P OTOMAC AND R APPAHANNOCK T RANSPORTATION C OMMISSION FY 2016 Proposed PRTC Budget Public Hearing(s) Presentation Manassas City Hall on March 12, 2015 @ 7 PM PRTC Transit Center on March 10, 2015 @ 7PM
Background • Conforms in large measure to FY 2016 budget guidelines PRTC Board adopted in September 2014 • Austerity-minded because of major funding uncertainties, compelling conservative assumptions – Federal funding remains flat – State funding shrinks by 10% in FY 2016 and more dramatically beginning in FY 2018 – Maximum allowable commuter benefit remains unchanged • Revenues as assumed match expenses for only one year (FY 2016)
Background (continued) • Beyond FY 2016, there is growing shortage of Prince William local funding – Only assured source is the 2.1% motor fuels tax – Shortage sized by assuming no service cuts and “normal” cycle of fare increases every-other-year in the out years of the six-year plan • Sets stage for Prince William policy decision(s) – does Prince William – Supplement motor fuels tax as necessary to sustain transit services or – Compel service cuts beginning in FY 2017 by deciding on lesser supplement or no supplement at all
Proposed FY 2016 Budget - Elements • Operating – Bus Service Levels – Proposed Route One OmniRide elimination – Proposed Fare Increase – Other Services • Capital – Rolling Stock – Facility Improvements – Technology Enhancements
Bus Service Levels (FY 2016- FY 2021) • All existing services other than Route One OmniRide route sustained in FY 2016 – Further discussion of the one route elimination proposal later in presentation • Only new services are state-sponsored per I-95 Express Toll Lanes transit / TDM plan) – Two routes to the Mark Center beginning in FY 2016 – Multiple services beginning in FY 2021
Route One OmniRide Route – Proposed for Elimination • Service is a single trip in the AM and in the PM • The least productive OmniRide route – Average daily ridership is 21.5 -- 15.4 on single AM trip and 6.1 on single PM trip • Alternate routes available – 40% of the AM boardings are at the Route 123 park- ride lot, which is also served by the Lake Ridge OmniRide routes – South Route One route is an alternative for riders at southern end of the route
Fare Increase Proposed for FY 2016 Single Trip Fares Fare Type Fare Change Service Type SmarTrip OmniLink Metro Direct OmniRide Existing Full Fare $1.30 $2.90 $5.75 Proposed Full Fare $1.40 $3.10 $6.20 Increase 7.69% 6.90% 7.83% Existing Reduced Fare $0.65 $1.80 $3.85 Proposed Reduced Fare $0.70 $1.90 $4.15 Increase 7.69% 5.56% 7.79% Cash OmniLink Metro Direct OmniRide Existing Fare $1.30 $3.60 $7.70 Proposed Fare $1.40 $3.85 $8.30 Increase 7.69% 6.94% 7.79% Existing Reduced Fare $0.65 $1.80 $3.85 Proposed Reduced Fare $0.70 $1.90 $4.15 Increase 7.69% 5.56% 7.79% Note: Reduced fare = senior (age 60)+ and disabled – current effective days and hours will not change
Fare Increase Proposed for FY 2016 Other OmniLink Ticket Types Ticket Type Fare Change Day Pass Weekly Pass Existing Fare $3.00 $12.00 Proposed Fare $3.25 $13.00 Increase 8.33% 8.33% Existing Reduced Fare $1.50 $6.00 Proposed Reduced Fare $1.60 $6.50 Increase 6.67% 8.33% Off-route Fare Existing Fare $1.30 Proposed Fare $1.40 Increase 7.69% Note: Reduced fare = senior (age 60+) and disabled - current effective days and hours will not change
Other Services • Last installment of local funding for Vanpool Alliance Program in FY 2016; financially self- supporting thereafter • Wheels-to-Wellness Program (PHF-funded taxicab subsidy for qualifying registrants’ health care access) ends unless additional PHF funding or other 100% grant funding is awarded
Rolling Stock Planned Bus Acquisitions - FY 2016 thru FY 2021 REPLACEMENTS FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021 45-foot OmniRide 0 34 0 8 5 10 40-foot OmniRide 4 0 1 0 0 0 30-foot OmniLink 0 0 0 1 0 16 NEW/EXPANDED SERVICE FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021 45-foot OmniRide 0 0 0 0 19 0 40-foot OmniRide 0 0 0 0 1 0 30-foot OmniLink 0 0 0 0 0 0 Planned Bus Mid-life Overhauls -- FY 2016 thru FY 2021 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021 45-foot OmniRide 11 8 4 4 5 0 40-foot OmniRide 0 1 0 13 0 0
Facility Improvements • Pay-go funding for construction assumed for westerly bus maintenance facility – $16 million of NVTA regional funding in FY 2016 – $8 million of DRPT funding – $2 million Federal (already secured) • Bus shelter program continues to be funded at prevailing level
Technology Enhancements • CAD/AVL system – Fully implemented in FY 2015 – Extended warranty for O&M applies to FY 2016 – Locally funded O&M in FY 2017 and beyond • SmarTrip successor – WMATA has awarded contract to Accenture – Presumption is that rest of regional partners (including PRTC & VRE) will migrate in this fashion later – Funding in FY 2016 confined to development of specs and cost estimate and technical assistance – No implementation funding programmed in out-years because cost is still an unknown quantity
Projects for Which Federal Funding Will Be Sought • PRTC is applicant for all such projects for itself and for VRE • A public review is required before application(s) can be entertained • Projects that PRTC intends to seek federal funding shown on next slide
Projects for Which Federal Funding Will Be Sought • PRTC Purchase of Buses • VRE Facilities Infrastructure Renewal • PRTC Bus Preventive • VRE Heavy Maintenance and Repair Maintenance Facility • PRTC TDM/Commuter • VRE Capital Fleet Replacement and Assistance Program Expansion • PRTC Bus Shelter Program • VRE Positive Train Control • PRTC Western Maintenance • VRE Lorton Station Platform Projects Facility Project • VRE Mid-Day Storage • PRTC Security Enhancements • VRE Spotsylvania Third Track • VRE Alexandria Station • VRE Grant and Project Management Platform • VRE Station Security Enhancements • VRE Track Lease/Improvement • VRE Signage/Lighting Enhancements Payments
FY 2016 Proposed Budget Description Admin OmniRide OmniLink Marketing Vanpool Total 0 10,488,900 849,700 0 0 11,338,600 Farebox 71,000 0 0 0 0 71,000 Reimbursements from VRE 1,464,600 11,826,200 3,488,700 198,500 890,400 17,868,400 State Grants 900 3,890,900 1,034,400 240,300 0 5,166,500 Federal Grants 0 0 0 100,000 0 100,000 Advertising Revenue 1,600 500 500 0 0 2,600 Interest 0 0 0 0 0 0 Bond Proceeds 0 11,880,000 3,960,000 0 0 15,840,000 NVTA Regional Money 0 753,900 29,100 0 0 783,000 Carryover Fed/State/Local Funds 0 0 0 0 389,600 389,600 Miscellaneous Revenue 271,200 6,970,400 7,641,900 659,500 191,900 15,734,900 Subsidy - PWC 22,200 0 314,300 18,200 0 354,700 Subsidy - Manassas 13,400 0 232,900 10,000 0 256,300 Subsidy - Manassas Park 73,400 0 0 0 0 73,400 Subsidy - Stafford 31,600 0 0 0 0 31,600 Subsidy - Fredericksburg 139,400 0 0 0 0 139,400 Subsidy - Spotsylvania 2,089,300 45,810,800 17,551,500 1,226,500 1,471,900 68,150,000 Total Revenue 1,666,400 1,525,300 1,640,800 359,900 162,700 5,355,100 Personnel and Fringe Benefits 156,900 14,875,400 8,246,000 803,900 212,200 24,294,400 Contractual Services 188,200 570,700 234,900 50,500 1,096,000 2,140,300 Other Services 14,400 25,800 23,300 6,800 1,000 71,300 Materials, Supplies, Minor Equipment 1,500 3,839,500 765,800 0 0 4,606,800 Fuel 61,900 24,974,100 6,640,700 5,400 0 31,682,100 Capital 2,089,300 45,810,800 17,551,500 1,226,500 1,471,900 68,150,000 Total Expenses
Further Observations about Prince William’s Local Funding Shortage • County’s 2.1% motor fuels tax revenue yield has for many years been less than County’s expenditure on bus and VRE (“the shortfall”) • Until FY 2008, County supplemented the motor fuels tax with a general fund appropriation, allowing a fuel tax reserve to be built up • Beginning in FY 2008, fuel tax reserve has been tapped to cover the shortfall
Further Observations on Prince William’s Local Funding Shortage (continued) • Fuel tax reserve exhausted after FY 2016, in part because of dramatic drop in fuel prices – Unlike the statewide fuel sales tax enacted by General Assembly in 2013, the 2.1% motor fuels tax has no protective floor – Without a floor, the 2.1% motor fuels tax yield mirrors fuel price changes • If a supplement is not reinstated in FY 2017, major service cuts will be unavoidable
The Projected Shortfall (Assuming Existing Service Levels & “Normal” Fare Increases) • Begins in FY 2017 when fuel tax reserve is fully depleted • Shortfall in FY 2017 is an estimated $6.95 million • Annual shortfalls grow thereafter – FY 2017 thru FY 2020 combined - $35.9 million – FY 2017 thru FY 2021 combined - $45.8 million
Next Steps • Related to proposed FY 2016 budget – Public comments compiled – Management assesses whether changes are warranted, and presents its final recommendations to the PRTC Board at its April 2015 meeting – Adopted actions take effect in July 2015 • Related to projected shortfall beginning in FY 2017 – Prince William Board makes policy decision that shapes FY 2017 budget – Public review process of changes as necessary
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