Greg Gust gregory.gust@noaa.gov NOAA/NWS Grand Forks ND 20 March 2019 2019 RRWMB and FDRWG 21 st Annual Joint Conference, Moorhead MN
Extreme Continentality! We are Land Locked... Farthest from the moderating affects of oceans. Battle ground of extreme airmasses (arctic/tropical). Highest annual, seasonal, weekly... ...and diurnal variability in Temp/Precip. What are MN’s record hottest and record coldest Temps?
93F/79F 19 July 2011 92F/82F 117F 117F A Northern Plains Extreme Heat Episode… 83F/73F 87F 90F/86F Tx = Max Temp (F) 90F/81F 115F TDx = Max DewPt 105F 90F/83F HIx = Mx Heat Index 113F 87F/84F Legend: 110F 82F/73F 86F Tx/TDx 95F/83F HIx 116F 95F/88F 95F/75F 92F/81F 134F 107F 113F *note: HIx did not always 91F/89F occur at Tx and/or at TDx. 131F 94F/81F 113F 99F/81F 118F 96F/82F 120F
Red River at Fargo, ND 29,500 cfs Apr. 9, 2011 40.84 41 26,200 cfs 39.72 40 39.10 38.77 39 38 37.34 37.13 36.99 36.69 37 36 35.39 34.93 35 34 33 32 31 2009 1997 1897 2011 1969 2006 2010 2001 1989 1979 2011 Peak Ranks 4 th in 111 Years of Record 2011 Exceedance Probability (.02 -.01) Original analysis courtesy of Chris LaVeau, USGS Office, Grand Forks ND
Red River at Fargo, ND 05054000 Annual Volume of Water (Oct.-Sept.) 4 3.20 3 Million Acre-ft 2.53 2.09 2 1.90 1.61 1.39 1 0.92 0 1979 2006 2001 1997 2010 2009 2011
Missouri River flood pix… near Omaha Spr. 2011
[Current as of 8pm 20 Mar 2019]
2011 Flooding Issues In Summary… 2011 saw record Water Year flows along all Northern Plains river systems, including the Red and Souris, (and Assiniboine) Rivers, flowing into Manitoba and Hudson’s Bay …plus Missouri, Mississippi, and Ohio Rivers, flowing into the Gulf of Mexico.
Over the Short or Long Run… Our RRB has a Highly Variable Annual Precipitation!
Fargo Clay Soil From 2011 Flood to 2012 Drought Courtesy Prof. David Hopkins, NDSU, Photo by John Nowatski South of Red River Valley Fairgrounds August 22, 2012 13 North Central River Forecast Center Building a Weather-Ready Nation Chanhassen, MN
Antelope Creek ND 2004-2013 [Then 2012 Drought to 2013 Flood] Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) vs Runoff Efficiency 8 7.05 7 2011 2013 6 5.9 5.2 5 5 SWE (inches) 2010 2009 4.2 4 SWE 3 2.85 2.33 2.25 2 1.84 1.5 1 0 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% Percent Runoff Mike DeWeese, NCRFC 14 North Central River Forecast Center Building a Weather-Ready Nation Chanhassen, MN
So what went wrong in 2013? Two Things: 1. The latest/slowest thaw in 130 years! 2. The ground thawed, allowing infiltration… Lessons learned from Jody’s Talk on Wednesday: Understanding Conflict!
From Chad Engels, Moore Engineering... Note the addition of several recent NDAWN/USGS sponsored deep soil moisture and temperature stations!
9 of 16 New NDAWN/USGS soil Temp/Moisture stations in the RRB
The Use of Seasonal-Scale Climate Tools as aids in Determining Snowmelt Flood Risk Your Photo Steve Buan , NOAA/NCRFC Chanhassen MN Poster 6 Climate tools help move us from a Possibility to a Probability to a “Number” ...in the hydrologic outlook and forecast process. 3. From AHPS, first fielded here in FY2000 Through HEFS, spreading basin-wide now Climate Data and Outlooks help us to define and illustrate our shared Risk! 2. 1. And welcome to my hydrologic nightmare: Fargo ND!
The problem of moving from a probabilistic Outlook, weeks in advance… to the deterministic Forecast, xx days in advance. ? Tough to extend the Forecast more than 7 days into the future… so much “noise”
[as used in AHPS Probabilities]
[as used in developmental HEFS]
An ECCC and NOAA Bilateral agreement “project” addresses cross-border collaboration and coordination of alerts for extremes of Heat and Cold The current NCEP process uses reforecast-calibrated GEFS to derive a full probability distribution function NEW At our request, Melissa Ou and others at (PDF), which allows one to determine probabilities of multiple element thresholds. But... It’s for internal NCEP are working on expanded temp and precip NCEP access only! (re: Dan Collins et al) options (maybe winds-n-dewpt too?)... ...for (eventual) Field Office Access and Use! Expanded Forecast Options, for Public Health Emphasis! Used in NCEP Expanded Day 8-14 Prob Area: AK/HI Hazards and Canada Gregory Gust - Warning Coordination Meteorologist, NOAA/NWS Grand Forks ND May 2018
From yesterday, 3/20/19, the Week-2 Extremes Tool points to an increased risk of higher than normal precipitation (still less than an inch) around the 28 th and 29 th . https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/extremesTool.php
With the risk for Min Temps below 32F very low on Day 8 (3/28)… This means overnight thaw and movement of water into streams. But much higher after Day 10 (3/30 into 4/03)… which shuts the thaw back down. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/extremesTool.php
With the risk for Min Temps below 32F very low on Day 8 (3/28)… This means overnight thaw and movement of water into streams. But much higher after Day 10 (3/30 into 4/03)… which shuts the thaw back down. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/extremesTool.php
Drought to Flood, or Flood to Drought? the latest Spring Flood Outlook… and maybe storms!? Greg Gust gregory.gust@noaa.gov NOAA/NWS Grand Forks ND 21 March 2019
Bottom Line up Front: • First half of March has been Merciless, w/two nasty wet storms. • Top 10 runoff year in now expected. Expect to see lots of water moving across the landscape towards the rivers. • Moderate to Major River Flooding is nearly guaranteed , especially along and near the mainstem Red. • Good News: This week… still an ideal/slow thaw cycle. • Not Good: Weekend showers; next week see-saw, stormy?
Flood Risk by Category at River/Lake Forecast Points Risk is up another notch. Nearly everybody’s in the pool now!
For this update… So far, for 2019, by Ingredient: 1. Fall Moisture was High. 2. Streamflow is Normal. 3. Frost is Deep. 4. Snowpack is Very High. 5. Snow water is Very High. (Snowpack and SWE are now approaching extreme!) 6. Spring Thaw is Late. - Favors fast thaw cycle. - Late favors more rain. 7. Spring Rain Risk is Up. The Far North RRB was still Abnormally Dry at freeze-up …and not as extreme for snowfall !!
Moisture last 7 days was high: 1.5 to 2 in., Fargo and points south and east
Moisture last 7 days was high all over… and could have been a lot worse!
Total seasonal snowfall to date is quite high… 73.3 59.1
Snow Water Equiv (SWE) is BIG… Top 10 Ranking (of 120+ years) Much of the RRB is now in the 90 th percentile for SWE! Good News: We’re not in the 99 th percentile!!
We’re not Anywhere near ‘97 and ‘09 levels… Yet this Year! This is the amount of total moisture, rain and snow… For the Water Year beginning October 1 st ... Through now. 4”+ To date, Grand Forks has had 7.44 inches of moisture, (3.2” above normal) Fargo-Moorhead has had 8.38 inches of moisture, (3.7” above normal)
‘97 and ’09 just had too much Snow/Water in the System! Above Normal - Spring 1997 Above Normal - Spring 2009 7+ 7+ Excess Precipitation from Oct 1 st through Apr 15 th was higher in 2009 than 1997… - But runoff was earlier, late March in 2009, versus mid-April in 1997 - While 1997 had more carry over water from the previous Water Year
Perspective across recent RRV floods Note: This compares WY2019-to-date (15 Mar 2019) compared to total precipitation for BIG Flood Years through April 30 th .
Soil Moisture Percentile, as of 5 Mar 2019 Soil moisture is high… 70 th to 90 th percentile south of Grand Forks, nearer normal north.
Frost Depths – Deeper than normal (blo turf/snow) NDAWN Soil Temperatures added as filled circles, same legend colors.
USGS 28-day Average Streamflow… is near normal Sheyenne River, dark blue, artificially high due to DVL through-flow and subsequent Baldhill Dam drawdown.
Storm System Next: Sat PM into Sunday AM…
NWS/WPC Forecast 7-Day QPF… Thru Mar 27 th [ Near Normal for us!] Active/Wet pattern across the Central Plains continues for a while more.
Melting Degrees How Many Hours will we be above 30F (or 32F)? At 60-100 hrs we usually start to see streamflow in those areas of multi-day thaw. A drop below 30F (32F) resets counter to zero. We closely watch what has already occurred (is observed) and what is forecast
8-14 Day Outlooks [Normalish… but Mixed Precip, into Apr 2] Building a Weather-Ready Nation
Experimental Wk 3-4 Outlooks [Optimistic: Less Cold and Somewhat Drier!] Building a Weather-Ready Nation
Building a Weather-Ready Nation
https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=FGF
Red River at Wahpeton-Breckenridge: Major (possible flood wall/bridge closures, rural roads affected)
Red River at Fargo-Moorhead: Major (F-M Toll Bridge and 1 st Ave Bridge closed, Sandbagging?)
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