30 0 − 30 − 60 RA (deg) Dwarf galaxies, cluster mergers, strong/micro lensing, DM distribution (self-interactions?) Successors: LSST, WFIRST, DESI, Euclid… See Alex & Ting’s talk DES Collaboration 1601.00329 8
Strong Lensing & Substructure 2 10 1 10 1 10 M < 5 × 10 7 M ⊙ (2) 0 10 M < 5 × 10 6 M ⊙ ic P ( k ) [pc 2 ] 0 P ( k ) [pc 2 ] h 10 − 1 10 w − 2 10 ly − 3 e − 1 NFW R s = R ti d a l / 4 10 10 or NFW R ti d a l → R ti d a l / 4 − 4 ), 10 Holder et. al. point masses nt NFW R s = R ti d a l / 8 1403.2720 − 5 at 10 − 2 ∆ α = 0 . 5 10 re − 6 10 e k [pc − 1 ] 10 − 4 10 − 3 10 − 2 10 − 1 10 − 4 10 − 3 y h k [pc − 1 ] s. Statistically detect unresolved DM substructure Coverage ∼ 3 σ + (substructure evidence) T ∼ 1 − 10 yr . ALMA 9
Future CMB Potpourri 10 − 23 Planck TT,TE,EE+lowP WMAP9 Important Neff Benchmark CVL Possible interpretations for: 10 − 24 f e ff � σ v � [cm 3 s − 1 ] AMS-02/Fermi/Pamela δ N S 4 e ff < 0 . 02 − 0 . 03 Fermi GC 10 − 25 any* light species in equilib. Thermal relic 10 − 26 δ N BSM Planck ‘15 & 0 . 027 10 − 27 e ff 1 10 100 1000 10000 m χ [GeV] Annihilation bounds Tensor modes constrain axion DM Coverage ∼ few − 10 ◆ 5 / 6 ✓ 0 . 1 ✓ ◆ Ω a , QCD f a . 10 − 12 10 16 GeV Ω DM r T ∼ 5 − 20 yr . CMB S4 Collaboration 1610.02743 10
Many Paths Forward Cosmic exploration, no brainer: study actual DM! Prob . (DM exists) = 1 − ✏ ( ✏ ⌧ 1) Traditional searches++ bigger, better, faster… Prob . (WIMP / Axion / RH ν ) ∼ 10 − 1 − 10 − 2 Emerging searches for new/overlooked ideas Prob . (WIMPy / ALP) ∼ 10 − 2 − 10 − 3 Applying awesome technology to exotics Prob . (pBH / topological defect ... ) ∼ 10 − 4 − 10 − 5 11
Nuclear Recoil Direct Detection SuperCDMS Soudan Low Threshold XENON 10 S2 (2013) -37 10 � 39 CDMS-II Ge Low Threshold (2011) 10 � 3 10 -2 SuperCDMS Si HV 2 =10 CoGeNT g n /m φ DAMIC100 PICO250-C3F8 (2012) -3 10 � 40 10 � 4 -38 2 =10 NEWS - H CDMS Si 10 (2013) g n /m φ 2 ) 1 NEWS - He 0 2 ( E 10 � 41 L WIMP � nucleon cross section � cm 2 � P 10 � 5 M COUPP (2012) S I WIMP � nucleon cross section � pb � NEWS - Ne DAMA ZEPLIN-III (2012) -39 10 10 � 42 CRESST 10 � 6 CDMS II Ge (2009) S u p SuperCDMS Soudan e r 1 1 ) C 0 ( 2 S -40 10 � 43 D S 10 � 7 E I W M E L 10 D Xenon100 (2012) E S SNOLAB N DarkSide 50 2 ] E U T 10 � 44 R I N 10 � 8 σ [cm -4 Current LUX O C 2 =10 -41 PICO250-CF3I 7 Be T 10 C A T E O H T S R E R E N g n /m φ Neutrinos I N G 8 B Constraints 10 � 45 10 � 9 Xenon1T Neutrinos 0 0 6 3 P DarkSide G2 -42 A E D 10 10 � 46 10 � 10 LZ -5 -6 2 =10 2 =10 10 � 47 10 � 11 -43 (Green&ovals)&Asymmetric&DM&& 10 g n /m φ g n /m φ (Violet&oval)&Magne7c&DM& G T TERI N A C (Blue&oval)&Extra&dimensions&& Atmospheric and DSNB Neutrinos T S 10 � 48 R E N 10 � 12 E H O (Red&circle)&SUSY&MSSM& C O I N -44 R U T N E 10 &&&&&MSSM:&Pure&Higgsino&& 10 � 49 10 � 13 &&&&&MSSM:&A&funnel& Coherent Neutrino Bckg. &&&&&MSSM:&BinoEstop&coannihila7on& &&&&&MSSM:&BinoEsquark&coannihila7on& -45 10 10 � 50 10 � 14 0.1 1 10 & 1 10 100 1000 10 4 m X [GeV] WIMP Mass � GeV � c 2 � Expanding to lower masses & neutrino floor Super CDMS, Pico DAMIC, LUX, PandaX, Xenon NT… See Lauren/Hugh’s talks Prob . (WIMP or similar) ∼ 10 − 1 − 10 − 2 Coverage ∼ 10 3 − 10 4 Snowmass 1310.8327 T ∼ 0 − 10 yr . Profumo 1507.07531 12
High Energy Colliders HL-LHC, ILC, FCC, 100 TeV mono-X searches Collider Limits wino disappearing tracks 100 TeV higgsino 14 TeV ~ ~ mixed ( B / H ) Low, Wang 1504.07237 ~ ~ mixed ( B / W ) gluino coan. stop coan. squark coan. 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 m [TeV] ∼ χ Prob . (WIMP or similar) ∼ 10 − 1 − 10 − 2 Coverage ∼ few − 10 1 T ∼ 0 − 20 + yr . Fox, Harnik,Kopp,Tsai 1103.0240 Goodman,Ibe, Rajaraman, Shepherd,Tait, Yu 1008.1783 13
Axion Detection R r a h B 0 p J e ff = g a γγ 2 ρ DM cos( m a t ) B 0 . ν = � � / � π �� ��� ��� ��� ������ � ��� = � �� � � = � � � �� - �� ������ � ��� = �� �� � � = � � � ������ � ��� = � �� � � = ��� � � ���� � ��� = � �� � � = � � � ���� � ��� = �� �� � � = � � � �� - �� ���� � ��� = � �� � � = ��� � � � � γγ ( ��� - � ) �� - �� �� - �� �� - �� Prob . (Axion DM) ∼ 10 − 2 − 10 − 3 �� - �� �� �� �� �� �� �� �� �� � � ( ��� ) Coverage ∼ 10 3 − 10 7 �� - �� �� - �� �� - �� �� - � �� - � � � ( �� ) T ∼ few − 10 yr . Kahn, Safdi, Thaler 1602.01086 14
Axion Detection frequency � Hz � 10 2 10 4 10 6 10 8 10 10 10 12 10 14 New Force 10 � 4 10 � 6 10 � 8 SN 1987A 10 � 10 g aNN � GeV � 1 � ADMX 10 � 12 ALP DM 10 � 14 10 � 16 QCD Axion 10 � 18 10 � 20 10 � 14 10 � 12 10 � 10 10 � 8 10 � 6 10 � 4 10 � 2 10 0 mass � eV � see Aaron’s talk Prob . (Axion DM) ∼ 10 − 2 − 10 − 3 Coverage ∼ 10 3 − 10 7 Graham, Rajendran 1306.6088 T ∼ few − 10 yr . Bunker et. al. (CASPEr) 1306.6089 15
Many Paths Forward Cosmic exploration, no brainer: study actual DM! Prob . (DM exists) = 1 − ✏ ( ✏ ⌧ 1) Traditional searches++ bigger, better, faster… Prob . (WIMP / Axion / RH ν ) ∼ 10 − 1 − 10 − 2 Emerging searches for new/overlooked ideas Prob . (WIMPy / ALP) ∼ 10 − 2 − 10 − 3 Applying awesome technology to exotics Prob . (pBH / topological defect ... ) ∼ 10 − 4 − 10 − 5 16
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