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Causal Maps Professor Dobrila Petrovic d.petrovic@coventry.ac.uk - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Oct 24, 2023 •130 likes •301 views

Modelling and Analysis of Different Localization of JSF Squadron Using Causal Maps Professor Dobrila Petrovic d.petrovic@coventry.ac.uk Pawel Zdanowicz Research Assistant ab3145@coventry.ac.uk Coventry University, UK Colin Irwin

  1. Modelling and Analysis of Different Localization of JSF Squadron Using Causal Maps Professor Dobrila Petrovic d.petrovic@coventry.ac.uk Pawel Zdanowicz – Research Assistant ab3145@coventry.ac.uk Coventry University, UK Colin Irwin – Technical Partner DSTL, Policy & Capability Studies Department, UK Funded by Centre for Defence Enterprise, UK Contract No. DSTLX1000068169 The 30 th International Symposium on Military Operational Research, ISMOR

  2. ISMOR 29  Work presented in this presentation is continuation of the project presented on the 29 th ISMOR  Theoretical description of the method with “common sense” causal map and demo of the software Presentation with more details of the theoretical part: http://www.ismor.com/29ismor_papers/29ismor_zdanowicz_petrovic.pdf

  3. Outline Objectives 1. Proposed methodology 2. Causal map 3. - Elements of causal map - Membership Functions - New types of relationships Results 4. Conclusions and further development 5.

  4. Objectives Design a new system:  for modelling and analysis of allocation of resources to Defence Lines of Development (DLoDs); and  as test case, example analysis of the potential impacts upon military capability and budget requirements of location options for the future UK Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) force.

  5. Objectives Lossiemouth DLODS: T raining E quipment P ersonnel Marham I nfrastructure D octrine and Concept O rganisation I nformation L ogistics

  6. Proposed methodology Rule Based Fuzzy Causal Maps (RBFCM) Existing systems:  Forest Fire Modelling  Fishermen’s behaviour in a pelagic fishery  Students’ behaviour  Defence Lines of Development new system

  7. Elements of a causal map Causal Node Effect Node  Concepts Advancement of Equipment Equipment Attribute: Ability Attribute: Budget  Relationships I F Budget for Advancement of Equipment is Increased  Rules T HEN Ability of Equipment is Increased Little  Membership functions

  8. Causal Map (1 st part of the project)

  9. Real World Case more Complex...

  10. Causal Map (2 nd part of the project) Equipment Equipment Repair Establishment Attribute: Budget Attribute: Budget Logistics Hangarage and Consumables Personnel Equipment Specialist Support Attribute: Budget Accomodation Attribute: Budget Buildings Attribute: Budget Advancement of Attribute: Budget Airfield Support Equipment Attribute: Budget Attribute: Budget Support Equipment Available Squadron Attribute: Budget Equipment AAR Accommodation Attribute: Airframes Attribute: Budget Attribute: Budget Synthetic Training Equipment Operating Surfaces Attribute: Budget Attribute: Budget Other Flying Platform Equipment Logistics Support Attribute: Ability Attribute: Ability Infrastructure Attribute: Budget Attribute: Ability Buildings Attribute: Budget Training Overall Synthetic Equipment Overall Live Flying Specialist Training Training Attribute: Budget Attribute: Hours Areas & Equipment Attribute: Hours Attribute: Budget Training Pre-Training Attribute: Ability Information Transit Flying Education JSF Force Attribute: Ability Attribute: Hours Attribute: Budget Attribute: Ability Live Flying for Individual Training Attribute: Hours Organisation Attribute: Ability Individual Training Synthetic Training for Attribute: Budget Personnel Doctrine and Concept Physiological Support Individual Training Attribute: Ability Attribute: Ability Attribute: Hours Attribute: Budget Live Flying for Team Training Number of Attribute: Hours Team Training Family Support People Joint Training Attribute: Budget Attribute: Budget Attribute: Budget Attribute: Budget Synthetic Training for Team Training Attribute: Hours Collective Training Attribute: Budget Live Flying for Synthetic Training for Joint Training Joint Training Live Flying for Attribute: Hours Attribute: Hours Collective Training Synthetic Training for Attribute: Hours Collective Training Attribute: Hours

  11. Causal Map (2 nd part of the project) Overall Synthetic Sqn Live Flying for Overall Live Flying Consumables Training Individual Training Attribute: Hours Attribute: Hours Attribute: Budget Attribute: Hours Sqn Synthetic Training AAR for Individual Training Attribute: Budget Attribute: Hours OCU Students Live Flying for Individual Training Training Attribute: Hours Attribute: Ability OCU Students Individual Training Synthetic Training for Attribute: Budget Individual Training Attribute: Hours OCU Staff Live Flying for Individual Training Attribute: Hours OCU Staff Synthetic Training for Individual Training Attribute: Hours

  12. Membership Functions – Variation Budget, Ability

  13. Membership Functions - Level Number of Hours

  14. New types of relationships Linear relationship: 1 hour of Live Flying Training costs 1200 GBP Conditional fuzzy causal relationships: IF Number of Hours allocated to Overall Live Flying is Medium AND NOT (Operating Surfaces is Increased or Increased Much) AND NOT (Hangarage is Increased Little or Increased or Increased Much) THEN Ability of Infrastructure DLoD will Decrease Little Hangarage and Infrastructure Specialist Support Attribute: Ability Buildings Attribute: Budget Overall Live Flying Operating Surfaces Attribute: Hours Attribute: Budget Complex fuzzy causal relationship: Training Attribute: Ability IF Number of Hours for Live Flying is Very Low AND Number of Hours for Synthetic Training is Very Low THEN Ability of Training DLoD will Decrease Much IF Number of Hours for Live Flying is Very Low Live Flying for Synthetic Training for Collective Training Collective Training AND Number of Hours for Synthetic Training is Low Attribute: Hours Attribute: Hours THEN Ability of Training DLoD will Decrease Much

  15. Demo

  16. Further Development  The demonstration of the JSF Force map was adjudged successful by a second Dstl SME workshop on March 4 th .  Recommended to develop the GODIVA tool further.  In particular, GODIVA should be used to shadow a suitable study to establish its value for long-term use in defence OA.

  17. Further Development  Replace abstract DLoDs with more tangible outputs: Training DLoD Ability Number of soldiers that are trained to required criteria. Equipment DLoD Ability Number and Quality of Equipment that is ready for use. Infrastructure DLoD Ability Hangarage, Operating Surfaces, Accommodation, Specialist Training Areas, etc relative to requirements.

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