14th European Round Table on Coal Coal to Liquid Fuels, Natural Gas & Chemicals: A Global Perspective Serge Périneau 14 th European Round Table on Coal – May 31, 2011 www.world-ctl.com 1
Coal to Fluid Hydrocarbons • Framework – Energy Security – Technologies – Environment – Economics • Current Development – Commercial Units – Projects – International Co-operation 14 th European Round Table on Coal – May 31, 2011 www.world-ctl.com 2
Coal Conversion Energy Security 14 th European Round Table on Coal – May 31, 2011 www.world-ctl.com 3
A Growing Demand in Oil, whatever IEA scenario Oil consumption forecast (Mt/year) 5,500 Rail Marine Aviation Heavy duty o i r a n e c 5,000 s e c n Transport e r Light duty e f e R 4,500 Industry 450 ppm scenario 2011 2010 Power Residential 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 1985 1985 2007 2030 2030 Source: IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2009 14 th European Round Table on Coal – May 31, 2011 www.world-ctl.com 4
Oil, Gas and Coal: Reserves BP Statistics - 2010 Annual Report Years Source: BP Statistical Review 2010 Coal reserves modified for China, Indonesia, Mongolia 14 th European Round Table on Coal – May 31, 2011 www.world-ctl.com 5
Oil, Gas and Coal: Reserves + 10% of Resources 2010 Annual Report (BGR) Energy unit: Gt Oil equivalent Years 10% resources 10% resources Reserves Reserves Source: BGR Annual report (2010) 14 th European Round Table on Coal – May 31, 2011 www.world-ctl.com 6
A major energy security stake proved reserves Ratio Years consumption Source: BP Statistical Review 2010 Coal reserves modified for China, Indonesia, Mongolia 14 th European Round Table on Coal – May 31, 2011 www.world-ctl.com 7
Coal Conversion Technology 14 th European Round Table on Coal – May 31, 2011 www.world-ctl.com 8
Technologies: conventional conversion routes Great Plains, ND (USA) Indirect routes Natural Gas Methanation Synthetic gas - CO+H2 Lu’An (China) Gasification Fischer-Tropsch Liquid Fuels Refining Surface/ Underground Secunda (RSA) Yitai (China) Coal Liquid Fuels Methanol Methanol To Gasoline Jamg (Shanxi, China) Petrochemicals Methanol To Olefins Direct route Baotou (I. Mongolia) Liquid Fuels Dissolution Liquefaction Hydrotreatment Refining Majiata (Inner Mongolia) 14 th European Round Table on Coal – May 31, 2011 www.world-ctl.com 9
Technologies: conventional conversion routes Indirect routes Synthetic gas - CO+H2 Lu’An (China) Gasification Fischer-Tropsch Liquid Fuels Refining Surface/ Underground Secunda (RSA) Yitai (China) Coal 14 th European Round Table on Coal – May 31, 2011 www.world-ctl.com 10
Technologies: conventional conversion routes Indirect routes Synthetic gas - CO+H2 Gasification Surface/ Underground Coal Liquid Fuels Methanol Methanol To Gasoline Jamg (Shanxi, China) 14 th European Round Table on Coal – May 31, 2011 www.world-ctl.com 11
Technologies: conventional conversion routes Indirect routes Synthetic gas - CO+H2 Gasification Surface/ Underground Coal Methanol Petrochemicals Methanol To Olefins Baotou (I. Mongolia) 14 th European Round Table on Coal – May 31, 2011 www.world-ctl.com 12
Technologies: conventional conversion routes Great Plains, ND (USA) Indirect routes Natural Gas Methanation Synthetic gas - CO+H2 Gasification Surface/ Underground Coal 14 th European Round Table on Coal – May 31, 2011 www.world-ctl.com 13
Technologies: conventional conversion routes Indirect routes Synthetic gas - CO+H2 Gasification Surface/ Underground Coal Direct route Liquid Fuels Dissolution Liquefaction Hydrotreatment Refining Majiata (Inner Mongolia) 14 th European Round Table on Coal – May 31, 2011 www.world-ctl.com 14
Technologies: conventional conversion routes Great Plains, ND (USA) Indirect routes Natural Gas Methanation Synthetic gas - CO+H2 Lu’An (China) Gasification Fischer-Tropsch Liquid Fuels Refining Surface/ Underground Secunda (RSA) Yitai (China) Coal Liquid Fuels Methanol Methanol To Gasoline Jamg (Shanxi, China) Petrochemicals Methanol To Olefins Direct route Baotou (I. Mongolia) Liquid Fuels Dissolution Liquefaction Hydrotreatment Refining Majiata (Inner Mongolia) 14 th European Round Table on Coal – May 31, 2011 www.world-ctl.com 15
Coal Conversion Environment 14 th European Round Table on Coal – May 31, 2011 www.world-ctl.com 16
Environment: Coal is most controversial e c n e r e n f o C L T C d r l ) o s W e r t 9 , u 0 e 0 R 2 ( , C 6 D 2 h n c o r g t a n M i h s a W 9 , 0 0 2 , 2 h c r a M « Coal is My Worst Nightmare » Steven Chu, Nobel physicist, U.S. Energy Secretary 14 th European Round Table on Coal – May 31, 2011 www.world-ctl.com 17
Environment: Local Stakes Three steps: • Coal mining: need for a responsible sourcing • Conversion itself Need for water: 1 to 2 m3 per barrel: an issue in several regions – Ashes, gaseous and liquid noxious emissions: managed through classical chemical – processes • Combustion: synthetic fuels are purer than from conventional fuels. Volatile org. CO Nitrogen oxides Part. matter (<10 ppm) Sulfur oxides 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Source: Idaho National Laboratory (2007) 14 th European Round Table on Coal – May 31, 2011 www.world-ctl.com 18
Global Issue: GreenHouse Gas Emissions Case 1: Diesel produces from coal without CCS (Carbon Capture & Storage) Well to Wheels emissions (grams of CO2 equivalent per mile): 900 800 +63-100% 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Diesel from CTL diesel crude oil w/o CCS Sources: Idaho National Laboratory (2007) and U.S. DOE (2009) (marked *) 14 th European Round Table on Coal – May 31, 2011 www.world-ctl.com 19
Global Issue: CCS & Biomass are CTL’s best allies Case 2: Diesel produced from coal with CCS: • CCS reduces by 90-95% the CO2 emissions within the CTL plant • CCS is now included in most CTL projects. Well to Wheels emissions (grams of CO2 equivalent per mile): 900 800 +63-100% 700 600 -4% -5-12% Reference: conventional diesel 500 400 -30% 300 -46% 200 100 0 Diesel from CTL diesel CTL diesel CTL diesel CTL diesel, CTL diesel, crude oil w/o CCS with CCS * with 30% CCS & 30% CCS & 15% biomass biomass biomass * Sources: Idaho National Laboratory (2007) and U.S. DOE (2009) (marked *) 14 th European Round Table on Coal – May 31, 2011 www.world-ctl.com 20
CCS: Cost Breakdown Capture $25-75 per tonne CO 2 Transport I njection $1-5 per $1-2 tonne CO 2 / 100 km Per tonne CO 2 Source: IPCC - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - 2005 In a CTL plant, CO2 is already captured 14 th European Round Table on Coal – May 31, 2011 www.world-ctl.com 21
Coal Conversion Economics 14 th European Round Table on Coal – May 31, 2011 www.world-ctl.com 22
At Present Barrel Price, a Profitable Activity $/bbl - Crude Oil Equivalent IFP: Europe PEI JP Morgan U.S. DOE IFP: USA PEI Nal Rand NRC U.S. DOE Acad. Yitai Shenhua IFP: China U.S. JGC National U.S. National JGC Research Coal Council Council Technology providers 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 14 th European Round Table on Coal – May 31, 2011 www.world-ctl.com 23
Sensitivity Analysis Variation of the Return on Investment in % for +/-25% variation of… Other parameters: CO2 impact, subsidies, discount rate,… Source: U.S. DOE 2007 14 th European Round Table on Coal – May 31, 2011 www.world-ctl.com 24
A Capital Intensive Industry (40-50,000 bpd unit) Reported Capital Expenditure - 40-50,000 bpd unit x000$ / daily bbl bpd25k DOE PEI Nal Acad. Scully Capital NRC JP Morgan NCC SSEB Shenhua DOE Technology providers 2009 2011 2006 2007 2008 2010 14 th European Round Table on Coal – May 31, 2011 www.world-ctl.com 25
Coal Conversion Current Developments 14 th European Round Table on Coal – May 31, 2011 www.world-ctl.com 26
Many Projects, Several Demonstration Plants Baotou 600,000 tpa 4.3 Mm3/d Great Plans, ND 20,000 bpd Ordos Irkutsk 4,000 bpd Fox Creek Leuna Yitai Serafimovskiy Mongolia Lu’An 4,000 bpd Posco Assam JAMG Tata Sasol 3,000 bpd Geleximco Jindal Philippines Bumi & Sasol Waterberg Mmamabula Arckaringa CTL Clinton SNG Secunda Sasolburg Spitfire Oil Projects Monash Latrobe 160,000 bpd Operations L&M Lignite 14 th European Round Table on Coal – May 31, 2011 www.world-ctl.com 27
CTL projections x000 barrels/day Forecasts published in 2,750 • the U.S.A. 2,700 • the P.R. China 900 x000 barrels/day 750 350 Shenhua BTL 700 300 442 kbpd 250 250 200 200 150 150 CTL Shenhua 110 kbpd 100 100 50 50 Oil shale 0 0 2009 2011 2015 2020 2030 2009 2011 2015 2020 2030 2025 2025 Sources: China Coal Information Institute (2009) and Shenhua (2010) Source: U.S. Energy Intelligence Agency (2009) 14 th European Round Table on Coal – May 31, 2011 www.world-ctl.com 28
World CTL, a European Initiative to Boost Co-operations Presentations, networking, appraisal 14 th European Round Table on Coal – May 31, 2011 www.world-ctl.com 29
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