A foresight exercise into The urban situation is broadly different - PDF document

Basic assumptions A foresight exercise into The urban situation is broadly different in Europe and on other continents. urban mobility To understand urban mobility, observe its evolution in time. This evolution can be seen as the product of two competing movements, provoked or stimulated by different factors. At a given point of time, each city has its own combination of these Nicole Muhlrad two movements, depending on the prevailing factors and the Emeritus researcher prevailing policies. Road Safety consultant Any such a combination is transitory, which generates some specific problems. Basic assumptions Consequences for the urban environment MOUVEMENT 1 MOUVEMENT 2 MOUVEMENT 1 MOUVEMENT 2 Urban sprawl social segregation Densification of habitat More space for motorized traffic, Balanced space allocation to Growth of individual Control and/or decrease of individual motorized and non- Destruction of historical and motorized traffic … to the urban individual motorized motorized transport, to public patrimonial sites transport modes and to urban Lengthening of car trips expense of the ancient traffic , development of public activities other than transport Limitation of public transport modes existing before cars transport networks, of Moderation of speeds to make space Noise and pollution sharing feasible and safe and motorcycles were pedestrian and of bicycle Sprawling» parkin g areas and Limitation of opportunities for car invented and manufactured networks, speed moderation, disappearance of « cosy » urban ownership spaces (pedestrians and, later, attention to quality of public Minimizing noise and pollution Creation of suburban commercial space. bicycles). centres destruction of small trades and neighbourhood shops .

Effects on safety and security The main contributing factors MOUVEMENT 1 MOUVEMENT 2 MOUVEMENT 1 MOUVEMENT 2 Endangered non-motorized road Reduced frequency and severity of all Technology and industry (developing Large scale environmental issues and producing cars and motorcycles) users whose needs cannot be met crashes (due to lower speeds and (global warming). shorter exposure) Economic growth Increasing exposure of drivers for the Heath issues (noise and pollution) Democracy (right of ownership) same level of accessibility High levels of perceived (and Rising prices of petrol (scarcity, probably real) security in public Rural exodus Low levels of perceived (and probably speculation, tax policies) spaces where people interact real) security for non-motorized road Social inequalities and status Technology and industry (developing (prefering effortless mobility users in traffic areas 2 alternative less-polluting collective n t e m Cheap petrol v e o e s Low security levels in the less M c i and intermediate transport modes) f l i o o s p o r i c o t b l p s accessible neighbourhoods (further m u u p o h e u t g r t o n o f h e i t z from activity centres). n e w i t i o e c N i v o f c t n a o e t i b a n i p c a i c r t p a n d a The situation now What evolution do we want? Movement 1 pre-dates Movement 2 except in some planned urban developments Accelerating movement 2 through research, policy and activism. It is (New Towns, SCAFT guidelines, etc.). Movement 2 has mostly evolved to correct crucial because: the unwanted effects of Movement 1 while maintaining accessibility. � global warming is proved and progressing fast Still mainly in movement 1 : fast developing cities (Delhi, Beijing, etc.). Older cities where low petrol prices and availability of space have facilitated large scale urban � Awareness of health issues related to pollution and noise is growing sprawl (Los Angeles). � petroleum products are going to become scarcer and scarcer (sooner Now mainly in movement 2 : cities in countries where strong policies have been implemented (for instance, the Netherlands, Sweden, etc.). rather than later). In-between : most European cities where strong factors push back to Movement 1 Caring for ageing and/or physically challenged citizens to help them and factors for movement 2 are slowly getting stronger. The present state is continue with a useful and fulfilling life. unbalanced and local policies unsteady. A n a g e i n g p o p u l a t i o n r e q u i r e s e r e g o n o m n v i r o n i c m e n t a n d m o d e s o f t r a n o s p o r t r d e r n i n o t t o k e e p t h e c i t i z e n s m o b i l e

What is currently happening? What about safety ? Industry and research focus on new technologies in order to sell more cars : electric cars, self driving cars. Expected safety effects of self-driving cars rely on dubious hypothesis None of these will contribute to slowing global warming and decreasing ( human error can be in programming softwares as much as on the road! ). consumption of petrol (except perhaps electric cars…. if they can be In practice, the first years of introduction of seld-driving cars in traffic will autonomous on longer distances and electricity is produced through be a real-life testing period. nuclear power ). Intensive consumption of rare metals for electronics is creating new (political and environmental) problems. Industry is putting on the market new motorized « toys » (design scooters, Pushing for new types of cars should increase demand for space powered monocycles, etc.) solely for ludic purposes. Their safety effects allocation to individual motorized transport Return to Movement 1. have not been tested. If Movement 1 starts snowballing, sizeable effects on the climate can be expected. If we don’t engage further in Movement 2, we risk the « Doom scenario » described in PQN (increased economic and spatial inequalities, increased social unrest, local violence and world-wide terrorism). How can we push Movement 2? Implications for urban planning policies Urban planning policies to densify multi-function areas and avoid Re-defining the urban role of individual motorized transport, optimizing the uncontrolled sprawl of residential neighbourhoods ( necessary to make conditions for this role to be fulfilled and discouraging all other usage. mobility policies possible ), up-grade quality of urban public space and life Priority space allocation to the less polluting modes and to public amenities ( essential to make densification and a switch towards collective transport. transport acceptable ). Policies based on mobility, safety and health for all (inclusive of elderly Make cities greener (more acceptable, less polluted, healthier) : a and impaired citizens). condition to be included in urban densification and in public space To counteract some factors at work, allocation. Focussing research and industry on new less-polluting individual and need for better politicians and for collective transport modes in order to provide a whole range of increased citizens’ involvement ! alternatives to car and motorcycle mobility, including mobility of the most vulnerable road users.