Con once certed ed Effor orts ts to o Mitigat tigate Covi vid-19 9 Risk General al Measures ures 1 8 Establishment of a COVID-19 Task Force to Accelerate Decentralized tests by increasing the number of Covid-19 Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Handling. test laboratories throughout Indonesia. 2 9 Extension of the emergency status for COVID-19 until 29 th Providing Designated Hospitals, including additional May 2020. designated hospital in Galang Island. 3 10 Permission for civil servants to work from home, while Utilization of four (4) of ten (10) Wisma Atlet Kemayoran maintaining the continuity of public services. Towers (former Athletes Hotel) as emergency hospital. Promoting massive prevention of the spread of Covid-19; Preparation of 606 health workers and 192 non-health 11 application of health protocols in public areas, public workers in Wisma Atlet Kemayoran and recruitment of 328 4 transportation, and offices; calls for carrying out social medical volunteers and 2590 non-medical personnel in the distancing and the prohibition of carrying out activities that field of logistics and operations. involve large crowds. 12 5 Establishment of Contingency Plans in the regions level. Closing and limiting the mobility of Indonesian citizens abroad and foreigners to enter Indonesian territory with Preparation of drugs that have been used for Covid-19 13 strict immigration and health protocols. patients in China according to doctor's prescription. The 6 drug has been distributed to designated facilities and its Evacuation of Indonesian citizens from affected countries stock is continuously being augmented with domestic and strict quarantine processes with complete medical pharmaceutical production. facilities. 14 7 Speed up the procurement and distribution of personal Conducting Rapid Test in 17 provinces with positive patients protective equipment for designated hospitals and the of Covid-19. provision of incentives for medical personnel. 8
Government ernment Measur asures es to o Mitigat tigate e Covid vid-19 Risk Fisc scal and Non Fisc scal al Stimuli muli Fiscal l Stimuli li Phase e 1 Fiscal l Stimul muli i Phase e 2 1 Brought forward the launch of the Pre-Employment Card in 1 Relaxation of Income Tax (PPh Article 21). Bali, North Sulawesi and the Riau Islands. Increased disbursements of the Noncash Food Assistance 2 Program (BPNT) from IDR150,000 to IDR200,000 for a six- 2 Relaxation of Income Tax on Imports (PPh Article 22). month period commencing March 2020. 3 Provided a stimulus package for housing in the form of an IDR800 billion subsidy as well as a subsidy on down payments 3 Relaxation of Income Tax (PPh Article 25). totalling IDR700 billion. 4 4 Relaxation of Value Added Tax (VAT) Restitution. Provided incentives for domestic and international travellers. 5 Reduced the air passenger service fee (PSF) by 20% for March-May 2020. Non Non-Fisc iscal Stimuli li Discounted the price of aviation fuel at airports located 6 1 Reduce and simplify restrictions on export activities to around nine travel destinations for March-May 2020. maintain export performance and competitiveness. Subsidised or provided grants totalling IDR3.3 trillion to local 2 Reduce and simplify restrictions on import activities to ensure 7 governments affected by lower tax revenues food service the availability of raw materials. activities. 9
Bank Indonesia’s Meas easure ures to o Miti tigat gate Covi vid-19 9 Risk To mainta ntain n Monet etary y and Fina nanci ncial Mark rket t Stability Measu asures s Launched hed on March 2, 2020 Measu asures s Launched hed on March 18-19, , 2020 Strengthening the intensity of triple intervention policy to 1 Strengthening the intensity of triple intervention policy to 1 maintain rupiah exchange rate stability in line with the currency's maintain rupiah exchange rate stability in line with the fundamental value and market mechanisms. currency's fundamental value and market mechanisms Extending the SBN repo tenor to 12 months and providing daily 2 2 auctions to loosen rupiah liquidity in the banking industry. Reducing the foreign currency reserve requirement ratio for conventional commercial banks from 8% to 4%, effective 16 th March 2020. Increasing the frequency of FX swap auctions for 1, 3, 6 and 12- 3 month tenors from three times per week to daily auctions in order to ensure adequate liquidity. 3 Reducing the rupiah reserve requirement ratio by 50bps for Strengthening foreign currency term deposit instruments in order 4 banks engaged in export-import financing activity in to enhance foreign currency liquidity management in the coordination with the Government. domestic market. Expediting the enforcement of domestic vostro rupiah accounts 5 for foreign investors as underlying transactions for Domestic NDF, 4 Expanding the types of underlying transactions available to thus increasing hedging alternatives against rupiah holdings. foreign investors as hedging alternatives against rupiah Expanding the incentive of a 50bps looser daily rupiah reserve holdings in Indonesia. 6 requirement beyond banks that are engaged in export-import financing to include the financing of MSMEs and other priority sectors. 5 Global investors may utilise global and domestic custodian 7 Strengthening payment system policy to support COVID-19 banks for investment activity in Indonesia. mitigation efforts . Source: Bank Indonesia 10
Main Programs ograms & Strat rategies egies in Facing ng the Covid id-19 Pa Pandemic demic MAIN PROGR GRAMS Two Strat ategi gies s Facing ng the Covid-19 9 Pan Pandemic Maintainin aining g Life e (Healt alth) h) Maintain aining ing Livelih elihood oods Safe Indonesi nesia – Indonesian are Safe From 1 Covid-19 • Support and help the • Overcoming/suppressing community viruses and anticipating new cases 2 Healthy Indonesi nesia – Health Service Reform • Support and help Based On Mutual Cooperation affected businesses to • Expanding testing, re-open and expand quarantine and treatment capacity and • Priority for job creation, health protocols 3 Powerful ul Indonesi nesia – People's Purchasing assistance, upskill • Get medicine, and do Power Improvement Program • Maintaining the research availability of liquidity and financial system • Increase capacity and safety nets services in the health Growing Indonesi nesia a – Program For Increasing 4 sector State Revenue • Public infrastructure investment, both hard • Planning vaccine and network production and infrastructure distribution Work rking ng Indonesi nesia – Workforce Acceleration 5 Program Covid id-19 9 Hand ndling ling Task k Force ce Nationa ional l Econo nomic mic Recover overy y & Transf nsfor ormati mation on Task sk Force ce Source: Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs 11
COVID ID-19 9 Ha Handl ndling ng and d National ional Eco conomic omic Reco cover ery y Commit mittee: ee: Integrating Economic and Health Policies • Presiden Joko Widodo has signed Presidential Regulation No.82/2020 on the Covid-19 Response and National Economic Recovery Committee, enacted on July 2020 • The government hopes that all efforts and steps in formulating and implementing programs and policies can be carried out in a more coordinated and integrated manner, so that they can accelerate national economic recovery and save the economy from potential economic crises. COMMITT MMITTEE E COMPOS OSIT ITION ION Chair airman an Coordinat inating ng Minis ister of of Economic ic Affair airs PRESIDENT Vice Chairman I Coordinating Minister for Maritime and Investment Vice Chairman II Coordinating Minister for Politics, Law and Security Vice Chairman III Coordinating Minister for Human Development and Culture Policy Committee Vice Chairman IV Minister of Finance (Chairman: Coordinating Minister of Vice Chairman V Minister of Health Economic Affairs ) Vice Chairman VI Minister of Home Affairs Chief Executive Minister of State-owned Enterprises Executive Secretary I Raden Pardede Executive Secretary II Secretary of Economic Affairs TASKS National Economic COVID-19 Handling Recovery and Preparing Integrate and determine Monitor and Task Force Transformation Task Force strategic policy the steps for evaluate the (Chairman: Head of BNPB) recommendation implementing strategic implementation of (Chairnan: Vice Minister BUMN I) s to the President strategic policies policies and the necessary breakthroughs Source: Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs 12
Illust ustration ration of Health lth And Economic nomic Recover ery y In One Wheel Brake Health Safety Net Gas s Pedal Need to step ep on the brakes Social Safety Net to suppre ppress (contai tain) n) the Real Sector Safety Net covid-19 9 conta tagio gion ed : : Brake e flui uid Oil/Gas Oi as Need Source of funding Medicine Health Workers Make sure the drain is Vaccine smooth and doesn't leak Strong ong TBELT : : Driver safety while driving SEATB Step ep on The Gas! Brak ake Financial Sector Safety Nets Source: Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs 13
Econom omic ic Recover ery and Covid vid-19 Handlin ndling g Requir uires es a Medium um- Term rm Plan n (up up to 2023/202 024) 4) Source: Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs 14
Commi mmitt ttee's ee's Prior iorit ity y Polic licies/Pr ies/Program ogram 1. 1. Health althy Ind ndone nesia sia Public trust Activity increases Public consumption increases Main n Key Drivi ving ng invest stment ent Capacity utilization incre creases ases 2. 2. Work rking ing Indone nesia sia Purchasing power of the middle to lower class increased Public consumption incre creases ses Creati ting jobs Driving ving investme estment nt Capacity utilization incre creases ases 3. 3. Growing ing Indone nesia sia Socio-economic Transformation. Don't waste the opportunity to carry out this post- pandemic transformation Source: Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs 15
Main Program ogram Polic licy y Matrix rix: : Timetable table and Inten ensit sity Source: Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs 16
The Lates est t Programs ograms under er Nation ional al Economic nomic Recover ery Wage Subsidy Assistance Program • An expansion program for (BSU) for Workers (Private providing loans to Escalation of labor-intensive Employees): households and victims of programs (mainly PUPR, layoffs with an interest of Agriculture, Rural). The Labor • Wages under IDR. 5 million, who 0% using an expanded Intensive Program, which is are under pressure due to Covid- KUR scheme already running, can soon be 19, expanded in intensity, so as to • Active workers (paying dues) BPJS reduce unemployment pressure TK, the process of cleansing BPJS The initial stage is with a • and increase people's income TK data as much as 15.7 million target of reaching 2 million and purchasing power *. customers by 2020. With an estimated loan ceiling • Payment of IDR 600,000 per of IDR 6-10 million . month for 1 worker for 4 months in 2 stages (Q3 and Q4). Source: Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs 17
Government ernment Suppor ort t for or MSMEs Es Durin ing g the he Covi vid-19 9 Pan Pandem emic In the form of relaxation of asset quality assessments, postponement of principal & interest subsidies, low-interest working capital loans guaranteed by Askrindo and Jamkrindo, tax incentives for MSMEs borne by the government, and Productive Presidential Assistance for Micro Enterprises WORKING CAPITAL CREDIT MSMEs CREDIT RESTRUCTURING POSTPONEMENT OF PRINCIPAL & 3 LOW INTEREST ASSET QUALITY 2 1 INTEREST SUBSIDIES ASSESSMENT Placement of Rp30 Trillion Government Funds KUR Super Mikro : Loan up to IDR 10 million at Bank Himbara According to POJK No. 11/POJK.03/2020 & • Interest subsidy will be 19%, debtors pays 0% 14/POJK.05/2020 interest from Aug – Dec 2020. 4 GUARANTEE KUR MKM (SMEs): Asset Quality Government support in the form of guarantees Arrangement: Loan up to Rp10 million up to IDR 500 million by Askrindo and Jamkrindo • Loans ≤ IDR 10 billion can Postponement of installments and a 6% interest subsidy for the period from Apr-Dec 2020 to 0%. be based only on the OTHER SUPPORT • accuracy of principal / Loan > Rp500 million up to IDR 10 billion interest payments Income Tax for MSMEs is borne by • Postponement of installments and interest 5 Government subsidies from 3% to 3% for the period Apr-Jun Restructurisation: 2020 and interest subsidies from 2% to 4% for the MSMEs receive a final PPh rate of 0.5% (PP The credit quality for period Jul-Sep 2020. 23/2018) borne by the government (DTP). affected debtors is UMi, Mekaar, Pegadaian (Pawnshop) determined to be current • Postponement of principal installments and interest since restructuring MICRO BUSINESS PRODUCTIVE subsidies for 6 months from Apr-Sep 2020 6 PRESIDENT ASSISTANCE The restructuring is carried • Fintech Loan, Co-op, Farmers, LPDB, LPMUKP, out without a ceiling limit / Direct assistance to 12 million Micro-Business UMKM PEMDA type of financing Actors in the amount of IDR 2.4 million per • Relaxation is given a 6% interest subsidy for 6 recipient months Source: Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs 18
Integration egration of Various ious Types s of Social al Assis sistanc tance e and Finan ancing cing for Sup uper er Micro o and nd MSMEs Es is Cont ntinu inually ally Enc ncou ouraged raged • Super micro, micro and small businesses that are un-bankable have begun to be empowered by the Government with the Productive Presidential Assistance & Pre-Work Card programs, while the BUMN through the partnership and community development program (PKBL) and private parties with CSR. • KUR Super Micro scheme, people enjoy loans with 0% interest until December 31, 2020. Meanwhile, People's Business Credit (KUR) for micro small and medium enterprises (UMKM) is given a subsidy of 6% until 31 Dec 2020 A Fully commercialloan B Commercial Financing Patterns Special schemeof Subsidizedloan commercialloan Rolling softloan C D CSR Social E Assistance F Bankable Unbanked MSMEs Financing Partnership and Community Productive Presidential People's Business Credit KUR Super Mekaar UMi Commercial Development Program (PKBL) & Assistance & Pre- Micro (KUR) Regular BWM LPDB* Private CSR employment Card Facilities Government Market Interest Subsidy from the Social grants Private PKBL & CSR Funds Guarantee Mechanism Government Business Ability *Fostering Prosperous Family (Mekaar), Micro Waqf Bank (BMW), Ultra Micro (UMi), Revolving Fund Management Agency (LPBD) Source: Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs 19
Exit it Strat rategy egy The Urgency of Exit Strategy for Indonesia The Indonesian economy is experiencing very heavy pressures, both in the supply side (business, industry - production) and in the demand side (people's purchasing power - consumption) Health Issues Potential Economic and/or Financial Crisis Potential Social Problems. The e possib ibili ility of shiftin ing comm ommunit ity grou oups New Normal l Imple lementa ntati tion n in Indone nesia sia due e to prolo olonged ed loc ockdown New ew Norm ormal al is a Scenario to Maintain a Balance between Health Aspects that must be safeguarded, and Social-Economic Aspects that must continue to maintain welfare (livelihood) Vulner nerable le commu munit nity The New Normal al Scenar nario io is is implem lemen ented ed by by: Low ow saving Inform ormal al sector or Data-based Public Health Indicators: Epidemiology Poverty y Poor or People le Public Health Surveillance Line Health Care Facilities which becomes a Neces essary ry Condit ition ion that must be met. Inform ormal l sector or Requires readiness from the Public Sector to be opened : 56.50% or 74.03 million Indonesian Savings and the accumulation of Health protocol (SOP) in each public sector work in informal sectors with an average wealth to survive (especially informal Community awareness, compliance and discipline income of USD 100 – 200 per month. workers) are very small • The fiscal capacity of the state is very limited • The Government is unable to fund all communities affected by COVID-19. Social Aid is prepared within a limited period (3 months, 6 months) Source: Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs 20
New Normal mal Achieving Productive and Safe Indonesia from Covid-19 Necess ssary y Conditi ditions ns New Prot otoc ocol (General al) • Covid id-19 Cases Under the Decree of the Minister of Health (KMK) number HK.01.07 / MENKES / 328/2020, the new ► A declining number of cases, number of suspects, and protocol includes: deaths within 14 days ► Rt < 1 Make sure to clean your hands with soap and • Monit itori oring g of the virus s / P Public ic Healt lth clean water ► The number of tests and contact tracing increases (not only in big cities but also in regions) ► The application of the use of masks is increasingly Wear a mask when doing activities outside expanded (mask for all) (mask for all) • Health th servic ices es capacit ity ► Medical personnel, PPE ► Availability of drugs, ICU room, ventilator Apply physical distancing (1.5 - 2 m) • Business ess secto tor r prepara rati tion on ► Establishing new SOPs/guidelines at work (temperature measurement, masks at work, distance keeping, etc.) Self-isolation if exposed to positive cases and • Public lic Respons nse illness ► Discipline the application of new protocols for activities ► Submission of information that is accurate, official and transparent by the government to the public Temperature check-in each building Source: Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs 21
Econ onom omic ic Activiti tivities es Bega gan n to o Rise e Fol ollo lowing wing the he Nationa ional l Econ onomic omic Reco covery y and New w Nor ormal mal Prog ograms ms Started June 2020, a number of indicators began to show positive signals of improvement in economic activity such as manufacturing PMI, Consumer Confidence Index, Retail Sales and Car Sales, Business Activity Survey, and Consumer Price Index Vehicle Sales Retail Sales Growth (%YoY) Indonesia Manufacturing PMI 800 0,0 15 55 10 -20,0 46,9 600 50 5 -40,0 -59,1 400 45 0 -60,0 -5 40 200 -80,0 -12,3 -10 35 0 -100,0 -15 30 -20 27,5 25 -20,6 -25 Motorcycle Sales (thousand) Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20f Car Sales (%YoY) - rhs Core Inflation Business Activity Survey Consumer Confidence Index 0,5 3 15,00 140 0,4 2,5 130 10,00 0,3 2 120 5,00 0,2 110 1,5 0,00 0,1 100 -5,1 86,2 0 1 -5,00 90 Jan Feb Mar Apr Mei Jun Jul Ags Sep Okt Nov Des 80 -10,00 77,883,8 70 -15,00 2020 (%, yoy) 2018 -13,1 2019 2020 Source: Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs 22
Protocols cols in Every y Economic omic-Socia Social l Sect ctor or Sec ector or Prot otoc ocol Impo mportan tant Point GENERA RAL Decree of the Minister of Health (KMK) number HK / 01.07 Regulate: / MENKES / 328/2020 about Covid-19 Prevention and • Rules at Work Control Guidelines in Office and Industrial Workplaces in • Rules for Workers Supporting Business Sustainability in Pandemic Situations • Alleged Covid-19 Management (OTG, PDP, ODP, or Confirmation) • Coordination between workplace and Regional Government INDUSTRY Minister of Industry Circular No.4 / 2020 about Regulate: Implementation of Factory Operations in the Corona Virus • Rules for Industrial Estates Disease-19 Public Health Emergency • Rules for Workers • Cleaning and Disinfection Guide • Social Distancing Guide TOURIS RISM Standard Operational Procedure (SOP) is in the process of Arranging SOPs for Hotels, Homestay, Restaurants, Travel harmonization with the Task Force Attractions, Art Venues, Film Production, TV Coverage TRANSP SPOR ORTATION ION Transportation Minister Regulation No.18 of 2020 about Regulate: Transportation Control in order to Prevent the Spread of • Transportation control for the whole region Covid-19 Virus • Transportation control in areas designated as PSBB (Large- scale Social Restrictions) • Transportation control for homecoming activities in 2020 TRADE • SOP on Health Protocol for Modern and Regulate: People’s /Traditional Market and Retail - Ministry of Trade • Rules in the Market Environment • Protocol on Prevention of Covid-19 Distribution in • Rules for Traders and Management Shopping Centers - Source: Association of Indonesian • Rules for Consumers Shopping Center Management • Operating Time Source: Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs 23
Govern ernment ment Measure ures s to Mitigat igate e Covid id-19 Risk Government Regulation In UU 2/2020, Previously Perppu No.1 2020 Regulat ates es two topi pics: s: (1) Nationa nal Budget t (APBN) and (2) Fina nanci ncial Sector or Policy Finan ancial ial Sect ector or Polic icy Natio ional al Budget t (APBN) N) 1. Relaxation Deficit exceeds 3%, but starting in 2023 it returns to the maximum level of 3%. 1. Improved Coordination among KSSK members 2. Relaxation is related to the allocation/reallocation of 2. Provide the necessary authority to 4 institutions to expenditure between institutions, between functions, and prevent a crisis (forward looking) in the KSSK forum for between programs and mandatory spending. example to issue instruments, BI buys SUN on the primary 3. Relaxation of allocation / reallocation of Regional market, lending to LPS and OJK may request a merger or Government Expenditures. consolidation of Financial Services Institutions. 4. Lending to LPS. 3. Foreign exchange management (LLD) management for 5. Issuance of SUN and SBSN can be purchased by BI, BUMN, residents coIDRorate investors and / or retail investors. 6. Use of alternative budget sources for example SAL, 4. Increase public confidence without causing moral hazard. education endowment funds, and funds managed by the Public Service Agency. 7. Taxation Policy: a) Decrease in CoIDRorate Income Tax Rates gradually to 20% starting in 2022; b) Taxation Incentives in the Capital Market for public ownership <40%; c) Taxation of Electronic Transactions; d) Extension of tax administration time; e) Customs facilities in the context of COVID-19. Source: Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs 24
Govern ernment ment Measure ures s to Mitigat igate e Covid id-19 Risk Budget Refocusing Policy I. I. Pr Pres esid ident ntial Regula latio ion (Perp rpres res) No No 7/2020 2020 on on Tas askforce to to Mana nage CO COVID-19 19 Outb tbrea eak → Rene newed th through Pres eside dentia ial Regula lation (Per erpr pres es) No No 9/2020 1. Answer to the President → Director (Chair: Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs) and Implementer (Chair: Head of Indonesian National Board for Disaster Management), focusing on accelerating the mitigation of COVID-19 through synergy between ministries and government 2. Funding comes from the state budget, regional budget, and other legal sources II. II. Pres Pr esid ident ntial Ins nstru ruction on (In Inpres res) No No 4/2020 2020 con oncern rning Refocus using of of Activiti ties es, Reallo locatio ion of of Minist istry/Agency Bud udget, and nd Pr Procurem ement nt of of Goods ods an and Ser ervices es in in th the Framework of of Mitiga gatin ing COVID-19 19 Outbreak ak and Min inis istr try of of Fin inance Circula lar (SE) E) No No 6/2020 on on Ref efoc ocusing ng Acti tivity and nd Reall ealloc ocation on of of Mini Ministry/Agen ency Budge udget in in the the Frame ramework of of Miti Mitigati ting CO COVID ID-19 19 Outbre Outbreak ak 1. Minister / Head of Institution prioritizes the use of budget allocations for the acceleration of mitigating COVID-19 outbreak in accordance with COVID-19 Handling Protocol 2. Done through a budget revision mechanism (done quickly, simply and accountably) III. I. Poli olicy to to sup uppor ort ef effor orts to to adj adjus ust region regional allo allocat ations ns and and relax relax trans transfers rs for or handli handling Co Covid vid-19 19 1. Minister of Finance Regulation (PMK)19/2020 concerning Distribution and Use of Profit Sharing Fund (DBH), General Allocation Fund (DAU), and Regional Incentive Fund (DID) budget year 2020 in the context of COVID-19 Countermeasures; 2. Minister of Finance Decree (KMK) 6/2020 concerning Distribution of Physical Special Allocation Fund (DAK) on Health and Health Operational Assistance (BOK) in the framework of Prevention and/or Handling of COVID-19; 3. Ministry of Home Affairs Regulation (Permendagri) 20/2020 on acceleration of COVID-19 Mitigation in the Scope of Regional Government IV. Govern rnmen ent Regulat ation on Num umber er 23 23 of of 2020 for Im Imple lemen entat ation of of the Nati tional al Econ onomic Recover ery Pr Progr gram in in the Cont ntext of of Sup Suppor orti ting St Stat ate Fi Finan nancial al Poli olicies es for or Han Handli dling Cor Corona ona Virus irus Dise isease ase 2019 (CO COVID ID-19 19) and and / or or Fac acin ing Threa hreats ts that that Harm Harm Nati tion Source: Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs 25
Apart t from financial ancial suppo port, t, affected d MSME work workers are also encourage aged d to take advant antage age of the pre re-empl ployme yment nt card progra ram 1 Train aining ing Fee e Assistan istance: IDR1.000.000 2 Total tal benefit efits s per benefic eficiary: iary: Train aining ing Incen entiv tives: es: IDR600.000/month IDR3.550.000 550.000 for 4 months 3 Job b Surve vey Incen entiv tives: s: Target Beneficiaries IDR50.000/survey for 3x survey and the realization Covid Scheme me Initi tial l sche heme Target get recip ipient ient +/- 5.6 .6 million lion people le The target et recip ipie ient nt is 2 million lion people le Priorit ritiz ize e : • • Job seekers Employees who are laid off / laid off * • • Workers / Laborers affected by layoffs Affected UKM actors • Workers who need increased competence *To be more precise on target, data from Ministries / Institutions including BPJS Ketenagakerjaan is needed Realiz lization ion Within in 5 Months nths 506 thousand 506 >13 13 >1,4 and Participants complete the training Million lion regis istrants rants Million lion recip ipien ients ts of 513 Districts / Cities Pre-employment Card 490 490 thousand and Participants have received incentives Source: Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs 26
Fiscal cal Incentiv tives: es: Super Deduction For Research & Development Income ome Tax Law w (Law w No.7/ 7/1983 1983 jo. . Law No. 36/201 2018) The Go The Governme ment develo elopin ing a su super de deduction ion tax ax sc scheme me to to pr provi vide de busin sines esse ses wi with in incen centiv tives es to to condu onduct res esear arch an and de developmen elopment in in Article 35: the the hopes of of spurrin ing innovat ation ion Matters that have not been sufficiently regulated by law are further regulated by Object ct Subje ject Government Regulation Domestic coIDRorate taxpayers who Certain R&D activities in carry out certain research and Indonesia, the costs of which are development (R&D) activities in Law No. No. 45/20 /2019 charged within a certain period. Indonesia. Article 29C: Facility for reducing gross income for domestic Amount unt of facilit ities es (pro roposed) posed) taxpayers condu onducti ting ng cer ertain ain res resear earch and and develop velopmen ent activities in Indonesia Stages es RPMK The maximum gross income reduction facility is 300% of the cost Real Cost 100% Further arrangements through technical regulations Addit ditional ional: - Commercialisasion 100% - Registration of Intellectual Property Rights (IPR) in the form of 50% Tec echn hnical ical Regulati lations (RP RPMK MK) Patents or Plant Variety Protection Rights (PVT) in the country - Registration of IPR abroad / product innovation 25% In the process of coordinating the drafting of the - Collaboration with government / private R&D institutions 25% Minister of Finance Regulation (IDRMK) with the Tot otal al 300% Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Research and Technology, and the Ministry of Industry Source: Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs 27
Medium um-Term erm Nation ional al Developm lopmen ent t Plan n (RP RPJM JMN) 2020-2024 President’s Vision: "The Establishment of an Advanced Sovereign, Independent and Personality Based on Mutual ual Coopera rati tion". n". Presid esident ‘s Missions Top 5 Presid esidentia tial l Prio ioriti ities s 7 7 RP RPJM JMN N De Development Agenda Improvin ing the Qualit ity of the Indon onesia esian Labou our HR HR 1 1 Force ce Stren ength then ening ing Econ conomi omic c Resi esilien ence ce to Develo lopmen ent Achie ieve Superio perior Econ onomi omic Growth owth Achiev ievin ing Produ oducti ctive, e, Indepen dependen ent t and d 2 Comp mpetit etitiv ive e Eco conomic mic Struct cture Devel elop oping ing Mor ore e Remo mote Region gions to to Reduce e Econ onomi omic Gaps ps and Improv ove Equa qualit ity Infrastruc ucture 2 Atta tain inin ing Equitabl quitable and Pros osperou perous Nati tion onal 3 Develo lopmen ent Develop elopme ment Impr prov ovement ment of Qualit ity and Achie ieving ing Sust staina inable Enviro ironment mental 4 Compet mpetit itiv ivenes ess of the e Labour Force ce Climat ate Regulat lation ion 3 Devel elop oping ing Cultu tural Prog ogres ess Simp mplif ific ication on 5 Enga gaging ing in Menta tal Revolu evoluti tion Reflecti ting g the Nation ion's Personalit ity and Cultu ture e Devel elop opmen ment Develop evelopin ing a Dignified ed and Trust stwor worth thy y Lega egal 6 Sys ystem em Free Free from om Cor orruption Stren ength then ening ing Infrastructu cture e to o Simplifi lifica cation ion of 4 Supp pport ort Econo conomi mic Devel velopm pmen ent t Bureau aucr cracy cy Protect otectio ion of All All Nati tion ons and and and Improv prove Basi sic Services ces 7 Prov ovision sion of Secu curit ity y to All Citizen ens Conse servati tion on of Enviro ironmen ment, t, Supp pporti ting Clima mate te Change, e, and Enhanci cing Disa saster ter Resil silie ience ce Attain ining Good od, , Ef Effecti ective, e, and and Econom omic c 8 5 Reliable Govern ernance Tran ansformation on Enhanci cing Polit itical, ical, Lega egal, Defen ense e and Stab ability ty and Transformi orming Public ic Servi vice ces Achie ieving ing Synerg ergy y of Gov overn ernmen menta tal 9 Framewo mework with the Region onal Governmen ent Source: National Development Planning Agency 28
Simplify plifying ing Regulat ulations ions throu ough gh Omnibu ibus s Laws Omnibus us Laws Group p a D Diverse Range of Issues sues into Legisl slati tion, n, Aimed d at Creati ting ng Jobs and Empoweri ering ng SMEs. s. Omnibus Law Pri Omni riori ority Sect ctors ors Financial T axes Labour Sector 1 6 Pillars of Omnibus Law w Perpa pajakan (Taxa xati tion on) 3) Personal Taxpayer 5) Equity of Business 1) Investment Funding 2) Territorial System 4) Taxpayer Compliance 6) Taxation Facility Investment 11 Cluster ters s of Omnibu bus s Law Cipta Lapa pangan Kerja (Job Creati tion on) ) 7) Government Administration 10) Government Investment and 4) Ease, Empowerment and Protection of MSMEs 1) Simplification ofLicensing Projects 8) Imposition of Sanctions 2) Investment Requirements 5) Ease of Doing Business 11) Economic Zone 3) Employment 9) Land Acquisition 6) Research and Innovation Support Following the inauguration of his second presidential term in October 2019, President Joko Widodo announced his administration’s plans to continue regulatory reform by focusing on initiatives such as developing a dynamic and qualified workforce, promoting industry cooperation through technology, further enhancing infrastructure development and economic reform as well as simplifying regulations and bureaucracy. To achieve such ends, President Widodo’s Government subsequently prepared three bills of omnibus laws, namely an omnibus bill on job creation, an omnibus bill on development and strengthening the financial sector and an omnibus bill on tax provision. Omnibus laws refer to laws that group diverse and unrelated issues which are drawn into a bill which is accepted in a single vote by a legislature. 1 Under discussion Source: Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs 29
The Economic omic Policy icy Pa Packages ages “To improve national industry competitiveness, export and investment to generate significant economic growth” Harmoni nizing ng Regul ulat ation ons Simplifying g Bureau eaucrat atic Proc oces ess Ensurin uring g Law Enfor nforceab eability Phase e I (9 (9 Sept pt ’15) Phase se IX (27 Jan ’16) Improving national industry competitiveness Accelerating electricity generation, stabilizing meat prices and Phase e II (29 Sept ’15) improving rural – urban logistics sector Easing permit requirement and simplifying export proceeds Phase e X (11 Feb ’16) requirement Revising the Negative investment List and improving protection Phase e III I (7 Oct t ’15) for SMEs Financial services facilitation, export financing and elimination of Phase se XI (29 29 Mar ’16) business unnecessary burden Stimulating national economy through facilitation to SMEs and Phase e IV (15 Oct t ’15) industries Social safety net and betterment of people welfare Phase e V (22 Oct t ’15) Phase e XII II (28 28 Apr ’16) Improving industry and investment climate through tax incentives and Improving Indonesia’s rank on Ease of Doing Business (EODB) deregulation on sharia banking Phase e XIII I (24 Aug ’1 6) Phase e VI (5 Nov ’15) Low Cost Housing for Low-Income Communities Stimulating economic activities in border areas and facilitating strategic commodities availability Phase e XI XI V (10 Nov ’1 6) Roadmap for E-commerce Phase se VII I (7 De Dec ’15) Stimulating business activities in labor-intensive industries nation-wide Phase e XV (15 Jun ’1 7) through incentives in the form of accelerating land certification process Improving logistics for individuals Phase e XVI (1 (16 Nov ’1 8) Phase se VIII II (21 De Dec ’15) Improving the competitiveness and domestic economy Resolving land acquisition disputes, intensifying domestic oil production, stimulating domestic parts and aviation industries In addit ition on to the 16 Policy icy Packages kages, , on Augus ust 31, 2017 7 the Gover ernment nment has issued sued a Presi sident ential ial Regulat ulation ion No.91/2017 1/2017 for enhanc ancing ing busines siness s license cense service ice stand ndard ard Source: Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs 30
Enhan ancing cing Busin ines ess s License nse Servic ice e Stand andar ard Presi side dent ntial al Regulati ation n to Ac Accelerat rate Ease of Doing ng Busi siness ness has been launche ched Improve efficient, streamlined, & Provide business licensing Overcome the barriers to integrated business license service process assurance in terms of doing business in standards the costs and lead times Indonesia cy Goals 2 4 6 3 5 1 Policy Accelerate the business Increase coordination & synergy Implement integrated licensing process (single licensing process between central & regional submission) government nd Phase st Phase 2 nd 1 st Forming a Task Force to identify & Business license overcome the end-to-end licensing regulatory reforms Main Policy cy barriers Implementing a licensing checklist for Implementation of the Special Economic Zones (KEK), Free Single Submission Trade Zones (FTZ), Industrial Zones & system Tourist Zones Utilizing data sharing Note: 1 st and 2 nd Phase are implemented in parallel Source: Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs 31
Improving ing Invest estment ment Climat mate Online e Single le Submiss missio ion (OSS) Has Been en Launched hed.. ... OSS is a web eb-base based d busines iness s licensin sing system tem intende ded d to cut the red ed tape e invo volv lved d in obtainin taining business s permit mits and integ egrated ated betwe tween en the centr tral al gove vernme ment t and regio ional al admin ministra stratio ions Secto tors rs Lorem Ipsum Enviro ironment ment & Public lic Works & Electr tric icit ity Indus ustry ry Sector tor Health th Sector or Suitable for all Forest stry ry Secto tor Housing ng Sector tor Secto tor category, Infor ormation ation & Marine ne & Fishery ery Medic icine ine & Transporta ortation ion Trade e Sector tor Commun unic icati ation on Secto tor Food d Sector or Secto tor Secto tor Other r Sector or The Adva vanta tage ge of Using g OSS Business licenses can Standardized Ellectronically be secured in under an business licenses integrated hour are available The whole licensing Accessible at More practical process is monitored by anytime and the Task Force anywhere Source: Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs 32
Improving ving Investmen stment t Clima imate …Bonded Logistic Center to Improve Indonesia’s Competitiveness Bonded Logistic Center To dat To ate, e, 52 Bond onded ed Log Logis istic tic Cen enter er has has be been en lau launche hed to to suppor ort var ario ious us industries stries. (Pusat Logistik Berikat/PLB) is a facility provided by Ministry of Finance as part of the Small ll and Food d & implementation of the 1 st Economic mediu ium m beverages verages indus ustry y indus ustry Policy Package. Personal Pe onal Oil il and care/ ga gas, s, and PLB facility aims to improve home care e mining ing Synthet thetic ic efficiency and reduce the cost of industry indus ustry textile le transportation and logistics in Auto- (chem emic ical al motive ive Indonesia; support the growth of the substanc ances) indus ustry ry industry. . domestic industry, including small Textile ile Heavy vy (cott otton on) and medium industries; increase Equip uipmen ent t indus ustry indus ustry investment; and to make Indonesia Aircraf raft t to become a logistics hub in Asia MRO RO Defen ence Pacific. indus ustry indus ustry 33
Improving ving Investmen stment t Clima imate e …revising the Negative Investment List Introduc roduction tion of New Foreign reign Owners ership ip Regula lati tion on for Stra rategi tegic c Sectors ctors Sports Center, Pharmace ceutica ical l Raw Materia ials ls Cold storage ge Restaurants, s, Bars Film Proces essi sing g Lab, Crumb Rubber Manufact cturing After Before After Before After Before After Before 100% 100% 100% 100% 33% 85% 49% 51% Priva ivate e Museum, m, Caterin ing, g, apparel el Toll l Road Operator or, Distrib ibutio ion, Warehousi sing Key Reforms ms in Negative e Foreign ign Manufact cturing, g, Exhibit bitio ions s & Teleco comm mmunica icatio ion Testin ing g Company Investmen estment t List st Conventio ions Before After Before After Before After Revision ision of "Partn tnership ip" catego egory y to refer to partn tners ership p with Micro, o, Small and Medium m Ente terprises ses (MSMEs) s) 100% 67% 67% 95% 33% 51% Grandfath ther er Law: w: If a parti ticu cular sector tor is tightened tened in future, e, existi ting g foreign gn Profess essio ional l Train inin ing, g, Golf Course Management, Air Teleco comm mmunica icatio ion Provi vider er invest estor r does s not t need to compl ply y with Transp spor ort Support Service ices, s, Travel el Bureau Consult ltancy cy for Construct ctio ion 1 with Integrated ed Service ices tighter ter stake Before After Before After Before After Stren ength then en implementa mentati tion on of nega gati tive investmen estment t law throu ough active ive roles es from ministr strie ies, s, agen encie ies s and regiona ional 67% 67% 67% 49% 55% 65% gov overnments ments 1 For total project value of IDR10bn and above Source: Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM) 34
Investment estment Realization lization (Q2-20 2020) 0) Direct rect Inves estm tmen ents ts Top p 8 FDI I Reali lizatio zation by Sectors tors (Q2-2020 vs Q2-2019) 2019) IDR tn Meta tal, , Except ept Mach chine inery ry, , 240 and Equipm ipmen ent Industry stry 220 FDI DDI TOTAL 191,9 US$1,326.8 ,326.8 mn mn 200 180 54.7% 160 94,3 Oth ther er Services ces 140 Electrici ectricity ty, , Gas, s, and 120 Water ter Supply pply 100 US$263.4 63.4 mn mn US$1,463.1 ,463.1 mn mn 80 23.5% 97,6 60 8.3% 40 20 0 Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2 Food od Industry try Mining ing 2017 2019 2020 2016 2018 2013 2014 2015 Investme stment nt US$504.3 04.3 mn mn US$391.6 91.6 mn mn 55.9% Realizat zation 41. 1.8% Rp159.4 9.4 T IDR21 210.7tn 0.7tn IDR191 91.9tn .9tn 434 434,463 463 375,982 37 ,982 Rp145.4 5.4 T Transpo porta rtation tion, , Ware rehouse, , * Decrea reasi sing Housi sing, g, Industria strial l Esta tate, te, 4.3% and Telec ecom ommunica cation tion and Offic ice e Build lding ing 9.6% 15.6% .6% US$648.5 48.5 mn mn US$526.2 26.2 mn mn Q2-2019 Q2-20 2020 20 31. 1.7% 15.3% 2016 Q1-2017 Q1-20 Q1-2016 Q1-2017 * person * on Chem emica cal l and IDR112.7tn Pharm rmaceu ceutic tical l Industry stry IDR98 98tn tn IDR97 97.6tn .6tn IDR94 94.3tn .3tn US$346.5 46.5 mn mn 11. 1.4% Decrea reasi sing Decrea reasi sing 1.4% 1. 7% Q2-20 2020 20 Q2-2019 Q2-20 2020 20 Q2-2019 Source: Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM), compared to Q2-2019 period 35
st Semest 1 st mester er 2020 Invest estment ment Reali lizat zation (excluding the upstream oil and gas sector and financial services) Investment Realization (1st Semester 2020) Domestic IDR402.6 T Investment (PDMN) IDR207.0 (51.4%) 49.3% Foreign Investment (PMA) IDR195.6T (48.6%) 2020 INVESTMENT REALIZATION TARGET IDR817.2 T Indonesian Workers’ Absorption (1st Quarter 2020) (2nd Quarter 2020) 303,085 263,109 Source: Investment Coordinating Board of the Republic of Indonesia 36
st Semest 1 st mester er 2020 Invest estment ment Reali lizat zation n Development lopment (excluding the upstream oil and gas sector and financial services) Investment Distribution By Geography Top 5 Investors (by country) (in USD million) IDR33.6 T (8.3%) IDR34.2 T IDR18.3 T (8.5%) (4.6%) Outside Java Java IDR193.7T 4,673.4 Singapura 2.723,3 IDR208.9 T Singapore (48.1%) (51.9%) 34.4% IDR97.4 T (24.2%) IDR208.9 T IDR10.2 T (51.9%) R.R. Tiongkok 1.285,9 2,426.5 China (2.5%) 17.9% Hongkong, By Sector Hong Kong By Location 1,797.1 634,1 RRT 13.2% East Java Primary IDR51T IDR52.1T (12.9%) Others Jepang 604,2 (12.7%) 1,213 Japan IDR192.9 T 8.9% (47.9%) West Java IDR57.9T Malaysia 480,0 795.6 Malaysia (14.4%) 5.9% DKI Jakarta Secondary IDR50.2T Riau Tertiary Central Java IDR129.6T(32.2%) Lainnya 1.076,0 (12.5%) Others IDR22.8T IDR220.9T(54.9%) 2,677.6 IDR27.8T (5.6%) 19.7% (6.9%) Source: Investment Coordinating Board of the Republic of Indonesia 37
Poten enti tial al Investmen stment t Realization lization Reaches hes IDR 708 T T Compa panie ies s that t had been n fa facilita cilitated: ed: ±Rp 410 T IDR 708 T IDR 211.9T IDR61.2T (58%) Potential The potential value IDR38.0T Investment IDR39.2T facilitated (Tanjung Jati Realization Power) IDR21.7T IDR14.0T Solving stalled investment issues is one strategy to attract investors IDR5.2T IDR9.5T Bengkulu Electric Power IDR1.8T (Galempa Bersama) IDR2.0T Sejahtera IDR1.8T PT Sumber Klat laten en, , Centr tral Dumai ai, , Riau IDR1.8T Mutiara Indah Java Perdana (SMIP) Indonesian government does not only facilitates large IDR1.4T Others investment issues, but also medium & small investments IDR1.1T Source: Investment Coordinating Board of the Republic of Indonesia 38
Strat rategy egy to Maintain ntain Investmen estment t Clima imate e Durin ing g COVID VID-19 Pa Pandem emic ic Investmen estment t inquir quiries es fa faci cilit itat ation on of existi sting ng operati ting ng 1 compani nies es Investmen estment t pot otent ntia ial fa facil ilita tati tion on from existin sting g compa pani nies es 2 not ot yet et been en execu cuted ed 3 Bring g in new investmen estments ts 4 Providing incentives for existing companies’ expansion Source: Investment Coordinating Board of the Republic of Indonesia 39
Investment estment Realization lization Facilitation litation Servic vices es During ing COVID ID-19 Pa Pandemic ndemic Compa panie ies s Operati ration on Suppor ort 1 Optimizing facilitation for companies that accelerate the development and operation of business activities through the issuance of letters of support to companies while still observing the COVID-19 protocol Visa Recommen ommendat ation ions s for Compa pany Leaders 2 Providing Visa recommendations for foreign companies’ leader visit to related to their industry exploration /relocation and company operations. Including to obtain an entry permit / visit visa during large scale social restriction (PSBB). Visa recommen mmendations dations for foreign ign skilled ed worker ers 3 Providing Visa recommendations for foreign skilled workers who will enter the country related to their investment realization / implementation Escor orti ting ng Existin ting Inves estm tment nt Realization ization 4 Conduct visits to companies (for example visiting Hyundai and Bonded Zone) to spur existing investment in addition to fiscal incentive facilitation Optimi imizat ation ion of Busi sine ness ss Licensi nsing ng Services ices 5 BKPM continues to provide business licensing services amid the COVID-19 Pandemic. The average business license issued during the pandemic both online and offline is 4000-5000 permits per day. Source: Investment Coordinating Board of the Republic of Indonesia (BKPM) 40
Section Se tion 2 Econom onomic ic Factor or: Stable le Growth wth Prospect spects Amid id Tempo empora rary y Mode derati tion on
Condu duciv cive e Envir ironmen onment t Under Un derpinn inning ing Stable ble Growth wth Fun undamen damental tals s Am Amid d Tempora porary y Modera derati tion on Tax base e to be 4th Most Populous us Budget et reform m as a a broadened ed from m part t of larger ger Larges gest Economy in count ntry in the one reduce e economi omic c reform South h East Asia World ld; 64% in dependen ency cy on initiative iative produc uctiv ive age commod moditi ties es Large e and Stable table Consis sisten tent Econ onomy omy Fuel subsi sidie ies s Budget et Refor form Rising ing Middle le Clas ass sign gnifican icantl tly y reduce ced Manag ageab eable le Pruden ent t debt and Afflue luent nt and spen ending Inflat flation ion Rate managem gemen ent redirec ected ted to more Customer ers prod oducti tive e alloca cati tion on Refo form rm-Or Orien iented ed Admin inis istra ration ion Three e main sources ces of financing ing for investm estmen ent t From commod odity ty-based sed to manufactu cturing needs: s: State te and region onal budget, et, State te Owned ed and service ce sectors tors via infrastr structu ture Ente terprises ises and PPP developme opment New w Economic onomic High Conti tinuing ing from 2015 15 polic icy, y, infrastr structu ture will Structure Infrastructu astructure From consu sumpti mption on-led to invest estme ment-led growth owth be high gher than fuel subsid sidy via a stron onge ger manufactu cturin ing sector tor and more Inve vest stme ments ts investmen estment t initiatives iatives Infra rastru tructure cture spend ending ing focuse sed on basic ic infrastru tructu cture e proj ojec ects ts Polici cies es to mainta tain in purch chasin sing g power er to stimu mulate te domesti estic c economy omy in the midst t of Fiscal and non on-fisca iscal incenti tives es to attra tract ct weaken ening ing macroe oecon conomic ic condit ition ons infrastru tructu cture e investmen estment t and promote mote PPP 42
Indonesia’s GDP Growth Momentum Moderated Stron ong g GDP DP Growt owth 1 • Indonesia’s economy contracted 5.32% (yoy) in Q2/2020 period after expanding 2.97% (yoy) in Q1/2020. The recent contraction is consistent with global economic weaknesses QoQ YoY stemming from the COVID-19 pandemic as well as containment measures in the form of % large-scale social restrictions to break the domestic chain of transmission. Through its 7,0 5,1 4,9 4,9 5,0 4,8 4,7 4,8 5,2 4,9 5,2 5,0 4,9 5,0 5,0 5,1 5,2 5,1 5,3 5,2 5,2 5,1 5,1 5,0 5,0 policy mix, Bank Indonesia will continue to strengthen synergy with the Government and 5,0 4,2 4,2 other relevant authorities in order to ensure the effectiveness of various policies 4,0 3,2 4,0 3,1 3,8 3,3 3,7 3,3 3,0 3,1 3,1 implemented to build economic recovery momentum 3,0 • Domestic economic growth has declined across all GDP components from the expenditure 1,0 0,0 side. Household consumption contracted 5.51% (yoy) compared with positive 2.83% (yoy) in the first quarter of 2020. Likewise, investment posted an 8.61% (yoy) contraction, down -1,0 (0,2) (0,3) (0,4) (0,4) (0,5) from 1.70% (yoy) in the previous period. Muted government stimuli in line with seasonal (4,2) (1,7) (1,7) (1,7) (1,8) (1,7) trends have also fed through to a 6.90% (yoy) contraction of government consumption, -3,0 (2,1) (2,4) falling steeply from 3.75% (yoy) in the first quarter of 2020. In addition, exports -5,0 experienced an 11.66% (yoy) contraction in the reporting period due to the shrinking global (5,3) economy and sliding international commodity prices. Mirroring domestic demand and -7,0 exports, imports recorded a 16.96% (yoy) contraction in the reporting period. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 • All economic sectors experienced a contraction in the second quarter of 2020, excluding 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Information and Communications; Water Supply; Health, Education and Financial Services; as well as Agriculture. Economic moderation has primarily been driven by Transportation Favou oura rabl ble GDP P Growt owth Compa pared red to Peers rs 2 and Storage, Trade and Accommodation, as well as Manufacturing. In contrast, the Information and Communications sector posted stronger growth in line with greater uptake % of digital media in response to Work From Home (WFH) and School From Home (SFH) 10,00 8,20 protocols. Furthermore, the Agricultural sector has been boosted by the ongoing harvesting 7,62 8,00 5,03 season. 5,91 7,43 6,00 Grow owth th Prospe spect 4,23 4,00 1,87 2,00 2020 20 GDP P growth owth 0,65 Institution stitutions (%YoY oY) - 0,50 -2,00 2020 Budget (Presidential Regulation -0,4-1,0 72/2020) -4,00 -6,00 0,9-1,9 Bank Indonesia 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020* 2021* World Bank (GEP June 2020) 0.0 Bulgaria Colombia India Indonesia Philippines ADB (ADOS June 2020) -1.0 1. Source: Central Bureau of Statistics of Indonesia (BPS), ** Including non-profit household consumption -1.5 Consensus Forecast (August 2020) 2. Source: World Economic Outlook Database – April 2020; * indicates estimated figure 43
GDP Growt wth Brea eakdo kdown GDP DP Growth th Base sed on Expenditure itures (%, YoY) 1 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 By expenditure Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Tot. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Tot. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Tot Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Tot Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Tot Q1 Q2 HH. Consumption 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.9 5.0 4.9 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.2 5.0 5.1 5.1 5,0 5,2 5,0 5,0 5,0 2,8 -5,5 Non profit HH. (8.1) (8.0) 6.6 8.3 (0.6) 6.4 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.6 8.1 8.5 6.0 5.3 6.9 8.1 8.8 8.6 10.8 9.1 17,0 15,3 7,4 3,5 10,6 -5,1 -7,8 consumption Government 2.9 2.6 7.1 7.1 5.3 3.4 6.2 (3.0) (4.0) (0.1) 2.7 (1.9) 3.5 3.8 2.1 2.7 5.2 6.3 4.6 4.8 5,2 8,2 1,0 0,5 3,2 3,7 -6,9 consumption Gross Fixed Cap. 4.6 4.0 4.9 6.4 5.0 4.7 4.2 4.2 4.8 4.5 4.8 5.3 7.1 7.3 6.2 7.9 5.8 6.9 6.0 6.6 5,0 4,6 4,2 4,1 4,4 1,7 -8,6 Formation Exports (0.6) (0.3) (1.0) (6.4) (2.1) (3.1) (1.5) (5.9) 3.9 (1.7) 8.4 2.7 16.5 8.4 8.9 5.8 7.5 8.3 4.6 6.5 -1,6 -1,7 0,1 -0,4 -0,9 0,2 -11,7 Imports (2.6) (7.1) (6.5) (8.6) (6.2) (5.0) (3.4) (4.1) 2.7 (2.4) 4.8 0.2 15.4 11.9 8.1 12.5 14.9 13.8 7.1 11.9 -7,5 -6,8 -8,3 -8,0 -7,7 -2,2 -17,0 GDP 4.8 4.7 4.8 5.2 4.9 4.9 5.2 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.2 5,1 5,1 5,0 5,0 5,0 3,0 -5,3 1. Source: Central Bureau of Statistics of Indonesia (BPS), ** Including non-profit household consumption GDP DP Growth th by Sector ctor (%, YoY) 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 By sectors Tot Q3 Q4 Tot. Q4 Tot. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Tot Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Tot Q1 Q2 Q1 Q2 Q1 Q2 Q3 . Agriculture, forestry, and 3.7 6.5 2.9 1.6 3.8 1.5 3.5 3.2 5.5 3.4 7.1 3.3 2.8 2.4 3.9 3.4 4.7 3.6 3.8 3.9 1,8 5,3 3,1 4,3 3,6 0,0 2,2 fishery Mining and Quarrying (1. 0.6 (3.6) (4.4) (6.0) (3.4) 1.2 1.0 0.2 1.4 0.9 2.1 1.8 0.0 0.7 1.1 2.6 2.7 2.2 2.2 2,3 -0,7 2,3 0,9 1,2 0,4 -2,7 3) Manufacturing 4.1 4.2 4.6 4.4 4.3 4.7 4.6 4.5 3.3 4.3 4.3 3.5 4.9 4.5 4.3 4.6 3.9 4.4 4.2 4.3 3,9 3,5 4,1 3,7 3,8 2,1 -6,2 Construction 6.0 5.4 6.8 7.1 6.4 6.8 5.1 5.0 4.2 5.2 6.0 7.0 7.0 7.2 6.8 7.4 5.7 5.8 5.6 6.1 5,9 5,7 5,6 5,8 5,8 2,9 -5,4 Wholesale and Retail Trade, Repair of Car and 3.8 1.6 1.4 3.5 2.5 4.3 4.3 3.7 3.9 4.0 4.6 3.5 5.2 4.5 4.5 5.0 5.2 5.3 4.4 5.0 5,2 4,6 4,4 4,2 4,6 1,6 -7,6 Motorcycle Transportation and 6.3 6.0 7.0 7.5 6.7 7.4 6.5 8.2 7.6 7.4 8.1 8.8 8.9 8.2 8.5 8.5 8.7 5.7 5.5 7.1 5,5 5,9 6,7 7,6 6,4 1,3 -30,8 Storage Information and 10. 9.7 9.3 10.6 9.2 9.7 7.6 9.3 8.9 9.6 8.9 11.1 8.8 8.3 9.6 7.8 5.1 8.1 7.1 7.0 9,1 9,6 9,2 9,7 9,4 9,8 10,9 communication 5 Financial service 8.6 2.6 10.3 12.8 8.6 9.3 13.6 9.0 4.2 8.9 6.0 5.9 6.1 3.8 5.5 4.3 3.1 3.1 6.2 4.2 7,2 4,5 6,1 8,5 6,6 10,6 1,0 Other Services * 5.1 6.5 4.8 5.5 5.4 6.0 5.6 4.5 3.8 4.9 4.2 3.5 4.8 6.0 4,6 5.4 6.2 6.7 6.4 6.2 6,8 7,3 6,4 6,2 6,7 4,6 -6,3 GDP 4.8 4.7 4.8 5.2 4.9 4.9 5.2 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.2 5,1 5,1 5,0 5,0 5,0 3,0 -5,3 Source: Central Bureau of Statistics of Indonesia (BPS) *Other services consist of 10 sectors (according to Standard National 2008) 44
Majorit ority y of Regions gions Experienced perienced Economic nomic Growt wth h Contract traction ion • Majority of provinces recorded a negative growth with the deepest contraction in Java and Balinusra region. The only two provinces of Papua and West Papua grew positively. • The contraction in economic growth in various regions was influenced by lower domestic demand as a result of the large-scale social restrictions, amidst limited local Goverment fiscal stimulus. Nevertheless, a positive net exports recorded in several provinces on the back of positive growth in the mining sector. A WIDES DESPREA READ D ECONO ONOMIC MIC GROWTH H CONT NTRACT CTION ION IN THE E SECO COND ND QUAR ARTE TER R OF 2020 Source: Central Bureau of Statistics of Indonesia (BPS), calculated 45
Se Sect ction ion 3 Exter ernal l Factor: r: Impr mproved ed Exter ernal Res esil ilie ience ce
Ext xtern ernal al Sector tor Remains ains Resili silien ent t Suppor orted ted by Adequate uate Reserve erves s and nd Sound und Balance ance of Paymen yments ts Balanc lance e of Payment nts Portrait ait Remain ains Sound Current ent Accoun unt Deficit within hin Safe Thresh eshold ld 2013: 2013: 2014: 2014: 2015: 2015 2016: 201 2017: 201 2018: 2018: 2019: 2019: 2020: 2020: CA Defici cit CA Defici cit CA Defici cit CA Defici cit CA Defici cit CA Defici cit CA Defici cit CA Defici cit US$bn US$bn (US$29. 29.1bn) n) (US$26. 26.7bn) n) (US$17. 17.5bn) n) (US$16. 16.9bn) n) (US$16. 16.2bn) n) (US$30. 30.6bn) n) (US$30. 30.4bn) n) (US$6. 6.6bn) n) 20 160 US$bn 15 8 0,0 120 6 10 -0,5 4 -1,0 5 2 -1,5 80 0 0 -2,0 -2 -2,5 -5 -4 40 -3,0 -6 -10 -3,5 -8 -4,0 -10 -15 0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4TotalQ1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 -12 -4,5 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019* 2020** 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019* 2020** Goods Services Primary Income Secondary Income Current Account (%GDP) (rhs) Current Account Capital and Financial Account Overall Balance Reserve Asset (rhs) Source: Bank Indonesia Source: Bank Indonesia Trade Balanc lance Maint ntain ains A Surplus lus Substant antial al FX Reserves es to Mitiga igate Externa nal l Challe alleng nges es 2013 2013: 2014 2014: 2015: 201 2016: : 2017: 2018: 2019: 2020: FX Reser serves as of June 2020: US$135.1 .1 bn n Deficit Deficit Surplus us Surplus us Surplus us Deficit Deficit Surplus us (Equ quiv. to 8.6 mont onths s of import rts s + servi vicing g of govern overnmen ent debt bt) (US$4.10bn) n) (US$2.37bn) n) US$7.59bn US$8.83b 3bn US$11.83bn bn (US$8.65bn) n) (US$3.24bn) n) (US$8.7bn) n) US$bn US$bn FX Reserves (LHS) Month of Import & Debt Service (RHS) Month 130 15 4,00 14 3,26 OG Non-OG Total 120 13 3,00 12 110 11 2,00 8,6 10 100 9 1,00 8 90 7 0,00 6 80 -1,00 5 4 70 -2,00 3 2 60 -3,00 1 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 50 - 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 * Preliminary Figure ** Very Preliminary Figure 47 Source: Bank Indonesia Source: BPS
Exch change ange Rate e In Line e with h Fundame ament ntals als Movem emen ent t of Rupia iah Rupiah exchange rates remain under control with well-functioning market IDR/US$ mechanisms, despite depreciation at the beginning of July 2020 as a result of 17.000 global financial market uncertainty. In July 2020, the rupiah depreciated 2.36% IDR/USD 16.500 (ptp) or by 2.92% on average compared with the level recorded in June 2020, Quarterly Average stoked by concerns over a second COVID-19 wave, the global economic recovery 16.000 Monthly Average 15.711 outlook and increasing global financial market uncertainty due to a furtherance of geopolitical tensions between the United States and China. Similar concerns 14893 15.500 15.179 14.682 persisted into August 2020, with the rupiah succumbing to pressures and 14.530 14798 14.381 15.000 depreciating 1.65% (ptp) or 1.04% on average compared with the level recorded 14.232 14.220 14845 in July 2020 as of 18th August 2020. Therefore, the rupiah has lost 6.48% (ytd) 14254 14.113 14120 14.500 13.714 14.855 of its value compared with the level recorded at the end of 2019. Moving forward, Bank Indonesia expects potential rupiah appreciation considering the 14.000 14581 14352 currency is fundamentally undervalued, supported by low and controlled inflation, 14.105 14134 14064 14.141 a narrow current account deficit, attractive domestic financial assets for 13.500 14.006 14.031 data as of August 18 th , 2020 investment and a lower risk premium in Indonesia. In addition, stronger 13.000 indications of economic recovery in the second semester of 2020 also support 18-Sep 8-Oct 28-Oct 17-Nov 7-Dec 27-Dec 16-Jan 5-Feb 25-Feb 17-Mar 6-Apr 26-Apr 16-May 5-Jun 25-Jun 15-Jul 4-Aug 24-Aug 13-Sep 3-Oct 23-Oct 12-Nov 2-Dec 22-Dec 11-Jan 31-Jan 20-Feb 11-Mar 31-Mar 20-Apr 10-May 30-May 19-Jun 9-Jul 29-Jul 18-Aug the prospect of a stronger rupiah. To support exchange rate policy effectiveness, Bank Indonesia continues to maintain adequate liquidity in the money and foreign exchange markets, while ensuring robust market mechanisms. Rupia iah Exch change ge Rate te Fared red Rela lative tively Well ll Compared red to Peers ers Rupia iah Exch change ge Rate te Volati latilt lty YTD 20 2020 20 vs vs 201 019 data as of August 18 th , 2020 % -25,68 BRL -20,64 2019 ZAR -19,72 35 32,6 -13,33 YTD 2020 -19,46 TRY -13,66 30 Average YTD 2020 -6,48 IDR -2,83 25,6 -4,57 Avg 2019 16,34 INR -5,07 25 -4,50 THB 20,4 -1,51 -2,32 18,1 KRW 20 17,0 -3,07 16,1 16,1 -2,26 MYR -2,36 15 12,5 point-to-point -1,44 SGD -2,14 10,10 average 9,6 0,56 CNY -1,51 10 2,88 7,0 9,2 JPY 6,1 6,2 5,0 1,04 4,8 5,4 4,18 PHP data as of August 18 th , 2020 5 2,85 5,70 EUR -0,45 - -30,0 -25,0 -20,0 -15,0 -10,0 -5,0 0,0 5,0 10,0 ZAR BRL TRY IDR THB PHP INR MYR 48 Source: Bank Indonesia
Ample le Line nes of De Defense nse Against nst Ext xtern ernal al Shocks ks Ampl ple e Reserv erves es Ample level of FX reserves to buffer against external shock FX Reserve FX Reserves as of of July 2020: US$135.1 bn Swap p Arra range gemen ent Renewed a 3 year USD22.76 billion swap line with Japan on October 14 th , 2018 Japan The facility is available in USD and JPY South Korea rea Renewed a 3 year KRW / IDR swap arrangement with the size of up to KRW 10.7 trillion / IDR 115 trillion in March 2020 eral ateral Australia ralia Renewed a 3 year A$/IDR swap arrangement of up to A$10 billion or IDR 100 trillion in August 2018 Bilat Singap gapore ore Renewed a one year SGD/IDR swap arrangement with a size up to USD10 billion (equivalent) in November 2019 Renewed a 3 year swap arrangement and increased the size of swap line up to CNY 200 bn / USD 30 billion in China November 2018 Malaysia ia Established a 3 year RM/IDR swap arrangement with a size up to USD2 billion (equivalent) in September 2019 Entitled to a maximum swap amount of USD600 million under ASA ASEAN Swap p The first MoU on the ASA was signed in 1977 among 5 ASEAN Central Banks with total facility USD100 million Arrangemen ngement (ASA) Doubled to USD2 billion in 2005 ional al Region Entitled to a maximum swap amount of US$ 22.76 bn under the ASEAN+3 (Japan, China, and Korea) FX reserves pool created under the Chiang ng Mai i Initiativ iative e agreement Mult ltilater ilaterali liza zation ion Came into effect in 2010 with a pool of US$120 bn (CMIM IM) ) Agreeme eement nt Doubled to US$240 bn effective July 2014 al Global IMF Global al Financ ancial ial Indonesia is entitled to access IMF facilities for crisis prevention to address potential (actual) BOP problem Safety ety Net t - GSFN Such facilities include Flexible Credit Line (FCL) and Precautionary and Liquidity Line (PLL) Source: Bank Indonesia 49
Solid lid Polic licy y Coordination dination In Managing ging Financi ncial al Markets ts Volat atility ility The e enact ctmen ment of Law No. 9/2016 regarding g Prev even ention and Mitiga gation of Financi cial l Syst stem em Crise ses as a legal foundation Gov’t Securities Crisis is Managem agemen ent t Protoc ocol ol (CMP) for the government to serves at the time of financial crisis in Indicato tors rs: the form of Financi cial l Syst stem em Stabil bility Commi mmittee ee (KSSK SK) - Yield of benchmark series; - Exchange rate; - Jakarta Composite Index; - Foreign ownership in government securities KSSK K member mbers: the Ministry of Finance, Bank Indonesia, the Policie licies s to address the crisis at every level : Financial Services Authority, and the Deposit Insurance - Repurchase the government securities at secondary market Corporation - Postpone or stop the issuance Bond Stabil iliz izati ation on Framew ewor ork Swap facility arrangements based on international cooperation Firs rst t Line of Defense Buyback fund at DG of Budget Financing and Risk Management State’s Budget Investment fund at Public Service Agency Enhancing coordination between government institutions (BLU) (min. level Aware) and continuous dialogue with market participants State te Owned ed Enterp terprises ises Related SOEs (min. level Aware) (BUMN)’s Budget Social cial Secu curit ity y Orga ganizin izing g BPJS (min. level Aware) Agency (BPJS)’s Budget CMP Implementing Crisis Management Protocol (CMP) Second Line of Defense State General Treasury Account (Rekening KUN) (min. level Alert) State’s Budget Accumulated cash surplus (SAL) (min. Level Crisis) BSF Implementing Bond Stabilization Framework (BSF) Source: Ministry of Finance 50
Stren rengt gthen ened d Priv ivat ate e Ext xter ernal al Debt t Risk sk Managem ement nt Encou coura ragi ging Corpora porates tes Compli pliance ce on Hedgi ging Ratio tio & Liquid quidity ity Ratio tio Debt Burden n Indic icat ator (Externa nal l Debt/GDP) Remains ains Compar arab able le to Peers Rating ing Hedgin ging Ratio io* Extern ernal Debt ebt/GDP (%) 86,1 Uruguay 93,9 160; 76,2 243; 6.2% 24,2 9.4% Philippines 24,7 22,2 36,3 Indonesia 35,3 36,1 48,7 ≤ 3 months 2021F Colombia 53 > 3 - 6 months 42,7 2020F 53,6 2019 2.425; Bulgaria 56,6 2.342; 56,3 93.8% 90.6% 0 20 40 60 80 100 Source: Moody’s Credit View Fundamental Data, July 2020 Liquid uidit ity Ratio io* Regulat ulation n on Prudentia ential l Principle le in Manag aging ing External nal Debt 308; Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 11.9% Regu gulati tion on Key Points ints Jan 1,2015 2015 – Jan 1,2016 2016 – Jan 1, 2017 17 & & Dec 31,20 2015 15 Dec 31,20 2016 16 beyond Object ect of Regul egulation on Governs all Foreign Currency Debt Hedgi dging g Ratio < 3 months 20%* 25%** > 3 – 6 months 20%* 25%** 2.277; Liqu quidity y Ratio (< 3 months) 50% 70% 88.1% Credi edit Rating Not applicable Minimum rating of BB- Must be done Hedgi dging g transaction on to meet eet not necessarily be done with a bank in Comply Not Comply with a bank in hedge ge ratio Indonesia Indonesia *Data as of Q4 2019, with total population 2.585 corporates Sanction on As of Q IV-2015 Applied Source: Bank Indonesia Source: Bank Indonesia 51
Health althy Ext xternal ernal Debt t Composition osition Extern ernal l Debt bt Structure cture The e Structure cture of Extern ernal l Debt bt is Dom omin inated ted by Long-Term erm Debt bt Private External Debt Public External Debt Short Term External Debt Long Term External Debt 100% 100% 90% 90% 80% 80% 57,4 58,6 52,6 50,0 46,4 44,2 45,9 49,5 51,2 49,6 49,2 50,1 50,0 50,2 50,6 49,9 47,3 48,1 48,2 48,8 70% 70% 81,7 78,8 79,3 78,3 78,8 79,8 82,1 82,9 84,4 84,0 83,9 84,3 85,9 84,3 85,4 85,4 84,4 84,9 84,3 84,5 60% 60% 50% 50% 40% 40% 30% 30% 42,6 41,4 47,4 50,0 53,6 55,8 54,1 50,5 48,8 50,4 50,8 49,9 50,0 49,8 49,4 50,1 52,7 51,9 51,8 51,2 20% 20% 10% 18,3 21,2 20,7 21,7 21,2 20,2 17,9 17,1 15,6 16,0 16,1 15,7 14,1 15,7 14,6 14,6 15,6 15,1 15,7 15,5 10% 0% 0% Extern ernal l Debt bt Remains ins Managea geable le Extern ernal l Debt bt to GDP DP Ratio tio & Debt bt to Export rt Ratio tio % Million USD % % External Debt External Debt Growth (rhs) 37,3 450.000 20,0 220 36,1 34,3 34,7 36,0 36,8 36,5 36,2 36,1 34,5 40 17,1 32,9 18,0 400.000 31,8 35 200 27,4 29,1 16,0 350.000 197,5 26,5 25,0 30 180 14,0 11,3 12,0 300.000 11,5 183,3 25 177,3 177,8 176,1 9,9 10,4 12,0 10,2 10,1 160 172,1 Axis Title 250.000 168,4 168,0 168,5 20 10,0 160,8 8,1 7,5 200.000 140 6,5 8,0 15 5,9 5,4 External Debt / Export Ratio (rhs) 139,5 150.000 5,0 6,0 120 10 3,0 123,1 100.000 121,8 External Debt / GDP Ratio 4,0 114,9 113,8 100 5 50.000 0,6 2,0 101,0 80 0 0 0,0 Source: Bank Indonesia, External Debt Statistics of Indonesia, Aug 2020 *Provisional Figures **Very Provisional Figures 52
Managea geable ble Ext xtern ernal al Debt t Profile ile Shor ort term non-ban ank corp rpor orat ate e debt (non on affiliation) ) represe sents only ly 9.1% 1% of tot otal private e externa nal l debt Public Long Term 1 Private Bank Affiliation US$199.3bn US$158.5bn US$18.8bn or or or 48.8% 75.7% 9.0% US$13.0bn of Total Ext. of Private Ext. of Private or Debt Debt Ext. Debt 6.2% External Debt of Private Position Ext. Debt US$209.3bn US$50.8bn US$32.0bn or or or 51.2% US$408.6bn 24.3% 15.3% of total of Private of Private Ext. Debt Ext. Debt Ext. Debt Private Non-Bank US$19.0bn Short-Term 1 or 9.1% Private of Private Ext. Debt External Debt Position as of June 2020 1 Based on remaining maturity Non Affiliation Source: External Debt Statistics of Indonesia, August 2020 53
Sect Se ction ion 4 Fiscal Per Fi erforma ormance nce and F d Flexib ibil ilit ity: The De e Desig ign of Econom onomic ic Rec ecover ery y Progr gram am
Covid id-19 Handling dling Focus s In Indon onesi esia Pushing the economic stability with Protecting people’s health and saving lives, maintaining purchasing power, and business continuity The polic icy measu sures s for handlin dling and recovering ing the economy are focused d at improving ing the deman and side, , and many target t vulnerable ble communities ities and MSMEs Es EXPORT RT – IMPORT RT SUPPORT RTS MAINTAIN IN THE PRO ROUDC DCTIVIT VITY Tax Incentives Tax Incentives Mainta tainin ining the Customs and excise incentives Customs and excise incentives househ ehold ld Simplification & reduction of ber of import & Providing leniency requirements of credit / consu sumptions tions export restrictions financing / funding for MSMEs Accelerating the export-import process for Providing payment relief for MSMEs Reputable Traders Decreasing in benchmark interest rates Improvement & acceleration of export-import Decreasing in Reserve Requirement services and supervision through the National Logistic Ecosystem (NLE) Mainta tainin ining Preventin ing g health th/ Bankrupt kruptcy public ic safet ety MAINTAIN IN THE CONSUMPTIO IONS NS Additional Groceries (basic food) Additional pre-work cards Electricity tariffs exemption Additional Family Hope Program (PKH) beneficiaries Source: Ministry of Finance 55
The Governmen rnment t of f Indonesia’s Relief Program Budget To deal with health, social protection, and support of MSMEs, the business world, and local governments Social al Busine siness s Corporat rate Secto toral ral & SMEs Healt alth VERY PROGRAMS (PEN) Protect ctio ion Ince centive ives Finan nancin ing Regio ional nal Gov’t COVID-19 IDR87.55 .55 T IDR203.90 .90 T T IDR120.6 .61 T T IDR53.5 .57 T T IDR106.11 T T IDR123.46 .46 T T Handling Costs IDR695.2 695.2 T IC RECOVER • Conditional Cash Transfer Program • Interests Subsidy • Expenditure for • Government-Borne • Line Ministries labor IDR37.40T; IDR35.28T; Covid-19 Handling Income Tax Intensive Program • Basic Foods • Fund Placement IDR65.80T; IDR43.60T; IDR39.66T; IDR18.44T; IDR78.78T; • Incentives for IONAL ECONOMIC • Social Assistance - • Income Tax • Labor Intensive- • Housing Incentives • Guarantee Return Paramedic Jabodetabek Exemption on Import Fund Placement IDR1.30T; IDR5.00T; IDR5.90T; IDR6.80T; IDR14.75T; IDR3.42T; • Tourism IDR3.80T; • Working Capital • Death • Social Assistance – • Tax Deduction • State Equity • Regional Incentive Guarantee (Stop Compensation Non - Jabodetabek IDR14.40T; Participation Fund (DID) IDR5.00T; IDR32.40T; Loss) IDR1.00T; IDR0.30T; • VAT Return (PMN) IDR20.50T; • Physical Special • Pre-Working • Government-Borne • National Health IDR5.80T; • Working Capital Allocation Fund IDR20.00T; Final Income Tax Insurance Fee • Corporate IT Rate Investment Reserve IDR8.70; • Electricity Discount IDR2.40T; & IDR3.00T; Reduction IDR29.65T • Regional Loan Facility IDR6.90T; NATIO • Investment • Covid-19 Task IDR20.00T; & IDR1.00T; & • Logistical / Foods / Financing to Force IDR3.50T; & Basic Foods • Other Stimulus • Diversification Cooperatives • Tax Incentives in UDR25.00T; IDR26.00T Reserve IDR58.87T IDR1.00T Health IDR9.05T • Village Fund - Cash Transfer IDR31.80T Source: Ministry of Finance 56
National ional Economic omic Recover ery y Progr gram am (PE PEN) N) Comprehensive coverage to mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on the economy PEN Funding Supply Side Demand Side IDR 607.65 65 T IDR DR402.45 02.45 T IDR DR205.20 05.20 T MSMEs Households Interest subsidy, Fund Placement for SMEs, Conditional Cash Transfer Program , Basic Fee for Guarantee Services (IJP) expenditure,Tax Foods, Social Assistance - Jabodetabek, Social IDR123.46 T incentive, Assistance Non-Jabodetabek, Pre-Working, IDR205.2T Working Capital Guarantee (Stop Loss), Investment Electricity Discount, Logistic/Foods/Basic Financing to Cooperatives through Cooperatives and SMEs Foods, Village Fund - Cash Transfer, Housing Revolving Fund Incentives – Low Income Households CORPORATION Fund Placement for labor intensive restructuring, State Equity Participation (PMA) and Debt Securities to State- IDR169.97T Owned Asset Management Company, Tax Incentives, Labor Intensive program, Physical-Specific Allocation Fund reserve, Tourism Incentives SOEs IDR12.0T State Equity Participation (PMA) and Working Capital Investment Regional Government IDR15.00T Regional Incentive Funds For Economic Recovery, Loan to Regional Government Diversification Reserve IDR58.87T Source: Ministry of Finance 57
Perppu 1/2020 0 (Con onver erted ed To Law 2/2020) 0) as A Legal Basis is for Governme ernment nt In Taking Quick and Extraordinary Steps in Overcoming the Impact of the Covid-19 Pandemic and National Economic Recovery Extraor ordin dinary y Government Policy Lega gal Basis is Perppu 1/2020 concerning State Financial Policy and Financial System Stability for Handling Covid-19 Pandemic and / or in the PERPPU U 1/20 2020 20 UU 2/20 2020 20 framework of Facing Threats that Harm National Economy and (31 st March 2020) (18 th May 2020) or Financial System Stability stipulat lated into Law 2/2020 2020 State Deficit icit Un Unde dertaking king Strateg egic ic Policie cies 1. 1.76% PDB Budg dget 2020 Refoc ocusin sing and and realloca reallocation ion policies policies by suspending non- priority activities, such as official travel and other activities that cannot be carried out in the Covid-19 The budget has been Deficit icit Perp rpres res period. revised twice to the 5.07% 7% GDP 54/2020 latest of Presidential Providin ding st stim imulu lus, s, both in the form of additional Decree 72/2020, which spending, tax incentives, and government investment for or Deficit icit Perp rpres res has incorporated the handlin dling Covid id-19 19 and the the Nation ional al Economi mic Recover ery 6.34 34% % GDP national economic 72/2020 recovery initiation Source: Ministry of Finance 58
PROGR GRESS SS OF COVID-19 & NATI TION ONAL AL ECON ONOM OMIC C RECO COVER ERY (PEN) PROGRAM GRAM: EXPENDI NDITU TURE RE SIDE SO SOCIAL PROTECTI TION SE SECTORAL L AND AND LOCA CAL L GO GOVT VT HEALTH HE 13.10% 13.1 13.98% 13.9 49.70% 49. Tot otal di disbursed IDR DR87.85 T Tot otal di disbursed IDR DR11.18 T Tot otal di disb sburse sed IDR DR7.20 20 T Spe pendin ing de detai ails ls: Spending details Middle income group incentives needs Central and Regional Health Incentives IDR1.86 T Labor Intensive KL IDR9.01 T further design program Healthcare Benefit for the Death of IDR21.60 billion The acceleration of completing KPM data DID for Economic Recovery IDR654.9 Billion Covid-19 task force (distribution) IDR3.2 T does not overlap with social assistance Physical DAK IDR328.8 billion Incentives for import and VAT for Health IDR2.26 T Batch 4 of Pre-Employment Card Program Low disbursement requires a shifting program MSMEs support IDR2.4T has restarted th Aug Real alizat ation on as of f 20 th g 2020 20 Source: Ministry of Finance 59
PROGR GRESS OF COVID ID-19 & NATI TION ONAL L ECON ONOM OMIC C RECO COVER ERY Y (PEN) N) PROGRA GRAM: EXPENDIT DITURE RE SIDE CORPORATE FINANCING BUSINESS INCENTIVES MSME 0 % 37.20% 14.30% • Soon Tot otal di disbursed RP RP32 32,51 51 T will be utilized for SOE Tax x inc ncenti tives is less ess op opti timal injections • Remain low disbursement needs • The guarantee for labor-intensive Allo located at IDR DR120.61 T program evaluation rsement IDR1 Disb sburs DR17.23 T corporate loans will begin soon Needs further socialization, Real aliz izat atio ion Detai ails ls: Stimulus is expected to be fully utilized as • Fund placement: IDR 41.2T Details: economic regains • LPDB investment financing: IDR 1 T • Timing of PMN realization and credit • Government bourne for MSMEs’ Income guarantee Tax for : IDR 0.27T • The labor-intensive corporate loan • Interest: Subsidy for MSMEs IDR 2.16T guarantee is ready to be implemented Realization as of 20 th Aug 2020 Source: Ministry of Finance 60
STRATEGY TO SPUR RECOVERY THROUGH FISCAL POLICIES Q3 2020 is the key to avoid a recession; optimizing the role of government is important to stimulate the economy 12 13 STRENGTHENIN ING GOV OVERNMENT 11 CON CONSUMPTION (G) STR TRENGTHENING THE THE CONSU NSUMPTION (C) C) Per ersonnel l sp spendin ing as as an an instr trument to encourage grow en rowth: PEN PROGRAM • STRATEGY Accelerate social EXECUTION & ACC CCELERATION • Accelerated disbursement of salaries assistance spending 13 • The existing program that already has State • Modification of social protection • Acceleration spending to support new Budget Allocation (DIPA) needs to be spending THROUGH several options: work patterns (WFH, WFS) accelerated and the accuracy of targeting increasing the amount and • Reallocation to support the continues to be improved at the next stage of frequency, and extending period. digitalization of the bureaucracy; distribution • This can be done through the • Shifting capex that is difficult to • The new program that data and delivery addition of a social protection execute to a faster disbursement (aim mechanism are available will be executed. program index that is relatively to support the infrastructure for • New proposed programs that are not implementable (PKH, Basic Food digitalizing public services). supported by valid data, and require complex Aid, Cash Transfer etc.) • Relaxation of goods and services regulatory changes, should be diverted to procurement policies existing implemented programs 61
NEW PROPOSAL FOR THE USE OF COVID-19 HANDLING COSTS As the efforts to boost economic growth in the second semester Health Social Securities Sectoral & Regional Gov’t Business Incentives 1. The utilization of food 1. Support for MSMEs 1. Exemption from applying 1. Incentives for Medical reserve/logistic fund (IDR2.4Mio per recipient) the minimum account and Non-Medical 2. Social Security programs 2. Support for worker provisions for customers Personnel: for middle income class affected by Covid-19 with electricity • Incentives 3. Extension period of (IDR600K/month for 4 consumption below the extension up to Dec Electricity bill Discount 2020 months for those who minimum account • 4. Additional Electricity bill Reward for registered in BP Jamsostek Incentives for Discount with salaries below 2. Exemption from social, Medical and Non- New proposals that have been IDR5Mio) business and industrial Medical budgeted: 3. Buying Local Product customer expense / 2. Support for Hospitals 1. Islamic Boarding Program for supporting subscription fees by accelerating the School/Pesantren the MSMEs and cashback assistance for procurement process program for MSMEs’ implementation of health for medical stuff and consumers protocols and online claim for hospitalization Note: learning costs The new proposal programs 2. Rice aid for Family Hope 3. New Normal are funded by expansion Program beneficiaries Socialization reserves and unused 3. Cash transfer IDR500K for 4. Covid-19 Vaccine government borne taxes 9Mio Basic Food Supplies beneficiaries and non PKH 62
2020 Budget Realization as of July 2020 2018 18 2019 19 2020 20 Real alizat ation on Real alizat ation on Real alizat ation on % of Budget et Gr Growth h (%) Budg dget et % of Budget et Gr Growth h (%) Budg dget et % of Budget et Gr Growth h (%) of July 31 of July 31 of July 31 Revenu enue 994. 4.6 52.6 16.5 2165. 65.1 1052. 52.4 48.6 5.8 1699. 99.9 922. 2.2 54.3 -12. 2.4% 4% Domes estic Reven enue ue 991. 1.3 52.4 16.2 2164. 64.7 1052. 52.1 48.6 6.1 1698. 98.6 919. 9.8 54.1 -12. 2.6% 6% Taxat ation Reven enue 780. 0.1 48.2 14.6 1786 86.4 810. 0.6 45.4 3.9 1404 04.5 711 711 50.6 -12. 2.3% 3% Tax Revenue 687.2 48.3 14.3 1577.6 705.4 44.7 2.7 1198.8 601.9 50.2 -14.7% Custom and Excise 92.9 47.9 16.4 208.8 105.2 50.4 13.2 205.7 109.1 53 3.7% Non Tax Revenue 211.3 76.7 22.7 378.3 241.5 63.8 14.3 294.1 208.8 71 -13.5% Gr Gran ant 3.3 276. 6.7 325. 5.1 0.4 0.4 85.4 -88. 8.8 1.3 2.5 189. 9.2 525. 5.0% Expen pendi ditur ure 1145. 45.7 51.6 7.7 2461. 61.1 1236. 36.3 50.2 7.9 2739. 39.2 1252. 52.4 45.7 1.3% 3% Cent ntral al Go Gover ernm nment nt Expen penditur ure 697 697 47.9 15.3 1634. 34.3 761.3 1.3 46.6 9.2 1975. 75.2 793. 3.6 40.2 4.2% 2% Ministerial Expenditure 375.9 44.4 14.3 855.4 419.8 49.1 11.7 836.4 419.6 50.2 0.0% Non Ministerial Expenditure 321.1 52.9 16.4 778.9 341.4 43.8 6.3 1138.9 374 32.8 9.5% Regi giona nal Tran ansfer er and d Vi Villag age e Fund nd 448. 8.6 59.6 -2.3 826. 6.8 475.1 5.1 57.5 5.9 763. 3.9 458. 8.8 60.1 -3.4% 4% Regional Transfer 412.8 58.5 -2.5 756.8 433.2 57.2 4.9 692.7 410.9 59.3 -5.1% Village Fund 35.9 59.8 0.1 70 41.9 59.8 16.8 71.2 47.9 67.3 14.3% Primar ary Balanc nce -4.6 5.3 -94. 4.2 -20. 0.1 -25. 5.3 125. 5.7 449. 9.6 -700. 00.4 -147. 47.4 Surpl plus/ s/(Deficit) -151 51 46.3 -28. 8.1 -296 96 -183.9 83.9 62.1 21.8 1039. 39.2 -330. 30.2 31.8 to GDP -1.02 -1.8 -1.16 -6.34 -2.01 Fina nanc ncing ng 212. 2.3 65.1 -26. 6.9 6 233.6 3.6 78.9 10 10 1039. 39.2 503 503 48.4 115. 5.3% • State revenue reached IDR922.2 T (54.3% of the target or contracted at 12.4% [yoy]) due to the higher utilization of tax incentives. • State expenditures reached IDR1,252.4 T (45.7% of the target or grew 1.3%), prioritized for handling Covid-19 and PEN. • The deficit per July 2020 was still on-track reached 2.01% of GDP 63
FISCAL POLICY DIRECTION IN 2021 Responding changes in economy, challenges, and support development targets ACCELERATING ECO CONOMIC RECOVERY AND STRENGTHENING REFORM ACC CCELE LERATION FI FISC SCAL FLEXIBI FLEXIBILITY TY EFFE EF FECT CTIVENESS OF F EXI EXIT STR TRATEGY MI MIDDLE LE ANT ANTICIPATING ECONO NOMIC ( PRU PRUDENT & CONTR NTROLL LLING INC NCOME TR TRAP AP UNCE NCERTAINTY RESTORATI TION (PEN PEN) SUSTAINABL SU BLE) COVI VID-19 19 64
Macroeconomic Assumption and Budget Proposal for 2021 Expansive-consolidative fiscal policy for the acceleration of Economic Recovery and strengthening the reforms DEVEL ELOP OPMENT MENT TARGET ET Gran Gr ant 0,9 Grow rowth: : Non n tax Revenu enue 4.5 – 5.5 % 293. 29 3.5 Poverty ty lev evel Cen Central 9.2 9. 2 – 9. 9.7% 7% Govern Go rnment REVENUE REV Infla latio ion: : Spe Spendin ding 3.0% Penerimaan Tax x Revenue 1,7 ,776.4 Perpajakan 1,951.3 Exchange ra rate tes: : Unemplo loyment 1,481.9 .9 Rp14.600/USD Rate ate 1.6 1.618,1 EXP EXPENDIT ITURE 7.7 7. 7 – 9. 9.1% 1% 10-year Gov’t Bond: 10 7.29 % 2,7 ,747.5 ICP CP (Oil Oil Pric rice): GINI I Ratio atio US$45 per barel 0. 0.37 377 – 0. 0.37 379 Oil il Li Lifti ting: DEF EFICIT FINANCING FINA 705 thousand barrel/day Regio iona nal l (971.2) Transfer and and 97 971. 1.2 HD HDI Villag Vil lage Fund Fund Gas as Li Liftin ting: : (5.50% .50% PDB DB) 72.78 72 78-72.95 95 1,191 thousand barrel 796.3 (equal oil per day) 65
ALLOCATIONS FOR CONTROLLING COVID-19 AND 2021 PEN Gaining the momentum for economic recovery IDR IDR25.40T IDR48.80T ID IDR110.20T ID HEALTH SOCIA SOC IAL PROTECTIO ION MSM SME 1. PKH 10 million KPM 1. Regular KUR interest subsidy 1. the COVID-19 vaccine 2. SEMBAKO Card 18.8 million KPM 2. Financing Support to MSME 2. Immunization, Lab, R & D 3. Pre Work 3. Placement of funds in banking 3. Reserve BPJS Contribution 4. Village Fund (BLT Desa and 4. Loss Limit Guarantee Assistance for PBPU / BP supporting BUMDes) 5. PEN Financing Reserve 5. Cash Social Assistance 10 million KPM @ IDR 200 thousand for 6 months IDR35 356.5T 5T IDR20.40T ID IDR136.70T IDR14.90T ID COR ORPORATE FI FINANCE BU BUSI SINESS IN INCENTIVE SECTORAL AND LOCAL GOV’T 1. PMN to Guarantee Institution 1. Tax borne by the government 1. Tourism Support (LPEI) 2. 22 Import Income Tax 2. Food security 2. PMN to SOEs carrying out Exemption 3. ICT development 4. Loans to the regions assignments (HK, ITDC, Pelindo 3. Preliminary VAT refund 5. Industrial Area III, KIW) 6. PEN Expenditure Proposal 3. Guarantee of backstop loss limit 7. Labor intensive program 66
STRATEGIC POLICY IN 2021 Supporting the accelerated recovery and the economic transformation 12 14 11 13 INFRASTRUCTURE (IDR414.0T) EDUCATION (IDR549.5T) HEALTH (IDR169.7T) SOCIAL PROTECTION (IDR419.3T) Prov rovis ision ion of infr fras astruc uctur ure e for r basic ic St Strengthening the he qu quality of of Accelerating he health recovery y Suppo pporting ing socia ial l prot rotec ection ion m compre refo form mprehen hensiv ive e socia ial l serv rvic ices es, , impro mprovin ing g conne nectivit ity, , and nd edu ducation thro hrough incr ncreasing due to du o Covid-19, implementing prot rotec ection ion system em based ed on the suppo pportin ing g econ onom omic ic recov over ery, , and nd PISA SA scores s and nd str trengthening Nati tional Health Insu nsurance (JKN) N) continui nuing ng pendin nding g prior riority progr rograms ms life e cyc ycle le and d antic icipa ipating ng the e aging ing Early y Childhood Edu ducation reforms and nd pr preparing Health popul pulat atio ion (PAUD) adm dminist stration and nd Security Se ty Preparedness ss increas asing g teac acher competences 16 17 15 FOOD SECURITIES (IDR104.2T) TOURISM (IDR13.9T) ICT (IDR30.5T) Incre reas ase food od prod oduc uction ion and d suppo pport econo nomic mic Encou ouragin ging g the e rec ecov over ery of the e Optimiz Op imizin ing the e use of of ICT T to suppo port and d recov over ery thro rough ugh revit italiz lizin ing the nation onal l food od tour uris ism m sector or with h a focus us on 5 areas reas impro mprove the qualit ality of of public blic serv rvic ices es system em and d devel elop oping ng Food od Estat ate and d devel elop opin ing g a PPP PP schem eme (eff ffic icien iency, , conv nvenie enienc nce and d accele elera ratio ion) n) 67
SUMMARY (BUDGET PLAN 2021) Accelerating Economic Recovery and Strengthening Reforms Fiscal policy in 2021: "Expansive-Consolidative" Continue the national economic recovery program to encourage the business, MSMEs and corporates; in the context of Accelerating Economic Recovery and Strengthening Reforms " The 2021 budget plan is an instrument to accelerate socio- economic recovery and to address structural challenges 2021 Budget Deficit: 5.5% of GDP for counter (competitiveness, production capacity and utilization of cyclical measures, with prudent and sustainable the demographic bonus) in order to avoid middle income management of debt; trap; Controlling COVID-19 in the health sector as the Reforms to a better Indonesia: An improved health and key to accelerating economic recovery; social protection system, an education system that Continuing the social safety net program to supports superior and competitive human resources, taxation that supports the business sectors and compatible normalize the purchasing power of the poor with ICT-based economic activities, and budgeting reforms and vulnerable (PKH, Food Cards, Cash Social that focus on priorities, based on results and strengthening Assistance, Pre-employment Cards); quality control of regional transfer 68
Stat ate e Budget t Post stur ure Amendmen ndment t 2020 2020 As a response to development needs for handling of pandemic COVID-19 Law (UU) No.20/2019 Presidential Regulation Presidential Regulation • Deficit 1,76% (Perpres) No.54/2020 (Perpres) No.72/2020 • Deficit 5,07% • Deficit 6,34% Responding to the The Law on State Finance (Law With extraordinary and very development needs of the No.17 of 2003) stipulates that urgent conditions, the State Covid-19 pandemic handling the budget deficit is limited to a Budget deficit policy exceeds and to maintain the economy maximum of 3% of GDP and the the 3% limit, through the and financial system stability, amount of Government debt is enactment of Perppu No.1 / including running the National a maximum of 60% of GDP. 2020 (becoming Law No.2 / Economic Recovery Program 2020). The magnitude of the (PEN). 2023 state budget deficit will return a maximum of 3%. Deficit icit 1,76% Deficit icit 6,34% Changes es Budget Deficit IDR 307,22 T IDR 1.039,22 T IDR 732,00 T ▲ Source: Ministry of Finance 69
Finan ancin cing g Strat trategy egy 2020 Opportu tunistic, istic, Measured ed, , and Prude dent t Finan ancin ing g Strat ategie egies s to suppor ort t State Revenue e and Expend enditu iture e Budget et (APBN) 2020 020 in acceleratin lerating g the handling dling of COVID ID-19 9 and prot otec ecting ing the econom omy y from m the threat at of crisi isis Non-Debt Financing Sources Optimization of Debt and SAL SAL Non-Debt Financing Government Endowment Fund Post 1 Budget Financing Fund sourced BLU LU Sources 2020 Flexibility of adding SBN Cash Loan Flexibility Upsize the issuance of Domestic SBN and Foreign Upsize Program Loans from Denominated SBN (USD10 -12 billion) with regard to Development Partners, both financial market conditions 3 bilateral and multilateral, Open opportunity for Private Placement requests from ex. World Bank, ADB, AFD, KfW, SOE/Institution JICA, EDCF, and AIIB ex. LPS, BPKH, and others Bank Indonesia support as a Prioritize SBN publishing through 4 last resort / back stop market mechanisms financing source 5 Source: Ministry of Finance 70
Govern ernment ment Securi riti ties es For 2 nd Semester according to Presidential Regulation 72/2020 The government can issue SBN for financing the PEN program purchased by Bank Indonesia in the primary market (Article 21 Auction PP 23/2020). Foreign SKB between the Government & BI phase I has been agreed Denomina- and carried out since the SBN auction April 21, 2020. Retail ted GS As of June 2020, BI's total purchases of IDR 30.3 T *) Gover ernme ment t Securiti ities es *) exclude auction on June 30, 2020, which was part of the receipt of 2020 2 nd Semester financing (GS) (gross oss) Phase II SKB has been signed, will be implemented in stages IDR R 900.4 .4 T according to the real needs of financing GS for BI Private Plans for project foreign activities / 2020 in the amount of Special Placement IDR29,5 T Scheme • Project loan plans for 2 nd semester IDR24,2 T Planned withdrawal of 2020 program loans totaling USD 7.3 With the purchase of SBN to BI through a private billion. placement of IDR397.56 T, the supply of SBN to the • Withdrawal of 2 nd Semester program loans in the amount of eqv. market in the Second Semester of around IDR453 T is USD5.5 billion. still quite reasonable: Source: Ministry of Finance 71
Bur urden den Shar aring ing Schem heme e Betw etwee een n Ministr try y of Finance ance and Bank nk Indo done nesia sia Based on Usage Group: Public Goods vs Non-Public Goods IMPACT CT LOADS S COVID ID-19 19 Burden den Sharin ring Scheme IDR90 R903,4 ,46 T Healt lth IDR 87.55 5 T Issuance Covered by BI with specifically to BI Public lic Goods ds Socia ial l Protection ection 1. Public lic Good ods rate based on BI through private IDR 397.5 .56 T IDR 203.90 90 T Reverse repo 3M placement Sectoral oral K/L, /L, Local Govt IDR 106.11 11 T Covered by Government with 2. Non-Publ ublic ic rate BI Reverse repo Micro cro small ll and Mediu ium Good ods: : Issuance 3M minus 1%, and Enterpris erprises es (MSM SME) E) • MSME through market BI covered the IDR R 123.4 .46 T Corpor porationN ionN • mechanism remaining Non-Publi Public on-MSME on (auction, Green difference with Corpora poratio tion Non-MSM SME Goods ds Shoe Option, market rate IDR R 53.5 .57 T IDR 505.9 .90 T Private Placement according to the Oth thers ers SKB on April 16, IDR R 328.8 .87 T Full Covered by 2020) 3. Non-Publ ublic ic Government Good ods: : Other ers amounting market The Covid-19 impact burden consists of expenses for Public Goods and rate Non-Public Goods with different Burden Sharing Schemes for each usage group. 72
Government ernment Secur curit itie ies Finan anci cing g Realiz ealizat ation ion (as of July y 31, 1, 2020) * Dual-currency bonds issuance using SEC format amounted USD2 bn and EUR1 bn, settlement on January 14, 2020 (BI mid day exchange rate; 1 USD = 13,654 IDR & 1 EUR = 15,207.83 IDR) ** Global bonds issuance using SEC format amounted USD4.3 bn, settlement on April 15, 2020 (BI mid day exchange rate on April 15, 2020; 1 USD = 15,707 IDR) *** Global Sukuk issuance amounted USD2.5 bn on June 16, 2020, settlement on June 23, 2020 (BI mid day exchange rate on June 16, 2020; 1 USD = 14,265 IDR) **** Samurai bonds issuance using public offering amounted JPY100bn, settlement on July 8, 2020 (BI mid day exchange rate on July 2, 2020 : 1 JPY = 134.34 IDR) Source: Ministry of Finance 73
GS Prim imar ary y Mark rket t Perfor ormanc mance e 2019-2020 2020 Through Auction [IDR Trillion] Incoming Bids Awarded Bids % Bid to Cover Ratio (RHS) 400 7,00 6,50 350 6,00 Average Average Incoming 300 5,14 Awarded Bid 2019 = 5,00 Bid 2019 IDR35.48T/ = auction IDR14.14T 250 /auction 3,91 91 4,00 200 3,35 3,17 3,11 2,80 2,97 3,00 3,01 150 2,59 2,36 2,44 2,34 2,12 2,15 2,11 1,97 2,00 1,98 100 1,00 50 - - Average incoming bid in 2020 = IDR55. 55. 86 tn tn/auction uction while average awarded bid in 2020 = IDR14.68 14.68 tn tn/auction uction Source: Ministry of Finance 74
Repub ublic lic of Indon onesi esia – USD0.75 .75bn bn Green en Sukuk uk Global al & US & USD1 D1.7 .75bn bn Suk ukuk uk Gl Global bal Bonds nds Issuance uance Issu suer er Republ blic ic of Indon ones esia ia Issuer Rating Baa2 Moody’s ( Stabil) BBB S&P (Negative) BBB Fitch (Stabil) Format 144A / Reg S, Senior, Unsecure, Wakala US$ Trust Certificate (“ Sukuk ”) issued under a USD$2.5 billion Trust Certificated Issuance Programme Pricing Date June 16, 2020 Settlement Date June 23, 2020 Aggregate Size USD2,5bn 5Y Gree een Sukuk kuk 10Y Y Sukuk kuk USD 30Y Y Sukuk kuk USD Maturity June 23, 2025 June 23, 2030 June 23, 2050 Tranche Size USD0,75bn USD1bn USD0,75bn Coupon 2.3% Fiixed 2.8% Fixed 3.8% Fixed Reoffer Spread UST +195.3bps UST +204.7bps UST +227.7bps Others Details USD200k/ik denoms, English/Indonesia Law Listing Singapore Stock Exchange and NASDAQ Dubai (dual listing) Transaction Highlights Second ROI transaction priced since COVID-19 pandemic The transaction is the lowest ever 5-year and 10-year yield achieved by the Government across both conventional and Sukuk issuances in the US$ market. The transaction is the first ever 30 year Sukuk issuance by the Government with the lowest coupon ever of Global Sukuk issuance in the world and the largest ever 30 year Sukuk from Asia. The transaction has oversubscription of 6.7 times. With the size of orderbook, Government can press the pricing down by 70 bps from the initial price guidance (IPG) and well below its indicative fair value. Source: Ministry of Finance 75
REPUB PUBLIC LIC OF INDONE NESIA SIA - JPY100bn 0bn SAMURAI URAI BOND Issu suer er Republ blik ik of Indon ones esia ia Bond Rating Baa2 Moody’s, BBB S&P , BBB Fitch Format Samurai Bond (Public Offering), Reg S only Pricing Date July 2, 2020 Settlement Date July 8, 2020 Deal Size JPY100bn 3Y FXD 5Y FXD 7Y FXD 10Y Y FXD 20Y Y FXD Maturity July 7, 2023 July 8, 2025 July 8, 2027 July 8, 2030 July 6, 2040 Tranche Size JPY 50.7bn JPY24.3bn JPY10.1bn JPY13.4bn JPY1.5bn Coupon 1.13% 1.35% 1.48% 1.59% 1.80% Reoffer Spread YSO+110bp YSO+130bp YSO+140bp YSO+145bp - Lead Managers Daiwa / MUMSS / Nomura / SMBC Nikko Transaction Highlights First Sovereign Samurai issuance in 2020 and the first issue from Asian after the pandemic declaration and part of the proceeds will be allocated to various projects in response to COVID- 19 RoI’s achievements of successful pricing of benchmark sized transaction while significantly reducing average premium over its US dollar secondary curve across tenor, contributed to encourage the market and proved strong presence of RoI as a leading Samurai bond issuer. Source: Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs 76
Repub ublic lic of Indon onesi esia – USD4.3b .3bn n GLOBA BAL L BONDS DS ISSU SUAN ANCE CE On April 7, 2020, the Republic of Indonesia priced a transaction comprising USD4.3bn in senior unsecured notes Iss ssuer Republic c of Indon onesia esia Investor Breakdown Investor Breakdown by Issuer Rating Baa2 Moody’s (Stable) by Investor Type Region BBB S&P (Stable) BBB Fitch (Stable) RI103 030 Exp. Issue Rating Baa2 Moody’s / BBB S&P / BBB Fitch RI103 030 RI105 050 9% RI105 050 Format U.S. SEC registered 1% 1% 2% 3% 10% 1% 2% 21% Issue Senior unsecured fixed rate notes 4% 45% 1% 26% 22% Pricing Date April 6, 2020 Settlement Date April 15, 2020 52% 20% 25% Aggregate Size USD4,300 mm 64% 71% 20% RI047 470 Long 10.5-yea year Long 30.5-year year Long 50-year year 1% 1% 1% 1% 18% Maturity Oct 15, 2030 Oct 15, 2050 Apr 15, 2070 11% RI047 470 Tranche Size USD1,650 mm USD1,650 mm USD1,000 mm 44% Coupon (p.a.) 3.850% 4.200% 4.450% Reoffer Price 99.573 99.150 99.009 38% Asset Managers Reoffer Yield (p.a.) 3.900% 4.250% 4.500% Insurance/Pension Fund 85% US Europe Asia ex-Indonesia Indonesia Listing Singapore, Frankfurt Open Market Central Bank/Sovereign Wealth Fund Law New York Banks Use of Proceeds For general purposes of the Republic of Indonesia, including Private Banks financing COVID-19 relief and recovery Others Transaction Highlights Net proceeds will be used for general purposes of the Republic, including financing COVID-19 relief and recovery efforts for the Republic to contain the virus and mitigate its impact on Indonesia. The Republic's fiscal policy amidst volatile market conditions includes support for healthcare, the social safety net, and small and medium enterprises. The debut 50-year offering on strong demand in the long end of the curve. The transaction is the largest global offering by the Republic and demonstrates the Republic’s ability to respond swiftly to markets and capture favorable issuance windows. Source: Ministry of Finance 77
Disciplin ciplined ed and Sophistic histicat ated ed Debt t Portf tfolio olio Managemen gement Stabl ble Debt bt to GDP DP Ratio tio Over er the e Years rs Pruden ent t Fisc scal l Defic icit it IDR R Tn Tn Govern vernmen ent Debt bt / GDP (%) 442 442 500 0,0% 407 407 33,63% 362 362 358 358 35,00% 400 30,18% 29,81% 29,40% 28,33% -0,5% 265 265 5.000,0 27,43% 838,60 300 30,00% 24,74% 764,5 200 -1,0% 4.000,0 810,7 25,00% 746,2 100 19 19 14 14 -1,5% 20,00% 734,8 3.000,0 - 755,1 (9) (7) (4) (20) 15,00% (100) -2,0% 4.596,26 677,6 (69) (66) (56) (58) 2.000,0 4.014,8 -1,8% 3.612,7 (200) 3.248,6 10,00% -2,2% 2.780,6 -2,5% (227) 2.410,0 (300) 1.000,0 1.931,2 (298) 8) 5,00% (269) (308) -2,5% -2,6% -2,5% (341) (400) -3,0% - 0,00% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019*) July - 20 Bonds (Net) SBN (neto) Loans (Net) Pinjaman DN & LN (neto) **) Non Debt (Net) Non Utang (neto) Budget Surplus/Deficit Surplus (Defisit) APBN Bond Loan Debt/GDP Ratio [RHS] Fiscal Deficit (%GDP, RHS) Rasio Defisit APBN thd. PDB (RHS) Note: *) as of end of December 2019, **) Preliminary number using GDP assumption Weig ighted ted Avera erage ge Debt bt Maturity turity of ~8. 8.7 Years rs Well ll Divers ersif ified ied Acros ross Differen erent t Curren rencie cies % of Yearl rly y Issuance Aver erage ge Time me To Matur urity 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 100% 6% 5% 6% 6% 7% 8% 9,8 4% 5% 5% 4% 4% 3% ATM (in years) 80% 9,4 27% 26% 29% 30% 31% 32% 9,1 60% 8,7 8,7 8,5 8,4 40% 62% 62% 59% 58% 57% 55% 20% 0% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Jul-20 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Jul-20 Source: Ministry of Finance IDR USD EUR JPY OTHER 78
Well Bala lanced nced Maturity urity Profile ile with h Strong ong Resili silience nce Against nst Ext xtern ernal al Shocks ks Decl clinin ining g Interes erest t Rate te Risks sks Decl clinin ining g Exch change ge Rate te Risks ks 44,5 21,0 20,7 43,4 42,6 19,7 41,3 41,0 19,2 38,2 37,9 17,5 17,0 16,1 14,8 13,7 12,1 10,6 10,6 9,8 8,5 12,8 12,2 12,1 12,3 12,1 11,3 10,7 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Jul-20 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Jul-20 Variable rate ratio [%] Refixing [%] FX Debt to GDP ratio (%) FX Debt to total debt ratio (%) Debt bt Maturity turity Profil ile Upcom coming ing Maturities turities (Next t 5 Yea ears) rs) IDR tn tn 600 IDR Denominated (Triliun Rp) Other Currencies (Triliun Rp) 41,4 41,0 40,4 39,3 500 36,0 34,7 33,9 400 178 162 187 25,5 25,0 178 24,3 24,4 185 22,7 300 21,4 20,1 90 95 130 132 200 132 49 19 10,6 299 284 9,9 9,7 54 105,7 249 8,4 241 8,1 233 7,7 30 26 100 207 36 9 33 6,5 195 176 164 153 156 134 4 38 27 103 95 93 72 98 28 3 3 35 24 31 87 61 49 21 18 37 28 - 5 20 48 33 31 20 - - 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Jul-20 in 1 year (%) in 3 year (%) in 5 year (%) Note: 1. *) as of end of December 2019, preliminary number and using GDP assumption Source: Ministry of Finance 79
Holder lders s of Trada adable ble Centr tral al Governm rnment nt Securities rities More Balance Ownership In Terms of Holders and Tenors Hold lders ers of Tradable Gov’t Domestic Debt Securities Forei eign gn Owners ership ip of Gov’t Domestic Debt Securit ritie ies s by Tenor or 100% 100% 29,8% 34,8% 36,0% 37,5% 37,0% 37,2% 37,7% 38,2% 38,6% 38,6% 80% 39,8% 80% 44,7% 60% 60% 34,1% 37,4% 36,8% 39,0% 35,6% 39,1% 27,8% 39,8% 38,6% 37,8% 38,2% 39,9% 37,7% 37,5% 36,8% 42,0% 40,3% 40% 40% 29,8% 22,7% 20% 20% 22,0% 17,3% 17,8% 31,2% 18,4% 23,9% 23,4% 22,5% 21,1% 20,3% 11,8% 5,2% 5,1% 5,3% 6,7% 1,9% 7,2% 1,3% 5,0% 4,3% 3,5% 3,2% 2,4% 0% 0% Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Jul-20 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Jul-20 0-1 >1-2 >2-5 >5-10 >10 % Foreign Ownership of Total Foreign Holders Domestic Non -Banks Domestic Banks Source: Ministry of Finance 80
Ownership ership of IDR Trada dable ble Centr tral al Governmen rnment t Securitie urities (as of July y 31, 1, 2020) (IDR tn) Descrip iption Dec-16 16 Dec-17 17 Dec-18 18 Dec-19 19 Jul-20 Jul 20 Bank nks* 399.46 22.53% 491.61 23.41% 481.33 20.32% 581.37 21.12% 989.95 31.16% Govt Instit itut utions ions (Bank nk Indones nesia* ia**) 134.25 7.57% 141.83 6.75% 253.47 10.70% 262.49 9.54% 288.13 9.07% Bank Indonesia (gross) 157.88 8.90% 179.84 8.56% 217.36 9.18% 273.21 9.93% 453.42 14.27% GS used for Monetary Operation 23.63 1.33% 38.01 1.81% -36.11 -1.52% 10.72 0.39% 165.30 5.20% Non-Ba Bank nks 1,239.57 69.90% 1,466.33 69.83% 1,633.65 68.98% 1,908.88 69.34% 1,898.94 59.77% Mutual Funds 85.66 4.83% 104 4.95% 118.63 5.01% 130.86 4.75% 139.69 4.40% Insurance Company and Pension Fund 325.52 18.36% 348.86 16.61% 414.47 17.50% 471.67 17.13% 510.09 16.06% Foreign gn Holder ers 665.81 37.55% 836.15 39.82% 893.25 37.71% 1,061.86 38.57% 945.79 29.77% Foreign Govt's & Central Banks 120.84 6.81% 146.88 6.99% 163.76 6.91% 194.45 7.06% 193.10 6.08% Individual 57.75 3.26% 59.84 2.85% 73.07 3.09% 81.17 2.95% 113.22 3.56% Others 104.84 5.91% 117.48 5.60% 134.22 5.67% 163.32 5.93% 190.14 5.98% Total 1,773.28 100% 100% 2,099.77 100% 100% 2,368.45 100% 100% 2,752.74 100% 100% 3,177.01 100% 100% 1) Non Resident consists of Private Bank, Fund/Asset Manager, Securities Company, Insurance Company and Pension Fund. 2) Others such as Securities Company, Corporation, and Foundation. *) Including the Government Securities used in monetary operation with Bank Indonesia. **) net, excluding Government Securities used in monetary operation with Banks. Source: Ministry of Finance 81
Se Sect ction ion 5 Commi mmitme tment t to Susta tain inabil bilit ity y and d Clim imat ate e Chan ange ge Mit itig igat ation ion
Commi mmitmen tment t to Sust stain ainability ability and Clima imate Chang nge e Mitigation igation Republic of Indonesia’s Commitment to Sustainability Including Climate Change Mitigation Background Commitment to o Sustainability For orefront of of En Environmental Pr Protection The President’s Nawacita Pr Progr gramme Indonesia’s Environmental Law was enacted in 2009 based The “Nine Agenda Priorities” of the President’s Commitment to implement the United Nation’s (“UN”) on the concept of sustainable development, prevention, priority actions. Shifting to a low-carbon and Sustainable Development Goals (“ SDG ”) in order to achieve the precaution and a “polluter pays” principle. To better climate-resilient development path is an 2030 development agenda introduced by the UN. Through address environmental issues, the Ministry of Environment integral part of this mission and is integrated in Presidential Regulation No. 59/2017 relating to the and the Ministry of Forestry were merged to become the development policies, strategies and programs implementation of SDGs in Indonesia, the National Ministry of Environment and Forestry in October 2014 Development Planning Agency was instructed to present a roadmap to implement the SDGs Indonesia’s En Environmental Commitment andObje jectives Mitigation Mi Ada daptation Biod odiver ersity • • Adopted the National Action Plan for Greenhouse Gas Emission National Action Plan on Climate Change Adaptation: National • Indonesia is an archipelago made up of 17,504 Reduction in 2011. framework for adaptation initiatives mainstreamed into the islands with unique ecosystems containing a National Development Plan. large number of diverse species. • Focuses on reducing greenhouse gas emission through a National Determined Contribution with an unconditional reduction target of • Medium Term Development Plan 2020-2024 (RPJMN): reflects • Indon onesi sian Bi Biod odiversi sity St Strategy and Action on Plan 29% by 2030 compared to the 2010 baseline. An additional 12% Indonesia’s strong commitment to shift to a low carbon 2015 2015-202 2020: launched to provide an outline on reduction is conditional on technology transfer, capacity building, development based approach to economic development and a how biodiversity could be utilized sustainably results for payment and access to finance. more climate resilient path. Includes key priorities such as to improve economic and development • Environmental Fund Management Agency (BPLDH): established in renewable energy and energy efficient development, forest opportunities. October 2019 with the vision to create a trusted institution to attract conservation and reforestation, waste management, land national and international donors as well as effectively mobilize public intensification, food security as well as governance and and private fund in order to support protection programmes. institutionalization of investment and regulation. Source: Green Sukuk Report 2020, Bank Indonesia, Ministry of Finance 83
Indonesia’s Existing Green Bond and Suk ukuk uk Frame mewor ork Existin sting g Green n Bond d and Sukuk Framewor ork k under which h the Republic ublic of Indone onesia sia can Finance nce and Refina nance nce Select cted ed Eligib ible e Projects cts 2 3 1 4 Project Evaluation Management of Proceeds Use of proceeds Reporting and Selection Management- Ministry of Finance of Green Bond and GreenSukuk Ministry of Finance will Review and approval The Green Bond and Green Sukuk proceeds prepare and publish a process by Ministry of Green Bond and Green will be credited to a designated account of Eligible Green Finance and National relevant ministries for funding exclusive Sukuk annual report Projects must fall Development Planning projects as previously defined. Allocation is on the list of projects, into one of the Agency amounts of proceeds managed by Ministry of Finance. nineeligible allocated to such sectors projects and Line Ministries estimation of The line ministries utilizing the proceeds beneficial impacts shall track, monitor and report to Ministry of Finance, on the environmental benefits of the Eligible Green Projects The Framework has received a second opinion from the Centre for International Climate Research (CICERO) and is awarded medium green shading, which allows the possibility of light, medium and dark green project types. This shade also shows that eligible listed projects are representing the country ongoing efforts towards the long-term vision in carbon emission reduction Source: Indonesia’s Green Bond & Green Sukuk Framework 84
Indonesia’s Existing Green Bond and Suk ukuk uk Frame mewor ork k (Cont’d) Existin sting g Green n Bond d and Sukuk Framewor ork k under which h the Republic ublic of Indone onesia sia can Finance nce and Refin inan ance ce Select cted ed Eligible ible Project cts Source: Green Sukuk Issuance Allocation and Impact Report (February 2020) 85
Indonesia’s Green Initiatives: Financing Green Projects Development of Indonesia’s Green Projects Financing The Republic of Indonesia has issued two sovereign global Green Indonesia has continued to develop the Green market through the introduction of the first Retail Sukuk, consecutively in February 2018 and 2019, with the total Green Sukuk in the world (Savings Retail Sukuk, ST006) in November 2019. The ST006 is an amount of USD 2 Billion investment instrument based on Sharia principles issued and sold to individual Indonesian citizens in the domestic market with an online platform. Allocation and impact of the Retail Green Sukuk is not 2019 Issuance 2018 Issuance included in the Green Sukuk Issuance Allocation and Impact Report issued in February 2020 USD 750 million USD 1.25 billion (or IDR 11.25 trillion) (or IDR 16.75 trillion) 29% allocated to Green investors* 29% allocated to Green investors* Each issuance comprised of: and 49% financing new projects 51% refinancing existing projects Allocation by Sector Managed by 3 Ministries: Note: Information extracted from Green Sukuk Issuance Allocation and Impact Report (February 2020), and subject to change and assurance from PwC. Projects were financed in Indonesian Rupiahs and the currency exchange rate based on the State Budget Assumption for 2019 budget year of IDR 15,000 per USD was used to re-calculate the spent amount on each project *These statistics are based on the HSBC’s in house assessment of investor ESG/ SRI appetite and sophistication, which is deve loped from Market Intelligence and our own understanding from client conversations. A green classification is assigned to investors taking into account whether they have Green/SRI fund and/or strategy, whether they are signatories of a variety of SRI initiatives and with awareness to their broader activities / public announcements in the SRI market. Classifications evolve over 86 time
Indonesia’s Green Initiatives: Projected Environmental Benefits Environmental Benefits Arising from Indonesia’s Green Sukuk Issuan suance ce 3,21 3,218,0 ,014.41 to tonnes CO2e emissions reduced, towards a low carbon future 691.4 km 691. km of railway constructed, linking the nation 2,05 2,056,2 ,200 7,42 7,429 kW kWh of households benefitting from of additional power improved waste management generation capacity Source: Green Sukuk Issuance Allocation and Impact Report (February 2020) 87
Tangible Results from Indonesia’s Green Sukuk Init itiat iativ ives es Green Projects Refinanced and Financed with Proceeds from Indonesia’s Green Sukuk uk Issuance suance Ren Renewable le Energy Resilie Resilience ce to Cl Clim imate Ch Change Wast aste an and Waste to Energy Ma Management Loc ocati tion ons Across the country Across the country Across the country Amou mount nt Co Committ mmitted ed to o USD4.31 mil USD96.57 mil USD10.83 mil Fina Fi nanc nce 2019 2019 Projects ts Amou mount nt Co Committ mmitted ed to o USD63.13 mil USD39.62 mil - Refin efinance 2017 2017 Projects ts 134,872.41 tonnes of CO2e - In order to achieve 48,000,000 tonnes target set in RAN-GRK Targ rget t Impa mpact / Emis missio ions Reductio tion (2017 2017) • • • Pla Plannin ing, Dev evelo elopmen ent and Super ervisi sion of of New ew, Cons Co nstru tructio tion of of Fl Flood ood Co Cont ntro rol Fa Facil ilitie ties (Financing) Impro rovem emen ent of of Munic icip ipal Soli lid Wast ste Managem emen ent Ren enew ewable le Ener ergy and Ener ergy Conser ervatio tion Syste stem (Refinancing) Inf nfra rastru tructu ture re (Refinancing and Financing) Construction of retention ponds/polders, flood canals, dikes, Construction of new and renewable energy infrastructure, checkdam, and river maintenance and normalization. It aims Improvement of basic waste management infrastructure with a focus on areas outside current electricity coverage. to reduce the risk of flooding due to increased rainfall services through the development of city, regional and The project aims to improve the electrification ratio in off- intensity and land use changes. special area-scale of final disposal sites. Project Example les Fi Fina nanced ed / grid areas across the country. Power generation is sourced Locations: All provinces except East Kalimantan Ref efin inanced from solar, mini hydro, and micro hydro power plants*. Locations: West Java, Central Java, Yogyakarta, North • Sumatera, West Sumatera, South Sulawesi, Maluku, Bali Impro rovem emen ent of of Munic icip ipal Soli lid Wast ste Managem emen ent Locations spread across 19 provinces in 2017 (Refinancing) Syste stem (Financing) and the 2019 development of such infrastructure are spread across all provinces (Financing) Improvement of basic waste management infrastructure services through the development of city, regional and special area-scale of final disposal site. Locations spread across 11 provinces *Micro-hydro is of <100 kW and mini-hydro is of 100 kW-10 MW Note: Information extracted from Green Sukuk Issuance Allocation and Impact Report (February 2020), and subject to change and assurance from PwC Projects were financed in Indonesian Rupiahs and the currency exchange rate based on the State Budget Assumption for 2019 budget year of IDR 15,000 per USD was used to re-calculate the amount spent on each project 88
Tangible Results from Indonesia’s Green Sukuk Initiatives (Cont’d ) Green Projects Refinanced and Financed with Proceeds from Indonesia’s Green Sukuk uk Issuance suance Proceeds from Indonesia’s Green Sukuk Initiative has been Successfully Deployed to a Range of Eligible Green Projects Sustain Su inable le Tr Transport rt Energy Effic icie iency cy Loc ocati tion ons Jakarta, Sumatera, Java Across the country Amou mount nt Co Committ mmitted ed to o USD288.77 mil - Fina Fi nanc nce 2019 2019 Projects ts Amou mount nt Co Committ mmitted ed to o USD77.95 mil USD202.72 mil Refin efinance 2017 2017 Projects ts 1,543,000 tonnes of CO2e 355,394 tonnes of CO2e Targ rget t Impa mpact / Emis missio ions Reductio tion (2017 2017) • • • Dev evelo elopmen ent of of Ja Jabodeta etabek ek Urb rban Tra rain in Construction and Management of Ins nsta tall llatio tion of of Navig igatio tion Fa Facil ilitie ties (Refinancing) (Refinancing) Double Track Railways Infrastructure and Supporting Construction, rehabilitation and replacement of marine navigation aids and the installation of Construction of double-double track of the Facilities (Refinancing and solar cells to power marine navigation aids. The shift towards solar powered marine Jabodetabek urban railway network. Financing) navigation aids reduces the use of fossil-fuel sources of power. Locations: Jabodetabek (Jakarta, Bogor, Locations: spread across 21 provinces in 2017 Depok, Tangerang, Bekasi) The construction of the double track • railway project in the Trans Java Impro mprovem ement of of Land Transpo porta rtati tion on Traffi ffic Mana nagem ement Syste stem (Refinancing) • Constr Co structio tion and Managem emen ent of of railway’s northern section, upgrading Project Example les Fi Fina nanced ed / Rail ilways Infra frastru structu ture re and Supportin rting the single-track railway. Installation of road traffic equipment such as traffic signs, area traffic control systems (ATCS) Refin efinanced d in n 2019 2019 Facil iliti ities in in Sumater tera (Refinancing and Locations: Jabodetabek (Jakarta, Bogor, and navigation aids for river and take crossings (SBNP) with energy-saving sensors. Financing) Depok, Tangerang, Bekasi) Locations: Jakarta, West Java, Central Java, Yogyakarta, East Java • Construction of the Trans Sumatera Railway Co Cons nstru tructio tion, Rehabil ilita tatio tion and nd Main inte tena nance of of Airp rport ort Inf nfra ra-stru tructu ture res (Refinancing) from Aceh to Lampung province. The Trans Sumatera Railway causes a mode shift from The installation of solar-powered street lights and solar power plants. It improves the energy road transport to rail transport and logistics efficiency of airports and ensure electricity is sourced from renewable sources Locations: Aceh, North Sumatera, West Locations: spread across 30 provinces in 2017 Sumatera and South Sumatera Note: Information extracted from Green Sukuk Issuance Allocation and Impact Report (February 2020), and subject to change and assurance from PwC Projects were financed in Indonesian Rupiahs and the currency exchange rate based on the State Budget Assumption for 2019 budget year of IDR 15,000 per USD was used to re-calculate the spent amount on each project 89
Se Sect ction ion 6 Monet netar ary y an and d Fi Fina nanc ncia ial Fac actor: or: Cred edib ible e Monet etary y Polic icy y Track k Rec ecor ord d and d Favoura rable ble Fi Financia ial Sec ector or
Bank Indonesia’s Policy Mix To Maint ntain in Macroeco oecono nomi mic c and Financi ncial System em Stabil bilit ity Accommodative monetary policy consistent with controlled inflation Implementing Macro prudential in the target corridor, while serving Intermediation Ratio (RIM) as a pre-emptive measure to Implementing Macro prudential Liquidity maintain domestic economic growth Buffer (MLB) momentum 2 1 Stabilize exchange rate consistent with fundamentals Macro- pruden enti tial al Monetar etary Optimize monetary operations in Polic Po icy order to ensure market Polic Po icy Electronification: Social program, e- mechanisms and adequate liquidity payment for Government in the money and foreign exchange Financial technology markets 3 National Payment Gateway (NPG) QRIS (QR Indonesia Standard) Paymen ent Expanding National Clearing System Coordina dinati tion on System em (SKNBI) services with ot other Po Polic icy Controlling inflation: TPIP, TPID Authorit horities ies 4 Structural reforms: Government 5 Developing market instruments for financing Financial deepening & stability: KSSK infrastructure Financ ncia ial l Market et (Financial System Stability Developing financial market infrastructures Committee), OJK (Financial Services Deepening pening Authority) Rupiah Interest Rate Swaps (IRS) and Overnight Index Coordinating efforts in reducing Swap (OIS) Current Account Deficit Domestic non-Deliverable Forward (DNDF) Developing the Commercial Papers (Surat Berharga Komersial) Source: Bank Indonesia 91
Bank k Indones esia ia Polic licy y Mix: : August ust 2020 The BI Board rd of Govern rnors ors agreed on 18th and 19th August st 2020 to hold the BI 7-Day y Reverse rse Repo Rate at 4.00%, , while le also mainta tainin ining the Deposit osit Facil ility ity (DF) and Lendin ding g Facil ility ity (LF) rates s at 3.25% % and 4,75%. Focusing on the Strengthening synergy with the quantity channel by banking industry, FinTech, providing liquidity to Maintaining rupiah Lowering the Strengthening Government and relevant stimulate economic exchange rate minimum limit of monetary authorities to accelerate recovery from the stabilization policy in down payment on operations digitalization, amongst others, by Holds COVID-19 pandemic, line with the green automotive strategy in order supporting SME digitalization and BI7DRR at including BI currency's loans/financing from to accelerate the Made in Indonesia National 4,00% supporting for the fundamental value 5-10% to 0%, in monetary policy Movement (GERNAS BBI), while Government in and market compliance with transmission expanding community based accelerating state mechanisms prudential principles QRIS acceptance and promoting budget realization in the use of QRIS for e-commerce 2020 92 Source: Bank Indonesia
Stren rengt gthen ened d Monetar etary Exp xpansion ansion and Fiscal al Synergy ergy PRINC NCIPL PLES ES OF FUNDING DING AND BURDEN EN SHARING RING • Bank Indonesia continues to strengthen synergic monetary expansion and the acceleration of fiscal stimuli by the government to drive the national economic recovery by continues its commitment to funding the 2020 state budget through SBN purchases in the primary market in accordance with Act No. 2 of 2020 through market mechanisms and private placements as part of the efforts to accelerate the national economic recovery program, while maintaining macroeconomic stability • As of 18th August 2020, Bank Indonesia had purchased Rp42.96 trillion of SBN in the primary market through market mechanisms pursuant to the Joint Decree of the Minister of Finance and Governor of Bank Indonesia issued on 16th April 2020, through auction schemes, green-shoe options (GSO) and private placements • SBN purchases by Bank Indonesia in the primary market through private placements based on the Joint Decree of the Minister of Finance and Governor of Bank Indonesia issued on 7th July 2020 currently total Rp82.1 trillion • Through Bank Indonesia's commitment to purchase SBN in the primary market, the Government can focus on accelerating state budget realization in order to stimulate national economic recovery 93
Bank k Indones esia ia Polic licy y Mix: : July y 2020 The e BI Boar oard of Gove vernor rnors agree reed on 15th h and 16th July 2020 20 to lowe wer r the BI 7-day day Rever everse e Repo o Rate e by 25 bps to 4.00%, , Depos osit it Facil ility ity (DF) rate te by 25 bps to 3.25% % and Lending ding Facili ility ty (LF) rate te by 25 bps to 4.75%. . Strengthening a synergized expansive Maintaining Rupiah monetary policy response with accelerated Strengthening exchange rate fiscal stimuli from the Government: Expediting payment system policy coordination stabilization policy • Firmly committed to funding the State digitalisation in order to hasten with the in line with the Revenue and Expenditure Budget (APBN) implementation of the digital Government and currency's 2020 through Government Securities Lower economy and finance as part of Financial System fundamental value (SBN) purchases in the primary market to BI7DRR by the economic recovery efforts Stability and market finance the budgets for healthcare, social 25 bps to through collaboration between Committee (KSSK) mechanisms protections, sectoral government 4,00% the banking and FinTech to maintain to control low ministries and agencies & local industries to expand MSME and macroeconomic inflation within the government public access to economic and and financial 3.0% ± 1% target • Burden sharing with the Government to financial services system stability. corridor in 2020 accelerate MSME and corporate sector and 2021. recoveries 94 Source: Bank Indonesia
Bank k Indones esia ia Polic licy y Mix: : June 2020 The e BI Boar oard of Gove vernor rnors agree reed on 17th h and 18th June e 2020 20 to lowe wer r the BI 7-day day Rever everse e Repo o Rate te by 25 bps to 4,25%, , Depos osit it Facil ility ity (DF) rate tes low ower ered ed 25 bps to 3,50% % and Lending ding Facili ility (LF) rates tes low ower ered d 25 bps to 5,00% Strengthen its policy mix Consistently Continues to and synergise to Continues to improve maintain price Maintains an optimise monetary implement the follow-up the effectiveness of stability and accommodative operations in order policies required through payment system strengthen policy macroprudential policy to safeguard coordination with the Lower the BI policy in the New coordination with stance in line with the market Government and 7-day Normal era, the central and current policy mix and mechanisms and Financial System Stability Reverse Repo particularly in terms local governments national policy mix, preserve adequate Committee in order to Rate by 25 of digital economic to control low including various liquidity in the maintain macroeconomic bps to 4,25%. activity through inflation within the efforts to mitigate risk money market and and financial system broader QRIS 3.0% ± 1% target in the financial sector foreign exchange stability, while supporting implementation in corridor in 2020 caused by COVID-19. market. the national economic various sectors. and 2021. recovery. 95 Source: Bank Indonesia
Bank k Indones esia ia Polic licy y Mix: : May 2020 2020 Mitiga igating ting the ri risk of COVID ID-19 tra ransmiss smissio ion Mechan anism ism for Bank k Indonesia onesia to purcha hase se SBN in the primar ary y market et to finan ance e the State Revenue and Expenditu the enditure e Budget et (APBN) – Ab Above e the Line In accordance with the joint decree issued by the Minister of Finance and Bank Indonesia Governor, SUN/SBSN purchases by Bank Indonesia in the primary market are based on general practices through transparent market mechanisms to maintain good governance. The mechanism for Bank Indonesia to purchase SUN/SBSN in the primary market is divided into three stages as follows: (i) Phase I: As a non-competitive bidder, Bank Indonesia can purchase SUN/SBSN in the primary market based on the following provisions: Yield commensurate with the weighted average yield of the auction on the same day Maximum SUN bid of up to 25% of the target auction maximum and maximum bid on SBSN > 1 year of up to 30% of the target auction maximum. (ii) Phase II: A greenshoe option based on the following provisions: Yield commensurate with the weighted average yield of the auction on the previous day. If the incoming bid is lower than the auction target, the maximum offer is the same as the previous offer. (iii) Phase III: Private placements based on the following provisions: Refer to the latest market price published by the Indonesia Bond Pricing Agency (IBPA). Private placements are implemented if the Government seeks additional financing based on the agreed terms and conditions. Bank Indonesia provide interest remuneration on the government account as a form of burden sharing to reduce the state budget burden. SBN purchases by Bank Indonesia in the primary market as a follow-up action to Act No. 2 of 2020 currently stand at IDR23.98 trillion, with IDR166.21 trillion purchased in the secondary market for stabilisation purposes. Consequently, BI holdings of SBN were recorded at IDR443.48 trillion on 26th May 2020. 96
Bank k Indones esia ia Polic licy y Mix: : May 2020 2020 Mitiga igating ting the ri risk of COVID ID-19 tra ransmiss smissio ion Nation ional al Economi mic Recover ery y and state e budget et finan ancin ing g mechan anism ism – Below ow the Line Bank Indonesia is providing liquidity to the banking industry through a repo mechanism for SBN in order to fund loan restructuring as part of the national economic recovery. If SBN purchases are insufficient, banks can apply to the government for fund placements, funded through SBN purchases by Bank Indonesia (below the line). In accordance with Government Regulation No. 23 of 2020, government fund placements will only occur at participating banks if SBN available for repo to Bank Indonesia are insufficient, provided the participating bank is healthy based on a soundness assessment conducted by OJK and is holding tradeable government securities (SBN), Bank Indonesia certificates of deposit (CD), Bank Indonesia Certificates (SBI), Bank Indonesia Sukuk (SukBI) and Islamic Bank Indonesia certificates (SBIS) that have not been repo totaling more than 6% of third party funds. Liquidity from Bank Indonesia to the banking industry for loan restructuring is provided through the following mechanisms: (i) Phase I: SBN Repo Total SBN held by the banking industry as of 14th May 2020 was recorded at IDR886.0 trillion. After meeting the Macroprudential Liquidity Buffer (MPLB) requirements for the banking industry, approximately IDR563.6 trillion must be repo to Bank Indonesia prior to applying for government fund placements. The current position of repo SBN to Bank Indonesia stands at IDR43.9 trillion. (ii) Phase II: Government fund placements in accordance with Government Regulation No. 23 of 2020 (iii) Phase III: Repo SBN - Macroprudential Liquidity Buffer (MPLB) Pursuant to Bank Indonesia regulations (Macroprudential Liquidity Buffer - MPLB), banks are required to maintain minimum SBN totaling 6% of deposits (IDR330 trillion) for liquidity management in addition to the 3.5% reserve requirements All SBN, totaling IDR300 trillion, can be repo through monetary operations in accordance with the Bank Indonesia Act before applying for short- term liquidity loan/financing facilities (PLJP/S).Bank Indonesia provide interest remuneration on the government account as a form of burden sharing to reduce the state budget burden. (iv) Phase IV: Short-term liquidity loan/financing facilities (PLJP/S)in accordance with Act No. 2 of 2020 Banks can apply for the short-term liquidity loan/financing facilities (PLJP/S)if the SBN already repoed are nearly depleted. Pursuant to Act No. 2 of 2020, short-term liquidity loan/financing facilities (PLJP/S) are only available to solvent and healthy banks based on OJK requirements and assessments, with adequate repayment capacity and guaranteed by current loans registered at Bank Indonesia. 97
Bank k Indones esia ia Polic licy y Mix: : April il 2020 The e BI Boar oard of Gove vernor rnors agree reed on 13th h and 14th Apri ril l 2020 20 to hold ld the BI 7-Day ay Rev ever erse se Repo o Rate te at 4.50%, , while le also so main inta tainin ing the Deposit osit Facili ility (DF) and Lending ding Facili ility ty (LF) rates tes at 3.75% % and 5.25%. . Rupiah iah Reserv serve Requ quir irem emen ent Lowe wered d by 200 bps 1) To stabilize and strengthen rupiah exchange rates, Bank Indonesia has strengthened the intensity of triple intervention policy through the spot and Domestic Non-Deliverable Forward (DNDF) markets, as well as purchasing SBN in the secondary market. 2) To support national economic recovery efforts from the deleterious COVID-19 impact, Bank Indonesia will increase monetary easing through quantitative easing as follows: a. Expand monetary operations by providing banks and the corporates a term-repo mechanism with SUN/SBSN underlying transactions of tenors up to one year. b. Lower the rupiah reserve requirement ratios by 200bps for conventional commercial banks and by 50bps for Islamic banks/Islamic business units, effective from 1st May 2020. c. Relax the additional demand deposit obligations to meet the Macroprudential Intermediation Ratio (MIR) for conventional commercial banks as well as Islamic banks/Islamic business units for a period of one year, effective from 1st May 2020. 3) To strengthen liquidity management in the banking industry and in relation to the lower rupiah requirements, Bank Indonesia has raised the Macroprudential Liquidity Buffer (MLB) by 200bps for conventional commercial banks and by 50bps for Islamic banks/Islamic business units, effective from 1st May 2020. The banking industry is required to meet the additional MLB through purchases of government issued SUN/SBSN in the primary market. 4) To increase the uptake of non-cash payment instruments in order to mitigate the COVID-19 impact, Bank Indonesia is increasing various payment system policy instruments as follows: a. Supporting government programs to accelerate non-cash social aid program (bansos) disbursements to members of the public in conjunction with payment system service providers by expediting the electronification of relevant social programs, including the Family Hope Program (PKH), Noncash Food Assistance Program (BPNT), Pre-Employment Card and Smart Indonesian Card (KIP). b. Increasing public socialization activities in collaboration with payment system service providers to increase the uptake of non-cash payment instruments through digital banking, electronic money and broader QRIS acceptance. c. Relaxing credit card policy by lowering the upper limit for credit card interest, minimum payment requirements and the penalties for late payments, while supporting credit card issuer policy to extend the due date for customers. 98
Bank k Indones esia ia Polic licy y Mix: : April il 2020 2020 Mitiga igating ting the ri risk of COVID ID-19 tra ransmission smission As a f follo low-up measure e to strength engthen en monet etar ary y and finan ancial ial market et stabil ility ity in conjunct junction ion with h the Coordin dinat atin ing g Ministr istry y of Econom omic ic Affair irs, s, Ministr istry y of Finan ance, e, Indon onesian sian Finan ancia ial l Service ices s Authori ority ty (OJK) and Deposit sit Insuran ance e Corporat oration ion (LPS), , the Govern ernor or of Bank k Indonesia, onesia, Perry y Warjiy iyo, , on April il 1st 2020 deliv iver ered d The policy icy mix imp mpleme emented d by Bank k Indonesia onesia to mitiga gate e the COVID ID-19 imp mpact is as follo lows ws: 1) Lower the BI 7-Day (Reverse) Repo Rate in February and March by 25bps respectively; 2) Intensify triple intervention policy in the spot and DNDF markets and purchasing SBN in the secondary market; 3) Reduce the foreign currency reserve requirements for conventional commercial banks from 8% to 4%; 4) Extend the SBN repo tenor and provide daily auctions to loosen rupiah liquidity as well as increase the frequency of FX Swap auctions to daily in order to ensure adequate liquidity; 5) Expand the types of underlying transactions for Domestic Non-Deliverable Forwards (DNDF), thus increasing hedging alternatives against rupiah holdings in Indonesia; 6) Lower the rupiah reserve requirements by 50bps for banks that are engaged in export-import financing, as well as the financing of MSMEs and other priority sectors; 7) Loosen the Macroprudential Intermediation Ratio (MIR); 8) Provide hygienic currency fit for circulation, reduce the costs of the National Clearing System (SKNBI), maintain a QRIS Merchant Deposit Rate (MDR) of 0% for micro-merchants, and support non-cash disbursements of various government programs, including the Family Hope Program (PKH) and Noncash Food Assistance Program (BPNT), as well as the Pre-Employment Card and College Smart Indonesia Card. Bank Indonesia reiterated that rupiah exchange rates are currently adequate and the outlook scenario formulated for the main macroeconomic indicators is a form of forward-looking anticipatory measure towards prevention through joint efforts, while Bank Indonesia continues to maintain rupiah stability. 99
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