AIM/Material Japan Activities in 2002 Toshihiko Masui Maho - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

AIM/Material Japan Activities in 2002 Toshihiko Masui Maho Miyashita (Tokyo Institute of Technology) The 8th AIM International Workshop 14th March, 2003 National Institute for Environmental Studies

Progresses of AIM/Material in FY2002 � Structure (AIM/Material Japan) � Waste from stock and reuse : with Ms. Miyashita (TIT) � Reproduction of detailed waste flow � Simulation (AIM/Material Japan) � Reform of taxation in Japan � Simulation of environmental policies � Others: with Dr. Rana & Dr. Yang � Simple AIM/Material (for India Workshop) � Comparison analysis (India & China, not yet completed) � Introduction of natural assets: with Ms. Suwa (TIT) AIM/Material Japan 2 AIM, NIES

Background of AIM/Material Background of AIM/Material � Various environmental problems should be solved Various environmental problems should be solved � simultaneously. simultaneously. � CO CO 2 2 reduction, solid waste management, air pollution, water reduction, solid waste management, air pollution, water � management, ... management, ... � These problems ... trade These problems ... trade- -off/independent/concurrent off/independent/concurrent � � Various environmental protection activities can be Various environmental protection activities can be � projected. projected. � Which is the most effective? Which is the most effective? � � How much are direct/indirect impacts to economy and other How much are direct/indirect impacts to economy and other � environment? environment? ➜ Quantification of benefits from environmental policies Quantification of benefits from environmental policies ➜ including environmental industry/investment by using including environmental industry/investment by using environment- -economy (AIM/Material) model economy (AIM/Material) model environment � CO CO 2 2 reduction and solid waste reduction reduction and solid waste reduction � AIM/Material Japan 3 AIM, NIES

Overview of AIM/Material Japan Overview of AIM/Material Japan � Computable general equilibrium model � Japan � 1995 to 2010, year by year (recursive dynamic) � 41 sectors and 49 commodities � 18 waste types of industrial waste and 8 types of municipal waste � Environmental industry and environmental investment � Keep economic balance and material balance � Environmental constraints � CO 2 emissions reduction based on Kyoto Protocol � Reduction in quantity of final disposal of solid waste to half 2010/1997 proposed by government AIM/Material Japan 4 AIM, NIES

Basic structure of AIM/Material produced commodity pollution pollution abroad management waste recycle import CO 2 export production energy market sector intermediate CO 2 environmental env. capital Industry/investment energy labor intermediate CO 2 pollution capital waste labor energy household government final demand AIM/Material Japan 5 AIM, NIES

Progress in structure: (1) Waste from stock and reuse Purpose � Direct reuse of waste is effective environmental policy or not? � It seems to be effective to solve waste issues. � But, it seems to delay energy efficiency improvement. � In order to answer this question, following module is developed and integrated with AIM/Material production/consumption (AIM/Material) � stock (durable goods) � waste (Weibull distribution) � reuse / treatment AIM/Material Japan 6 AIM, NIES

Progress in structure: (1) Waste from stock and reuse Model Low energy efficiency Repair Production Reuse Stock in t-1 Reuse Waste (stock) Durable goods Household Stock in t Other treatment Municipal waste (flow) Stock in t+1 Waste management service Recycle Final disposal AIM/Material Waste generation model AIM/Material Japan 7 AIM, NIES

Progress in structure: (1) Waste from stock and reuse Waste generation model Total disposal rate:   α     t = − −     ( ) 1 F t β       total disposal rate: Weibull distribution total disposal rate: Weibull distribution total disposal rate: Weibull distribution 100% total disposal rate: Weibull distribution 100% 100% 100% 50% 50% 50% 50% 0% 0% t t+1 t+2 .... t+x-1 t+x 0% t+1 t+2 t+3 .... t+x t+x+1 equipment i consumed in t=t x=durable years 0% t t+1 t+2 .... t+x-1 t+x equipment i consumed in t=t+1 x=durable years t+1 t+2 t+3 .... t+x t+x+1 equipment j consumed in t=t x=durable years equipment j consumed in t=t+1 x=durable years AIM/Material Japan 8 AIM, NIES

Progress in structure: (1) Waste from stock and reuse Scenarios � Reference case � Reuse promotion scenarios � promotion of reuse in household small scale expansion of reuse � expansion of reuse in government large scale expansion of reuse � expansion of rental service � reduction of repair cost AIM/Material Japan 9 AIM, NIES

Progress in structure: (1) Waste from stock and reuse Simulation results: GDP change 2 0 1 5 1 0 e c i r 5 n p e y 5 s m a l l 0 l 9 i 9 b l a r g e 1 - 5 t a r e n t a l - 1 0 r e p a i r - 1 5 - 2 0 1 9 9 5 1 9 9 8 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 7 AIM/Material Japan 10 AIM, NIES

Progress in structure: (1) Waste from stock and reuse Simulation results: Municipal waste disposal change 2 0 0 0 0 - 2 0 0 0 - 4 0 0 0 n s m a l l o t - 6 0 0 0 l a r g e r e n t a l - 8 0 0 0 r e p a i r - 1 0 0 0 0 - 1 2 0 0 0 1 9 9 5 1 9 9 8 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 7 AIM/Material Japan 11 AIM, NIES

Progress in structure: (1) Waste from stock and reuse Simulation results: CO 2 emission change 1 6 0 1 4 0 1 2 0 1 0 0 8 0 C t s m a l l 6 0 M l a r g e 4 0 r e n t a l 2 0 0 r e p a i r - 2 0 - 4 0 1 9 9 51 9 9 71 9 9 92 0 0 1 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 9 AIM/Material Japan 12 AIM, NIES

Progress in structure: (1) Waste from stock and reuse Messages from simulation � Expansion of reuse will make quantity of municipal final disposal decrease. � CO 2 will increase in small expansion of reuse, because reuse delay energy efficiency improvement. � On the other hand, CO 2 will decrease in large amount of reuse, because economic structure itself will shift from manufacture to service industry such as repair. � Please contact Ms. Miyashita for more detail! AIM/Material Japan 13 AIM, NIES

Progress in structure : (2) Reproduction of detailed waste flow Additional flow recycle self treatment fin. disp. 18 industrial wastes int. man. recycle industrial waste man. dir. reuse production sector fin. dir. disp. disp. 8 municipal wastes int. man. recycle municipal waste man. dir. reuse sector 8 municipal fin. household dir. disp. wastes disp. AIM/Material Japan 14 AIM, NIES

Simulations :(1) Taxation reform in Japan Outline � From 2003, taxation to energy will be reformed as follows; [present] → [in 2007] (increase of Energy carbon price) 0 → � Steam coal: 700 ¥/ton (1065 ¥/tC) 720 → 1080 ¥/ton ( 490 ¥/tC) � Natural gas: 670 → 1080 ¥/ton ( 500 ¥/tC) � LPG: � Electricity: 0.445 → 0.375 ¥/kWh AIM/Material Japan 15 AIM, NIES

Simulations :(1) Taxation reform in Japan Results Year 1995 2000 2005 2010 0.00 -0.05 CO 2 Change [MtC/year] -0.10 -0.15 -0.20 -0.25 1% more rapid -0.30 2% more rapid -0.35 5% more rapid -0.40 “X% more rapid” means that by energy price increase, the related energy efficiency in new capital is changed from α %/year to α (1+X/100)%/year. AIM/Material Japan 16 AIM, NIES

Simulations :(2) Simulation of environmental policies Outline � Environmental constraints will decrease economic activity. � CO 2 reduction and solid waste disposal reduction � Appropriate environmental policy will recover economic losses. � environmental investment, technology change, taxation reform, preference change AIM/Material Japan 17 AIM, NIES

Simulations :(2) Simulation of environmental policies Result: GDP in reference case 600 Trillion yen at 1995 price 580 560 540 520 500 480 460 440 1995 2000 2005 2010 Year Actual values Calculated values AIM/Material Japan 18 AIM, NIES

Simulations :(2) Simulation of environmental policies Result: GDP loss by CO 2 and final disposal waste reduction Year 2000 2005 2010 0.0 -0.2 [tri. Yen at 1995 price] -0.4 GDP change -0.6 -0.8 0.5% of GDP -1.0 -1.2 -1.4 AIM/Material Japan 19 AIM, NIES

Simulations :(2) Simulation of environmental policies Result: GDP recovery by environmental investment Year 2000 2005 2010 0.0 -0.2 [tri. Yen at 1995 price] GDP loss GDP loss -0.4 GDP change -0.6 -0.8 -1.0 Mitigation by env. Industry -1.2 and investment -1.4 AIM/Material Japan 20 AIM, NIES

Simulations :(2) Simulation of environmental policies Result: GDP recovery by technology improvement Year 2000 2005 2010 0.0 GDP loss GDP loss -0.2 [tri. Yen at 1995 price] -0.4 GDP change -0.6 -0.8 Mitigation by technology -1.0 improvement -1.2 -1.4 AIM/Material Japan 21 AIM, NIES