Ecologic Institute ecologic.eu The Paris Rulebook – A small step or a big leap? Cairo, 18 March 2019 Arne Riedel
Ecologic Institute ecologic.eu Paris Rulebook takeaway Main point: There is a rulebook! Most aspects of the Paris Agreement have been made operational Parties to the Paris Agreement now need to increase ambition and deliver their contributions Paris Rulebook 18 March 2019 2
Ecologic Institute ecologic.eu International climate negotiations: timeline 1988 1992 1994 1997 2005 2009 2011 2015 2018 Kyoto Durban Copen- IPCC UNFCCC UNFCCC KP in Katowice Paris Protocol mandate hagen force Rulebook est. adopted in force adopted & KP CP2 Paris Rulebook 18 March 2019 3
Ecologic Institute ecologic.eu Source: Bodle/Donat/Duwe, Assessment of the Paris Agreement, January 2016, p. 7 Paris Rulebook 18 March 2019 4
Ecologic Institute ecologic.eu Paris Rulebook adopted in December 2018 – a big leap or a small step? Paris Rulebook 18 March 2019 5
Ecologic Institute Progress during COP24 ecologic.eu Source: CarbonBrief, https://www.carbonbrief.org/cop24-key-outcomes-agreed-at-the-un-climate-talks-in-katowice Paris Rulebook 18 March 2019 6
Ecologic Institute Paris Rulebook #1 ecologic.eu (19 decisions, 133 pages) NDCs Adaptation Finance (4 decisions) (3 decisions) (3 decisions) • NDC rules on • Guidance on • Information to be content adaptation provided ex-ante • NDC Registry communications (Art. 9.5) • Adaptation • Adaptation Fund • Common Registry • New collective timeframes • Adaptation and (continues) quantified goal • Forum on developing on finance countries Response Measures Paris Rulebook 18 March 2019 7
Ecologic Institute Paris Rulebook #2 ecologic.eu Transparency Global Stocktake Compliance (1 decision) (1 decision) (1 decision) • Modalities, Procedures • Modalities of • Modalities and and Guidelines (MPG) for the GST , incl. Procedures for the transparency framework, incl. on • Information the Art. 15 • Biennial transparency Committee collection and reports • Initiation • Technical Expert preparation Reviews • Technical • Measures • Facilitative, multilateral consideration of Assessment • Systemic progress • Consideration issues • Superseding of the previous Monitoring, of outputs Reporting and • Sources of input Verification System (under UNFCCC) for the GST • National Inventory Reports Paris Rulebook 18 March 2019 8
Where are we? Ecologic Institute ecologic.eu Paris Rulebook 18 March 2019 9
Ecologic Institute ecologic.eu How do we get there? (cycle of nationally determined contributions, NDCs) Paris Rulebook 18 March 2019 10
Ecologic Institute ecologic.eu In the room: negotiations Source: IISD Paris Rulebook 18 March 2019 11
Ecologic Institute ecologic.eu Transparency Framework: Individual Parties • One set of rules for all Parties, flexibility where needed • Rulebook: Set of reporting requirements and review • Biannual transparency reports by all Parties • Technical Expert Review (by teams) • Facilitative multilateral consideration of progress (FMCP) Reporting Review FMCP Paris Rulebook 18 March 2019 12
Ecologic Institute ecologic.eu Global Stocktake: Collective Progress • 1st round in 2023, every 5 years, inform future NDCs • Rulebook: Stocktake of the long-term goals or more? • Cutting emissions • Adapting to climate change • Providing climate finance • Additional topics? Information Technical Consideration collection assessment of outputs Paris Rulebook 18 March 2019 13
Ecologic Institute ecologic.eu „Art. 15 Committee “: Making it work • Expert body, 12 members, different disciplines and regions • Rulebook: Designing a new body for the Paris Agreement • What does it cover? • How does it start its work? • What can it do/say? Outputs Initiation Procedures „Will“ initiate Dialogues, By Party or Action Plans, vs. by Committee May initiate Findings of fact Paris Rulebook 18 March 2019 14
Ecologic Institute ecologic.eu In the room: Art. 15 negotiations Source: IISD Paris Rulebook 18 March 2019 15
Ecologic Institute ecologic.eu What is coming up next? 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Second round 1st Global Third round of NDCs of NDCs Stocktake Complete Rulebook (e.g. markets) New financial Beginn commitments exchange on post-2025 finance goal Paris Rulebook 18 March 2019 16
Ecologic Institute ecologic.eu Market Mechanisms unresolved yet Source: CarbonBrief, https://www.carbonbrief.org/cop24-key-outcomes-agreed-at-the- un-climate-talks-in-katowice Paris Rulebook 18 March 2019 17
Ecologic Institute ecologic.eu German Plans on Climate Action - 40% - 55% - 80% - 95%? Source: Commission on „Growth, structural change and employment “ – final report, p .17, online at https://www.kommission- wsb.de/WSB/Redaktion/DE/Downloads/abschlussbericht-kommission-wachstum-strukturwandel-und-beschaeftigung.pdf. Paris Rulebook 18 March 2019 18
Ecologic Institute ecologic.eu German Plans on Coal Phaseout • Commission for growth, structural transition and employment • Key recommendations: • 4 chairs and 25 members, incl. utilities, industry, unions, civil society • Phasing out until 2038 • Also: regional representatives and • Stepwise approach Members of Parliament • Program of measures for the • Political initiative began in 2018, final most affected regions report in January 2019 • Legislative implementation still required Source: Handelsblatt, „Der Ausstieg aus der Kohle wird für Unternehmen und Steuerzahler teuer“, 27.01.2019, online at : https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/deutschland/kohlekommission-der-ausstieg-aus-der-kohle-wird-fuer-unternehmen-und- steuerzahler-teuer/23909538.html Paris Rulebook 18 March 2019 19
Ecologic Institute ecologic.eu Civil Society Engagement Source: Berliner Zeitung, 15.03.2019, https://www.berliner-zeitung.deberlin-fridays-for-future--viel-mehr-schueler-als-erwartet- demonstrieren-in-berlin-32225166 Paris Rulebook 18 March 2019 20
Ecologic Institute ecologic.eu Once more: Paris Rulebook takeaway Main point: There is one! Most aspects of the Paris Agreement have been made operational Parties to the Paris Agreement now need to deliver Paris Rulebook 18 March 2019 21
Ecologic Institute ecologic.eu Topics for exchange The next round of NDCs in 2020: Where are Germany, the EU and Egypt? How can civil society contribute to an ambitious climate policy? Paris Rulebook 18 March 2019 22
Ecologic Institute ecologic.eu Thank you very much! Ecologic Institute Pfalzburger Str. 43/44 10717 Berlin Germany Tel. +49 (30) 86880-0 ecologic.eu Paris Rulebook 18 March 2019 23
Ecologic Institute ecologic.eu EU climate targets - 20% until 2020 - 40% until 2030 update currently discussed up to 55% (Europ. Parl.) Emission Trading Sectors and “non -ETS- sectors” Paris Rulebook 18 March 2019 24
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