Building Auckland A presentation to Auckland BIDs Presented by - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Building Auckland A presentation to Auckland BIDs Presented by David Norman Chief Economist, Auckland Council 19 August 2019 Visit www.aucklandcouncil.govt.nz – Chief Economist Unit

What I’m covering • Headline drivers • Housing • Non-residential construction • Infrastructure Building Auckland: A presentation to Auckland BIDs

We’re a fast-growing city • 290,000 more people (2 Taurangas) in 10 years • Construction • Professional services • Tourism • Everything else to service these people Building Auckland: A presentation to Auckland BIDs

We’re a fast-growing city • Central city • But also huge growth in the south Building Auckland: A presentation to Auckland BIDs

Migration – poor data but strong message • Auckland likely still adding 26,000 plus people a year • Total pop’n now over 1.7 million • But internal emigration stronger Building Auckland: A presentation to Auckland BIDs

Retail Spending up big = jobs • Peaked at 11% during house price growth • Currently 4% Building Auckland: A presentation to Auckland BIDs

Tourism • Growth more uncertain, especially domestic and China And maybe flattening elsewhere Building Auckland: A presentation to Auckland BIDs

Housing hysteria Building Auckland: A presentation to Auckland BIDs

Affordability v the retail boost Building Auckland: A presentation to Auckland BIDs

“Scary” numbers Household debt to income ratio Building Auckland: A presentation to Auckland BIDs

A brief history of Australasian house prices Decline Peak growth -15.4% 180% 234% -1.1% -9.6% 204% -0.9% 194% -10.7% 191% 183% -0.2% Building Auckland: A presentation to Auckland BIDs

Australasian population growth • Resident demand has 2 components: • Changes in preferences • New residents added Building Auckland: A presentation to Auckland BIDs

Housing supply response • Auckland has consented Too few new dwellings too few new dwellings for arrivals, let alone preference changes Aussie building for non-residents, growth & preferences Building Auckland: A presentation to Auckland BIDs

Supply is responding but there’s a lot to do Building Auckland: A presentation to Auckland BIDs

Multi-units are complex • Multi-unit developments take longer to get consented • Took off from Jan 2018 • Up 197% since December 2017 Building Auckland: A presentation to Auckland BIDs

Supply by area – 13 months ago Building Auckland: A presentation to Auckland BIDs

Supply by area – today Building Auckland: A presentation to Auckland BIDs

Regular updates are available • For more on these topics, see here. • Google: “Chief Economist Auckland Council” • Or email david.norman@aucklandcouncil.govt.nz Building Auckland: A presentation to Auckland BIDs

Recent growth in non-res consenting • Where are we housing the new 160,000 workers? • Floor areas up 95% in 2 years • Excludes Commercial Bay Building Auckland: A presentation to Auckland BIDs

Transport • $28 billion ATAP • RFT – imperfect but it’s a start Building Auckland: A presentation to Auckland BIDs

FULSS • $21 billion over 30 years (not fully funded) • Plus schools, hospitals and other central govt services worth billions Hmmm, we might want to stage some of these costs Building Auckland: A presentation to Auckland BIDs

Structure Plans – Drury and Pukekohe Where are these people going to work? Drury $2+ billion Building Auckland: A presentation to Auckland BIDs funding gap

Structure Plans Building Auckland: A presentation to Auckland BIDs

What about Dwellings consented, brown v greenfield, 12-month rolling average brownfields? • Latent capacity • How long is a piece of string? Source: Chief Economist Unit, Auckland Council; Statistics New Zealand Building Auckland: A presentation to Auckland BIDs

How are we going to skill this? Building Auckland: A presentation to Auckland BIDs

Any questions? Building Auckland: A presentation to Auckland BIDs