CBOs Economic Projections Presentation at the NYU Stern Economic - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Congressional Budget Office September 8, 2015 CBO’s Economic Projections Presentation at the NYU Stern Economic Outlook Forum New York City, New York Wendy Edelberg Assistant Director, Macroeconomic Analysis

1 CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE

Growth of Real GDP 2 CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE

Contributions to the Growth of Real GDP 3 CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE

Real Total Compensation of Employees 4 CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE

Business Investment 5 CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE

Household Formation 6 CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE

Growth of Trade 7 CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE

8 CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE

Rates of Short- and Long-Term Unemployment 9 CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE

Underuse of Labor 10 CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE

Employment Shortfall The employment shortfall is the number of people who would be employed if the unemployment rate equaled its rate in December 2007 (the light blue bars) and if the labor force participation rate equaled its potential rate (the dark blue bars). 11 CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE

The Labor Force, Employment, and Unemployment 12 CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE

Labor Force Participation Rates 13 CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE

Hourly Labor Compensation 14 CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE

15 CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE

GDP and Potential GDP 16 CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE

Inflation 17 CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE

Forecasts of Interest Rates by CBO, the Federal Reserve, and Federal Funds Futures 18 CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE

Interest Rates 19 CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE

Nominal and Real 10-Year Treasury Notes *Calculated using the consumer price index for all urban consumers. 20 CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE

Spread Between 10-Year Treasury Notes and 3-Month Treasury Bills 21 CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE

Interest Rates on 10-Year Treasury Notes 22 CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE