Background Pop. Size Pop. Aging Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings Chinese Government Claim ◮ 400 million births were prevented ◮ Where did this claim come from? How was it calculated? ◮ Simply extrapolated what the birth rate would have been if it followed the trajectory of decline between 1950 and 1970 ◮ Predicted that the crude birth rate would be 29.7 per thousand by 1990 Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy
Background Pop. Size Pop. Aging Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings Chinese Government Claim ◮ 400 million births were prevented ◮ Where did this claim come from? How was it calculated? ◮ Simply extrapolated what the birth rate would have been if it followed the trajectory of decline between 1950 and 1970 ◮ Predicted that the crude birth rate would be 29.7 per thousand by 1990 ◮ The difference between the observed birth rate the and the predicted birth rate yields ≈ 338 million births Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy
Background Pop. Size Pop. Aging Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings What is the correct counterfactual? Wang et al. (2013) ◮ The government claim ignores the pre-OCP decline in birth rate - beginning in 1970 Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy
Background Pop. Size Pop. Aging Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings What is the correct counterfactual? Wang et al. (2013) ◮ The government claim ignores the pre-OCP decline in birth rate - beginning in 1970 ◮ From 1970 to 1978 the fertility rate dropped from 5.8 to 2.8 Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy
Background Pop. Size Pop. Aging Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings What is the correct counterfactual? Wang et al. (2013) ◮ The government claim ignores the pre-OCP decline in birth rate - beginning in 1970 ◮ From 1970 to 1978 the fertility rate dropped from 5.8 to 2.8 ◮ So most of these 338 “prevented” births are due to pre-OCP fertility decline, rather than from the OCP itself Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy
Background Pop. Size Pop. Aging Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings What is the correct counterfactual? Wang et al. (2013) ◮ The government claim ignores the pre-OCP decline in birth rate - beginning in 1970 ◮ From 1970 to 1978 the fertility rate dropped from 5.8 to 2.8 ◮ So most of these 338 “prevented” births are due to pre-OCP fertility decline, rather than from the OCP itself ◮ Using a Bayesian model to project future fertility rates (Alkema et al 2011), it is predicted that without the OCP China’s birth rate would have continued to decline after 1980 Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy
Background Pop. Size Pop. Aging Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings What is the correct counterfactual? Wang et al. (2013) ◮ The government claim ignores the pre-OCP decline in birth rate - beginning in 1970 ◮ From 1970 to 1978 the fertility rate dropped from 5.8 to 2.8 ◮ So most of these 338 “prevented” births are due to pre-OCP fertility decline, rather than from the OCP itself ◮ Using a Bayesian model to project future fertility rates (Alkema et al 2011), it is predicted that without the OCP China’s birth rate would have continued to decline after 1980 ◮ By 2010, the model predicts that the fertility rate would be at 1.5 births per woman Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy
Background Pop. Size Pop. Aging Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings What is the correct counterfactual? Wang et al. (2013) ◮ The government claim ignores the pre-OCP decline in birth rate - beginning in 1970 ◮ From 1970 to 1978 the fertility rate dropped from 5.8 to 2.8 ◮ So most of these 338 “prevented” births are due to pre-OCP fertility decline, rather than from the OCP itself ◮ Using a Bayesian model to project future fertility rates (Alkema et al 2011), it is predicted that without the OCP China’s birth rate would have continued to decline after 1980 ◮ By 2010, the model predicts that the fertility rate would be at 1.5 births per woman ◮ This is what was actually observed! Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy
Background Pop. Size Pop. Aging Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings Birth rates of comparable countries Wang et al. (2013) Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy
Background Pop. Size Pop. Aging Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings So, what’s the problem? Wang et al. (2013) ◮ If the impact of the OCP on population growth and size is negligible, then why have were so many urging China to change the policy? Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy
Background Pop. Size Pop. Aging Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings So, what’s the problem? Wang et al. (2013) ◮ If the impact of the OCP on population growth and size is negligible, then why have were so many urging China to change the policy? ◮ Long-term impacts on the Chinese society Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy
Background Pop. Size Pop. Aging Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings So, what’s the problem? Wang et al. (2013) ◮ If the impact of the OCP on population growth and size is negligible, then why have were so many urging China to change the policy? ◮ Long-term impacts on the Chinese society ◮ Hundreds of millions of families with only one child Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy
Background Pop. Size Pop. Aging Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings So, what’s the problem? Wang et al. (2013) ◮ If the impact of the OCP on population growth and size is negligible, then why have were so many urging China to change the policy? ◮ Long-term impacts on the Chinese society ◮ Hundreds of millions of families with only one child ◮ Nationally, 40% of women aged 35-44 in 2005 had only one child Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy
Background Pop. Size Pop. Aging Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings So, what’s the problem? Wang et al. (2013) ◮ If the impact of the OCP on population growth and size is negligible, then why have were so many urging China to change the policy? ◮ Long-term impacts on the Chinese society ◮ Hundreds of millions of families with only one child ◮ Nationally, 40% of women aged 35-44 in 2005 had only one child ◮ This represents roughly 50 million families Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy
Background Pop. Size Pop. Aging Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings So, what’s the problem? Wang et al. (2013) ◮ If the impact of the OCP on population growth and size is negligible, then why have were so many urging China to change the policy? ◮ Long-term impacts on the Chinese society ◮ Hundreds of millions of families with only one child ◮ Nationally, 40% of women aged 35-44 in 2005 had only one child ◮ This represents roughly 50 million families ◮ This share is higher in urban areas (e.g. Shanghai and Beijing with roughly 80%) than rural areas (e.g. Guizhou, Yunnan, and Tibet with roughly 20%) Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy
Background Pop. Size Pop. Aging Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings Some stylized facts ◮ About 150 million families have only one child, accounting for roughly a third of all families Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy
Background Pop. Size Pop. Aging Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings Some stylized facts ◮ About 150 million families have only one child, accounting for roughly a third of all families ◮ In 1980, roughly 6% of China’s population was older than 65 Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy
Background Pop. Size Pop. Aging Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings Some stylized facts ◮ About 150 million families have only one child, accounting for roughly a third of all families ◮ In 1980, roughly 6% of China’s population was older than 65 ◮ In 2010 this proportion is up to 9% Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy
Background Pop. Size Pop. Aging Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings Some stylized facts ◮ About 150 million families have only one child, accounting for roughly a third of all families ◮ In 1980, roughly 6% of China’s population was older than 65 ◮ In 2010 this proportion is up to 9% ◮ Compared to US and Japan with 13% and 23%, respectively, of their population older than 65 Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy
Background Pop. Size Pop. Aging Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings Some stylized facts ◮ About 150 million families have only one child, accounting for roughly a third of all families ◮ In 1980, roughly 6% of China’s population was older than 65 ◮ In 2010 this proportion is up to 9% ◮ Compared to US and Japan with 13% and 23%, respectively, of their population older than 65 ◮ Cause for concern: China is much lower individual income than both the US and Japan Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy
Background Pop. Size Pop. Aging Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings Share of population over 65 and per capital GDP rank Cameron and Meng (2014) Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy
Background Pop. Size Pop. Aging Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings Public Finance ◮ Historically, China has relied on families to provide care for the elderly Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy
Background Pop. Size Pop. Aging Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings Public Finance ◮ Historically, China has relied on families to provide care for the elderly ◮ In 2010, the Urban Basic Pension System covered only 40% of the urban population Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy
Background Pop. Size Pop. Aging Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings Public Finance ◮ Historically, China has relied on families to provide care for the elderly ◮ In 2010, the Urban Basic Pension System covered only 40% of the urban population ◮ Only 15% of those living in rural areas are covered by the rural pension system Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy
Background Pop. Size Pop. Aging Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings Public Finance ◮ Historically, China has relied on families to provide care for the elderly ◮ In 2010, the Urban Basic Pension System covered only 40% of the urban population ◮ Only 15% of those living in rural areas are covered by the rural pension system ◮ A generation of only children are quickly realizing responsibility of caring for elderly parents and/or grandparents Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy
Background Pop. Size Pop. Aging Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings Public Finance ◮ Historically, China has relied on families to provide care for the elderly ◮ In 2010, the Urban Basic Pension System covered only 40% of the urban population ◮ Only 15% of those living in rural areas are covered by the rural pension system ◮ A generation of only children are quickly realizing responsibility of caring for elderly parents and/or grandparents ◮ 40% nationally and 80% in urban areas Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy
Background Pop. Size Pop. Aging Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings Public Finance ◮ Historically, China has relied on families to provide care for the elderly ◮ In 2010, the Urban Basic Pension System covered only 40% of the urban population ◮ Only 15% of those living in rural areas are covered by the rural pension system ◮ A generation of only children are quickly realizing responsibility of caring for elderly parents and/or grandparents ◮ 40% nationally and 80% in urban areas ◮ In urban areas aging has been slowed due to immigration of young workers Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy
Background Pop. Size Pop. Aging Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings Public Finance ◮ Historically, China has relied on families to provide care for the elderly ◮ In 2010, the Urban Basic Pension System covered only 40% of the urban population ◮ Only 15% of those living in rural areas are covered by the rural pension system ◮ A generation of only children are quickly realizing responsibility of caring for elderly parents and/or grandparents ◮ 40% nationally and 80% in urban areas ◮ In urban areas aging has been slowed due to immigration of young workers ◮ This makes the aging problem even more serious in rural areas Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy
Background Pop. Size Pop. Aging Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings Geography of Aging, 65+ Peng (2011) Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy
Background Pop. Size Pop. Aging Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings Geography of Aging, 0-14 Peng (2011) Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy
Background Pop. Size Pop. Aging Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings Sex ratio by birth cohort Ebenstein (2010) Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy
Background Pop. Size Pop. Aging Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings The “Missing Girls” of China Ebenstein (2010) ◮ In 1990, Amartya Sen estimated that 50 million Chinese women, and 100 million women worldwide were “missing” Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy
Background Pop. Size Pop. Aging Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings The “Missing Girls” of China Ebenstein (2010) ◮ In 1990, Amartya Sen estimated that 50 million Chinese women, and 100 million women worldwide were “missing” ◮ Summary: ◮ The sex ratio disparity in China is primarily due to the OCP, rather than due to biological factors - e.g. hepatitis (Oster 2005) Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy
Background Pop. Size Pop. Aging Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings The “Missing Girls” of China Ebenstein (2010) ◮ In 1990, Amartya Sen estimated that 50 million Chinese women, and 100 million women worldwide were “missing” ◮ Summary: ◮ The sex ratio disparity in China is primarily due to the OCP, rather than due to biological factors - e.g. hepatitis (Oster 2005) ◮ “This forced decline in fertility and rise in the male fraction of births appear to be causally linked” Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy
Background Pop. Size Pop. Aging Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings The “Missing Girls” of China Ebenstein (2010) ◮ In 1990, Amartya Sen estimated that 50 million Chinese women, and 100 million women worldwide were “missing” ◮ Summary: ◮ The sex ratio disparity in China is primarily due to the OCP, rather than due to biological factors - e.g. hepatitis (Oster 2005) ◮ “This forced decline in fertility and rise in the male fraction of births appear to be causally linked” ◮ The OCP also impacted birth patterns - sons are preceded by longer intervals than daughters Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy
Background Pop. Size Pop. Aging Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings Male births following female births Ebenstein (2010) Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy
Background Pop. Size Pop. Aging Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings How many girls are missing? Ebenstein (2010) Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy
Background Pop. Size Pop. Aging Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings Geographical distribution of fines Ebenstein (2010) Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy
Background Pop. Size Pop. Aging Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings Rising sex ratio after 1990 Ebenstein (2010) Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy
Background Pop. Size Pop. Aging Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings Are fertility regulations causing sex ratio changes? Ebenstein (2010) Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy
Background Pop. Size Pop. Aging Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings Discussion ◮ Projections show, by 2025, a deficit of females at typical marriage ages between 20-30 million Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy
Background Pop. Size Pop. Aging Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings Discussion ◮ Projections show, by 2025, a deficit of females at typical marriage ages between 20-30 million ◮ A so-called “marriage squeeze” will have serious societal implications: ◮ Changes in marriage and family institutions (e.g. more women from abroad...) Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy
Background Pop. Size Pop. Aging Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings Discussion ◮ Projections show, by 2025, a deficit of females at typical marriage ages between 20-30 million ◮ A so-called “marriage squeeze” will have serious societal implications: ◮ Changes in marriage and family institutions (e.g. more women from abroad...) ◮ Stories of human trafficking of women for would-be husbands Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy
Background Pop. Size Pop. Aging Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings Discussion ◮ Projections show, by 2025, a deficit of females at typical marriage ages between 20-30 million ◮ A so-called “marriage squeeze” will have serious societal implications: ◮ Changes in marriage and family institutions (e.g. more women from abroad...) ◮ Stories of human trafficking of women for would-be husbands ◮ Implications for foreign exchange reserves and the macroeconomy Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy
Background Pop. Size Pop. Aging Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings Discussion ◮ Projections show, by 2025, a deficit of females at typical marriage ages between 20-30 million ◮ A so-called “marriage squeeze” will have serious societal implications: ◮ Changes in marriage and family institutions (e.g. more women from abroad...) ◮ Stories of human trafficking of women for would-be husbands ◮ Implications for foreign exchange reserves and the macroeconomy ◮ The price of marriage - market distorted due to OCP Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy
Background Pop. Size Pop. Aging Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings The Q-Q model Rosenzweig and Zhang (2009) ◮ Empirical studies, using twinning as a source of exogeneity, have shown limited evidence for the Q-Q model Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy
Background Pop. Size Pop. Aging Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings The Q-Q model Rosenzweig and Zhang (2009) ◮ Empirical studies, using twinning as a source of exogeneity, have shown limited evidence for the Q-Q model ◮ These studies ignore the impact of total family size on quality (e.g. the impact on the twins themselves) ◮ Twins are born together and are associated with lower APGAR scores and birth weights Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy
Background Pop. Size Pop. Aging Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings The Q-Q model Rosenzweig and Zhang (2009) ◮ Empirical studies, using twinning as a source of exogeneity, have shown limited evidence for the Q-Q model ◮ These studies ignore the impact of total family size on quality (e.g. the impact on the twins themselves) ◮ Twins are born together and are associated with lower APGAR scores and birth weights ◮ Thus, unequal within family endowments may impact the allocation of resources for each child Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy
Background Pop. Size Pop. Aging Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings The Q-Q model Rosenzweig and Zhang (2009) ◮ Empirical studies, using twinning as a source of exogeneity, have shown limited evidence for the Q-Q model ◮ These studies ignore the impact of total family size on quality (e.g. the impact on the twins themselves) ◮ Twins are born together and are associated with lower APGAR scores and birth weights ◮ Thus, unequal within family endowments may impact the allocation of resources for each child ◮ Summary: Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy
Background Pop. Size Pop. Aging Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings The Q-Q model Rosenzweig and Zhang (2009) ◮ Empirical studies, using twinning as a source of exogeneity, have shown limited evidence for the Q-Q model ◮ These studies ignore the impact of total family size on quality (e.g. the impact on the twins themselves) ◮ Twins are born together and are associated with lower APGAR scores and birth weights ◮ Thus, unequal within family endowments may impact the allocation of resources for each child ◮ Summary: ◮ Empirical studies using twinning for exogeneity may underestimate the Q-Q trade-off Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy
Background Pop. Size Pop. Aging Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings The Q-Q model Rosenzweig and Zhang (2009) ◮ Empirical studies, using twinning as a source of exogeneity, have shown limited evidence for the Q-Q model ◮ These studies ignore the impact of total family size on quality (e.g. the impact on the twins themselves) ◮ Twins are born together and are associated with lower APGAR scores and birth weights ◮ Thus, unequal within family endowments may impact the allocation of resources for each child ◮ Summary: ◮ Empirical studies using twinning for exogeneity may underestimate the Q-Q trade-off ◮ Despite evidence of a Q-Q trade-off, the impact of the OCP on human capital is still modest Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy
Background Pop. Size Pop. Aging Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings Identifying the Q-Q effect using first-birth twins Rosenzweig and Zhang (2009) ◮ Estimate of exogenous increase in quantity on schooling and health outcomes of first-birth twins and non-twins Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy
Background Pop. Size Pop. Aging Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings Identifying the Q-Q effect using first-birth twins Rosenzweig and Zhang (2009) ◮ Estimate of exogenous increase in quantity on schooling and health outcomes of first-birth twins and non-twins ◮ H 1 j = ηT j + δe 1 j + λa 1 j + ǫ 1 j ◮ H 1 j is the child quality indicator for any child of parity 1 in family j . ◮ T j = 1 if the child is in a household with a first-birth twin pair ◮ e 1 j is a measure of birth endowment (birth weight) ◮ a 1 j is the age of the mother at the first birth ◮ ǫ 1 j is an error term Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy
Background Pop. Size Pop. Aging Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings Estimates using first-birth twins Rosenzweig and Zhang (2009) Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy
Background Pop. Size Pop. Aging Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings Impact of first-birth twins, in perspective Rosenzweig and Zhang (2009) ◮ Expected probability of attending college 14% lower in families with first-birth twins Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy
Background Pop. Size Pop. Aging Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings Impact of first-birth twins, in perspective Rosenzweig and Zhang (2009) ◮ Expected probability of attending college 14% lower in families with first-birth twins ◮ Reduction in years of schooling by 0.23 years, or 4% in families with first-birth twins Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy
Background Pop. Size Pop. Aging Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings Impact of first-birth twins, in perspective Rosenzweig and Zhang (2009) ◮ Expected probability of attending college 14% lower in families with first-birth twins ◮ Reduction in years of schooling by 0.23 years, or 4% in families with first-birth twins ◮ Compare these impacts to... ◮ Dulfo (2001) found that doubling the number of schools in Indonesia increased years of schooling by 0.19 years Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy
Background Pop. Size Pop. Aging Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings Impact of first-birth twins, in perspective Rosenzweig and Zhang (2009) ◮ Expected probability of attending college 14% lower in families with first-birth twins ◮ Reduction in years of schooling by 0.23 years, or 4% in families with first-birth twins ◮ Compare these impacts to... ◮ Dulfo (2001) found that doubling the number of schools in Indonesia increased years of schooling by 0.19 years ◮ Schultz (2004) found that the Progresa program in Mexico increased years of schooling by 0.66 years Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy
Background Pop. Size Pop. Aging Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings Impact of first-birth twins, in perspective Rosenzweig and Zhang (2009) ◮ Expected probability of attending college 14% lower in families with first-birth twins ◮ Reduction in years of schooling by 0.23 years, or 4% in families with first-birth twins ◮ Compare these impacts to... ◮ Dulfo (2001) found that doubling the number of schools in Indonesia increased years of schooling by 0.19 years ◮ Schultz (2004) found that the Progresa program in Mexico increased years of schooling by 0.66 years ◮ Miguel and Kremer (2004) found in Kenya that provision of a de-worming pill increased years of schooling by 0.14 years Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy
Background Pop. Size Pop. Aging Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings Identifying the Q-Q effect using second-birth twins Rosenzweig and Zhang (2009) ◮ Estimate the effects of an additional child at the second birth on both second-birth and first-birth children Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy
Background Pop. Size Pop. Aging Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings Identifying the Q-Q effect using second-birth twins Rosenzweig and Zhang (2009) ◮ Estimate the effects of an additional child at the second birth on both second-birth and first-birth children ◮ H ij = η 0 T j + η 1 ( T j × F ij )+ η 2 F ij + δ 1 e ∗ 2 j + δ 2 ( e ∗ 2 j × F ij )+ µ j + ζ ij ◮ H ij is the quality of a child at parity i (1 or 2) in household j ◮ T j = 1 if the child is in a household with a second-birth twin pair ◮ F ij = 1 if child i is a singleton first-born ◮ e ∗ 2 j = the average birth weight of the second-birth child (twins) ◮ µ j is a family (mother) fixed effect ◮ ζ ij is a random error term Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy
Background Pop. Size Pop. Aging Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings Estimates using second-birth twins Rosenzweig and Zhang (2009) Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy
Background Pop. Size Pop. Aging Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings Impact of second-birth twins, in perspective Rosenzweig and Zhang (2009) ◮ Expected probability of attending college 27% lower among second-birth twins Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy
Background Pop. Size Pop. Aging Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings Impact of second-birth twins, in perspective Rosenzweig and Zhang (2009) ◮ Expected probability of attending college 27% lower among second-birth twins ◮ A twin on second-birth decreases schooling progress by 0.65 years for the twins Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy
Background Pop. Size Pop. Aging Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings Impact of second-birth twins, in perspective Rosenzweig and Zhang (2009) ◮ Expected probability of attending college 27% lower among second-birth twins ◮ A twin on second-birth decreases schooling progress by 0.65 years for the twins ◮ The impacts of twinning at second pregnancy is less negative on first-birth than on second-birth children Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy
Background Pop. Size Pop. Aging Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings Impact of second-birth twins, in perspective Rosenzweig and Zhang (2009) ◮ Expected probability of attending college 27% lower among second-birth twins ◮ A twin on second-birth decreases schooling progress by 0.65 years for the twins ◮ The impacts of twinning at second pregnancy is less negative on first-birth than on second-birth children ◮ A twin on second-birth decreases schooling progress by 0.23 years for the first child Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy
Background Pop. Size Pop. Aging Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings Estimates using second-birth twins Rosenzweig and Zhang (2009) Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy
Background Pop. Size Pop. Aging Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings Discussion Rosenzweig and Zhang (2009) ◮ China’s working age population is currently at a peak of 1 billion Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy
Background Pop. Size Pop. Aging Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings Discussion Rosenzweig and Zhang (2009) ◮ China’s working age population is currently at a peak of 1 billion ◮ Need to create roughly 20 million jobs annually Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy
Background Pop. Size Pop. Aging Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings Discussion Rosenzweig and Zhang (2009) ◮ China’s working age population is currently at a peak of 1 billion ◮ Need to create roughly 20 million jobs annually ◮ Slow economic growth or reductions in labor force participation could constrain China’s economy Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy
Background Pop. Size Pop. Aging Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings Discussion Rosenzweig and Zhang (2009) ◮ China’s working age population is currently at a peak of 1 billion ◮ Need to create roughly 20 million jobs annually ◮ Slow economic growth or reductions in labor force participation could constrain China’s economy ◮ One potential solution: Increase investments in human capital Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy
Background Pop. Size Pop. Aging Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings Discussion Rosenzweig and Zhang (2009) ◮ China’s working age population is currently at a peak of 1 billion ◮ Need to create roughly 20 million jobs annually ◮ Slow economic growth or reductions in labor force participation could constrain China’s economy ◮ One potential solution: Increase investments in human capital ◮ What was the impact of the OCP on human capital? ◮ Upper-bound estimates suggest that the OCP decreased family size by a third of a child Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy
Background Pop. Size Pop. Aging Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings Discussion Rosenzweig and Zhang (2009) ◮ China’s working age population is currently at a peak of 1 billion ◮ Need to create roughly 20 million jobs annually ◮ Slow economic growth or reductions in labor force participation could constrain China’s economy ◮ One potential solution: Increase investments in human capital ◮ What was the impact of the OCP on human capital? ◮ Upper-bound estimates suggest that the OCP decreased family size by a third of a child ◮ Increased educational attainment by 4%, the probability of attending college by 9%, school grades by 1%, and incidence of good or excellent health by 4% Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy
Background Pop. Size Pop. Aging Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings Consequences of not having siblings Cameron et al. (2013) ◮ Childhood development is understood to be shaped by parents and by social interactions with peers Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy
Background Pop. Size Pop. Aging Sex Ratio Human Capital Personality Optional Readings Consequences of not having siblings Cameron et al. (2013) ◮ Childhood development is understood to be shaped by parents and by social interactions with peers ◮ Psychologists have identified both positive and negative impacts of being an only child Jeffrey R. Bloem University of Minnesota China’s One-Child Policy
Recommend
More recommend
