Assessment Final Presentation Andrew Knudtsen, Managing Principal - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Lake County Housing Needs Assessment Final Presentation Andrew Knudtsen, Managing Principal Rachel Shindman, Associate Oakland Denver Los Angeles Sacramento Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. July 2018 Denver Los Angeles Oakland Sacramento Lake County Housing Needs Assessment | 1

About EPS Firm Description Regional and Relevant Experience Clients Full service economic consulting firm • Denver, Oakland, Sacramento, Los Chaffee County • • Angeles Summit County • Expertise • Eagle County • o Real estate economics Pitkin County • o Economic development Garfield County • o Public finance Clear Creek County • o Fiscal and economic impact Park County • analysis Custer County • o Affordable housing Fremont County • ▪ National practice Town of Vail • ▪ Colorado mountain Oakland Denver Los Angeles Sacramento City of Idaho Springs • community focus since 1990 Lake County Housing Needs Assessment | 2

Agenda Study Overview Data Summary Issues, Goals, and Action Plan Questions Photo: coloradoguy.com Oakland Denver Los Angeles Sacramento Lake County Housing Needs Assessment | 3

Study Overview 1. Market Demographics 5. Summary of Issues Population characteristics Key issues • • Employment and economy Housing goals • • 2. Housing Conditions 6. Identification of Goals 3. Market Trends 7. Delineation of Actions For-sale housing Policy • • Rental housing Organizations • • 4. Affordability Indicators Assets • Photo: coloradoguy.com Oakland Denver Los Angeles Sacramento Lake County Housing Needs Assessment | 4

Study Goals and Objectives Community-wide understanding of the need Multi-faceted approach to the problem and solution Action plan that enables the community to align resources and direct them into achievable solutions Oakland Denver Los Angeles Sacramento Lake County Housing Needs Assessment | 5

Key Questions What are the housing needs facing Leadville and Lake County? Who is affected? What resources are available to address housing issues, and how do they match identified needs? What goals are realistic and attainable, and how can they be achieved? Oakland Denver Los Angeles Sacramento Lake County Housing Needs Assessment | 6

Project Process Data Analysis First Community Meeting Targeted Follow Up Research Second Community Meeting Resource and Strategy Evaluation Oakland Denver Los Angeles Sacramento Goals and Actions Lake County Housing Needs Assessment | 7

DEMOGRAPHIC CONTEXT Oakland Denver Los Angeles Sacramento Lake County Housing Needs Assessment | 8

Population Growth Population (Lake County, 2017) | 7,900 Households (Lake County, 2017) | 3,200 Annual Population Growth | 2010-2017 Leadville 0.6% Lake County 1.1% The region’s population decreased from 2000 to 2010  Mostly due to people moving out Since 2010, trends shifted and the area has recently recovered to 2000 population levels  From 2010 to 2017 Lake County grew by an average of Oakland Denver Los Angeles Sacramento 80 new residents per year Lake County Housing Needs Assessment | 9

Population Growth An Aging Population| 2000-2016 34% 32% 27% 21% 16% 15% 14% 14% 13% 8% 4% 2% 0 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 34 35 to 59 60 to 74 75 and Over 2000 2016 The most growth since 2000 has been in residents aged 60 to 74 Oakland Denver Los Angeles Sacramento Over this time, there has also been a decline in residents aged 34 and younger Lake County Housing Needs Assessment | 10

Income Household Income $ Median household income in Lake County is approximately $47,000 28% lower than Colorado statewide 20% 19% 15% 12% 11% 11% 9% 2% 1% Almost 30% of households in Lake County Oakland Denver Los Angeles Sacramento earn less than $25,000 per year Lake County Housing Needs Assessment | 11

Income Income by Source $ 63% of income comes from employment – down from 72% in 2001 18% of income now comes from Transfer Receipts – up from 11% in 2001 80% Employment Income Dividends, Interest, and Rent Transfer Receipts 70% 63% 60% 50% 40% 30% 19% 20% 18% 10% 0% Oakland Denver Los Angeles Sacramento 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis; Economic & Planning Systems Lake County Housing Needs Assessment | 12

EMPLOYMENT AND ECONOMIC TRENDS Oakland Denver Los Angeles Sacramento Lake County Housing Needs Assessment | 13

Employment Total Employment (Lake County) | 3,500 Total Employed Residents (Lake County) | 4,000 Largest Employment Sectors Wages Education and Health Services, $ The average wage in Lake County is $35,000 Leisure and Hospitality, Natural Resources and Mining, and Government Education and Health Services 22% Proprietors 30% of employment in Leisure and Hospitality 18% Lake County is Proprietors Natural Resources and Mining 17% (business owners) Government 14% Oakland Denver Los Angeles Sacramento Source: Colorado Department of Labor; Economic & Planning Systems Lake County Housing Needs Assessment | 14

Commuting Commuting Patterns 75% of residents commute out of the County for work Most employees commuting in to Lake County come from Chaffee County Most Lake County residents commuting out are going to Summit County and Eagle County Employed in Lake County, Live Outside Employed and Live in Lake County Oakland Denver Los Angeles Sacramento Live in Lake County, Employed Outside Lake County Housing Needs Assessment | 15

Economic Recovery and Growth Total Employment| Indexed to 2006 Employment Index Lake County Summit County Eagle County Colorado 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: BLS; Economic & Planning Systems Compared to neighboring counties, Lake County experienced a slower and less drastic, but more prolonged decrease in employment Oakland Denver Los Angeles Sacramento Lake County saw economic recovery beginning in 2014 Lake County Housing Needs Assessment | 16

Challenges to Growth Employment Vacancies| February – June 2018 Interviews with large and small Employers have indicated employers indicate over 100 vacant that housing challenges positions in Lake County affect recruitment Newly hired employees This represents 3% vacancy in local have turned down jobs employment – a significant piece of because of challenges the local economy finding local housing When appropriate and affordable housing is not available, local economic growth is “capped” based on the housing inventory Oakland Denver Los Angeles Sacramento Lake County Housing Needs Assessment | 17

HOUSING INVENTORY Oakland Denver Los Angeles Sacramento Lake County Housing Needs Assessment | 18

Housing Composition Total Housing Units (2017) | 4,470 | 29% Vacancy Rate (2017) 72% of housing in the County is Single Family Detached homes Units in Structure A large percentage is also mobile homes 1 Unit (Detached) 72% 1 Unit (Attached) to 4 Units 5% 5 Units or More 8% Mobile Home 16% Oakland Denver Los Angeles Sacramento Photo: coloradoguy.com Lake County Housing Needs Assessment | 19

Housing Age Housing by Year Built Leadville has a much older housing stock than the County overall, with 61% of units built before 1940 , and only 13% built since 1980 1,062 80 211 83 138 92 588 54 16 399 373 341 333 271 252 192 38 1939 or 1940-1949 1950-1959 1960-1969 1970-1979 1980-1989 1990-1999 2000-2009 2010-2013 Earlier Oakland Denver Los Angeles Sacramento Leadville Lake County Lake County Housing Needs Assessment | 20

Owners and Renters Leadville has a higher proportion of renters than Lake County, with 44% of housing units in the City being rented Lake County Leadville Of the 1,300 occupied housing Of the 3,200 occupied housing units in the City: units in the County: 56% are owner-occupied 63% are owner-occupied 44% are rented 37% are rented Oakland Denver Los Angeles Sacramento Lake County Housing Needs Assessment | 21

New Development Building Permits Planned Development Since 2011, there have been 140 There are several developments building permits for single family homes in or planned for the approval and 17 permits for mobile homes process, which could add up to 650 new units . An average of 22 new units/year Oakland Denver Los Angeles Sacramento Lake County Housing Needs Assessment | 22

Second Homes Many homes in Lake County are “second homes” – homes owned by someone with a permanent address outside of the County and not occupied year-round Vacancy Owner Location Overall housing vacancy in Lake 28% of properties in Lake County is 29% - an increase County are registered to addresses with a different from 24% in 2000 city from the home location Most of these are likely second homes Oakland Denver Los Angeles Sacramento Lake County Housing Needs Assessment | 23

Local Purchasers On average, 48% of home sales are to non-local buyers Local Buyer Out of Town Buyer 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Oakland Denver Los Angeles Sacramento 0% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: Lake County Assessor; Economic & Planning Systems Lake County Housing Needs Assessment | 24

MARKET TRENDS Oakland Denver Los Angeles Sacramento Lake County Housing Needs Assessment | 25