Barriers and opportunities: Approaches to sensitive LCS sectors ~ An - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Barriers and opportunities: Approaches to sensitive LCS sectors ~ An automotive industry’s view~ 14 February 2008 Masayuki Sasanouchi Toyota Motor Corporation 1

World Energy-related CO2 Emissions by Sector in the Reference Scenario (26 Billion Ton-CO2) O t h e r s 8 % （ 2 . 2 b i l l i o n - t o n ） 1 3 % P o w e r G e n e r a t i o n I n d u s t r y （ 3 . 3 b i l l i o n - t o n ） 4 0 ％ R e s i d e n t i a l 1 7 % R e s . （ 1 0 . 6 b i l l i o n - t o n ） T r a n s p o r t 1 2 % 1 8 % I n d u s t r y （ 5 . 3 b i l l i o n - t o n ） P u b l i c S e r v i c e （ I n d u s t r i a l 9 % p r o c e s s ） O t h e r s 7 ％ 2 0 % （ C a l c u l a t e d b y I E A d a t a ) （ 4 . 7 b i l l i o n - t o n ） 2

Kaya Identity CO 2 = CO 2 /E x E/GDP x GDP/P x P CO2: Total carbon dioxide emission E: Energy, P: Population CO 2 : Back casting target (-50% by 2050) GDP/P, P: To be projected (fundamental human rights) CO 2 /E, E/GDP: To be challenged (innovation, evolution, and deployment of technologies) 3

4 Growing World Population and Owned Vehicles Population （ Billion ） Owned Vehicles （ Billion ） 8.9 B 2 10 People 6.3 B 1.3 B Vehicles ○ people (Assuming 15% Ownership) ● 1.1 B Vehicles (13% 5 1 Ownership) ● 0.8 B Vehicles （ Ownership rate = 13 % ） 0 2003 2050 4

Economic Growth and Mobility Demand P a s s e n g e r T r a v e l a n d G D P b y R e g i o n : 1 9 5 0 - 1 9 9 7 3 0 0 0 0 a t i p a 2 5 0 0 0 N o r t h A m e r i c a C r e p 2 0 0 0 0 m k W e s t e r n E u r o p e - r 1 5 0 0 0 e g n e 1 0 0 0 0 s P a c i f i c O E C D s a I n d i a ( J a p a n , A u s t r a l i a ) P 5 0 0 0 C h i n a 0 5 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 5 0 0 0 G D P p e r c a p i t a , U S $ ( 1 9 8 5 ) 5 $ 1 = ¥ 250 (1985 Year) Source: WBCSD Mobility 2001

Projected CO2 Emission from Transport 6 with Combined Technology

Fuel Efficiency and Mass Trend 1.2 Specific fuel efficiency 1.1 2000 Japan 2000 EU 1.0 1990 US US Passenger cars 0.9 2000 Technology innovation 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 Mass Source : IEA “Review of International Policies fro Vehicle Fuel Efficiency” 7

Example:Japan Fuel efficiency standard(Front Runner Approach) Importance of Benchmarking Bottom Up >>Top Down -Improvement of engine efficiency e.g. Direct-injection engine, Reduction of friction loss, etc. -Improvement of driving-train e.g. Multiple AT (5AT, 6AT) -Dissemination of hybrid system Target year Target year Fuel-Economy Fuel-Economy Target Target Front- Front- (km/l) (km/l) Prospective Prospective runner runner technology technology Base year Base year improvement improvement Weight (kg) Weight (kg) Source: Japan MLIT Source: Japan MLIT 8

Example:Japan Fuel efficiency standard Status of Front Runner Approach 2 2 7 7 5 5 2 2 6 6 8 8 BAU BAU 2 2 6 6 5 5 2 2 6 6 2 2 2 2 5 5 5 5 M M M M t t - - C C O O 2 2 2 2 4 4 5 5 / / y y e e a a r r 2 2 3 3 5 5 2 2 2 2 5 5 2 2 1 1 7 7 2 2 1 1 5 5 9 9 0 9 0 9 1 9 1 9 2 9 2 9 3 9 3 9 4 9 4 9 5 9 5 9 6 9 6 9 7 9 7 9 8 9 8 9 9 0 9 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 2 0 2 0 3 0 3 0 4 4 Year Introduction of the Front Runner Standard - 9

Advantages of Plug-in Hybrid Car Electricity mix by country Well to Wheel CO 2 reduction Electricity mix by country Well to Wheel CO 2 reduction U S A Thermal Hydraulic Nuclear U S A Thermal Hydraulic Nuclear Well to Wheel CO Well to Wheel CO 100 % 100 % 1 . 0 1 . 0 G a s o l i n e G a s o l i n e J a p a n J a p a n （ （ 80 % 80 % P P r E 8 5 r E 8 5 i i u u s s F r a n c e F r a n c e 60 % 60 % ＝１ ＝１ C C 0 . 5 0 . 5 O O 2 2 2 2 40 % 40 % ） reduction ） reduction 20 % 20 % P r i u s P l u g i n H y b r i d C a r P r i u s P l u g i n H y b r i d C a r 0 % 0 % W h e n d r i v i n g f o r 2 5 k m ( 1 3 k m b y e l e c t r i c i t y ) USA Japan France USA Japan France （ T o y o t ae s t i m a t e s ) Social advantages: Well to Wheel CO 2 reduction is possible. Social advantages: Well to Wheel CO 2 reduction is possible. Combining with biofuel will further increase the effect. Combining with biofuel will further increase the effect. 10

“Parallel Approach” The Ultimate Eco-car Ｆ Ｃ Ｈ Ｖ Ｆ Ｃ Ｈ Ｖ Hybrid Hybrid Hybrid Technology Hybrid Technology Direct Fuel Direct Fuel CNG CNG EV EV Diesel DI Diesel DI injection. injection. VVT- -i i VVT Alternative Diesel Gasoline Electricity fuel 11