Recent Results of the International Technology Roadmap for Photovoltaics (ITRPV) 8 th Edition, March 2017 A. Metz, M. Fischer, J. Trube PV seminar at UNSW Sydney, March 23 rd , 2017 Source: www.siemens.com/presse VDMA | ITRPV 2017 Page 1 | 15 March 2017
Outline 1. ITRPV Introduction 2. PV Learning Curve and Cost Considerations ITRPV – Results 2016 3. - Wafer - Materials, Processes, Products - Cell - Materials, Processes, Products - Module - Materials, Processes, Products - Systems 4. Summary and Outlook VDMA | Author ITRPV 2017 Page 2 | 15 March 2017
Outline 1. ITRPV Introduction 2. PV Learning Curve and Cost Considerations ITRPV – Results 2016 3. - Wafer - Materials, Processes, Products - Cell - Materials, Processes, Products - Module - Materials, Processes, Products - Systems 4. Summary and Outlook VDMA | Author ITRPV 2017 Page 3 | 15 March 2017
ITRPV – Methodology Working group today includes 40 contributors from Asia, Europe, and US SILICON CRYSTAL. WAFER CELL MODULE SYSTEM Participating Independent data Review of data Next companies collection / processing Preparation of publication ITRPV by VDMA regional chairs edition Chairs EU Chairs PRC Chairs TW Chairs US Photovoltaic Equipment Parameters in main areas are discussed Diagrams of median values | Author ITRPV 2017 VDMA Page 4 | 15 March 2017
ITRPV 8 th Edition 2017 – some statistics Review ITRPV predictions Silver amount per cell 0,45 0,4 8 th 7 th Edition 0,35 0,3 silver per cell [g/cell] 0,25 Contributors 40 33 0,2 0,15 Figures 60 50 0,1 ITRPV 2017 0,05 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 1. Edition 2. Edition 3. Edition 4. Edition 5. Edition 6. Edition 7. Edition 8. Edition Prediction quality since 2009: Wafer thickness (multi) 200 180 Silver consumption trend well predicted and realized 160 (Silver availability depends on world market ) 140 120 µm 100 Wafer thickness trend bad predicted and no progress 80 ITRPV 2017 60 (Poly-Si price depends on PV market development) 40 20 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 1. Edition 2. Edition 3. Edition 4. Edition 5. Edition 6. Edition 7. Edition 8. Edition VDMA | ITRPV 2017 Page 5 | 15 March 2017
Outline 1. ITRPV Introduction 2. PV Learning Curve and Cost Considerations ITRPV – Results 2016 3. - Wafer - Materials, Processes, Products - Cell - Materials, Processes, Products - Module - Materials, Processes, Products - Systems 4. Summary and Outlook VDMA | ITRPV 2017 Page 6 | 15 March 2017
PV learning Curve Learning curve for module price as a function of cumutative shipments Shipments /avg. price at years end: 10 -1 10 0 10 1 10 2 10 3 10 4 10 5 10 6 10 7 average module sales price [USD 2016/Wp] 2016: 75 GWp / 0.37 US$/Wp 100 100 ITRPV 2017 ≈ 308 GWp o/a shipment: ≈ 300 GWp o/a installation: 10 10 300 GWp landmark was passed! 2012 historic price data LR 21.5% (1976 …. 2016) LR 22.5 % 1 1 2011 dramatic price drop due to market situation Comparable to 2011/2012, but faster 12 / 2016 300GWp 0.1 0.1 10 -1 10 0 10 1 10 2 10 3 10 4 10 5 10 6 10 7 cumulative PV module shipments [MW] VDMA | Author ITRPV 2017 Page 7 | 15 March 2017
Module price break down [US$/Wp] Price considerations 1.59 US$ 1,8 1,6 ITRPV 2017 Module 1,4 0,395 Module price (US$/Wp) Cell Learning curve for module price as a function of cumutative shipments 1,2 Wafer 0,32 1 Poly Si 1,8 0.58 US$ Module 1,7 0,8 Module 25% Module ITRPV 2017 37% 1,6 42% 0.37 US$ 0,462 0,6 1,5 Cell 20% 1,4 0,24 Cell 23% Cell 23% 0,4 1,3 Wafer 29% 0,138 1,2 0,135 Wafer 16% 0,413 0,2 0,086 Wafer 23% 1,1 0,13 Spot Pricing [USD/Wp] 0,058 Poly Si 26% 1,0 Poly Si 24% 0,087 0,072 Poly Si 12% 0 0,9 01_2011 01_2016 01_2017 share 01_2011 share 01_2016 share 01_2017 0,8 reduction 01/2011 01/2016: ≈ 64 % 0,7 0,6 reduction 01/2016 01/2017: ≈ 36 % 0,5 0,4 (reduction 01/2011 01/2012: ≈ 40 %) 0,3 0,2 Dramatic price drop during 2 nd half of 2016 0,1 0,0 Market driven drop Silicon Multi Wafer Multi Cell Multi Module Poly-Si share increased again High pressure on module manufacturers VDMA | Author ITRPV 2017 Page 8 | 15 March 2017
Outline 1. ITRPV Introduction 2. PV Learning Curve and Cost Considerations ITRPV – Results 2016 3. - Si / Wafer - Materials, Processes, Products - Cell - Materials, Processes, Products - Module - Materials, Processes, Products - Systems 4. Summary and Outlook VDMA | Author ITRPV 2017 Page 9 | 15 March 2017
Silicon – Materials: Poly Si Feedstock Technology Poly Si price trend: Trend: Share of poly-Si feedstock technology E 2012: 20 US$/kg 100% 02/ 2017: FBR 10% 02/ 2016: ≈16 US$/kg 90% ≈14 US$/kg 80% IHS Markit data oversupply situation of 2016 relieved 70% 60% Siemens process will remain mainstream 50% FBR shows potential for cost reduction Siemens 40% FBR share will be increased moderately 86% w/ new capacity ITRPV 2017 30% (2016 values in line w/ IHS Markit) 20% 10% Other technologies (umg, epi growth, ..) 0% Not yet mature but available IHS 2016 2016 2017 2019 2021 2024 2027 Siemens FBR other VDMA | Author ITRPV 2017 Page 10 | 15 March 2017
Wafer – Processes: wafering technology (1) Trend: Kerf loss / TTV Trend: throughput crystallization/ wafering 150% 160 ITRPV 2017 140% 140 130% 120 120% 100 110% [µm] 80 ITRPV 2017 100% 60 90% 2016 2017 2019 2021 2024 2027 crystal growth per tool (mc-Si, mono-like, HPM) slurry based wire sawing 40 relative troughput CCz[kg/h]/Cz(kg/h] diamond wire based 1.400 ITRPV 2017 20 1.200 0 1.000 2016 2017 2019 2021 2024 2027 Kerf loss for slurry-based wire sawing [µm] Kerf loss for diamond wire sawing [µm] 800 Gen 8 [kg] TTV for slurry-based wire sawing [µm] TTV for diamond wire sawing [µm] Gen 7 600 diamond wire sawing advantage : Gen 6 400 enable faster kerf reduction 200 No big change in thickness variation is expected 0 2016 2017 2019 2021 2024 2027 mc-Si mono-Si Throughput increase in crystallization/wafering will continue VDMA | Author ITRPV 2017 Page 11 | 15 March 2017
Wafer – Processes: wafering technology (2) For mono-Si For mc-Si 100% 100% 90% 90% 80% 80% 70% 70% 60% 60% 50% 50% 40% 40% 30% 30% ITRPV 2017 ITRPV 2017 20% 20% 10% 10% 0% 0% 2016 2017 2019 2021 2024 2027 2016 2017 2019 2021 2024 2027 slurry based electroplated diamonds resin bond diamonds other slurry based electroplated diamonds resin bond diamonds other diamond wire wafering now mainstream for mono-Si For mc-Si change to diamond wire is ongoing Throughut 2x – 3x faster than slurry based main challenge: texturing VDMA | Author ITRPV 2017 Page 12 | 15 March 2017
Wafer – Processes: texturing of mc-Si wafers Trend: market share of mc-Si texturing technologies 100% • Acidic texturing is: 90% mature and high throughput process 80% changes in “standard” will apear 70% 60% • Next step: 50% wet nano texturing, esp. for diamond wire 40% • RIE share is expected to increase “but” 30% ITRPV 2017 no cost efficient alternative 20% 10% 0% 2016 2017 2019 2021 2024 2027 standard acidic etching Wet Nano-texture technology Reactive Ion Etching (RIE) Wet processing remains mainstream in mc-Si texturing VDMA | Author ITRPV 2017 Page 13 | 15 March 2017
Wafer – Product: Wafer thickness trend Still no progress in mc-Si thickness reduction 190 Waferthickness [µm] 180 190 170 180 170 160 160 150 150 140 [µm] 130 140 120 2009 2015 2017 110 130 100 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 120 ITRPV Edition 110 180 µm mc-Si preferred thickness since 2009 100 90 Thickness reduction expected to start for mono-Si 2016 2017 2019 2021 2024 2027 • cost reduction potential Wafer thickness multi Wafer thickness mono limit of cell thickness in future modul technology • diamond wire will support New module technologies should enable Mono-Si wafer: thickness reduction starts thickness reduction VDMA | Author ITRPV 2017
Wafer – Product: market share of material types Trend: share of c-Si material types 100% 90% mono 80% casted-Si domination is not for ever: Trend of last years will continue 70% IHS Markit data 60% • Casting technology: HP mc-Si will replace standard mc-Si 50% no “come back” of mono -like expected 40% multi 30% • Mono technology: ITRPV 2017 n-type material share will increase 20% n- + p-type market share today ≈ 35% 10% (2016 values are in line w/ IHS Markit) 0% IHS 2016 2016 2017 2019 2021 2024 2027 • p-type material is expected to stay dominant p-type mc p-type HPmc p-type monolike p-type mono n-type mono mainly due to progress in LID regeneration Casted material is still dominating today with > 60% Mono share is expected to increase (driven by n-type) | Author ITRPV 2017 VDMA | ITRPV 2017 Page 15 | 15 March 2017
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