Atlanta Public Schools Atlanta Public Schools Capacity Study and - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

C APACITY S TUDY 2011 Atlanta Public Schools Atlanta Public Schools Capacity Study and Facilities Plan SRT 4 Community Meeting: y g Wednesday, November 30, 2011 North Atlanta High School

C APACITY S TUDY 2011 Tonight’s Agenda T i h ’ A d • Consultant Presentation – Provide an update on the Study process – Describe the rationale behind the Options presented • Demographic forces impacting enrollment • Demographic forces impacting enrollment • Key capacity issues impacting SRT 4 genda • How to interpret the maps How to interpret the maps Ag • Review the detailed maps and provide your input – Ask questions of the consultant team Ask questions of the consultant team – Provide your written comments on the forms provided • Rank and record your thoughts and observations related to the Options presented • Suggest refinements or additional considerations

C APACITY S TUDY 2011 Study Status Update Study Status Update

C APACITY S TUDY 2011 Phase I : Data Collection/Modeling Phase II : Alternatives Analysis Tonight begins the process of s y Process y Process vetting Options and developing Phase III : Implementation Strategies “preferred“ implementation implementation Study Study strategies to present to the Submit Report: to the Superintendent Superintendent and brief the School Board on findings g of Schools f S h l Post Completion: Superintendent considers Post Completion: Superintendent considers findings & makes recommendations to the School Board

C APACITY S TUDY 2011 Public Input Process Public Input Process • On ‐ line demographics survey – 4,250 responses received through November 23 4,250 responses received through November 23 – Paper version added in October to broaden response rate cess cess • 600+ paper survey returns are now being processed nput Pro nput Pro – On line survey will remain active for another week – Results will be used to help narrow/refine range of Public In Public In options and possibly suggest additional concepts to be i d ibl ddi i l b explored before making study recommendations • Community meeting input Community meeting input – You will be given an opportunity to respond in writing to the Options presented tonight – Responses will be tabulated and reported in January with the study recommendations

C APACITY S TUDY 2011 Public Input Process to Date P bli I P D • Focus group meetings with SRT representatives Focus group meetings with SRT representatives – Held October 16 to 20 ocess ocess – Representative participation nput Pro nput Pro – Discussed strengths, weaknesses, opportunities & threats impacting local schools Public In Public In – Provided the consultant team with specific information id d h l i h ifi i f i regarding local school and neighborhood conditions, local issues and parental concerns p – Discussed pros/cons of potential concepts to be evaluated

C APACITY S TUDY 2011 Focus Group Summary • Some schools have perhaps grown too large – further expansion on some existing sites is not an option mary mary • The quality of facilities, use of technology and oup Summ oup Summ educational delivery vary across neighborhood schools – The perception of academic inequality/poor performance levels in some schools is worse than reality levels in some schools is worse than reality Focus Gro Focus Gro – Schools with diverse student populations consider that characteristic to be a strength F • Some schools have less physical capacity and can effectively hold fewer students than planning estimates indicate

C APACITY S TUDY 2011 F Focus Group Summary G S • Evaluate the option to create a new elementary school at Sutton MS. • Avoid creating larger attendance zones and transporting children to schools further from their neighborhoods. Avoid creating oddly shaped or gerrymandered attendance zones just to achieve gerrymandered attendance zones just to achieve enrollment balance. • Consider alternative grade configurations including • Consider alternative grade configurations, including K ‐ 5 models in place of primary centers, 5 th /6 th grade, K ‐ 8 configurations, etc. in some locations g , g , where it may make sense.

C APACITY S TUDY 2011 Remaining Study Process Remaining Study Process • We will combine, analyze & report input from tonight’s session PLUS the demographic survey & focus groups session, PLUS the demographic survey & focus groups s s y Process y Process • We will consider that input in narrowing options down to two recommended implementation strategies to two recommended implementation strategies the Study the Study – Incorporate/refine the best elements of the 4 Options – Test additional scenarios for localized areas that may Test additional scenarios for localized areas that may t Steps in t Steps in emerge from these meetings • Calculate/report the financial implications of the two Next Next recommended strategies • Hold a second round of community meetings in January before finalizing recommendations and reporting findings to the Superintendent

C APACITY S TUDY 2011 Summary of Key Issues Impacting the Atlanta Public Schools Atlanta Public Schools and SRT 4

C APACITY S TUDY 2011 Updated Enrollment Forecasts U d t d E ll t F t • Revised forecasts for each school and grade level have been Summary y Summary updated and extended from the previous 2010 estimates d d d d d f h i 2010 i • These updated forecasts: – Reflect 2010 Census data Reflect 2010 Census data Forecast S Forecast S – Incorporate final first quarter FTE student attendance figures for all APS schools, including charters – Include revised student address data for students attending traditional Include revised student address data for students attending traditional ollment F ollment F APS schools, charter schools, private schools and home schooled • Forecasts are extended to the 2021 ‐ 22 school year Enro Enro – Provides 2 additional forecast years • These revised enrollment forecasts are based on existing attendance zone boundaries

C APACITY S TUDY 2011 Key variables impacting APS enrollment K i bl i ti APS ll t • Enrollment bubble started in the past decade will be moving through the middle & high school grades h h h iddl & hi h h l d y Summary Summary • Substantially lower housing starts – greater influence of resale market turnover and households aging in place market turnover and households aging in place Forecast S Forecast S • More renter households delaying home ownership and having school ‐ aged children ollment F ollment F • Less out ‐ migration of families with school ‐ aged children to suburban counties • Higher retention of students progressing through high school • Higher retention of students progressing through high school Enro Enro (dropout/exit rates are declining) • Access to private school alternatives will be limited by the economy and a finite supply of available private school seats

C APACITY S TUDY 2011 District ‐ wide enrollment forecast Di t i t id ll t f t APS Enrollment Trends & Forecasts (Including Charter Schools) 35,000 30,000 25,000 llment 20,000 Total Enrol 15,000 10,000 Trends Q1 ‐ 2011 Forecast 5,000 A Actual l 0 2005 ‐ 06 2006 ‐ 07 2007 ‐ 08 2008 ‐ 09 2009 ‐ 10 2010 ‐ 11 2011 ‐ 12 2012 ‐ 13 2013 ‐ 14 2014 ‐ 15 2015 ‐ 16 2016 ‐ 17 2017 ‐ 18 2018 ‐ 19 2019 ‐ 20 2020 ‐ 21 2021 ‐ 22 Elementary Schools Middle Schools High Schools Forecast Summary Forecast Summary Elementary Elementary Middle Middle High High TOTAL TOTAL Current SRT Enrollment 27,424 10,610 11,957 49,991 2005 ‐ 11 Enrollment Change 3,127 12.9% 478 4.7% (810) ‐ 6.3% 2,795 5.9% Forecast Peak Enrollment 29,288 12,146 14,092 55,526 Forecast Change: 2011 to Peak Year 1,864 6.8% 1,536 14.5% 2,135 17.9% 4,169 8.3% Peak Enrollment Year 2016 ‐ 17 2019 ‐ 20 2021 ‐ 22 2018 ‐ 19 2021 ‐ 22 Forecast Enrollment 26,765 11,989 14,092 52,846 Forecast Change : Current to 2021 ‐ 22 (659) ‐ 2.4% 1,379 13.0% 2,135 17.9% 2,855 5.7%

C APACITY S TUDY 2011 SRT Elementary School Enrollment Forecasts SRT Elementary School Enrollment Forecasts (Updated to reflect 2010 Census Results)

C APACITY S TUDY 2011 SRT Middle School Enrollment Forecasts SRT Middle School Enrollment Forecasts (Updated to reflect 2010 Census Results) Middle School Enrollment Trends & Forecasts by SRT (Including Charter Schools) Middl S h l E ll T d & F b SRT (I l di Ch S h l ) 5,000 4,500 4,000 3 500 3,500 Total Enrollment 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 Q1 ‐ 2011 1,000 Trends Forecast Actual 500 0 2005 ‐ 06 2006 ‐ 07 2007 ‐ 08 2008 ‐ 09 2009 ‐ 10 2010 ‐ 11 2011 ‐ 12 2012 ‐ 13 2013 ‐ 14 2014 ‐ 15 2015 ‐ 16 2016 ‐ 17 2017 ‐ 18 2018 ‐ 19 2019 ‐ 20 2020 ‐ 21 2021 ‐ 22 SRT 1 SRT 2 SRT 3 SRT 4 Forecast Summary SRT 1 SRT 2 SRT 3 SRT 4 Current SRT Enrollment 3,435 1,737 2,444 2,994 2005 ‐ 11 Enrollment Change (139) ‐ 3.9% (93) ‐ 5.1% 240 10.9% 470 18.6% Forecast Peak Enrollment 3,638 1,778 3,094 4,023 Forecast Change: 2011 to Peak Year F t Ch 2011 t P k Y 203 203 5 9% 5.9% 41 41 2 4% 2.4% 650 650 26.6% 26 6% 1,029 1 029 34 4% 34.4% Peak Enrollment Year 2013 ‐ 14 2012 ‐ 13 2021 ‐ 22 2020 ‐ 21 2021 ‐ 22 Forecast Enrollment 3,322 1,555 3,094 4,018 Forecast Change : Current to 2021 ‐ 22 (113) ‐ 3.3% (182) ‐ 10.5% 650 26.6% 1,024 34.2%