Beyond the Comfort Zone Abrupt Climate Change and the Arctic Early Warming System Jason E. Box, PhD Assoc. Prof., Dept. of Geography The Ohio State University Earthkeeping Summit: 31 March, 2012, Columbus, OH Friday, March 30, 2012
Professional Bio • tenured Geography professor at The Ohio State University. • scientist at Byrd Polar Research Center • physical climatologist with Greenland ice and climate emphasis • >50 externally-reviewed publications • university lecturing 2003-present • emphasis on atmosphere-surface interactions • physical climatology at local to global scales • environmental issues • world geography Friday, March 30, 2012
Professional Bio State of the Climate • led since 2003, the Greenland entry for The Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society's annual State of the Climate reports. • led since 2007 composition of the Arctic Report Card, published annually since 2006 by The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. • contributing author to "Climate Change 2007", the definitive report on the science of climate change by the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). • contributing author to IPCC 5 th Assessment Report "Climate Change 2014" Friday, March 30, 2012
Greenland island area: 2.16 x 10 6 km 2 ice sheet area: 1.69 x 10 6 km 2 isolated ice caps: 59,746 km 2 2300 km x 200-700 km 87% area above 1000 m 3 million km 3 ice 4 Friday, March 30, 2012
Friday, March 30, 2012
Greenland Climate Network (1994-2005) Humboldt Tunu-N GITS NASA-E NGRIP NASA-U Summit CP1&2 Swiss Camp KAR JAR1,2,3 DYE-2 NASA-SE Steffen, K. and J.E. Box, 2001: Surface climatology of the Saddle Greenland ice sheet: Greenland Climate Network 1995-1999, J. Geophys. Res. , 106(D24), 33951-33964. South Dome Friday, March 30, 2012
Ice Reflectivity MODIS MOD10A1 Albedo GC-Net Friday, March 30, 2012
Surface Air Temperature MAR GC-Net Friday, March 30, 2012
Solar Energy MAR GC-Net Friday, March 30, 2012
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Umiamako Isbrae 15 June - 25 August 2007 1 frame per day, view from site A Friday, March 30, 2012
Daily Displacements at Umiamiko Isbrae max displacement = 65 pixels / day Displacement [pixels / day] Friday, March 30, 2012
August 2005 model verification, measuring snow accumulation at the point where models predict the most snowfall in Greenland. Friday, March 30, 2012
Photo: Jason Box, 4 July, 2009 Friday, March 30, 2012
Greenland Glacier Cumulative Area Changes Friday, March 30, 2012
monthly annual Friday, March 30, 2012
Instrumental Surface Air Temperature Anomalies degrees ¡C Friday, March 30, 2012
Hansen, J.E., and S. Lebedeff, 1987: Global trends of measured surface air temperature. J. Geophys. Res., 92, 13345-13372. Friday, March 30, 2012
The Paul Revere of Climatology testimony on climate change to congressional committees in the 1980s Friday, March 30, 2012
Arctic Amplification of Warming 2011 zonal average anomalies Friday, March 30, 2012
Albedo Change Box, J.E., X. Fettweis, J.C. Stroeve, M. Tedesco, D.K. Hall, and K. Steffen, Greenland ice sheet albedo feedback: thermodynamics and atmospheric drivers, The Cryosphere, tc-2012-5, 20 Jan. 2012 Friday, March 30, 2012
Greenland mass change 2002-2011 Velicogna, I. and J. Wahr (2006). Measurements of Time-Variable Gravity Show Mass Loss in Antarctica, Science, Vol. 311 no. 5768 pp. 1754-1756 DOI: 10.1126/science.1123785 Friday, March 30, 2012
Ocean Heat Content The heat content of the world ocean increased significantly, representing a volume mean warming of 0.06 C, corresponding to a warming rate of 0.3 W / m^2 per unit area of Earth’s surface. The global volume mean temperature increase for the 0- to 300-meter layer was 0.31 C between the mid-1950s and mid-1990s. Levitus, S., J. I. Antonov, T. P. Boyer, R. A. Locarnini, H. E. Garcia, and A. V. Mishonov (2009), Global ocean heat content 1955–2008 in light of recently revealed instrumentation problems, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L07608 Friday, March 30, 2012
Greenhouse Gas Concentrations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Climate Change, The Scientific Basis, 2007, Fourth Assessment Report Friday, March 30, 2012
Surface Air Temperature The Copenhagen Diagnosis, 2009: Updating the World on the Latest Climate Science. I. Allison, N.L. Bindoff, R.A. Bindschadler, P.M. Cox, N. de Noblet, M.H. England, J.E. Francis, N. Gruber, A.M. Haywood, D.J. Karoly, G. Kaser, C. Le QueÅLreÅL, T.M. Lenton, M.E. Mann, B.I. McNeil, A.J. Pitman, S. Rahmstorf, E. Rignot, H.J. Schellnhuber, S.H. Schneider, S.C. Sherwood, R.C.J. Somerville, K. Steffen, E.J. Steig, M. Visbeck, A.J. Weaver. The University of New South Wales Climate Change Research Centre (CCRC), Sydney, Australia, 60pp. Friday, March 30, 2012
Global Sea Level Grinsted, A., J. C. Moore, and S. Jevrejeva (2010), Reconstructing sea level from paleo and projected temperatures 200 to 2100 AD, Clim. Dyn., doi:10.1007/s00382-008-0507-2. Friday, March 30, 2012
32 million >35 million years ago years ago +21 m ~250 years ago Mar. 2012 395 ppmv 40% above pre-industrial 21,000 years ago after R. B. Alley, P. U. Clark, P. Huybrechts, I. Joughin, Ice-Sheet and Sea-Level Changes, Science, 2005 Friday, March 30, 2012
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Comodifying Nature 29 Friday, March 30, 2012
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Sustainable Development “Development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.” The Balancing Act Friday, March 30, 2012
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Extreme Energy, going after every last drop in the Athabascan Oil Sands myriad problems • ~3x CO 2 vs conventional petroleum • CO 2 makes climate change unmanageable • extreme water usage • land surface devastation • poisoning of people and animals • spills • setting another non-sustainable example • lock-in to extremely dirty energy http://www.drawthelineattarsands.com/images/uploads/slideshows/CA09-213.jpg Friday, March 30, 2012
Beyond the Comfort Zone 1,253 arrests at the No Keystone XL Pipeline White House Sit-In Friday, March 30, 2012
1,253 arrests at the No Keystone XL Pipeline White House Sit-In Friday, March 30, 2012
1,253 arrests at the No Keystone XL Pipeline White House Sit-In Friday, March 30, 2012
Winter Heatwave 2012 Friday, March 30, 2012
The Time-scales of Weather and Climate overlap http://usnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/03/25/10853227-march-has-meant-6000-weather- 41 records-broken Friday, March 30, 2012
The Time-scales of Weather and Climate overlap Sunny Warm Air Satellite picture March 21, 2012, showing the blocking high and heat dome in place over the Great Lakes and East, and a slow-moving storm over the South Central states. Credit: NOAA. 42 Friday, March 30, 2012
The Time-scales of Weather and Climate overlap slower eastward progression of Rossby waves (Jet Stream) in the upper-level flow: 1) weakened E-W winds, and 2) increased wave amplitude. evident in autumn and winter consistent with sea-ice loss, also apparent in summer, possibly related to earlier snow melt on high-latitude land. more persistent wave patterns, which may lead to an increased probability of extreme weather events that result from prolonged conditions, such as drought, flooding, cold spells, and heat waves. Francis, J. A., and S. J. Vavrus (2012), Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid-latitudes, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L06801, doi:10.1029/2012GL05100. 43 Friday, March 30, 2012
Earth Days the state’s largest volunteer initiative 44 Friday, March 30, 2012
Arctic Amplificaiton Friday, March 30, 2012
Climate Temperature Change by 2099 Model Projections Scenario B 2000: globally harmonious B1 adoption of Kyoto Protocol A1 Scenario A2 2000: fossil fuel intensive business as usual A2 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, The science of climate change, 2007 Friday, March 30, 2012
albedo and solar heating Friday, March 30, 2012
Ice Albedo Feedback Reinforces Warming less sunlight reflected from the warming surface less persistent less persistent snow snow less sunlight warming reflected from the surface Friday, March 30, 2012
Ice Albedo Feedback Reinforces Cooling more sunlight reflected from the cooling surface more persistent more persistent snow snow more sunlight cooling reflected from the surface Friday, March 30, 2012
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