Con once certed ed Effor orts ts to o Mitigat tigate Covi vid-19 9 Risk General al Measures ures 1 8 Establishment of a COVID-19 Task Force to Accelerate Decentralized tests by increasing the number of Covid-19 Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Handling test laboratories throughout Indonesia. 2 9 Extension of the emergency status for COVID-19 until 29 th Providing Designated Hospitals, including additional May 2020 designated hospital in Galang Island. 3 10 Permission for civil servants to work from home, while Utilization of four (4) of ten (10) Wisma Atlet Kemayoran maintaining the continuity of public services Towers (former Athletes Hotel) as emergency hospital. Promoting massive prevention of the spread of Covid-19; Preparation of 606 health workers and 192 non-health 11 application of health protocols in public areas, public workers in Wisma Atlet Kemayoran and recruitment of 328 4 transportation, and offices; calls for carrying out social medical volunteers and 2590 non-medical personnel in the distancing and the prohibition of carrying out activities that field of logistics and operations. involve large crowds. 12 5 Establishment of Contingency Plans in the regions level. Closing and limiting the mobility of Indonesian citizens abroad and foreigners to enter Indonesian territory with Preparation of drugs that have been used for Covid-19 13 strict immigration and health protocols.. patients in China according to doctor's prescription. The 6 drug has been distributed to designated facilities and its Evacuation of Indonesian citizens from affected countries stock is continuously being augmented with domestic and strict quarantine processes with complete medical pharmaceutical production. . facilities. 14 7 Speed up the procurement and distribution of personal Conducting Rapid Test in 17 provinces with positive patients protective equipment for designated hospitals and the of Covid-19. provision of incentives for medical personnel. 8
Government ernment Measur asures es to o Mitigat tigate e Covid vid-19 Risk Fisc scal and Non Fisc scal al Stimuli muli Fiscal l Stimuli li Phase e 1 Fiscal l Stimul muli i Phase e 2 1 Brought forward the launch of the Pre-Employment Card in 1 Relaxation of Income Tax (PPh Article 21) Bali, North Sulawesi and the Riau Islands Increased disbursements of the Noncash Food Assistance 2 Program (BPNT) from Rp150,000 to Rp200,000 for a six- 2 Relaxation of Income Tax on Imports (PPh Article 22) month period commencing March 2020 3 Provided a stimulus package for housing in the form of an Rp800 billion subsidy as well as a subsidy on down payments 3 Relaxation of Income Tax (PPh Article 25) totalling Rp700 billion 4 4 Relaxation of Value Added Tax (VAT) Restitution Provided incentives for domestic and international travellers 5 Reduced the air passenger service fee (PSF) by 20% for March-May 2020 Non Non-Fisc iscal Stimuli li Discounted the price of aviation fuel at airports located 6 1 Reduce and simplify restrictions on export activities to around nine travel destinations for March-May 2020 maintain export performance and competitiveness Subsidised or provided grants totalling Rp3.3 trillion to local 2 Reduce and simplify restrictions on import activities to ensure 7 governments affected by lower tax revenues food service the availability of raw materials activities 9
Bank Indonesia’s Meas easure ures to o Miti tigat gate Covi vid-19 9 Risk To mainta ntain n Monet etary y and Fina nanci ncial Mark rket t Stability Measu asures s Launched hed on March 2, 2020 Measu asures s Launched hed on March 18-19, , 2020 Strengthening the intensity of triple intervention policy to 1 Strengthening the intensity of triple intervention policy to 1 maintain rupiah exchange rate stability in line with the currency's maintain rupiah exchange rate stability in line with the fundamental value and market mechanisms. currency's fundamental value and market mechanisms Extending the SBN repo tenor to 12 months and providing daily 2 2 auctions to loosen rupiah liquidity in the banking industry. Reducing the foreign currency reserve requirement ratio for conventional commercial banks from 8% to 4%, effective 16 th March 2020. Increasing the frequency of FX swap auctions for 1, 3, 6 and 12- 3 month tenors from three times per week to daily auctions in order to ensure adequate liquidity. 3 Reducing the rupiah reserve requirement ratio by 50bps for Strengthening foreign currency term deposit instruments in order 4 banks engaged in export-import financing activity in to enhance foreign currency liquidity management in the coordination with the Government. domestic market. Expediting the enforcement of domestic vostro rupiah accounts 5 for foreign investors as underlying transactions for Domestic NDF, 4 Expanding the types of underlying transactions available to thus increasing hedging alternatives against rupiah holdings. foreign investors as hedging alternatives against rupiah Expanding the incentive of a 50bps looser daily rupiah reserve holdings in Indonesia. 6 requirement beyond banks that are engaged in export-import financing to include the financing of MSMEs and other priority sectors. 5 Global investors may utilise global and domestic custodian 7 Strengthening payment system policy to support COVID-19 banks for investment activity in Indonesia. mitigation efforts . Source: Bank Indonesia 10
Indone nesia sia Remai mains ns the Investmen stment t Dest stinati ination on of Choic ice The Econom omist: Indonesi esia rounds out the top five of Asian economies es that can look Indonesi esia Enjoys oys Large Invest estment ents Relative e to Peers within the Region on 2 forwar ward to increas eased ed invest estment ent spending. g. (January y 2019) 1 40 China 58,3 35 India 48,7 Indonesia 48,1 DP (%) 30 Vietnam 39,8 tment / GDP 25 Singapore 39,2 Thailand 38,5 20 Japan 36,4 vestm 15 Australia 36,4 Total Inve Malaysia 34,2 10 Hong Kong 32,1 31,31 31,27 31,78 34,47 34,52 34,55 23,61 22,48 23,14 26,94 27,21 29,56 24,99 24,95 25,31 26,57 26,34 26,26 5 Philippines 31,9 South Korea 26,3 0 Taiwan 25,2 India Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Thailand Vietnam Myanmar 22,5 2018 2019e 2020e 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 UNCTAD: D: Indonesi esia is listed ed in the top 20 host economies es based ed on FDI inflo flows ws, 2017 JBIC: Among g ASEAN countries, es, Indonesi esia is one of the most preferred place e for business ess and 2018 (June 2019) 2019) 3 invest estment (Decemb ember 2019) 4 300 India 47,8 China 44,6 250 Vietnam 36,4 2018 2017 200 Thailand 32,9 Billion USD Indonesia 25,2 150 US 23,0 Philippines 11,9 100 Mexico 11,6 (x) = 2017 ranking Myanmar 10,1 50 Malaysia 10,1 0 Taiwan 4,5 Korea 3,7 Singapore 3,7 Germany 3,5 % of surveyed who consider each country has promising prospects Australia 3,2 0,0 10,0 20,0 30,0 40,0 50,0 60,0 1. Source: The Economist – Asia Business Outlook Survey 2019 3. Source: United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) – World Investment Report 2019 2. Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, Database October 2019 4. Source: JBIC – Outlook for Japanese Foreign Direct Investment (30th Annual Survey) 11
Medium um-Term erm Nation ional al Developm lopmen ent t Plan n (RPJM JMN) N) 2020 2020-2024 President’s Vision: "The Establishment of an Advanced Sovereign, Independent and Personality Based on Mutual ual Coopera rati tion". n". Presid esident ‘s Miss ssions Top 5 Presid esidentia tial l Prio ioriti ities 7 RP 7 RPJM JMN N De Development Agenda Improvin ing the Qualit ity of the Indon onesia esian Labou our HR HR 1 1 Force ce Stren ength then ening ing Econ conomi omic c Resi esilien ence ce to Develo lopmen ent Achie ieve Superio perior Econ onomi omic Growth owth Achie ieving ing Prod oducti ctive, , Indepen ependen ent t and 2 Comp mpetit etitiv ive e Eco conomic mic Struct cture Devel elop oping ing Mor ore e Remo mote Region gions to to Reduce e Econ onomi omic Gaps ps and Improv ove Equa qualit ity Infrastruc ucture 2 Atta tain inin ing Equitabl quitable and Pros osperou perous Nati tion onal 3 Develo lopmen ent Develop elopme ment Impr prov ovement ment of Qualit ity and Achie ieving ing Sust staina inable Enviro ironment mental 4 Compet mpetit itiv ivenes ess of the e Labour Force ce Climat ate Regulat lation ion 3 Devel elop oping ing Cultu tural Prog ogres ess Simp mplif ific ication on 5 Enga gaging ing in Menta tal Revolu evoluti tion Reflecti ting g the Nation ion's Personalit ity and Cultu ture e Devel elop opmen ment Develop evelopin ing a a Dignified ed and Trust stwor worth thy y Lega egal 6 Sys ystem em Free Free from om Cor orruption Stren ength then ening ing Infrastructu cture e to o Simplifi lifica cation ion of 4 Supp pport ort Econo conomi mic Devel velopm pmen ent t Bureau aucr cracy cy Protect otectio ion of All All Nati tion ons and and and Improv prove Basi sic Services ces 7 Prov ovision sion of Secu curit ity y to All Citizen ens Conse servati tion on of Enviro ironmen ment, t, Supp pporti ting Clima mate te Change, e, and Enhanci cing Disa saster ter Resil silie ience ce Attain ining Good od, , Ef Effecti ective, , and and Econom omic c 8 5 Reliable Govern ernance Tran ansformation on Enhanci cing Polit itical, ical, Lega egal, Defen ense e and Stab ability ty and Transformi orming Public ic Servi vice ces Achie ieving ing Synerg ergy y of Gov overn ernmen menta tal 9 Framewo mework with the Region onal Governmen ent Source: Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs 12
Simplify plifying ing Regulat ulations ions throu ough gh Omnibu ibus s Laws Omnibus us Laws Group p a D Diverse Range of Issues sues into Legisl slati tion, n, Aimed d at Creati ting ng Jobs and Empoweri ering ng SMEs. s. Omnibus Law Pri Omni riori ority Sect ctors ors Financial T axes Labour Sector 1 6 Pillars of Omnibus Law w Perpa pajakan (Taxa xati tion on) 3) Personal Taxpayer 5) Equity of Business 1) Investment Funding 2) Territorial System 4) Taxpayer Compliance 6) Taxation Facility Investment 11 Cluster ters s of Omnibu bus s Law Cipta Lapa pangan Kerja (Job Creati tion on) ) 7) Government Administration 10) Government Investment and 4) Ease, Empowerment and Protection of MSMEs 1) Simplification ofLicensing Projects 8) Imposition of Sanctions 2) Investment Requirements 5) Ease of Doing Business 11) Economic Zone 3) Employment 9) Land Acquisition 6) Research and Innovation Support Following the inauguration of his second presidential term in October 2019, President Joko Widodo announced his administration’s plans to continue regulatory reform by focusing on initiatives such as developing a dynamic and qualified workforce, promoting industry cooperation through technology, further enhancing infrastructure development and economic reform as well as simplifying regulations and bureaucracy. To achieve such ends, President Widodo’s Government subsequently prepared three bills of omnibus laws, namely an omnibus bill on job creation, an omnibus bill on development and strengthening the financial sector and an omnibus bill on tax provision. Omnibus laws refer to laws that group diverse and unrelated issues which are drawn into a bill which is accepted in a single vote by a legislature. 1 Under discussion Source: Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs 13
The Economic omic Policy icy Pa Packages ages “To improve national industry competitiveness, export and investment to generate significant economic growth” Harmoni nizing ng Regul ulat ation ons Simplifying g Bureau eaucrat atic Proc oces ess Ensurin uring g Law Enfor nforceab eability Phase e I (9 (9 Sept pt ’15) Phase se IX (27 Jan ’16) Improving national industry competitiveness Accelerating electricity generation, stabilizing meat prices and Phase e II (29 Sept ’15) improving rural – urban logistics sector Easing permit requirement and simplifying export proceeds Phase e X (11 Feb ’16) requirement Revising the Negative investment List and improving protection Phase e III I (7 Oct t ’15) for SMEs Financial services facilitation, export financing and elimination of Phase se XI (29 29 Mar ’16) business unnecessary burden Stimulating national economy through facilitation to SMEs and Phase e IV (15 Oct t ’15) industries Social safety net and betterment of people welfare Phase e V (22 Oct t ’15) Phase e XII II (28 28 Apr ’16) Improving industry and investment climate through tax incentives and Improving Indonesia’s rank on Ease of Doing Business (EODB) deregulation on sharia banking Phase e XIII I (24 Aug ’1 6) Phase e VI (5 Nov ’15) Low Cost Housing for Low-Income Communities Stimulating economic activities in border areas and facilitating strategic commodities availability Phase e XI XI V (10 Nov ’1 6) Roadmap for E-commerce Phase se VII I (7 De Dec ’15) Stimulating business activities in labor-intensive industries nation-wide Phase e XV (15 Jun ’1 7) through incentives in the form of accelerating land certification process Improving logistics for individuals Phase e XVI (1 (16 Nov ’1 8) Phase se VIII II (21 De Dec ’15) Improving the competitiveness and domestic economy Resolving land acquisition disputes, intensifying domestic oil production, stimulating domestic parts and aviation industries In addit ition on to the 16 Policy icy Packages kages, , on Augus ust 31, 2017 7 the Gover ernment nment has issued sued a Presi sident ential ial Regulat ulation ion No.91/2017 1/2017 for enhanc ancing ing busines siness s license cense service ice stand ndard ard Source: Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs 14
Improving ving the Compe peti titiv tiven eness ess and Domes esti tic c Econom omy th Econom The 16 th omic Policy y Pac Packa kage has been launched hed TAX HOLIDAY DAY EXPANSI SION EXPORT PROCEEDS DS (DHE) SCHEME Backgr groun ound In order to further increase investment value in Indonesia, there is a need for expansion of sector and standard classification of Indonesian Business Fields (KBLI) that are given tax holiday, complemented with a process simplification to receive the tax holiday according to the Online Single Submission (OSS). Objecti tives es and benefit its 1) Increasing investment and strengthening the industrial sectors from the downstream to the upstream through the expansion of the business sector, KBLI’s pioneer industries, and Special Economic Zones (SEZ) that can receive tax holiday facilities Tax Rates es on Deposit 2) Increasing the process of convenience of filing process and Tax Rates es on Deposit Inter eres est Incom ome Inter eres est Incom ome tax holiday facilities provision Source: Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs 15
Progr gress ess of the Economic omic Policy icy Pa Packages ages* 236 36 I – XVI Initially, there are 236 regulations which need to be I – XII TOTAL INITIA IAL REGULA ULATIO IONS NS deregulated 11 11 I – XVI Based on the further assessment, 11 regulations has been I – XII REVOKE OKED REGULA ULATIO IONS revoked from deregulation process 225 25 I – XVI I – XII Total regulation subject to be deregulated: 225 regulations TOTAL REGULA ULATIO IONS NS 223 23 99% 99% SET SET As of October 1 st , 2019, deregulation of 223 regulations are PRES ESIDENTIAL AL LEVEL EL 99% 99% PRESIDE IDENTIA TIAL 54 finished (99%), comprising 53 regulations at Presidential level 53 53 FINISH 47 47 42 42 TOTAL ISHED ED and 170 regulations at Ministerial/Institutional level SELESAI AI MINISTERIAL/I AL/INSTITUTIONAL AL LEVEL EL 99% 99% 171 171 170 FINISH ISHED ED TOTAL 1% 2 ON GOIN ING Total regulation which are still discussed: 2 DISCUS CUSSION ION *as of October 1 st , 2019 Source: Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs 16
Other er Progress ogress on Econom omic ic Polic licy y Pa Packages ages Developme pment nt of Fair, , Simplified mplified & & Spesial Economi mic Zone (SEZ) Project ctable Wage Syst stem 29 Provinces have set 2016 Minimum Wage Investment commitments in SEZ up to 2017 System in accordance to the Government reach 41 T, with 3 hour licenses already Regulation (GR) No. 78/2015 applied in 4 SEZ’s Administrators in 2017 Indus ustrial trial Zone Deregul ulati ation n on Logist stics cs Sector or 52 Bonded Logistic Center has been • The Provinces of Central Java proposed 3 launched to support various industries IZ’s : Kendal, Demak, and Ungaran • Pharmaceutical IZ in Bitung (North Sulawesi) in 2017 17
Investment estment Incentiv entives es to o Boo oost st Industr ustry y Sect ctor or BUSINESS INESS EXPAN ANSION ION INDUS USTR TRIA IAL ZONE NE Tax all llowa owance ce • • VAT exem emption ption on import or delivery of capital goods, Exem emption ption or relief ief of import port duty ty on capita pital l goods, , machine inery ry or equip ipmen ent • • Impo port t Duty ty exem emption ption on machineries/goods/materials, for production purposes that can not be produced domestically; • Tax Allow lowance ce and Tax Holi liday Exem emption ption or relief ief of import port duty ty on raw materi terials ls or auxil ilia iary ry materia terial l for • production purposes for a certain period of time and certain conditions; Exem emption ption or suspe spensio sion of VAT on the e import port of capita pital l goods or • machine inery ry or equipm ipmen ent for production purposes that have not been FREE EE TRAD ADE E ZONES NES AND D PORTS TS produced domestically for a certain period of time; Accelerate depreci reciation tion or amortiz ortization tion (part of tax allowance); and • Property perty tax reli lief ef, especially for certain business sectors in certain regions; Exem emption ption of: • Combine with Online Single Submission (OSS) • Impo port t Duty ty • • VAT • Luxury ry Goo oods s Sales les Tax (PPnBM BM) • Custo toms s duty ty MICRO, O, SMAL ALL, L, MEDIUM IUM ENT NTERPRISES ERPRISES (MSMES MES) PIONEER NEER INDUS USTR TRIE IES Decrea creasing ing MSMEs Es Tax from 1% to 0.5 .5% of gross revenue Tax holid oliday of corporate income tax in a certain amount and time SPECIA CIAL L ECONO ONOMIC MIC ZONE NE E-CO COMM MMERCE CE • No coll llec ection tion of VAT and Luxury ry Goods ods Sales les Tax (PPnBM BM), ), • Sales from customs areas for non non-small ll entrepren repreneu eurs rs through the • Custo toms s tax exem emption ption, market place will be subject to 0.5 .5% incom come e tax and 1% VAT • Tax Allow lowance ce and Tax Holi liday, • Sales from customs areas for small ll entrepren repreneurs rs through the market • Suspe spensio sion of Impo port t Duty ty, place will be subject to 0.5 .5% incom come e tax • 0% Import port Duty ty for goods produced using local components of a certain level Source: Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs 18
New w Tax Hol olida iday y Pol olicy icy* to boost t indu dustr stry y sector BEFORE RE PROVIS VISIO ION AFTER ER Pioneer Industry with minimum investment value of 500bn Rupiah Pioneer Industry with minimum investment value of 1 trillion Rupiah (minimum investment value of 500bn Rupiah for telecommunication sector) Applied to 17 industry groups: (i) upstream base metal; (ii) oil and gas refinery; (iii) petrochemical (oil, gas, Applied to 8 industry groups: or coal based); (iv) non-organic base chemical; (v) organic base chemical; (i) upstream basic metal industry; (ii) oil and gas refinery (vi) pharmaceutical materials; (vii) semiconductor and other components; industry; (iii) organic basic chemicals industry; (iv) machinery (viii) communication devices components; (ix) medical devices industry; (v) plantation, forest, and fishery products Taxpa payer er components; (x) machine manufacturing for industry; (xi) machine main processing industry; (vi) telecommunication, information and components manufacturing; (xii) robotic components manufacturing; (xiii) communication industry; (vii) marine transportation; and (viii) ship components manufacturing; (xiv) airplane components manufacturing; economic infrastructure (xv) train components manufacturing; (xvi) power plants; and (xvii) economic infrastructure 10 – 100% 100% (single rate) Corporat ate Incom ome Tax (CIT) reduc uction ion rate 5 – 20 years depends on the investment value (in IDR): • 5 – 15 years; or 1. 500Bn – 1Tn : 5 years 4. 15Tn – 30Tn : 15 years • Can be extended to 20 years; subject to MoF 2. 1Tn – 5Tn : 7 years 5. ≥ 5Tn : 20 years Conces cession ion perio iod discretion 3. 5Tn – 15Tn : 10 years Not available 50% CIT reduction for the next 2 years Transiti ition on Tax allowance for business expansion can be provided Tax allowance not provided with terms and conditions applied After Tax Holid iday ay *) MoF has issued a new Tax Holiday policy through Regulation No. 35/PMK.010/2018 (PMK-35) dated 4 April 2018. Source: Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs 19
Enhan ancing cing Busin ines ess s License nse Servic ice e Stand andar ard Presi side dent ntial al Regulati ation n to Ac Accelerat rate Ease of Doing ng Busi siness ness has been launche ched Improve efficient, streamlined, & Provide business licensing Overcome the barriers to integrated business license service process assurance in terms of doing business in standards the costs and lead times Indonesia cy Goals 2 4 6 3 5 1 Policy Accelerate the business Increase coordination & synergy Implement integrated licensing process (single licensing process between central & regional submission) government nd Phase st Phase 2 nd 1 st Forming a Task Force to identify & Business license overcome the end-to-end licensing regulatory reforms Main Policy cy barriers Implementing a licensing checklist for Implementation of the Special Economic Zones (KEK), Free Single Submission Trade Zones (FTZ), Industrial Zones & system Tourist Zones Utilizing data sharing Note: 1 st and 2 nd Phase are implemented in parallel Source: Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs 20
Improving ing Invest estment ment Climat mate Online e Single le Submiss missio ion (OSS) Has Been en Launched hed.. ... OSS is a web-based business licensing system intended to cut the red tape involved in obtaining business permits and integrated between the central government and regional administrations Secto tors rs Lorem Ipsum Enviro ironment ment & Public lic Works & Electr tric icit ity Indus ustry ry Sector tor Health th Sector or Suitable for all Forest stry ry Secto tor Housing ng Sector tor Secto tor category, Infor ormation ation & Marine ne & Fishery ery Medic icine ine & Transporta ortation ion Trade e Sector tor Commun unic icati ation on Secto tor Food d Sector or Secto tor Secto tor Other r Sector or The Adva vanta tage ge of Using g OSS Business licenses can Standardized Ellectronically be secured in under an business licenses integrated hour are available The whole licensing Accessible at More practical process is monitored by anytime and the Task Force anywhere Source: Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs 21
Improving ving Investmen stment t Clima imate …Bonded Logistic Center to Improve Indonesia’s Competitiveness Bonded Logistic Center To dat To ate, e, 52 Bond onded ed Log Logis istic tic Cen enter er has has be been en lau launche hed to to suppor ort var ario ious us industries stries. (Pusat Logistik Berikat/PLB) is a facility provided by Ministry of Finance as part of the Small ll and Food d & implementation of the 1 st Economic mediu ium m beverages verages indus ustry y indus ustry Policy Package. Personal Pe onal Oil il and care/ ga gas, s, and PLB facility aims to improve home care e mining ing Synthet thetic ic efficiency and reduce the cost of industry indus ustry textile le transportation and logistics in Auto- (chem emic ical al motive ive Indonesia; support the growth of the substanc ances) indus ustry ry industry. . domestic industry, including small Textile ile Heavy vy (cott otton on) and medium industries; increase Equip uipmen ent t indus ustry indus ustry investment; and to make Indonesia Aircraf raft t to become a logistics hub in Asia MRO RO Defen ence Pacific. indus ustry indus ustry 22
Improving ving Investmen stment t Clima imate e …revising the Negative Investment List Introduc roduction tion of New Foreign reign Owners ership ip Regula lati tion on for Stra rategi tegic c Sectors ctors Sports Center, Pharmace ceutica ical l Raw Materia ials ls Cold storage ge Restaurants, s, Bars Film Proces essi sing g Lab, Crumb Rubber Manufact cturing After Before After Before After Before After Before 100% 100% 100% 100% 33% 85% 49% 51% Priva ivate e Museum, m, Caterin ing, g, apparel el Toll l Road Operator or, Distrib ibutio ion, Warehousi sing Key Reforms ms in Negative e Foreign ign Manufact cturing, g, Exhibit bitio ions s & Teleco comm mmunica icatio ion Testin ing g Company Investmen estment t List st Conventio ions Before After Before After Before After Revision ision of "Partn tnership ip" catego egory y to refer to partn tners ership p with Micro, o, Small and Medium m Ente terprises ses (MSMEs) s) 100% 67% 67% 95% 33% 51% Grandfath ther er Law: w: If a parti ticu cular sector tor is tightened tened in future, e, existi ting g foreign gn Profess essio ional l Train inin ing, g, Golf Course Management, Air Teleco comm mmunica icatio ion Provi vider er invest estor r does s not t need to compl ply y with Transp spor ort Support Service ices, s, Travel el Bureau Consult ltancy cy for Construct ctio ion 1 with Integrated ed Service ices tighter ter stake Before After Before After Before After Stren ength then en implementa mentati tion on of nega gati tive investmen estment t law throu ough active ive roles es from ministr strie ies, s, agen encie ies s and regiona ional 67% 67% 67% 49% 55% 65% gov overnments ments 1 For total project value of IDR10bn and above Source: Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM) 23
Investment estment Realization lization (Q4-2019) 9) Direct rect Inves estm tmen ents ts Top p 8 FDI I Reali lizatio zation by Sectors tors (Q4-2019 vs Q4-2018) 2018) IDR tn Meta tal, , Except ept Mach chine inery ry, , 220 and Equipm ipmen ent Industry stry FDI DDI TOTAL 208,3 200 180 US$1,501.9 ,501.9 mn mn 160 Vehicle cle and d Oth ther r 140 190.4% Transpo porta rtation tion Electrici ectricity ty, , Gas, s, and 120 100 Industry try Water ter Supply pply 80 US$256.9 56.9 mn mn US$1,490.3 ,490.3 mn mn 60 105,3 40 80.6% 6.0% 20 0 Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4 Food od Industry try Mining ing 2017 2019 2015 2016 2018 2013 2014 Investme stment nt US$269.3 69.3 mn mn US$683.7 83.7 mn mn 19.6% Realizat zation 15.3% IDR20 208.3tn 8.3tn Rp159.4 9.4 T IDR185 85.9tn .9tn 434,463 434 463 375,982 37 ,982 Rp145.4 5.4 T Housing, g, Indu dustri trial l Esta tate, te, Transporta portation tion, , Wareh rehou ouse, e, * and Offic ice e Build lding ing and Telec ecom ommunica cation tion 12.0 .0% 9.6% 15.6% .6% US$293.5 93.5 mn mn US$635.8 35.8 mn mn Q4-2018 Q4-2019 72.4% 17.8% Q1-2016 Q1-2017 Q1-2016 Q1-2017 * person * Chem emica cal l and IDR10 105.3tn 5.3tn Pharm rmaceu ceutic tical l Industry stry IDR103. R103.0tn 0tn IDR99 99.0tn .0tn IDR86 86.9tn .9tn US$465.5 65.5 mn mn 9.4% 6.4% 18.5% 18 Q4-2018 Q4-2019 Q4-2018 Q4-2019 Source: Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM), compared to Q4-2018 period 24
Se Sect ction ion 2 Econom onomic ic Factor: or: Strong ong and S d Stable Growth wth Prospect spects Rem emain in Intact ct
Condu duciv cive e Envir ironmen onment t Und Under erpin pinning ning Stron ong g Growt wth Fundament amentals ls Tax base e to be 4th Most Populous us Budget et reform m as a a broadened ed from m part t of larger ger Larges gest Economy in count ntry in the one reduce e economi omic c reform South h East Asia World ld; 64% in dependen ency cy on initiative iative produc uctiv ive age commod moditi ties es Large e and Stable table Consis sisten tent Econ onomy omy Fuel subsi sidie ies s Budget et Refor form Rising ing Middle le Clas ass sign gnifican icantl tly y reduce ced Manag ageab eable le Pruden ent t debt and Afflue luent nt and spen ending Inflat flation ion Rate managem gemen ent redirec ected ted to more Customer ers prod oducti tive e alloca cati tion on Refo form rm-Or Orien iented ed Admin inis istra ration ion Three e main sources ces of financing ing for investm estmen ent t From commod odity ty-based sed to manufactu cturing needs: s: State te and region onal budget, et, State te Owned ed and service ce sectors tors via infrastr structu ture Ente terprises ises and PPP developme opment New w Economic onomic High Conti tinuing ing from 2015 15 polic icy, y, infrastr structu ture will Structure Infrastructu astructure From consu sumpti mption on-led to invest estme ment-led growth owth be high gher than fuel subsid sidy via a stron onge ger manufactu cturin ing sector tor and more Inve vest stme ments ts investmen estment t initiatives iatives Infra rastru tructure cture spend ending ing focuse sed on basic ic infrastru tructu cture e proj ojec ects ts Polici cies es to mainta tain in purch chasin sing g power er to stimu mulate te domesti estic c economy omy in the midst t of Fiscal and non on-fisca iscal incenti tives es to attra tract ct weaken ening ing macroe oecon conomic ic condit ition ons infrastru tructu cture e investmen estment t and promote mote PPP 26
Indonesia’s Strong GDP • Despite global economic moderation, resilient national economic growth has been Stron ong g GDP DP Growt owth 1 maintained in Indonesia. For the year, solid economic growth was recorded at 5.02% in 2019, albeit down slightly from 5.17% in 2018. The main driver of economic growth in % QoQ YoY 2019 was domestic demand, as export performance declined. In the fourth quarter of 7,0 2019, economic growth stood at 4.97% (yoy), down slightly from 5.02% (yoy) in the 5,19 5,065,275,175,18 5,07 5,055,024,97 5,12 4,77 5,17 5,18 5,01 5,05 5,06 5,01 4,94 4,82 5,01 4,93 4,92 4,94 4,74 previous period. 5,0 4,21 4,20 4,01 4,01 3,83 • Solid domestic demand was a key contributor to economic growth momentum in 2019 as 3,74 3,31 3,06 3,27 3,19 3,09 3,14 exports languished on dwindling global demand and sliding international commodity prices. 3,0 Domestic demand was influenced by stable household consumption, which grew 5.04% in 2019, relatively unchanged from the 5.05% posted in 2018. Household consumption was 1,0 0,04 maintained in line with controlled inflation and upbeat consumer confidence. (0,16) (0,36) (0,30) • Furthermore, the general election held in 2019 edged up consumption by non-profit (0,41) -1,0 (0,52) institutions serving households (NPISH) to 10.62% from 9.10% in 2018. Domestic demand (1,73) (1,81) (1,69) (1,70) (1,74) was also buoyed by strong investment performance, building investment in particular which (2,07) -3,0 grew 5.37% in the reporting period, similar to the 5.41% recorded in 2018. Services in the Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 tertiary sector were the main locomotive of economic growth in 2019, led by 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 communications and information, financial services and insurance as well as other services. Favou oura rabl ble GDP P Growt owth Compa pared red to Peers rs 2 Grow owth th Prospe spect % 9,0 Institution stitutions 2020 20 GDP P growth owth (%YoY oY) 8,0 7,0 7,0 6,1 5.3 2020 Budget 6,2 6,0 5,7 Bank Indonesia 4.2 – 4.6 5,0 5,1 5,0 3,7 3,6 4,0 IMF (WEO October 2019) 5.1 3,0 3,2 3,4 5.1 World Bank 2,0 1,0 ADB 5.2 0,0 Consensus Forecast 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019* 2020* 4.8 (March 2020) Bulgaria Colombia India Indonesia Philippines 1. Source: Central Bureau of Statistics of Indonesia (BPS), ** Including non-profit household consumption 2. Source: World Economic Outlook Database – October 2019; * indicates estimated figure 27
GDP Growt wth Brea eakdo kdown GDP DP Growth th Based sed on Expend endit itures ures (%, YoY) 1 2015 2015 2016 2016 2017 2017 2018 2018 2019 2019 By expen enditure re Q1 Q1 Q2 Q2 Q3 Q3 Q4 Q4 Tot ot. Q1 Q1 Q2 Q2 Q3 Q3 Q4 Q4 Tot ot. Q1 Q1 Q2 Q2 Q3 Q3 Q4 Q4 Tot ot Q1 Q1 Q2 Q2 Q3 Q3 Q4 Q4 Tot ot Q1 Q1 Q2 Q2 Q3 Q3 Q4 Q4 Tot ot 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.9 5.0 4.9 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.2 5.0 5.1 5.1 5.0 5.2 5.0 5.0 5.0 HH. Consumption Non profit HH. (8.1) (8.0) 6.6 8.3 (0.6) 6.4 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.6 8.1 8.5 6.0 5.3 6.9 8.1 8.8 8.6 10.8 9.1 17.0 15.3 7.4 3.5 10.6 consumption Government 2.9 2.6 7.1 7.1 5.3 3.4 6.2 (3.0) (4.0) (0.1) 2.7 (1.9) 3.5 3.8 2.1 2.7 5.2 6.3 4.6 4.8 5.2 8.2 1.0 0.5 3.2 consumption Gross Fixed Cap. 4.6 4.0 4.9 6.4 5.0 4.7 4.2 4.2 4.8 4.5 4.8 5.3 7.1 7.3 6.2 7.9 5.8 6.9 6.0 6.6 5.0 4.6 4.2 4.1 4.4 Formation (0.6) (0.3) (1.0) (6.4) (2.1) (3.1) (1.5) (5.9) 3.9 (1.7) 8.4 2.7 16.5 8.4 8.9 5.8 7.5 8.3 4.6 6.5 (1.6) (1.7) 0.1 (0.4) (0.9) Exports (2.6) (7.1) (6.5) (8.6) (6.2) (5.0) (3.4) (4.1) 2.7 (2.4) 4.8 0.2 15.4 11.9 8.1 12.5 14.9 13.8 7.1 11.9 (7.5) (6.8) (8.3) (8.0) (7.7) Imports 4.8 4.7 4.8 5.2 4.9 4.9 5.2 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.0 GDP GDP 1. Source: Central Bureau of Statistics of Indonesia (BPS), ** Including non-profit household consumption GDP DP Growth th by Sector ctor (%, YoY) 2015 2015 2016 2016 2017 2017 2018 2018 2019 2019 By sectors rs Q1 Q1 Q2 Q2 Q3 Q3 Q4 Q4 Tot ot. Q1 Q1 Q2 Q2 Q3 Q3 Q4 Q4 Tot ot. Q1 Q1 Q2 Q2 Q3 Q3 Q4 Q4 Tot ot. Q1 Q1 Q2 Q2 Q3 Q3 Q4 Q4 Tot ot Q1 Q1 Q2 Q2 Q3 Q3 Q4 Q4 Tot ot Agriculture, forestry, and 3.7 6.5 2.9 1.6 3.8 1.5 3.5 3.2 5.5 3.4 7.1 3.3 2.8 2.4 3.9 3.4 4.7 3.6 3.8 3.9 1.8 5.3 3.1 4.3 3.6 fishery Mining and Quarrying 0.6 (3.6) (4.4) (6.0) (3.4) 1.2 1.0 0.2 1.4 0.9 (1.3) 2.1 1.8 0.0 0.7 1.1 2.6 2.7 2.2 2.2 2.3 (0.7) 2.3 0.9 1.2 Manufacturing 4.1 4.2 4.6 4.4 4.3 4.7 4.6 4.5 3.3 4.3 4.3 3.5 4.9 4.5 4.3 4.6 3.9 4.4 4.2 4.3 3.9 3.5 4.1 3.7 3.8 Construction 6.0 5.4 6.8 7.1 6.4 6.8 5.1 5.0 4.2 5.2 6.0 7.0 7.0 7.2 6.8 7.4 5.7 5.8 5.6 6.1 5.9 5.7 5.6 5.8 5.8 Wholesale and Retail Trade, Repair of Car and Motorcycle 3.8 1.6 1.4 3.5 2.5 4.3 4.3 3.7 3.9 4.0 4.6 3.5 5.2 4.5 4.5 5.0 5.2 5.3 4.4 5.0 5.2 4.6 4.4 4.2 4.6 Transportation and Storage 6.3 6.0 7.0 7.5 6.7 7.4 6.5 8.2 7.6 7.4 8.1 8.8 8.9 8.2 8.5 8.5 8.7 5.7 5.5 7.1 5.5 5.9 6.7 7.6 6.4 Information and 9.7 9.3 10.6 9.2 9.7 7.6 9.3 8.9 9.6 8.9 10.5 11.1 8.8 8.3 9.6 7.8 5.1 8.1 7.1 7.0 9.1 9.6 9.2 9.7 9.4 communication Financial service 8.6 2.6 10.3 12.8 8.6 9.3 13.6 9.0 4.2 8.9 6.0 5.9 6.1 3.8 5.5 4.3 3.1 3.1 6.2 4.2 7.2 4.5 6.1 8.5 6.6 Other Services * 5.1 6.5 4.8 5.5 5.4 6.0 5.6 4.5 3.8 4.9 4.2 3.5 4.8 6.0 4,6 5.4 6.2 6.7 6.4 6.2 6.8 7.3 6.4 6.2 6.7 GDP GDP 4.8 4.7 4.8 5.2 4.9 4.9 5.2 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.0 Source: Central Bureau of Statistics of Indonesia (BPS) *Other services consist of 10 sectors (according to Standard National 2008) 28
Regio gional nal Econom omic ic Growt wth Solid domestic demand is supported by increasing income from inter-regional trade, such as in Sumatra. Meanwhile, economic growth in Kalimantan and Bali-Nusa Tenggara has been maintained as exports of primary commodities improved. Source: Central Bureau of Statistics of Indonesia (BPS) 29
Se Sect ction ion 3 Exter ernal l Factor: r: Impr mproved ed Exter ernal Res esil ilie ience ce
Ext xtern ernal al Balance nce under r Control ntrol Support ported ed by Adequate uate Reserves erves Balanc lance e of Payment nts Portrait ait Current ent Accoun unt Deficit within hin Safe Thresh eshold ld US$bn 2014: 2019: 2013: 2015: 2016: 2017: 2018: Indone nesia' ia's Balanc nce of Payment nts US$bn US$bn CA Deficit CA Deficit CA Deficit CA Deficit CA Deficit CA Deficit CA Deficit (US$27.5bn) n) (US$30.4bn) n) (US$29.1bn) n) (US$ S$17.5bn) n) (US$17.0bn) n) (US$16.2bn) n) (US$30.6bn) n) 20 129,18 18 160 8 0,0 0,31 1 6 15 12,38 38 -0,5 1,97 7 4 120 -1,0 10 2 -1,5 4,28 8 5 0 -2,0 80 -2 (8,35) 35) 0 -2,5 -4 -3,0 -2,84 -5 -6 40 -3,5 -8 -10 (8,12) 12) -4,0 -10 (2,06) 06) -15 0 -12 -4,5 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1*Q2*Q3* Q4** Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1*Q2*Q3* Q4** 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019** 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019** Goods Services Primary Income Secondary Income Current Account (%GDP) (rhs) Current Account Capital and Financial Account Overall Balance Reserve Asset (rhs) Source: Bank Indonesia Source: Bank Indonesia Trade Balanc lance Portrai ait Substant antial al FX Reserves es to Mitiga igate Externa nal l Challe alleng nges es 2019: 2018: 2013: 2014: 2015: 2016: : 2017: US$bn FX Reserve ves as of February 2020: US$130.4 bn n Deficit Deficit Deficit Deficit Surplus Surplus Surplus (US$ S$3.2bn) n) (US$ S$8.7bn) n) (Equiv. to 7.4 month ths of imports ts + servicing of government debt) t) (US$ S$4.10bn) n) (US$ S$2.37bn) n) US$7.59bn US$8.83b 3bn US$11.83bn bn US$bn bn Month FX Reserves (LHS) Month of Import & Debt Service (RHS) 130 15 4,00 14 120 13 3,00 12 110 2,00 11 10 1,00 100 9 8 0,00 90 7 -1,00 6 80 5 -2,00 4 70 3 -3,00 2 60 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 1 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 50 - 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 OG Non-OG Total 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 * Preliminary Figure ** Very Preliminary Figure Source: Bank Indonesia 31 Source: BPS
Exch change ange Rate e In Line e with h Fundame ament ntals als Movem emen ent t of Rupia iah The reba ebalan lancin ing of of for orei eign gn capit ital al inf inflo lows ws to to dom omest estic fina financ ncial ial mar arkets ets aft after er IDR/US$ the COVID-19 19 out outbreak eak ha has am amplified lified ex excha hang nge rat ate pr pres essures ures on on the rup upiah iah 15.500 sinc ince the he mid iddle le of of Februar ebruary 2020 2020. Foreign capital inflows have ebbed due to increasing global financial market uncertainty, which has exacerbated 15218 exchange rate pressures on the rupiah, leading to depreciation since the 15.000 14798 middle of February 2020. As of 18th March 2020, the rupiah had 14.381 14.232 14.220 depreciated by an average of 5.18% compared to the average level in 14254 14.500 14.113 14601 February 2020 and by 5.72% (ptp). Compared to the level recorded at the 14120 14.520 end of 2019, therefore, the rupiah has depreciated by around 8.77% in line 13.714 with weaker currencies in other emerging markets. Bank Indonesia will 14.000 14134 IDR/USD continue to strengthen rupiah exchange rate stabilization policy in line with 14064 13952 14.141 13.767 14.006 14.031 the currency's fundamental value and market mechanisms. To that end, Quarterly Average 13.500 Bank Indonesia will increase the intensity of stabilization policy in the DNDF 13924 Monthly Average and spot markets, while purchasing SBN in the secondary market. To data as of March 18 th , 2020 support exchange rate policy effectiveness, Bank Indonesia will continue to 13.000 18-Mar 18-Apr 18-Jun 18-Jul 18-Aug 18-Sep 18-Oct 18-Dec 18-Jan 18-Mar 18-Apr 18-Jun 18-Jul 18-Aug 18-Sep 18-Oct 18-Dec 18-Jan 18-Mar 18-May 18-Nov 18-Feb 18-May 18-Nov 18-Feb optimize monetary operations in order to ensure market mechanisms and adequate liquidity in the money and foreign exchange markets. Rupia iah Exch change ge Rate te Fared red Rela lative tively Well ll Compared red to Peers ers Rupia iah Exch change ge Rate te Volati latilt lty YTD 20 2020 20 vs vs 201 019 -19,63 26,0% BRL *data as of March 18 th , 2020 -9,44 -7,95 TRY -6,04 *data as of March 18 th , 2020 22,3% 2019 -17,32 ZAR -3,70 YTD 2020 -3,84 point-to-point INR -2,05 18,1% Average YTD 2020 -7,18 17,0% KRW average -1,70 16,1% -1,97 EUR 14,7% 14,2% -1,28 -6,40 SGD -0,88 12,9% -1,19 11,5% CNY -0,76 -6,46 MYR -0,11 7,0% 6,5% -8,28 6,0% 6,1% THB 5,4% 0,02 5,1% 4,7% 1,14 JPY 3,6% 0,21 -8,77 IDR 1,55 -0,84 PHP 1,89 % ZAR BRL TRY IDR THB PHP INR MYR -25,0 -20,0 -15,0 -10,0 -5,0 0,0 5,0 32 Source: Bank Indonesia
Ample le Line nes of De Defense nse Against nst Ext xtern ernal al Shocks ks Ampl ple e Reserv erves es Ample level of FX reserves to buffer against external shock FX Reserve FX Reserves as of February 2020: US$130.4 billion Swap p Arra range gemen ent Renewed a 3 year USD22.76 billion swap line with Japan on October 14 th , 2018 Japan The facility is available in USD and JPY South Korea rea Renewed a 3 year KRW / IDR swap arrangement with the size of up to KRW 10.7 trillion / IDR 115 trillion in March 2017 ateral eral Australia ralia Renewed a 3 year A$/IDR swap arrangement of up to A$10 billion or IDR 100 trillion in August 2018 Bilat Singap gapore ore Renewed a one year SGD/IDR swap arrangement with a size up to USD10 billion (equivalent) in November 2019 Renewed a 3 year swap arrangement and increased the size of swap line up to CNY 200 bn / USD 30 billion in China November 2018 Malaysia ia Established a 3 year RM/IDR swap arrangement with a size up to USD2 billion (equivalent) in September 2019 Entitled to a maximum swap amount of USD600 million under ASA ASEAN Swap p The first MoU on the ASA was signed in 1977 among 5 ASEAN Central Banks with total facility USD100 million Arrangemen ngement (ASA) Doubled to USD2 billion in 2005 al ional Region Entitled to a maximum swap amount of US$ 22.76 bn under the ASEAN+3 (Japan, China, and Korea) FX reserves pool created under the Chiang ng Mai i Initiativ iative e agreement Mult ltilater ilaterali liza zation ion Came into effect in 2010 with a pool of US$120 bn (CMIM IM) ) Agreeme eement nt Doubled to US$240 bn effective July 2014 IMF Global al Financ ancial ial Indonesia is entitled to access IMF facilities for crisis prevention to address potential (actual) BOP problem al Global Safety ety Net t - GSFN Such facilities include Flexible Credit Line (FCL) and Precautionary and Liquidity Line (PLL) Source: Bank Indonesia 33
Solid lid Polic licy y Coordination dination In Managing ging Financi ncial al Markets ts Volat atility ility The e enact ctmen ment of Law No. 9/2016 regarding g Prev even ention and Mitiga gation of Financi cial l Syst stem em Crise ses as a legal foundation Gov’t Securities Crisis is Managem agemen ent t Protoc ocol ol (CMP) for the government to serves at the time of financial crisis in Indicato tors rs: the form of Financi cial l Syst stem em Stabil bility Commi mmittee ee (KSSK SK) - Yield of benchmark series; - Exchange rate; - Jakarta Composite Index; - Foreign ownership in government securities KSSK K member mbers: the Ministry of Finance, Bank Indonesia, the Policie licies s to address the crisis at every level : Financial Services Authority, and the Deposit Insurance - Repurchase the government securities at secondary market Corporation - Postpone or stop the issuance Bond Stabil iliz izati ation on Framew ewor ork Swap facility arrangements based on international cooperation Firs rst t Line of Defense Buyback fund at DG of Budget Financing and Risk Management State’s Budget Investment fund at Public Service Agency Enhancing coordination between government institutions (BLU) (min. level Aware) and continuous dialogue with market participants State te Owned ed Enterp terprises ises Related SOEs (min. level Aware) (BUMN)’s Budget Social cial Secu curit ity y Orga ganizin izing g BPJS (min. level Aware) Agency (BPJS)’s Budget CMP Implementing Crisis Management Protocol (CMP) Second Line of Defense State General Treasury Account (Rekening KUN) (min. level Alert) State’s Budget Accumulated cash surplus (SAL) (min. Level Crisis) BSF Implementing Bond Stabilization Framework (BSF) Source: Ministry of Finance 34
Stren rengt gthen ened d Priv ivat ate e Ext xter ernal al Debt t Risk sk Managem ement nt Encou coura ragi ging Corpora porates tes Compli pliance ce on Hedgi ging Ratio tio & Liquid quidity ity Ratio tio Debt Burden n Indic icat ator (Externa nal l Debt/GDP) Remains ains Compar arab able le to Peers Rating ing Hedgin ging Ratio io* Extern ernal Debt ebt/GDP (%) 2020F 54,3 159 ; Bulgaria 56,5 261 ; 2019F 6% 57,3 10% 42,3 2018 Colombia 42,9 39,9 21,4 India 20,9 20,0 > 3 - 6 6 months nths ≤ 3 months 37,0 Indonesia 36,7 36,2 2.341 ; 2.443 ; 21,9 90% Philippines 23,0 94% 23,9 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Source: Moody’s Statistical Handbook, November 2019 Liquid uidit ity Ratio io* Regulat ulation n on Prudentia ential l Principle le in Manag aging ing External nal Debt 308 ; Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 12% Regu gulati tion on Key Points ints Jan 1,2015 2015 – Jan 1,2016 2016 – Jan 1, 2017 17 & & Dec 31,20 2015 15 Dec 31,20 2016 16 beyond Object ect of Regul egulation on Governs all Foreign Currency Debt Hedgi dging g Ratio < 3 months 20%* 25%** > 3 – 6 months 20%* 25%** 2.294 ; 88% Liqu quidity y Ratio (< 3 months) 50% 70% Credi edit Rating Not applicable Minimum rating of BB- Comply Not Comply Must be done Hedgi dging g transaction on to meet eet not necessarily be done with a bank in with a bank in hedge ge ratio Indonesia Indonesia *Data as of Q3 2019, with total population 2.602 corporates Sanction on As of Q IV-2015 Applied Source: Bank Indonesia Source: Bank Indonesia 35
Health althy Ext xternal ernal Debt t Composition osition Extern ernal l Debt bt Structure cture The e Structure cture of Extern ernal l Debt bt is Dom omin inated ted by Long-Term erm Debt bt Private External Debt Public External Debt Share Share Short Term External Debt Long Term External Debt 100% 100% 90% 90% 80% 80% 44,2 46,4 45,9 49,5 49,6 49,2 50,0 51,2 50,2 50,0 50,2 50,6 52,6 70% 57,4 58,6 70% 78,8 79,3 78,3 78,8 60% 79,8 81,7 82,1 60% 82,9 84,4 84,0 83,8 84,2 84,3 85,9 85,4 50% 50% 40% 40% 30% 30% 55,8 54,1 53,6 50,8 50,0 50,5 50,4 49,8 50,0 49,8 49,4 48,8 47,4 42,6 20% 20% 41,4 21,2 20,7 21,7 21,2 10% 20,2 10% 18,3 17,9 17,1 16,0 16,2 15,6 15,8 15,7 14,6 14,1 0% 0% Extern ernal l Debt bt Remains ins Managea geable le Extern ernal l Debt bt to GDP DP Ratio tio & Debt bt to Export rt Ratio tio Million USD % % External Debt / Export Ratio External Debt / GDP Ratio (rhs) % 450.000 20,0 External Debt External Debt Growth (rhs) 200 36,8 40 36,6 17,1 36,1 36,0 36,2 36,1 18,0 34,7 400.000 34,3 32,9 31,8 35 16,0 180 350.000 29,1 183,7 27,4 26,5 30 14,0 168,7 172,4 177,4 12,0 176,1 300.000 25,0 11,5 11,3 160 168,4 168,0 10,4 12,0 10,2 25 10,1 10,1 250.000 160,8 10,0 8,2 140 20 7,7 200.000 6,5 8,0 139,5 5,9 5,4 15 150.000 120 6,0 123,1 121,8 10 3,0 100.000 4,0 114,9 113,8 100 50.000 5 2,0 101,0 0 0,0 80 0 *Provisional Figures Source: Bank Indonesia, External Debt Statistics of Indonesia, March 2020 36
Managea geable ble Ext xtern ernal al Debt t Profile ile Shor ort term non-ban ank corp rpor orat ate e debt (non on affiliation) ) represe sents only ly 8.6% 6% of tot otal private externa nal l debt Public lic Long g Term 1 Privat ate Bank nk Af Affiliati tion on US$207.8bn US$154.3bn US$19.2bn or or or 50.6% 76% 9.4% US$12.1bn of Total Ext. of Private Ext. of Private or or Debt Debt Ext. Debt 6% 6% External nal Debt of Private e Positio ion Ext. Debt US$2 $203 03.0b 0bn US$48.8bn US$29 29.6bn or or or 49 49.4% US$410.8bn bn 24% 24% 14.6% 6% of total of Private of Private Ext. Debt Ext. Debt Ext. Debt Privat ate Non-Ba Bank nk US$17.5bn Short-Term 1 or or 8.6% Privat ate of Private e Ext. Debt External Debt Position as of December 2019 1 Based on remaining maturity Non Af Affiliati tion on Source ce: External Debt Statistics of Indonesia, March 2020 37
Sect Se ction ion 4 Fiscal Per Fi erforma ormance nce and F d Flexib ibil ilit ity: More e Fi Fiscal al Stim imulus ulus wit ith Pr Prud uden ent t Fi Fiscal al Policy icy
Integrat egrated ed Refor orm m to Provide ide Higher her Qualit lity y of Economi omic Growth wth Structura ructural reforms rms to enhanc nce pot otenti ential growth th and navigat ate through ugh challeng nges es Streng ngthe heni ning ng Polic icy Mix to Enhanc ance Econom omic ic Stabil ilit ity Fisc iscal Polic icy Struc uctural Reform orm Policy icy Amid id Glo lobal Volat atil ilit ity Issuance of 16 economic policy packages to maintain Maintaining prudent fiscal policy Successful execution of the Tax Amnesty Program purchasing power and to drive investment improving tax compliance and widening tax base Strengthening tax incentives scheme, including Tax Holiday Enhancement of competitiveness and productivity by Strengthening export proceeds scheme Implementation of Automatic Exchange of accelerating infrastructure development, improving Information investment climate, raising human capital quality and encouraging industrialization 0% VAT on service exports to encourage Indonesian service exports Encouraging the development of potential productive sectors FI FISCAL AL such as tourism and the digital industry. Deduction in tax for vocational training and research and development activities Introduction of Omnibus bill, revision on tax allowance Commit itment ent to Infr fras astruc uctur ure and Indonesia Special Economic Zone laws to STRENGTHENING encourage investment, job creation and small business empowerment Establishment of a PPP Unit POLICYMI MIX Non-tax policies aim to improve regulations, create fair Active support for PPP (Viability Gap Fund, Project RE REAL and flexible tariff arrangements, strengthening Development Facility, Guarantees, Infrastructure Financing MON ONETARY RY supervision and inspection, optimizing management of SE SECTOR OR Fund, Availability Payment) state assets and improving services and quality of Establishment of special State Asset Management Agency public services (LMAN) to expedite land acquisition process Ease investment licensing Monetary policy to support Mon onetary y Policy licy Increase threshold of foreign macroeconomic stability share ownership across a broad Price stability and sustainable range of business categories current account deficit Reformulation of the Monetary Policy Operational Framework through: (1) Implementation of BI 7 Day Reverse Repo Rate; (2) Implementation of Reserve Requirement (RR) Averaging; (3) Implementation of Financial Market Deepening Program Negative List of Investment Efficient and credible financial relaxation sector Continue to orient monetary operations towards maintaining adequate liquidity and supporting the transmission of an accommodative policy mix. Infrastructure acceleration Maintain accommodative macroprudential policy to stimulate economic financing with respect to the suboptimal financial cycle, while also adhering to prudential principles. Continue to strengthen payment system policy towards fostering economic growth through the expansion of QRIS (Quick Response Code Indonesian Standard) acceptance and electronification of social aid program (bansos) disbursements and local government financial transactions. Source: Ministry of Finance 39
Cred edible ible and Healthi althier er Budge get …providing more certainty to all stakeholders Indon ones esia ia 2045: Bec ecomin oming g a Devel eloped oped Countr ntry Macr croe oeco conomi omic c Assu sumpti mption on for 2018, 8, 2019, 19, and 2020 20 Budget et 2036 2036-2045 2045 2018 2018 2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 ADVANCE CED Indicator Sovereign, Advanced, Just, and Prosperous Country Budge get Budge get Outloo ook Budge get INDONESIA Econom onomic grow rowth (%, yoy ) 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.3 2031 2031-2035 2035 Inflation on (%, yoy ) 3.5 3.5 3.1 3.1 TRANSITION Strengthening Competitiveness 3-Mont onth Trea easu sury ry Bill (SPN) N) (%) 5.2 5.3 5.6 5.4 Excha hange Rate e (Avera verage ge, IDR/USD) 13,400 15,000 14,250 14,400 ICP (USD SD/ba barr rrel) 48 70 63 63 2020 2020-2030 2030 STRENGTHENING THE Oil Oil Prod oduction on (thou ousand barr rrel el/day) 800 775 754 755 Improving Competitiveness FUNDAMENTAL Gas Produ duction on (millions ons barre rel/da day) 1.20 1.25 1.07 1.19 2019* 19* 2020 20 Fiscal Competitiveness Theme 2020 2018 2018 % % % “ State Budget to Accelerate Competitiveness Desc scri ription on (IDR R Trillion) on) Audited Realization on Realization on Budge get Realization on Budge get Realization on Realization on (a.o. o. Dec 31) (a.o. o. Feb b 29) through Innovation and Strengthening Quality of to Budge get to Budge get Human Resources ” A. A. Revenu nues and Grants ts 2,165.1 .1 1,957.2 .2 90.4 2,233.2 .2 216.6 9.7 1,943.7 .7 I. Domestic Revenue 2,164.7 1,950.4 90.1 2,232.7 216.6 9.7 1,928.1 1. Tax Revenue 1,786.4 1,545.3 86.5 1,865.7 178.0 9.5 FISCA CAL POLIC LICY STRA RATEG EGY FOR R 2020 1,518.8 2. Non Tax Revenue 378.3 405.0 107.1 367.0 38.6 10.5 409.3 II. Grants 0.4 6.8 1,560.7 0.5 0.0 5.7 15.6 B. Expend nditur ture 2,461.1 .1 2,310.2 .2 93.9 2,540.4 .4 279.4 11.0 2,213.1 .1 I. Central Government Expenditure 1,634.3 1,498.9 91.7 1,683.5 161.7 9.6 1,455.3 1. Ministerial Spending 855.4 876.4 102.4 909.6 83.9 9.2 846.5 Reven enue e Mobi bili liza zation tion 2. Non Ministerial Spending 778.9 622.6 79.9 773.9 77.9 10.1 608.8 II. Transfer to Region and Village Fund 826.8 811.3 98.1 856.9 117.7 13.7 757.8 Effec ective tive sta tate te spen ending ing C. C. Primary Balance -20.1 -77.5 385.3 -12.0 -28.5 237.4 -11.5 D. Surplus us (Deficit) t) -296.0 .0 -353.0 .0 -307.2 .2 -62.8 20.4 -269.4 .4 % of GDP -1.84 -2.20 -1.76 -0.37 -1.81 Crea eativ tive e financing ing E. Fina nanc ncing 305.7 296.0 399.5 134.9 307.2 112.9 36.8 *Preliminary Source: Ministry of Finance 40
New and Strat rategic egic Programs ograms The polici cies s and ini niti tiativ atives es in State Budget t 2020 0 for Imp mprovem ement ent in human n resour urce qu quality y and comp mpeti etiti tiveness. ness. Kuliah Tax Incen centive tives s for supportin pporting g human reso sources rces Improv provem emen ent t In Human Reso source rce Quality ity and Socia cial l Accelera celerate ted completi letion on of 4 super per priority iority tourism rism develop elopmen ent t & compe petit titive ivenes ess Assist sistance ce destina stination tions Indon ones esian Smart rt Card rd Coll llege/ ege/KIP KIP Kulia iah • Super deduction for vocational program and R&D The development of Danau Toba, Borobudur, Supporting the poor people to achieve the higher • Mini tax holiday for investment commitment under Labuan Bajo and Mandalika, synergy among line education level 500 billion rupiah ministries and local government Pre Workers rkers Card rd • Investment allowance for human intensive industry Improving the job seekers’ productivity Food od Aid Card Protecting the food access for poors Stren engt gthening ing The e Transfer er to Regi gion ons s and Stren engt gthening ing The e Curren rent t Accou count t Balance ce Endowm owmen ent Fund for Human Resou ource rce and Cult lture re Vill llage ge Funds • Strengthening The Physical Specific Allocation Supporting the reducing current account deficit in The Utilization of endowment fund investment to improve Fund for social and marine transportation the the quality of higher education and promotion of the short and long term sectors; national culture, through: • Additional General Allocation Fund DAU for equalization village officials’ fixed income and Culture Endowment Fund remuneration of Government Employees with Higher Education Endowment Fund Work Agreements (PPPK) Significant additional endowment fund for research and development Source: Ministry of Finance 41
In 2020, Budget t Deficit it will l be Maintai taine ned at level l 1. 1.76% GDP Dire rect cted d to be h healthie thier r and adapti tive e to fa face the economic mic risks sks 0,0 0,00 • Deficit to GDP ratio in 2020 will be the lower (11,5) (12,0) (50,0) (34,7) deficit in the past five years (0,50) Primary balance deficit will be decreased • (100,0) (1,00) gradually to positive direction (125,6) (124,4) (150,0) (142,5) • Tax revenue for supporting the (200,0) (1,50) competitiveness with the realistic and (1,76) (1,82) (1,93) optimal target (250,0) (2,00) • Budget spending will be prioritized for (269,4) (300,0) (298,5) (308,3) (341,0) productive spending (307,2) (310,8) (2,50) (350,0) (2,49) (2,51) • Budget financing will be decreased and will (2,59) be utilized for competitiveness improvements (400,0) (3,00) 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Outlook 2020 Budget Budget Deficit (Trillion IDR) Primary Balance % Deficit to GDP 11,6 11.6 11,4 11,1 10,8 10,7 TAX RATIO IO 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Outlook 2020 Budget Source: Ministry of Finance 42
Stat ate e Revenue ue Optim imization ization Followed d by t tax reforms orms for suppo pporti ting ng the economy and business ss climat ate. Tax Revenue e (Trill illio ion Rupiah) iah) Impr mproveme ment t to Suppor ort t Taxation tion 1.865,7 2.000 1.861,8 • Increasing the tax compliance 1.800 1.643,1 1.518,8 • Service quality improvement, counseling, and 1.600 1.343,5 supervision through the strengthen IT system and tax 1.285,0 1.400 1.240,4 14,8 and administration 1.200 13,4 10,5 1.000 • Equalizing the level playing field 12,6 13,0 13,5 8,2 8,2 800 • Improving the business process especially for VAT 5,8 600 refund 4,6 3,6 400 • Implementing the AEoI 200 • Extensification of excise goods 2,9 - • Adjusting the excise duty rates on tobacco 2020 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2020 2020 Budget Outlook RAPBN APBN Budget Plan PPh Migas Pajak nonmigas Oil & Gas Non Oil & Gas Tax Kepabeanan dan Cukai Pertumbuhan Penerimaan Perpajakan (%) Tax Revenue Growth (%) Custom & Excises Non Tax Revenue e (Tril illio lion IDR) Pertumbuhan Pajak nonmigas (%) Non Oil & Gas Tax Revenue Growth (%) 450,0 40,0 409,3 31,5 386,3 400,0 30,0 The e role le of the non-oi oil l and d gas s PNBP sector or 370,0 359,3 311,2 350,0 20,0 continu inues es to be stren engthen hened ed accom ompan anie ied d by 18,8 300,0 increa eased sed servi vices s to the commu ommunity ity 262,0 10,0 255,6 250,0 - 2,5 200,0 • Management and Utilization of Optimal, Effective (5,6) (10,0) (5,0) (7,0) and Efficient Natural Resources 150,0 (20,0) • Service Improvement and Tariff Adjustment 100,0 • Improvement of BUMN Efficiency and BLU (30,0) 50,0 (35,9) Performance - (40,0) 2020 2020 • Improving Governance 2015 2016 2017 2018 Outlook RAPBN 2020 APBN 2020 Budget Budget 2019 Plan PNBP Migas (Triliun Rp) Oil & Gas (Trillion Rp) PNBP Nonmigas (Triliun Rp) Pertumbuhan (%) Growth (%) Non Oil & Gas(Trillion Rp) Source: Ministry of Finance 43
Govern ernment ment expen endit diture ure in 2020 A bet better r spending nding to suppor pporti ting ng developme pment nt to be e effici cient nt and effecti ctive. e. Source: Ministry of Finance 44
Centr tral al Governm rnment nt Expe penditure nditure Dire rect cted d to suppo pport Human n Capita tal impr mproveme ment nt and severa eral strat rategi gic program rams Human an Resou source Quality ity Impr mproveme ment Smart Indone onesian ian Card (KIP IP) for Higher er Ecuat ation ion Supporting the poors to continue their education to higher education Pre-Em Emplo loymen ent t Card To Improve the productivity of job seekers • Sustainab inabilit ility of healt lth h servic vice e provis ision ion (increased premium aid by Government) Soc ocial ial Prot otection tion Stren engthen henin ing • Food d acces ess improvem emen ent (Food Card) Infrastructu astructure Developm lopment • Equalizing inter-region development • Accelerating development of 4 destination of super-priority tourism Source: Ministry of Finance 45
Budge get t for Improving ving the Human man Resour source e Qualit lity Highe her r qu quality of human an resour ources es for achievi ving ng the welfare fare and just t society ety. • National ional Educat cation on Development elopment • Cultu ture re Endowmen wment t Fund (DPPN) PN) Rp1, 1,0 0 T Rp18, 18,0 T • Ensure the continuity of culture scholarships for 5.000 new students (higher promotion for the next generation degree level) scholarships for 12.333 students (higher degree level) Financing 104 researches Investment estment Financing ancing Rp29,0 Rp 29,0 T • Higher Hi r Educati tion on • Resea earch ch Endowm wment nt Fund Endowment wment Fund d Rp5,0 0 T • Rp5,0 0 T Increasing the human resource quality and competitiveness Human resources and education Increasing the research which supported infrastructure for achieving the World the university stakeholders Class University Incresing the research contribution to economic growth Source: Ministry of Finance 46
The Nation ional al Budge get t is to Prep epar are the Younger ger Generation ration to Improve the e Quality lity of of Human man Resour sources es Ed Educ ucati tion on Bud udge get Rp5 p508, 08,1 1 T Source: Ministry of Finance 47
The Nation ional al Budge get t is Prepari paring ng the Youth th throu ough gh Job Training ining Definit inition ion of Pre-Emplo ployme ment nt Card Total al Bud udget get “It is a card given to job seekers or workers to get vocational training (skilling illing and Rp1 p10 0 T re re-skilling) killing) and / or job competency certification" Target get Design gn of Imp mpleme ment ntati tion n of Digita gital and 2 Bil illio ion Regular ar Ac Access pa partic icip ipan ants ts Regular lar Digita ital Training + Certification + Training + Digital: 1.5 Mill Regular: 0.5 Mill Incentives Incentives Skilli lling ng • Training and • Participants Targets : Fresh graduate job seekers Certification in choose the type of Objectives : skill adjustment, vocational skill to work Government Job training through a Outcome : reduce unemployment training Center (LPK) digital platform (including Vocational (GoJek, Tokopedia, Re-Sk Re Skill illin ing Center/BLK), Private Jobstreet etc.). LPK, and Industrial Targets : Workers who are laid off or potentially laid off • Private training * Taining Center Objective : to equip new/different vocational skills for new profession/entrepreneur Online ( e-learning ) and Outcome : prevent unemployment from returning Offline training (class) Offline (Class) Source: Ministry of Finance 48
Infrast rastructure cture Budget To build d infrastructur nfrastructure and remot ote areas Investme stment nt for accelera rati ting ng infr frast structure ructure developme pment nt (SOE and PSA): • PT HK Rp 3.5 T for building toll road Pekanbaru- Dumai and Terbanggi Besar- Pematang Total Budg dget et Panggang – Kayu Agung • PT PLN Rp 5.0 T for fulfilling electrification target 100 % by 2020 Rp4 p423,3 23,3 T • PT SMF Rp 2.5 T to support financing for building house for low income society PSA LMAN Rp 10.5 T for land clearing to support national strategic project • • PPPDP Rp 9.0 T for financing credit housing FLPP Clean an Water er &Sani nita tation ions 49 49 18, 18,758 km • Development of drinking water pipelines Bridges ges Dams • Development of domestic wastewater treatment systems Provision of infrastructure for processing waste • 3 19,879 ha 6,346 km Airp rpor orts ts Irrigati gations ons Roads Interne rnet t Housi using ng for r Low w Incom come 238.8 km Connec ecti tivit vity Soci ciety ty Develop elopmen ent t Railr lroads oads (Palap lapa a Ring) Source: Ministry of Finance 49
Subsid sidy y is Direct ected ed to Improve e Effectivi ctivity ty and Effic iciency iency throu ough gh Attem empts pts in n Accur uracy cy Improvemen ement Budget 2020 Outlook 2019 En Energy rgy Sub ubsi sidy dy 125.3 T 142.6 T Polic icy : Continuing fix subsidy for diesel of Rp1.000/litre Price differential subsidy for kerosene and LPG 3 kg canister Electricity subsidy is given to certain in tariff groups. Electricity subsidy is given accurately for household customer of 450 VA and 900 VA Improving electricity ratio and reducing inter-regions disparity Non on En Energy rgy Budget 2020 Outlook 2019 Sub ubsi sidy dy 69.8 T 62.3 T Polic icy : • Expanding capit ital al acces ess of Micro, , Small, ll, Mediu ium • Data validation of beneficiaries and their needs of subsidized Enterp rpris rises es through interest subsidy of KUR fertilizer e-RDKK (Definitive Plan of Group Needs) • Allocating down payment and interest differential • Expanding the use of Farmer Card to buy subsidized fertilizer subsidy to encourage house ownership of low income • Improving public service in transportation and public information people Source: Ministry of Finance 50
Transf ansfer er to Region ion and Village lage Fund Rp8 p856.9 56.9 T Increased by Rp42.5 triliun from the Outlook 2019 that is directed to: Acceler Ac leratin ating Promo omotin ting productiv oductive Impr mprovin ing basic ic public ic com ompetit titiv ivenes ess spendin ding servic ice e deliv liver ery • Accelerate the provision of public infrastructure and strengthen the quality of human resources, especially through education, health, drinking water, social protection, and inter- regional connectivity. • Increase competitiveness through innovation, ease of doing business, governance, and incentive policies that support the investment climate. • Increase productivity, especially export- oriented through the development of regional economic potential. Source: Ministry of Finance 51
Debt t Financi ncing ng Polic licy y 2020 2020 Debt fina nanci ncing ng that t is productiv ductive, e, effici cient nt, fulfills prude udent ntial al aspects cts and suppor pported d by good governance nance and risk sk management nt syst stems. s. Debt Fina nanci ncing ng Strat ategy gy Debt bt Financing ncing Dire recti tion on Pruden dent • Optimizing community participation in the • debt ratio control within the safe limit ranges from domestic bond market (financial deepening) 29.4 - 30.1 percent of GDP to support fiscal • Active debt management through liability and sustainability asset management. • Main intainin taining macro o bala lance e by maintain intainin ing the composition of domestic and foreign debt in a controlled limit and deepening the financial markets Source: Ministry of Finance 52
Indonesia’s Tax Amnesty Program – A Suc uccess ess Stor ory With th more than 965, 965,900 00 taxpayers parti tici cipati pating ng in the progra gram Tax Amnesty sty Result lt (as s of the e end of March rch 31 st st , , 2017) Repatriation Preliminary Evidence 3% Payment SMEs 1% 2% Tax Arrears Companies Offshore Payment 147,1 12% 1,7 Declaration 14% 85,59 59 21% 18,8 594,99 1,036 36 Individual SMEs 18% 861,81 3.323, 23,36 36 Onshore 3,698 98 114,2 Declaration Individuals 76% Redemption 68% Money 85% Asset Declared Reven venue Com omposi osition on of Participants s IDR 4,881tn (~39.4% of GDP) IDR R 134.8tn (~1.1% GDP) Based ed on Asset et Declared red Redemption tion Money Asse sets ts Decla eclared red 39,3 1,10 % of GDP % of GDP 0,62 0,58 8,3 0,20 5,2 0,17 0,15 3,9 0,12 3,6 2,1 0,04 0,04 0,3 Germany Belgium Italy Chile Indonesia India South Spain Australia India Spain Chile Indonesia Italy South Australia (2004) (2004) (2009) (2015) (2016) (1997) Africa (2012) (2014) (1997) (2012) (2015) (2016) (2009) Africa (2014) (2003) (2003) Source: Ministry of Finance 53
2020 Finan ancin cing g Needs Fulfilled d from m Government nment Securi urities es IDR 690.5 .51 1 tn tn (93.10%) 0%) and Loan IDR51.32 1.32 tn tn (6.90%) 0%) GS Loan Investment Other Lending Liability Financing Financing Financi ancing Sources es IDR301.19T IDR88.79T IDR0.59 T (IDR5.19 T) IDR74.23T (IDR25.0T) 77.23% 22.77% IDR7 R741.84 .84T Budget Non-Debt Financing(nett) Matured Debt Foreign Denominated Debt Domestic Debt Deficit IDR44.62T IDR389.98T IDR307.22T 22.05% 77.95% Foreign Financi ancing need ed Foreign Loan Denominated Domestic Loan Domestic GS IDR7 R741.84 .84T Bonds Gross ss GS (Through auction & Debt to GDP Ratio non-auction) 2019 Matured Realization Projection T-Bills Issuance GDS GDS Sukuk uk 2019 2020 70 – 75% 70 75% 25 25 – 30% 30% 29.7% 29.9%* Note: *preliminary result Source: Ministry of Finance 54
Govern ernment ment Securi riti ties es Indi dicati ative Fina nanci ncing ng Plan for 2020 • Auction: • Conventional Securities – 24x • Islamic Securities – 24x • Non-auction: • Retail GDS (tradable/ORI & non-tradable), Retail Sovereign Sukuk (tradable/Sukri & non-tradable); • Private Placement – based on request. Auction GS Rupiah piah [76% – 80%] Domestic [82% - 86%] Non-auction Governme ernment t [6% - 8%] Issuance Secu curities rities Composition Forei eign gn Deno nomina minated ed GS GS International [14% - 18%] *in IDR Trillion • Foreign denominated GS as co comple plementary ry Avo Avoid id crowding ing out out in domestic market. • Th The targ rget et amo moun unt can be be adjusted justed to the potential of other financing sources and financing needs. Source: Ministry of Finance 55
Government ernment Secur curit itie ies Finan anci cing g Realiz ealizat ation ion As of Januar ary 31, 1, 2020 0 – in Million on IDR (Million IDR) Realization (ao. Feb 28,2020) Government Securities (GS) 154,271,076 20.97% Government Debt Securities (GDS) 124,271,076 22.86% IDR Denominated GDS 81,755,246 -Coupon GDS 67,500,000 -Conventional T-Bills 12,000,000 -Private Placement - -Retail Bonds 2,255,246 Foreign Denominated Bonds 42,515,830 - SEC USD-EUR REG SHELF TAKE-DOWN* 42,515,830 - Samurai Bond - - SEC EURO REG SHELF - -USD Onshore Bonds - Sovereign Sharia Securities (Sukuk) 30,000,000 15.64% Domestic Sovereign Sharia Securities 30,000,000 IFR/PBS/T-Bills Sukuk (Islamic Fixed Rate Bond/Project Based Sukuk) 30,000,000 Retail Sukuk - Private Placement - Global Sukuk - *Dual-currency bonds issuance using SEC format amounted USD2 bn and EUR1 bn, settlement on January 14, 2020 (BI mid day exchange rate; 1 USD = 13,654 IDR & 1 EUR = 15,207.83 IDR) Source: Ministry of Finance 56
Disciplin ciplined ed and Sophistic histicat ated ed Debt t Portf tfolio olio Managemen gement Stabl ble Debt bt to GDP DP Ratio tio Over er the e Years rs Pruden ent t Fisc scal l Defic icit it IDR Tn Government Debt / GDP (%) 442 442 500 0,0% 407 407 35,0% 362 362 30,8% 358 358 30,2% 29,8% 400 29,4% 5.000,0 28,3% -0,5% 265 265 27,4% 30,0% 300 764,5 810,7 24,7% 200 -1,0% 4.000,0 746,2 25,0% 100 19 19 14 14 734,8 -1,5% - 755,1 20,0% 3.000,0 (7) (9) (4) (20) 677,6 (100) -2,0% (66) (69) (58) (56) -1,8% 15,0% 714,4 (200) 4.151,30 -2,2% 2.000,0 4.014,8 -2,5% (227) 3.612,7 (300) 3.248,6 10,0% (298) (269) (308) -2,5% 2.780,6 -2,6% -2,5% (341) (400) -3,0% 2.410,0 1.000,0 1.931,2 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 5,0% Bonds (Net) Loans (Net) SBN (neto) Pinjaman DN & LN (neto) - 0,0% Non Debt (Net) Budget Surplus/Deficit Non Utang (neto) Surplus (Defisit) APBN 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Feb-2020 *) Fiscal Deficit (%GDP, RHS) Rasio Defisit APBN thd. PDB (RHS) Bond Loan Debt/GDP Ratio [RHS] Source: Ministry of Finance Source: Ministry of Finance Weig ighted ted Avera erage ge Debt bt Maturity turity of ~8. 8.5 Years rs Well ll Divers ersif ified ied Acros ross Differen erent t Curren rencie cies % of Yearl rly y Issuance 9,8 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 100% 5% 5% 5% 6% 6% 7% 4% 4% 4% 5% 9,4 4% 4% ATM (in years) 80% 9,1 27% 27% 27% 30% 30% 31% 8,7 60% 8,5 8,5 8,4 40% 62% 62% 61% 59% 57% 58% 20% 0% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Feb-20 2016 2017 2018 2019 Jan' 20 Feb-20 IDR USD EUR JPY OTHER Source: Ministry of Finance Source: Ministry of Finance Note: *as of endo of December by using GDP assumption (interpolation) 57
Well Bala lanced nced Maturity urity Profile ile Wi With h Strong ng Resilience silience Against nst Ext xtern ernal al Shocks ks Decl clinin ining g Interes erest t Rate te Risks sks Decl clinin ining g Exch change ge Rate te Risks ks Variable rate ratio [%] Refixing [%] FX Debt to GDP ratio (%) FX Debt to total debt ratio (%) 21,0 44,5 20,7 43,4 42,6 19,7 41,3 41,0 19,2 38,5 37,9 17,5 16,1 15,5 14,8 13,7 12,1 10,6 10,6 9,8 9,7 12,2 12,1 12,1 12,3 11,9 11,3 10,7 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Feb-20 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Feb-20 Debt bt Maturity turity Profil ile Upcom coming ing Maturities turities (Next t 5 Yea ears) rs) IDR tn tn 500 in 1 year (%) in 3 year (%) in 5 year (%) 450 400 IDR Denominated (Triliun Rp) Other Currencies (Triliun Rp) 41,0 40,8 40,4 159 39,3 350 153 36,0 34,7 33,9 300 169 133 165 250 83 25,5 25,0 24,3 23,9 22,7 21,4 200 122 121 154 20,1 123 44 17 150 50 282 265 227 10,6 27 23 9,9 213 211 208 32 100 8 8,4 8,1 7,7 7,7 6,5 150 139 141 143 133 3 121 122 34 50 96 94 99 37 26 89 62 2 34 23 30 27 2 55,5 42 30 19 18 35 - 27 26 23 20 29 28 - - - 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Feb-20 Note: using GDP assumption Source: Ministry of Finance 58
Holder lders s of Trada adable ble Centr tral al Governm rnment nt Securities rities More Balance ce Ownership hip In Terms ms of Holders and Tenors Hold lders ers of Tradable Gov’t Domestic Debt Securities Forei eign gn Owners ership ip of Gov’t Domestic Debt Securit ritie ies s by Tenor or 100% 34,3% 34,8% 36,0% 39,8% 37,0% 38,6% 80% 38,2% 37,1% 37,5% 37,7% 38,6% 44,7% 33,4% 34,1% 37,4% 60% 35,6% 36,8% 39,0% 34,4% 39,8% 37,8% 38,55% 38,2% 39,9% 37,5% 37,7% 36,8% 42,0% 40,3% 37,09% 40% 22,5% 20% 22,0% 17,3% 17,8% 18,4% 28,5% 23,9% 23,4% 22,5% 21,1% 20,3% 11,8% 5,1% 5,3% 7,7% 1,9% 6,7% 1,3% 5,0% 4,3% 3,5% 2,1% 3,2% 2,4% 0% Dec- ec-15 Dec- ec-16 Dec- ec-17 Dec- ec-18 Dec- ec-19 Feb-20 Fe Dec 15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 28-Feb-20 Domestic Banks Domestic Non-Banks Foreign Holders 0-1 ≥1 -2 ≥2 -5 ≥5 -10 ≥10 %Foreign Ownership of Total Source: Ministry of Finance 59
Ownership ership of IDR Trada dable ble Centr tral al Governmen rnment t Securitie urities as of Februar ary y 28, 2020 (IDR tn) Descr cripti ption on Dec-15 15 Dec-16 16 Dec-17 17 Dec-18 18 Dec-19 19 Feb -2020 020 Banks* 350. 0.07 07 23.95% 95% 399.46 22.53% 53% 491. 1.61 61 23.41% 41% 481. 1.33 33 20.32% 32% 581. 1.37 7 21.12% 12% 804. 4.41 1 28.47% 47% Govern ernme ment t Insti stitu tuti tion ons (Bank 148. 8.91 91 10.19% 19% 134.25 7.57% 57% 141. 1.83 83 6.75% 75% 253. 3.47 47 10.70% 70% 262. 2.49 49 9.54% 54% 115. 5.13 13 4.07% 07% Indon onesia esia**) **) Bank Indonesia (gross) 157.88 8.90% 179.84 8.56% 217.36 9.18% 273.21 9.93% 350.23 12.39% GS used for Monetary 23.63 1.33% 38.01 1.81% (36.15) (1.52%) 10.72 0.39% 235.10 8.32% Operation Non-Banks 962. 2.86 86 65.87% 87% 1,239. 239.57 57 69.90% 90% 1,466. 466.33 33 69.83% 83% 1,633. 633.65 65 68.98% 98% 1,908. 908.88 88 69.34% 34% 1,906. 906.40 40 67.46% 46% Mutual Funds 61.60 4.21% 85.66 4.83% 104.00 4.95% 118.63 5.01% 130.86 4.75% 130.19 4.61% Insurance Company and 221.45 15.15% 325.52 18.36% 348.86 16.61% 414.47 17.50% 471.67 17.13% 482.50 17.07% Pension Fund Foreign ign Holders 558. 8.52 52 38.21% 21% 665.81 37.55% 55% 836. 6.15 15 39.82% 82% 893. 3.25 25 37.71% 71% 1,061. 061.86 86 38.57% 57% 1,048. 048.16 16 37.09% 09% Foreign Govt's & Central Banks 110.32 7.55% 120.84 6.81% 146. 6.88 8 6.99% 99% 163. 3.76 6 6.91% 91% 194. 4.45 5 7.06% 06% 189. 89.98 98 6.72% 72% Individual 42.53 2.91% 57.75 3.26% 59.84 2.85% 73.07 3.09% 81.17 2.95% 78.65 2.78% Others 78.50 5.37% 104.84 5.91% 117.48 5.60% 134.22 5.67% 163.32 5.93% 166.89 5.91% Tota tal 1,461. 461.85 5 100% 0% 1,77 773. 3.28 28 100% 0% 2,099. 099.77 77 100. 0.00 00% 2,368. 368.45 45 100. 0.00 00% 2,752. 752.74 74 100. 0.00 00% 2,825. 825.93 93 100. 0.00 00% 1) Non Resident consists of Private Bank, Fund/Asset Manager, Securities Company, Insurance Company and Pension Fund. 2) Others such as Securities Company, Corporation, and Foundation. *) Including the Government Securities used in monetary operation with Bank Indonesia. **) net, excluding Government Securities used in monetary operation with Banks. Source: Ministry of Finance 60
Se Sect ction ion 5 Monet etary y and d Fi Financia ial Factor: or: Cred edib ible e Monet etary y Polic icy y Track k Rec ecor ord d an and d Favoura urable ble Financial Sector or
Bank Indonesia’s Policy Mix To Maint ntain in Macroeco oecono nomi mic c and Financi ncial System em Stabil bilit ity Accommodative monetary policy consistent with controlled inflation Implementing Macro prudential in the target corridor, while serving Intermediation Ratio (RIM) as a pre-emptive measure to Implementing Macro prudential Liquidity maintain domestic economic growth Buffer (MLB) momentum 2 1 Stabilize exchange rate consistent with fundamentals Macro- pruden enti tial al Monetar etary Optimize monetary operations in Polic Po icy order to ensure market Polic Po icy Electronification: Social program, e- mechanisms and adequate liquidity payment for Government in the money and foreign exchange Financial technology markets 3 National Payment Gateway (NPG) QRIS (QR Indonesia Standard) Paymen ent Expanding National Clearing System Coordina dinati tion on System em (SKNBI) services with ot other Po Polic icy Controlling inflation: TPIP, TPID Authorit horities ies 4 Structural reforms: Government 5 Developing market instruments for financing Financial deepening & stability: KSSK infrastructure Financ ncia ial l Market et (Financial System Stability Developing financial market infrastructures Committee), OJK (Financial Services Deepening pening Authority) Rupiah Interest Rate Swaps (IRS) and Overnight Index Coordinating efforts in reducing Swap (OIS) Current Account Deficit Domestic non-Deliverable Forward (DNDF) Developing the Commercial Papers (Surat Berharga Komersial) Source: Bank Indonesia 62
Bank k Indones esia ia Polic licy y Mix: : March h 2020 The BI Board rd of Governo rnors s agreed on 18th and 19th March 2020 0 to lower the BI 7-Day y Reverse e Repo o Rate by 25 bps to 4.50%, %, Deposi osit Facility y (DF) ) rates lowere red 25 bps to 3,75% 5% and Lending ng Facili lity y (LF) ) rates lowere red 25 bps to 5,25%. 5%. Continue to strengthen coordination Continue to optimize Monetary policy remains Reinforced its policy by carefully monitoring the Maintain an accommodative Lowers monetary accommodative and is mix towards mitigating dynamics of COVID-19 transmission macroprudential policy stance the BI 7- operations in order consistent with the risk of COVID-19 and its impact on Indonesia over and strengthen coordination Day to ensure market controlled inflation in the transmission, while time, as well as the coordinated with other relevant authorities Reverse mechanisms and target corridor, while maintaining money follow-up policies of the in order to maintain financial Repo adequate liquidity in serving as a pre-emptive market and financial Government, Bank Indonesia and system stability and catalyze Rate by the money and measure to maintain system stability and OJK required to maintain the bank intermediation 25 bps foreign exchange domestic economic catalyzing economic macroeconomic and financial function to 4.5% markets growth momentum. growth momentum system stability, while preserving economic growth momentum 63 Source: Bank Indonesia
Bank k Indones esia ia Polic licy y Mix: : March h 2020 Mitiga igating ting the ri risk of COVID ID-19 tra ransmiss smissio ion To o stren engthen then coor oordinat inatio ion and d the va vario ious s polic icy meas easures s alrea eady dy taken en, , Bank Indones onesia ia on March nd 2020 introduce 2 nd oduced a var arie iety of five e follo low-up polic icy meas easures s to main intain tain monetar tary and d financ ancial ial market t stabili ility as well ll as mitigat igate e the COVID ID-19 risk sks 1) Intensify triple intervention policy to ensure rupiah exchange rates move in line with the currency's fundamental value and market mechanisms. To that end, Bank Indonesia will optimize its intervention strategy in the DNDF market, spot market and SBN market in order to minimize the risk of increasing rupiah exchange rate volatility. 2) Lower the FX reserve requirements for commercial banks from 8% to 4%, effective 16th March 2020, which will increase FX liquidity in the banking industry by around USD3.2 billion and simultaneously alleviate foreign exchange market pressures. 3) Lower the rupiah reserve requirements by 50bps for banks financing export-import activity in coordination with the Government. Effective from 1st April 2020 for a period of nine months before a further review, this policy is expected to facilitate export-import activity through lower costs/fees. 4) Expand the range of underlying transactions available to foreign investors in order to provide alternative hedging instruments against rupiah holdings. 5) Reaffirm that global investors can utilize global and domestic custodian banks to conduct investment activity in Indonesia. 64
Bank k Indones esia ia Polic licy y Mix: : March h 2020 Mitiga igating ting the ri risk of COVID ID-19 tra ransmission smission th and th March 2020 has rein onesia on the Boar ard of Governor nors s Meeti eting g 18 th d 19 th Bank k Indonesia infor orced ed its policy icy mix towar owards ds mitiga gatin ting g the risk sk of COVID ID-19 9 transm smis issi sion on, , while le mainta tain ining ing money y market et and finan ancia ial l syst stem em stabil ility ity and cataly lyzi zing g econom omic ic growth wth momentum tum through gh the follo lowi wing g policy icy measures es: 1) Strengthening the intensity of triple intervention policy to maintain rupiah exchange rate stability in line with the currency's fundamental value and market mechanisms, including the spot and DNDF markets as well as purchasing SBN in the secondary market. 2) Extending the SBN repo tenor to 12 months and providing daily auctions to loosen rupiah liquidity in the banking industry, effective from 20th March 2020. 3) Increasing the frequency of FX swap auctions for 1, 3, 6 and 12-month tenors from three times per week to daily auctions in order to ensure adequate liquidity, effective from 19th March 2020. 4) Strengthening foreign currency term deposit instruments in order to enhance foreign currency liquidity management in the domestic market, while encouraging the banks to utilize the foreign currency reserve requirements lowered by Bank Indonesia for domestic purposes. 5) Expediting the enforcement of domestic vostro rupiah accounts for foreign investors as underlying transactions for Domestic Non-Deliverable Forwards (DNDF), thus increasing hedging alternatives against rupiah holdings in Indonesia, which has been brought forward from 1st April 2020 to no later than 23rd March 2020. 6) Expanding the incentive of a 50bps daily rupiah reserve requirement beyond banks that are engaged in export-import financing to include the financing of MSMEs and other priority sectors, effective from 1st April 2020. 7) Strengthening payment system policy to support COVID-19 mitigation efforts by: • providing hygienic currency fit for circulation, alternative cash and backup services, and urging the public to prioritize non-cash payment transactions; • encouraging the use of non-cash payment channels by reducing the cost of the National Clearing System (SKNBI) from the banking industry to Bank Indonesia from Rp600 to Rp1 and from customers to the banking industry from a maximum of Rp3,500 to Rp2,900, effective from 1st April 2020 until 31st December 2020; and • supporting non-cash disbursements for government programs, such as the Family Hope Program (PKH) and Noncash Food Assistance Program (BPNT), Pre-Employment Card and College Smart Indonesia Card. 65
Pri rinc ncipl iples s of Avera rage Reserv rve Requir irem ement nt Ratios os Impr provement vement Consid iderati erations ons for the Average rage Reserve ve Requir uirem emen ent Ratios ios Effectiv ective e Substance nce Old New Date Improve ovemen ent t a. Additional rupiah 16 th July • Improvement in average reserve requirement is a follow up average reserve Fixed RR: 5% Fixed RR: 4.5% to the monetary policy operational framework reform requirement for Average RR: 1.5% Average RR: 2% 2018 implemented by Bank Indonesia since 2016. conventional RR: 6.5% RR: 6.5% commercial banks • Monetary policy operational framework reform started in August 2016 as BI7DRR replaced BI Rate as policy rate. This 16 th July b. Annulment of was then strengthened in 1st July 2017, by the demand deposit 2.5% (from 1.5% RR) 0% 2018 implementation of the average reserve requirement in renumeration rupiah for conventional commercial banks at 1.5% out of the total 6.5% of GDP reserve requirement in Rupiah. The c. Implementation of reformulation is also backed by various efforts in financial foreign exchange Fixed RR: 8% Fixed RR: 6% market deepening. average reserve 1 st October Average RR: 0% Average RR: 2% requirement for 2018 • The current improvement aims to elevate flexibility in RR: 8% RR: 8%* conventional banking liquidity management, enhance banking commercial banks intermediation function, and support efforts in financial market deepening. This multiple targets will in turn improve d. Implementation of the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission in Fixed RR: 5% Fixed RR: 3% 1 st October average reserve maintaining economic stability. Average RR: 0% Average RR: 2% 2018 requirement for RR: 5% RR: 5%* Islamic banks * Complemented by harmonisation feature to align with the average reserve requirement in rupiah feature for conventional commercial banks (e.g. Calculation period, lag period, and Maintenance period of 2 weeks) Source: Bank Indonesia 66
Princ inciples iples of Macroprud pruden entia tial Interm ermed ediation iation Rati tio o (MIR) R) and Macropruden prudenti tial al Liquid uidity ity Buffer er (MLB) B) Conside ideratio rations ns for r Mac acrop opru rude dential ntial Instru truments ments Mac acropr oprude udentia ntial Interme ermedia diatio tion n Rat atio io (MIR IR) and d Macropr prude udential ntial Liquidit uidity y Buffer er (MLB) B) 1 2 3 4 Striving to stimulate the bank The policy is expected to This The regulation is effective intermediation function and liquidity stimulate the bank macroprudential for conventional management, Bank Indonesia intermediation function to the policy instrument is commercial banks from 16 th July 2018 and for issued Bank Indonesia Regulation real sector congruent with countercyclical and (PBI) No. 20/4/PBI/2018 and Board sectoral capacity and the can be adjusted in sharia banks from 1 st of Governors Regulation (PADG) No. economic growth target in line with prevailing October 2018. 20/11/PADG/2018 concerning the compliance with prudential economic and Macroprudential Intermediation principles, while also overcoming financial dynamics. Ratio (MIR) and Macroprudential the issue of liquidity Liquidity Buffer (MLB) for procyclicality. Conventional Commercial Banks, Sharia Banks and Sharia Business Units. Source: Bank Indonesia 67
Principles inciples of Macroprud pruden ential tial Int nterm ermed ediation iation Ratio tio (MIR)* )* MIR Shar aria ia (Shar aria ia Banks and d Sharia ia Business ess Regulati lation on MIR (Con onventional tional Comm mmercial ial Bank) Units) Un s) 1 MIR Accounting Formula Credit + Owned Bond Financing + Owned Sharia Bond Deposit + Issued Bond Deposit + Issued Sharia Bond 2 Rate and Parameters Ceiling 94% Ceiling 94% Floor 84% Floor 84% Minimum Capital Adequacy Requirement 14% Minimum Capital Adequacy Requirement 14% Upper disincentive parameter 0.2 For Sharia business units, the Minimum Capital Adequacy Requirement is the same as that of the parent Lower disincentive parameter 0.1 conventional commercial bank Upper disincentive parameter 0.2 Lower disincentive parameter 0.1 3 Scope of credit/financing and Credit: rupiah and foreign currency Financing: rupiah and foreign currency deposits to calculate MIR / MIR Deposits in rupiah and a foreign currency: (i) Deposits in rupiah and a foreign currency: (i) wadiah Sharia demand deposits, (ii) savings deposits; and (iii) savings; and (ii) unrestricted investment funds, excluding term deposits, excluding interbank funds interbank funds 4 Source of Data Monthly Commercial Bank Reports Monthly Sharia Bank Reports 5 Criteria for securities held Corporate bonds and/or corporate sukuk Corporate bonds and/or corporate sukuk Issued by a nonbank corporation and by a resident Offered to the public through a public offering Equivalent to investment grade rating affirmed by a rating agency Administrated by an authorised securities institution 68 *As part of further relaxation on macroprudential policy, an adjustment will be applied starting from December 2 nd , 2019
Principles inciples of Macroprud pruden ential tial Int nterm ermed ediation iation Ratio tio (MIR)* )* Regulati lation on MIR (Con onventional tional Comm mmercial ial Bank) MIR Shar aria ia (Shar aria ia Banks and d Sharia ia Business ess Un Units) s) 6 Percentage of the securities 100% held Criteria for securities issued 7 medium-term notes (MTN), floating rate notes (FRN) sharia-compliant medium-term notes (MTN) and/or and/or bonds other than subordinated bonds sukuk other than subordinated sukuk Issued by a nonbank corporation and by a resident Offered to the public through a public offering Equivalent to investment grade rating affirmed by a rating agency Administrated by an authorised securities institution 8 Securities Reporting Offline delivery mechanism (email) 9 Scope of deposits to meet Average daily total deposits in rupiah at all branch Average daily total deposits in rupiah at all branch DD MIR /DD MIR Sharia offices in Indonesia offices and sharia business units in Indonesia Including rupiah liabilities to a resident and non- Including rupiah liabilities to a resident and non- resident third-party nonbank, consisting of: (i) resident third-party nonbank, consisting of: (i) wadiah demand deposits, (ii) savings deposits; (iii) term savings; (ii) unrestricted investment funds, and (iii) deposits, and (iv) other liabilities other liabilities 10 Relaxation of DD Bank Indonesia may relax the provisions of the DD MIR/Sharia DD MIR based on credit/financing disbursement MIR/Sharia DD MIR and fund accumulation The provisions may be relaxed based on a request from a conventional commercial bank, Sharia bank or Sharia business unit or a recommendation from the Financial Services Authority (OJK) Conventional commercial banks, Sharia banks or Sharia business units that receive the relaxed policy are exempt from sanctions 69 *As part of further relaxation on macroprudential policy, an adjustment will be applied starting from December 2 nd , 2019
Adjustment ustment of Macropr prudent udential ial Interme ermediat diatio ion n Ratio io (MIR)/ )/Sharia Sharia Macropru prude dent ntial ial Intermed ermediation ation Ratio io (Sharia aria MIR)* Bank Indonesia strengthens accommodative macroprudential policy through an adjustment to the Macroprudential Intermediation Ratio by including the loan/financing received by banks as a component of funding in MIR/sharia MIR. Polic icy Backgrou kgrounds nds Main Regulatory latory Points ts Including loan received by conventional commercial banks and financing received by Islamic banks and Islamic • In response to global and domestic economic • business units as a source of bank funding in the calculation of MIR/sharia MIR. developments, BI is maintaining an accommodative policy mix to maintain the The criteria for loans/financing received by banks that are eligible to be included in MIR/sharia MIR calculation • economic growth while also maintaining are as follows: macroeconomic and financial system stability. a. Loans/financing received in Rupiah and foreign currency; b. Loans/financing received in the form of bilateral loans and/or syndicated loans for conventional commercial BI relaxed MIR/sharia MIR policy in March • banks, Islamic banks and Islamic business units; 2019, which stimulated bank lending. c. Loans/financing excludes interbank loans/financing. Nevertheless, the macroprudential d. Loans/financing received with a maturity of no less than 1 year; and intermediation ratio (MIR) is again e. Loans/financing received based on a loan agreement. approaching the upper bound, thus necessitating efforts to increase bank lending Based on points a and b, the adjusted MIR/sharia MIR formula is as follows: • capacity. Credit it + Owned Bond Considering the potential of bank funding • Deposit it + Issue ued Bond + Loan/ n/Financ Financing ing Receiv ived ed sources that are not included in the MIR ratio, for example the expanding share of Lower disinc incent ntiv ive param ameter er Upper disinc incent ntiv ive param ameter er loans/financing received by banks, BI decides MIR/sh R/sharia ia MIR MIR RR RR= MIR/sh R/sharia ia MIR MIR RR RR= to adjust MIR/sharia MIR policy in order to Lower Disincentives Parameter x (Lower Bound of MIR/Sharia MIR 0.2 x (Bank’s MIR/sharia MIR - Upper Bound of optimize loans/financing received for bank Target – Bank’s MIR/Sharia MIR) x Deposit MIR/Sharia MIR Target – ) x Deposit lending. This policy to stimulate credit growth will • *This disincentive applies for banks with CAR below 14%. comply with prudential principles. Therefore, BI is only encouraging banks with low non- performing loans and adequate capital resilience to expand credit/financing. The reference rate used to calculate penalties for banks that do not meet MIR/sharia MIR policy will be adjusted • from the Jakarta Interbank Offered Rate (JIBOR) to the Indonesia Overnight Index Average (IndONIA). *This adjustment will be effective from December 2 nd , 2019 70 Source: Bank Indonesia
Principles inciples of Macroprud pruden ential tial Liquidit uidity Buf uffer er (MLB) LB) Regulati lation on MLB (Conventional tional Comm mmercial ial Bank) MLB Shar aria ia (Shar aria ia Banks) 1 Rate 4% of rupiah deposits (including Sharia Business Units 4% of rupiah deposits deposits) 2 Components Securities denominated in rupiah held by a conventional Sharia-complaint securities denominated in rupiah commercial bank that may be used for monetary held by an Sharia bank that may be used for sharia- operations (including SBI/SDBI/SBN); and compliant monetary operations (including SBIS/SBSN) Sharia-complaint securities denominated in rupiah held by an Sharia business unit that may be used for sharia- compliant monetary operations (including SBIS/SBSN) 3 Calculation Formula Percentage of rupiah securities held by a conventional Percentage of sharia-compliant rupiah securities held by commercial bank to rupiah deposits an Sharia bank to rupiah deposits 4 Flexibility Under certain conditions, the securities used to meet the MLB Under certain conditions, the securities used to meet the may be used for repo transactions to Bank Indonesia for open sharia MLB may be used for repo transactions to Bank market operations, totalling no more than 2% of rupiah Indonesia for open market operations, totalling no more deposits than 2% of rupiah deposits 5 Sources of Data on Monthly Commercial Bank Reports Monthly Sharia Bank Reports Deposits Rupiah deposits to calculate MLB are the average daily Rupiah deposits to calculate sharia MLB are the total deposits at all branches in Indonesia average daily total deposits at all branches in Indonesia Rupiah deposits include: (i) demand deposits, (ii) savings deposits; (iii) term deposits, and (iv) other liabilities Rupiah deposits include: (i) wadiah savings; (ii) unrestricted investment funds, and (iii) other liabilities 71
Relaxing ing the Loan-to to-Value alue (LTV) and d Financi nancing-to to-Value alue (FTV) Ratio ios* s* The e LTV/F V/FTV relaxa axation tion is cond nduct ucted while le taking aking into o account ount aspects spects of prude udential ntial and consu nsume mer r protect ectio ion* n* 2. Relaxing the amount of loan/financing facility through indent 1. Increasing opportunities of first time buyers to fulfill their housing needs mechanism to a maximum of 5 facilities without taking account of through housing loan, specifically by adjusting the LTV ratio for property the orders loan and the FTV ratio for property financing for the 1st facility, 2nd facility, etc., making the largest LTV ratio for property credit and FTV 3. Adjusting the arrangement of stages and amount of property ratio for property financing as shown in the table below. loan/financing disbursement of indent property: “ - “= The LTV rate depends on each bank’s risk management *As part of further relaxation on macroprudential policy, an adjustment will be applied starting from December 2 nd , 2019 Source: Bank Indonesia 72
Relaxing ing the Loan-to to-Value alue (LTV) and d Financi nancing-to to-Value alue (FTV) Ratio ios* s* Prude denti ntial aspects cts of Relaxing xing the Loan-to to-Value ue (LTV) and Fina nanci ncing ng-to to-Value ue (FTV) Ratios os 1. The requirements of the LTV ratio for property credit and FTV ratio for property financing are as follows: i. The net ratio of NPL to total credit or NPF to total financing must not exceed 5%; and ii. The gross ratio of property NPL to total property credit or property NPF to total financing must not exceed 5%. 2. Banks must make sure that there is no loan transfer to another borrower at the same bank or different bank for tenors of less than 1 year. The requirements are valid for banks that will disburse pre-order property loan/financing. 3. Banks are required to comply with prudential principles when disbursing loans. 4. Gradual loan liquidation is only allowed for developers that comply with bank’s risk management policy (e.g.the business feasibility of the developer). 5. Banks are required to ensure that transactions to disburse loans (including down payment) and gradual liquidation must be processed through the debitor and developer/seller’s bank account. LTV / F FTV Exempt mptions ons Central government or local government loan / financing programs are exempt from this regulation. Source: Bank Indonesia 73
Adjustment ustment of LTV Ratio for Property ty Loans, ns, FTV Ratio io for Proper erty ty Financ nancing ing, , and Do Down Pa Payments ments on Automot motive Loans/Fin ns/Financ ancing* ing* Bank Indonesia adjusts macroprudential policy in the property and automotive sectors by: (i) relaxing the LTV ratio for property loans and the FTV ratio for property financing; (ii) providing additional incentive on LTV ratio for green property loans and FTV ratio for green property financing; (iii) relaxing down payments on automotive loans/financing; (iv) providing additional incentive on down payments on green automotive loans. Polic icy Backgrou kgrounds nds Main n Regulatory latory Points ts 1. Adjustment of LTV Ratio for Property Loans and FTV Ratio for Property Financing. • In response to global and domestic economic developments, BI is maintaining an accommodative policy a. BI decides to relax the LTV ratio for property loans and FTV ratio for property mix to maintain the economic growth while also financing by 5% from current ratio as follows: maintaining macroeconomic and financial system stability. This effort will be targeted to several potential sectors. • Considering the ongoing needs to stimulate the property and automotive sectors which have a huge backward and forward linkages to other sectors in the economy, BI decides to relax LTV/FTV policy for property loans/financing and down payments on automotive loans in compliance with prudential principles. • Additional incentives are also given to support sustainable development through green financing in order to reduce potential disruptions to financial system stability stemming from environmental degradation. • As a prudential mitigation, those relaxations will be given to borrower with strong repayment capacity and low credit/financing risk. • BI will regularly evaluate this policy at least once a year. *This adjustment will be effective from December 2 nd , 2019 Source: Bank Indonesia 74
Adjustment ustment of LTV Ratio for Property ty Loans, ns, FTV Ratio io for Proper erty ty Financ nancing ing, , and Do Down Pa Payments ments on Automot motive Loans/Fin ns/Financ ancing* ing* Main n Regulatory latory Points ts 2. Additional incentive on the LTV ratio for green property loans and FTV ratio for green property financing. a. The Green Property criteria refers to the standards/certificates issued by a nationally or internationally recognized environmental institution. b. Green property that is granted for the incentive has to meet the following standards: i. For residential areas/buildings in certified green belt areas, each unit in the residential area/building is 3. Adjustment of Down Payments on Automotive Loans/Financing considered to meet the criteria. a. Down Payments on Automotive Loans/Financing is adjusted as ii. In case that the residential area/building is not a certified follows: green belt area, an evaluation will be conducted on each i. Relaxation on the down payments of automotive loans or unit as follows: automotive financing 5%-10% from current regulations; For buildings < 2500m 2 , the bank may conduct a self- assessment using the tools/applications provided by a ii. The relaxation should consider the gross NPL/NPF ratios recognized institution. and gross NPL/NPF ratios on automotive loans/financing; For buildings > 2500m 2 , the assessment must be iii. The adjustment of down payments of automotive conducted by a recognized institution; loans/financing in points a and b is as follows: For new buildings constructed in an area by one developer or group of developers, the assessment must be conducted by a recognized institution and the certificate must be submitted by the developer i. Additional incentive for green property on LTV ratio for property loans and FTV ratio for property financing is 5% from the LTV/FTV ratio presented in Table 2 as follows: *This adjustment will be effective from December 2 nd , 2019 Source: Bank Indonesia 75
Adjustment ustment of LTV Ratio for Property ty Loans, ns, FTV Ratio io for Proper erty ty Financ nancing ing, , and Do Down Pa Payments ments on Automot motive Loans/Fin ns/Financ ancing* ing* Main n Regulatory latory Points ts 4. Adjustment of Down Payments on Green Automotive Loans/Financing a. The green vehicles criteria refers to the Presidential Regulation No. 55 of 2019 concerning Battery Electric Vehicles. b. The down payments on green automotive loans or green automotive financing is adjusted as follows: i. Additional incentive of 5% on green vehicles from the down payment presented in Table 5; ii. The down payment incentives considers the gross NPL/NPF ratios and gross NPL/NPF ratios on automotive loans/financing; iii. The down payment regulation for green automotive loans or green automotive financing in points a and b is as follows: Note: Adjustments of the LTV ratio for property loans, FTV ratio for property financing and down payments on automotive loans or financing will be effective from December 2 nd , 2019 *This adjustment will be effective from December 2 nd , 2019 Source: Bank Indonesia 76
Princ inciples iples of Domest estic ic Non Deliv iver erable ble Forwar ard (DNDF NDF) ) Transa ansaction ction Purposes ses Genera eral Provisi sions ons Domes mestic tic Non-De Deliv liverable ble Forwar ard d Tran ansa saction tion (DNDF Trans ansac actio ion) 1. To support the effort of stabilizing Plain vanilla derivatif transaction of foreign exchange against rupiah in the form of the Rupiah exchange rate through forward transaction with fixing mechanism in the domestic market the additional of alternative hedging instruments Forward Trans ansac actio ions Forward Transactions are sell/purchase foreign currencies againts rupiah whereas the delivery of funds shall be performed in more than 2 days after the transaction date 2. To support the development and deepening of the domestic Fixing Mec echan hanism sm financial market Transaction settlement mechanism without full movement of funds by calculating the difference between rate on the transaction date and reference rate in JISDOR on a 3. To increase the confidence of specified future time agreed in the contract (fixing date) exporters, importers, and investors in conducting economic and Other er Definit initio ions investment activities through the The definition of derivative transaction of foreign exchange againts rupiah, Forward flexibility of hedging transactions Transaction, Spot Transaction, Customers, Foreign Party is referring to Bank Indonesia against Rupiah currency risk regulations regarding foreign exchange transaction againts rupiah Source: Bank Indonesia 77
Princ inciples iples of Domestic estic Non Deliv iver erable ble Forwar ard (DNDF NDF) Transa ansaction ction Bank can perform orm DNDF Transa nsacti ctions ns as follows: ws: 1. Must have Underly lyin ing Transac sactions tions: Tran ansac saction tion bet etween en: Includ cluding ing all foll llow owing ing activ ivit ities ies : a. Trade of goods and services b. Investments, loans, capital, and other investements. c. Banks credit or financing in foreign currencies (specifically for transactions between bank and customers) Can only be performed to Bank – Customer Excludi luding g foll llowi wing g activ ivit ities ies: hedge rupiah a. Bank Indonesia certificates; b. Placement of funds with bank; exchange rate c. Unwithdrawn credit facilities; risk. d. Documents of foreign currencies sales againts rupiah; e. Money transfer by fund transfer companies f. Intercompany loan g. Money changer activities. Bank – Foreign Party 2. Nominal of DNDF Transactions ≤ Nominal of Underlying Transactions 3. Tenor of DNDF Transactions ≤ Tenor of Underlying Transactions Bank – Bank Source: Bank Indonesia 78
Princ inciples iples of Domestic estic Non Deliv iver erable ble Forwar ard (DNDF NDF) Transa ansaction ction Transac nsacti tion on Set ettl tlement ent • Use Fixing mechanism • Reference rate: JISDOR for USD/IDR and BI FX Transaction MidRate for non-USD/IDR • Settlement currency : IDR • Roll over and early termination are not allowed ly termi mina nati tion for DNDF is proh Roll ll over er and d early ohib ibit ited ed However, unwind can be done by opening the reverse DNDF transactions Cover He Hedging ng Bank may conduct DNDF Transactions with Bank Overseas for cover hedging purpose. • Underlying Transactions: DNDF Transaction between Bank and Customer/Foreign Purpose: Hedging • Overseas seas Custom omer er / / Cover Bank Hedging Foreign eign Party ty Bank Hedging Notes: Customer A conduct DNDF transactions with Bank B, and so Bank B can conduct DNDF transactions with overseas Bank for the purpose of cover hedge. Source: Bank Indonesia 79
Amendmen ndment t on DNDF F Regulation ulation *to provide de more flexib ibilit ity in DNDF F transact saction on *to increase rease liquidi idity ty and efficiency iciency in domesti estic c forei reign gn excha hange ge market BI Regulati tion n No. 21/7/PBI BI/20 2019 BI Regula lati tion n No. 20/10/ 0/PBI/20 2018 AMENDMENT Artic icle le 3 Artic icle le 3 1. Sell FX/IDR through DNDF up to $ 5 mio can be done without 1. DNDF transactions must have Underlying underlying documents Artic icle le 6 Artic icle le 6 2. Not Regulated; 2. DNDF can be terminated (unwind); Artic icle le 11 Artic icle le 11 3. Underlying documents for buy FX/IDR for DNDF is : 3. Underlying documents must be final (firm) with additional • Final (firm commitment) + Supporting documents supporting documents 4. Underlying documents for sell FX/IDR for DNDF above threshold $ 5 mio can be: • Final (firm commitment) + Supporting documents • Projection (anticipatory basis) + Supporting documents Artic icle le 11 Artic icle le 11 5. In using estimate underlying transaction documents in the 4. Not Regulated; form of cash flow projection, Bank must evaluate the appropriateness through: a. Supplementary documents; b. Historical data within at least 1 year before; and c. Track record of the Customer or Foreign Party. *Effective on May 17 th , 2019; English version of the regulation is available in BI website. Source: Bank Indonesia 80
Overn rnig ight ht Index x Swaps ps (OIS) IS) & I Interest erest Rate e Swaps ps (IRS RS) As hedg dging ing instr trume ments ts agains ainst t Rupiah ah inter erest est rate te chang anges es IRS is a contract between two parties to IR periodically exchange rupiah interest rate flows 4 during the contract period or at the completion of the contract based on certain notional amount. IRS pricing is based on JIBOR. 3 OIS IS is an interest rate swap agreement based on a daily overnight reference rate (IndoNIA) Improvement of IRS transaction 2 liquidity Alignment between JIBOR Encourage price transparency in the rupiah and OIS interest money market rate OIS transaction 1 Strengthen monetary policy transmission with IndoNIA as Provide alternative hedging instruments benchmark rate against rupiah interest rate changes Support securities market deepening in IndoNIA & JIBOR Indonesia Strengthening reference rate based on real transactions Source: Bank Indonesia 81
OIS and IRS Transa ansactions: ctions: General eral Provisi visions ons Mar arket Pl Player ers. Banks, bank clients, both individual and non-bank institutions, and also foreign parties. Market Conventions Trans ransacti tion on Nee Needs ds Analys nalysis is. A bank performing an IRS or OIS transaction with a customer and/or foreign party on behalf of the customer and/or foreign party is Calculat lation ion Interest rest Payment OIS Quot otation ion rates s required to have an analysis on the need of rupiah Base ACT/360 based d on Net etting ing based d on 2 d decim imals als interest rate derivative transactions. IndONIA ONIA Index x Not otion onal al of Net et Mar arket Con onventio entions ns. When performing IRS and OIS Quot otation tion : 1W, 2W, inter erest st paymen ent in with 5 5 1M, 2M, 3M, 4M, transactions, the respective bank is bound by market decimals mals IDR with 0 d decim imals als 5M, 6M conventions agreed upon by market players through industry association including the Indonesian Foreign Exchange Market Committee. At the 1st phase, e, OIS Comp mpou ound d Set ettlem emen ent Date e = 1 set ettle lement ment will l only ly Sett Se ttlem ement ent. Settlement can be performed as a netting Floatin ting Rates s be done at the end busin ines ess s days s after payment and every transaction has to be settled in (CFR) based d of the OIS tenor or Maturity ity Date (MD) on 5 decima mals ls Rupiah. Close lose-out out nett ne tting ing can be applied under (MD+1bd) bd). predetermined conditions. Source: Bank Indonesia 82
Stable able Monetar tary y Envir ironmen onment t Despit pite Chall lleng nges es Well ll Maint intaine ined Infla lation tion Ensu sured red Price ice Stabi bility ity Stren engt gthened ed Moneta etary ry Poli licy cy Framew ework ork (%) (%) 20 9,00 19 Augu gust 2016 8,38 38 8,36 36 8,00 The New 18 CPI (%, yoy) - rhs 8,00 Moneta tary ry Opera ratio tion 16 Volatile Food (%, yoy) - lhs 7,00 7,00 Framework LF Rate: e: 7.00 14 Administered (%, yoy) - lhs 6,00 BI Rate: e: 6.50 12 Core (%, yoy) - lhs 6,00 5,00 10 LF Rate: e: 5.25 25 8 2,98 98 4,00 3,35 35 3,61 61 3,13 13 5,00 3,02 02 6 2,72 72 2,68 68 3,00 BI 7Day RR Rate: e: 4.50 4 4,00 2,00 2 DF Rate: e: 3.75 1,00 0 3,00 -2 0,00 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Jan-2020 Feb-2020 Rupia iah Exch change ge Rate te Remains ins Compa para rable le to Peers ers Credit it Growt owth Profil ile YTD 20 2020 20 vs vs 201 019 %,yoy oy Total Growth 20 Working Capital Loans -19,63 *data as of March 18 th , 2020 Investment Loans BRL 18 -9,44 Consumption Loans -7,95 TRY point-to-point -6,04 16 -17,32 ZAR average -3,70 14 -3,84 INR -2,05 -7,18 12 KRW -1,70 10,5 -1,97 EUR 10 -1,28 -6,40 SGD -0,88 8 6,1 -1,19 CNY -0,76 6 6,1 -6,46 MYR -0,11 4 -8,28 3,6 THB 0,02 1,14 2 JPY 0,21 -8,77 IDR 0 1,55 -0,84 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 PHP 1,89 % 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 -25,0 -20,0 -15,0 -10,0 -5,0 0,0 5,0 Source: Bank Indonesia 83
Regio gional nal Inflation ation Remai mains ns under r Contr ntrol ol Inflation in most regions remain within the 2020 national inflation target range of 3.0% ± 1%. However, inflation in West Java (3.7%) and Lampung (3.8%) was still quite high which was contributed by rising commodity prices of garlics. KALIMANTA NTAN West Kalimantan 3,4 Gorontalo 3 SUMATE TERA RA Aceh 3 Riau Island 1,5 SULAWESI 2,47 South Kalimantan 3,3 North Sulawesi 3,4 2,45 North Sumatra 2 Bengkulu 2,6 East Kalimantan 2,1 2,70 Central Sulawesi 2,8 Riau 2,1 Babel lsland 1,5 Central Kalimantan 2,4 West Sulawesi 2,8 West Sumatra 2,3 South Sumatra 3,1 North Kalimantan 0,2 South Sulawesi 2,8 Lampung 3,8 Jambi 3,6 South-East Sulawesi 1,1 NATI TIONA ONAL L INF NFLA LATI TION ON FEBRU RUARI RI:2,98% % (yoy) Banten 3 JAWA JA Inf ≥ 4,5% Jakarta 3 MALUKU-PA MA PAPUA 3,2 Maluku 3 BALI-NUSA TENGGARA RA West Java 3,7 2,55 3,5% ≤ Inf < 4,5% North Maluku2,7 2,87 Bali 3,5 Central Java 3,5 Papua 2,1 2,5% ≤ Inf < 3,5% NTB 1,8 East Java 2,5 West Papua 2,7 NTT 2,3 Yogyakarta 3,1 Inf < 2,5% Source: Central Bureau of Statistics of Indonesia (BPS), calculated 84
4 Strat ategies gies to o Achie hieve e the he Inflat ation ion Targe get 2018-2019 Target 2020 20 20-20 2021 Targe get Achieving inflation at 3,5%±1% Achieving inflation at 3,0%±1% Maintaining core inflation Maintaining core inflation • • • Maintaining volatile food stability at 4-5% • Maintaining volatile food inflation less than 4% • Controlling administered price inflation • Controlling administered price inflation 4 Strat ateg egies ies 1. Price e Affordabil dabilit ity 2. Supply ly Availabi lability lity 3. Well l Managed ged Distr trib ibution ion 4. Effec ectiv ive e Communic ication ation Strengthening production, Encouraging Government Strengthening Stabilizing the Managing Strengthening trade Improving trade Improving data food reserves central-regional price demand side institution cooperation infrastructure quality and food export- coordination between regions import management Source: Bank Indonesia 85
Improving ving the Effecti ctiveness eness of Monetar etary y Policy icy Transmi ansmissi ssion on Bank nk Indon ones esia ia has instit ituted uted a Reformulation ormulation of Monetary netary Policy icy Operations ions Framewo mework k which ich consists of 3 pill llars; ; (1) (1) impleme lement ntation on of BI 7day Reverse Repo o Rate; e; (2) impleme (2) lement ntation on of reser erve e requir uiremen ement averaging ging; ; and (3) continue (3) inue to impl plemen ement money ey market ket deepening epening progr ogram. Reform rmula ulati tion on of Moneta etary Po Polic icy Operat ational ional Framewor ork Implem lemen entat tation ion of Money Implem lemen entat tation ion of Reserve e Implem lemen entat tation ion of BI 7 Day Market et Deepen ening ing Program ram Requiremen quirement t (RR) Aver veragin aging Rever verse e Repo Rate Enhancement of monetary policy Enhancement of banking liquidity Enhancement of instruments signal management and transactions Source: Bank Indonesia 86
Enhan ancemen cement t of Monetar tary y Operation ations s Frame mewor ork PREVIOU VIOUS JIBOR OR • Can be traded among contributor banks for 10 minutes. • Up to the amount of Rp10 billion. • Up to 1-month tenor. CURR RRENT ENT JIBOR OR (as per June 1 st , 2016) • Can be traded among contributor banks for 20 minutes. • Up to a total of Rp20 billion. • Up to 3-month tenor. Source: Bank Indonesia 87
Finan ancial cial Interm ermed ediation iation Managed ged to Mainta ntain in Its s Stable able Growth th In early 2020, banking and multi-finance intermediation still experience moderate growth level, as well as the capital markets and insurance premium. Financ ancing ing distrib ibut uted ed by multi-fina financ nce compani anies still ill regis ister growt wth h at 2.42% yoy Bank nking ing intermedia iatio ion n can n still ll maint intain ain its moderat ate growth at 6.10% % in Jan-20 20 as of Jan-20 20 yoy IDR Tn Bank Loans YoY Growth (rhs) 6.000 16% Financing Growth (rhs) yoy IDR tn 500 10% 14% 5.000 12% 400 8% 4.000 6,10% 10% 2,42% 300 6% 3.000 8% 6% 2.000 200 4% 4% 1.000 100 2% 2% 0 0% 0 0% Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Jan-19 Mar-19 May-19 Jul-19 Sep-19 Nov-19 Jan-20 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Compar ared to December er 2019, as of 24 Februar uary 2020, capit ital al rais ising ing throug ugh h Life fe insur uran ance gross premium ium revenue ue remain ains stab able le as of Jan-20, with h an corporat ate issuanc uance has reached hed IDR 13.95 Tn Tn increas ase in general al & reins nsur uranc ance premium iums IPO Rights Issue Corporate Bond & Sukuk IDR Tn Life Insurance Premium Growth General & Reinsurance Premium Growth 170 160 60 150 140 50 130 120 40 28,57 110 100 30 90 80 20 70 60 50 10 -0,63 40 Rights Issue; 13 30 0 IPO ; 0,92 20 IPO ; 0,03 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 10 -10 0 2016 2017 2018 Jan-20 until 24 Feb-20 -20 Source: Financial Service Authority (OJK) 88
Profit Stable Source: Financial Service Authority (OJK) 21.20% CAR of the bank lever Domes 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 itab erage mestic able Financ Jan-17 abili Jan-17 Feb-17 ility of the bank Feb-17 % as of Jan-20. ge remain Mar-17 Mar-17 ic fina Apr-17 Apr-17 May-17 nancia May-17 nking Jun-17 Jun-17 ncial in to be at a suf Jul-17 ng sector remains Jul-17 20. Aug-17 nking Aug-17 Net Interest Margin l instit Sep-17 Sep-17 ng sector is stead Oct-17 ancial Oct-17 Nov-17 itutions Nov-17 Dec-17 utions exhib Dec-17 Jan-18 Jan-18 ains high Feb-18 CAR ufficient ial Instituti Feb-18 Mar-18 icient level. Mar-18 Apr-18 Apr-18 May-18 adily gh and stab ibit May-18 Jun-18 ily maint it a relativ Jun-18 Jul-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 el. Aug-18 Sep-18 intai titutions able Sep-18 Oct-18 aine le at 22.83% ively Oct-18 Nov-18 Return on Assets ned at a stab ely stable Nov-18 Dec-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Jan-19 Feb-19 Tier 1 Feb-19 Mar-19 le cond ns Mar-19 % with Apr-19 able Apr-19 May-19 le level of around May-19 Jun-19 ndition. h Tier 1 capit Jun-19 Jul-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 ion. The capit Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Sep-19 Nov-19 Oct-19 und 5% Dec-19 Nov-19 ital 4,96 Jan-20 Dec-19 22,83 l at 2,70 pital Jan-20 21,20 l is consis Gearing (120%) RBC of the insur 0 1 2 3 4 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 Jan-17 ing ratio istentl 0 Feb-17 %) ently well Jan-17 Mar-17 Feb-17 Apr-17 io of mult Mar-17 May-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 uranc May-17 ll above Jul-17 Jun-17 nce indus Aug-17 lti-finan Jul-17 Sep-17 finance companies Aug-17 Life Insurance (Lhs) Oct-17 Sep-17 e the minimum Nov-17 Oct-17 ustry remains Nov-17 Dec-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Jan-18 Feb-18 Feb-18 imum requi Mar-18 ains high anies is stead Mar-18 Apr-18 Apr-18 May-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jun-18 gh and well Jul-18 Jul-18 uiremen Aug-18 Aug-18 adil Sep-18 Sep-18 ements, ily maint Oct-18 Oct-18 General Insurance (rhs) Nov-18 Nov-18 l above Dec-18 Dec-18 intained Jan-19 , while Jan-19 Feb-19 e the minim Feb-19 ined at level Mar-19 ile prof Mar-19 Apr-19 Apr-19 May-19 May-19 Jun-19 ofit nimum Jun-19 Jul-19 itabili Aug-19 Jul-19 l around um thresh Sep-19 Aug-19 ility Oct-19 Sep-19 und 3-tim y and Nov-19 Oct-19 345 345 eshol 789 789 Dec-19 Nov-19 Jan-20 old Dec-19 imes 2,53 Jan-20 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 89
Managea geable ble Cred edit it Risks sks with h Adequat ate e Liquid uidity ity Banks anks are are eq equip ippe ped wit ith suf sufficient cient li liqui uid ass sset ets. Insurance nsurance in industr ustry also also demonstr emonstrates ates a su sufficient icient level el of of inv investme estment nt ad adeq equacy acy rati atio. Credit edit risk isk is is al also so managed ged at at a low level as as non non-per performing orming loan and non non-per performing orming fina nanci ncing ng remains ins below low the thres eshold old. The ratio io of liquid uid assets to deposit it and non-core deposit its of the bank nking ing sector Invest estment nt adequac uacy ratio io in the insur uran ance indus ustry is maint intai aine ned above 100% are maint intained ained well above the thresh eshold ld % % % Life Insurance General Insurance Liquid Assets to Non-Core Deposits Liquid Assets to Deposits 140 30 250 130 185,44 25 200 120 21,47 110 20 150 100 90 15 101,49 100 80 116,14 10 70 threshold LA to Deposit (rhs) = 10% 50 60 5 50 0 threshold LA/ NCD= 50% 40 0 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 May-… May-… Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 As of Jan-20, the gross & net NPL ratio ios of the bank nking ng sector are 2.77% & 1.04% NPF ratio io of the mult lti-fi financ nance indus ustry constant ntly ly remains ains low at 2.56% % as of Jan-20 20 according ingly and well l maint intain ained below w the thresh eshold ld % % 5 5 NPL Net NPL Gross 4 4 2,77 3 3 2,56 2 2 1,04 1 1 0 0 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Source: Financial Service Authority (OJK) 90
Managea geable ble Mark rket t Risks sks Amid midst st the he incr increas easing ing mark arket et volat olatil ilit ity, y, the he risk isk pr prof ofil ile of of financia inancial insti institut utions ions rem emains ins mana managea eable le. Net et open open posit position ion of of the he bank anking ing se sect ctor or wa was maintained ntained at at a low level, l, while le the inves estmen ment value ue of of domes mestic ic instit itutiona utional inves estors ors was still ll relativ ively ely stable le. Net et open en pos posit ition ion in in the he bank ankin ing sect ector is is maint intained ined sign gnifi ificant antly ly far far bel elow ow the he Mutual ual funds’ ne net as asset valu alue (NAV) is is manage naged to to be be mai aint ntaine ained wi with lo low to to maxim imum um limit it (20 20%) moderat ate volatili ility % IDR Tn NAV Mutual Funds JCI (rhs) 3 610 7.000 560 6.500 2,21 510 6.000 2 460 5.500 410 5.000 1 360 4.500 310 As of 6 March, 2020 260 4.000 0 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 The exposur ures es of mult lti-fi financ nance companies anies to foreign ign debt have e large gely ly been Insur uranc ance & pensio ion fund nd invest estment nt value ue is is growin wing stead adily ly. mitiga igated ed by compan any hedgi ging ng meas asur ures es IDR Tn IDR Tn Domestic Debt Foreign Debt 170,94 Insurance Pension Funds (rhs) 200 1.500 400 175 1166,5 1.200 150 350 125 900 100 300 97,86 75 600 50 282 282 250 300 25 0 0 200 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Feb-18 Apr-18 Jun-18 Aug-18 Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19 Dec-19 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Feb-18 Apr-18 Jun-18 Aug-18 Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19 Dec-19 Source: Financial Service Authority (OJK) 91
Domest estic ic Capital ital Mark rket t Perfor orma manc nce e Amid d Global al Challenges llenges In dom omes estic tic capita pital l markets, rkets, bond and stock ock perform ormances es are e contra tracti cting g as s In line e with h global al Indic ices, es, JCI is also under pressur ure of COVID-19 econom omic ic effect. the e resu sult lt of plungi ging oil prices ces and heigh eighten tened ed COVID VID-19 fears rs Indones nesian ian Governm nment nt and Regula ulator have taken n certain ain actio ions ns to minim nimiz ize e the effect. Stock ock Index ex Perf rfor ormance 10 March 2020 (Com ompare red to 31 Decem embe ber r 2019) WORLD -13,05 Comp Bond Index Comp Stock Index (rhs) 300 7000 281 281 THAI -19,53 290 S KOREA -10,68 6500 INDO -17,12 280 6000 HKN -9,92 270 SIN -12,11 5500 260 PHIL -19,15 250 5000 CHIN -1,75 5.221 MAL -9,96 240 4500 JPN -16,02 230 EU -18,76 4000 220 US -12,34 As of 10 March, 2020 3500 BRAZ -20,26 210 TURK -11,68 200 3000 Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19 Dec-19 Feb-20 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 Altho houg ugh lessen en in March h compar ared ed to Februar uary, foreign ign portfoli lio is experienci encing ng net The government’s bond yields are showing an increase, following rupiah’s outflo flow w due to the global al financ nancial ial challe alleng nges es deprec recia iation tion 5-yr Yield 10-yr Yield 20-yr Yield IDR (rhs) Gov't Debt Securities Equity Yield (%) 60 15500 50 10 40 15000 30 9 14500 20 8 -18,06 10 14000 0 7 13500 -10 -20 6 13000 -30 As of 9 March, 2020 -1,54 As of 10 March, 2020 -40 5 12500 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Nov-19 Source: Bloomberg and Ministry of Finance 92
Strat rategic egic Polic licies ies in Finan ancial cial Sector or Providing financing alternatives for Goverment Priority Sectors Supporting acceleration of national economic growth Providing financial access to MSMEs especially in remote areas Preparing financial services industry to cope with Industrial Revolution 4.0 Improvement of business process in the industry Source: Financial Service Authority (OJK) 93
Continuou tinuous s Progr gram am on Capital ital Mark rket t Deepen ening ing …continuously strengthened, including through capital market deepening ini niti tiativ atives es Enhanci ancing the supply-side side Stren engthen thening ing market t infras astr tructure Product: QIB offering and private placements, private Development of Integrated Licensing (SPRINT). fund, asset-backed securities, REITs, infrastructure fund, Enhancement of electronic reporting system. IGBF (Indonesia Government Bonds Future) & equity Development of electronic public offering. crowdfunding. Integrated data warehouse and supervisory system. Issuer: Financial conglomerates, big bank debtors, local government, IDX incubators, SMEs, SOEs & big tax payers. Stren engthen thening ing governance ance & c cust stom omer er Enhanci ancing the deman mand-side side protec ectio ion Enhancing the role of the domestic institutional investors Development of market players’ capacity (insurers & pension funds) in capital markets . Enhancement of GCG for publicly-listed companies Development of the domestic investor base (conducting Establishment of disgorgement fund investor education programs). Simplification in opening securities account. Development of regional securities companies. Development of e-bookbuilding. Online marketing initiative Source: Financial Service Authority (OJK) 94
Enhan ancing cing Financi ncial al Literac eracy y & Inclusion usion OJ OJK striv strives s to o buil build a a str strong foun ounda dation for or fina inancial l incl inclusi sion prog ograms, , to o en ensu sure ac access to o finan inancial products ts & & ser ervices by In Indo donesians of of all all soc ocial l cla lasses. Such Such in initia itiati tives als also in include th the e en enha hancement t of of fin inan ancial lit liter eracy an and d finan inancial cons onsumer protecti tion. Developing Promoting the Strengthening Developing micro-credit Enhancing the establishment the role of financial education role of the products with of Islamic Financial Access models utilizing additional business “Investment microfinance Acceleration various delivery support (“ KUR Alert Taskforce ” institutions (“ Bank Taskforce (TPAKD) in channels Klaster ”) Wakaf Mikro ”) local areas The result of OJK’s 2019 national survey demonstrated an improvement in financial literacy & inclusion among Indo donesian ans com ompared ed to that t of 2016. 21.8% 29.7% 38.03 .03% 59.7% 59 67 67.8% 76.19% Fina inanc ncial 2013 2016 Fina inanc ncial 2013 2016 2019 2019 Lit iter eracy cy Inclu clusio ion 2019 Targ rget: 35% 2019 Targ rget: 75% Source: Financial Service Authority (OJK) 95
A A Comprehen prehensiv sive e Financ ncia ial l Deepe pening ning Program ogram … strat trategy gy to tackle challenges in deepening Indonesia’s financial markets In Apr-2016 2016, the Minis nister er of Fina nance nce, , the Gover erno nor of Bank nk Indon ones esia, ia, and the Chair irma man n of the Board of Commi missione ioners of the Financi ncial l Service ices Authorit ority launc nched ed a Coordina ination ion Forum um for Developme elopment nt Financin ncing throug ugh Financia ncial Market ket (FK-PPPK). K). The e three ee authorit orities ies have e agreed eed to formula mulate e “The Natio ional l Strategy egy of Fina nancia ncial l Market ket Development elopment ” Vision: To Establish Deep, Liquid, Efficient, Inclusive, and Safe Financial Market Mission: Financial Market as Sources of National Development Financing TARGET KEY PERFORMANCE INDICATOR STRATEGIC ACTION PLAN 1 2 3 POLICY COORDINATION, ECONOMIC FUNDING & RISK MARKET INFRASTRUCTURE 3 Pilars HARMONIZATION & MANAGEMENT DEVELOPMENT EDUCATION Money Bond Stock Syariah Structure Product FX Market 6 Markets Market Market Market Market Market Fund Regulatory 7 Elements Market Infrastructure Framework of Financial Instrument Market Benchmark Rate & Coordination & Ecosystem Education Standardization Intermediaries 96 Source: Bank Indonesia
BI’s Roles in Supporting Distribution of Non -Cash Cash Soc ocial ial Assistance stance (NCS CSA) A) BI suppor orts ts gover ernme ment ’s progra ogram m of shiftin ing socia ial l assista istanc nce to targeted ed non cash sh soc ocial ial assistan istance disbu sburse seme ment t throu ough h the elec ectr tronic ic paymen ent system em. In the future, re, elec ectr tronic ic mechan hanism ism disbu bursem rsement t will l be also o applie ied d to LPG subsidy sidy. . NCSA A Programs ams Pilot Proj ojec ect Family ily Hope Program ram Smart Indone onesia ia (Program gram Keluarga uarga Program ram (Program gram Harapan an -PKH KH) Indon ones esia ia Pintar tar-PIP PIP) Gradu adual al Impl mpleme ementatio tation 2016-20 9876543210 XXYYZZ 2020 1234567 678 Full Non Cash 20 Imp mpleme lementati tation Food d Assistan tance e (Bantuan tuan Pangan gan Non Tunai ai – BPNT) LPG Subsidy idy Inter erconne onnected ed & inter eroperable operable paymen ent t syst stem em Source: Bank Indonesia 97
Prog ogres ress of of NCSA A Prog ograms ms Family ly Hope e Program ogram Non on Cash Food od Assistance istance (Program ram Kelu luarga rga Harap rapan an - PKH) (Ban antuan Pangan gan Non on Tunai - BPNT) • BPNT is a poverty alleviation and social protection • The Family Hope Program (PKH) is a program that program that is managed by the central provides cash to very poor households. government. It provides subsidized rice and eggs Rp 1,89 million /year will be granted for each to low-income households. Rp 110 household. PKH will be granted every February, thousand/month will be granted for each May, August, and November. household as BPNT that can be used in certain stores which called e-warong. • As of December 2017, PKH has been distributed • As of December 2017, BPNT was distributed to to 6,0 million households on non-cash basis. 1,2 million households in 44 cities. • In 2018, BPNT has been distributed to 10.1 million • In 2018, PKH has been distributed to 10 million households (65.1% of the target of 15.5 million households on non-cash basis. households target). • As of Sept-2019, BPNT has been • As of Sept-2019, PKH has been distributed to 9.8 distributed to 13.0 million households million households on non-cash basis with with realization of 68.04% of the 2019 realization of 82.52% of the 2019 budget. budget. Source: Bank Indonesia 98
Strong onger er Fundamentals amentals Facing ng the Headwi dwind nds Inflation tion Rate te (%) IDR R Movem emen ent t (%) Forei eign gn Reserv rves (USD D bn) Significan antl tly y highe her than n 1998 & 2008, ample to cover 7.5 Inflat ation contro trolled d withi thin the target t range IDR depreciate ted d year-to to-date date in March h 2020 months ths of import t and exte ternal al debt t repaym yment 1998 -197 1998 17,4 1998 82,4 2008 -35 2008 50,2 2008 12,1 130.4 Mar ’20 Sep-15 Sep-15 6,8 2.98 98 (yoy) Feb ’20 18-Mar-20 (ytd) -8,77 More e Liquid quid Market rket (%) Non-Perf Non Perform ormin ing g Loa oan/NPL PL (% (%) Overnight ht interbank k money y market t rate is NPL NPL level (gross) is below w the maximum um thresho hold of 5% relati tively y lower 62 62 1998 30 30 2008 3.8 10,5 4.8 5,7 Jan ‘ 20 Aug-15 2,8 1998 2008 Tw IV ‘19 Jul-15 Extern ernal l Debt bt (Publ blic ic & Priva ivate) te) to Extern ernal l Debt bt/G /GDP Government ent Debt/G t/GDP FX Reserv erve e Ratio tio Slightl tly higher than n 2008, but significan antl tly y Consiste tentl tly y well-mai ainta tained Significan antl tly y lower than n 1998 crisis lower than 1998 8.6x 3.1x 27.4% 100.0% 116.8% 3.1x 33.2% 29.8% 1998 98 2008 08 36.1% 2008 08 1998 98 1998 98 2008 08 Q4 - 201 2019 Q4 - 201 2019 Q4 - 2019 99
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