A Basic Presentation on Strategic Foresight Dr. Chalette Renee Griffin, SHRM-CP, Foresight For The New Age Recruiter
Workshop Agenda Objective • Introduce the term ‘Strategic Foresight’ to an audience who have never heard of the term. • Provide a basic overview of how strategic foresight can improve decision-making. Foresight for the New Age Recruiter https://www.foresight-for-the-new-age-recruiter.com
What is Strategic Foresight? Strategic Foresight is the practice of creating a functional view of the future, or future events and possibilities, in such a way as to take full advantage of opportunities, as well as to prepare for any possible adversity Source: . http://www.wisegeek.com/what-is-strategic-foresight.htm Foresight for the New Age Recruiter https://www.foresight-for-the-new-age-recruiter.com
What is Strategic Foresight? Strategic Foresight enables organizations to anticipate many of the risk and opportunities that could confront them in the future Foresight for the New Age Recruiter https://www.foresight-for-the-new-age-recruiter.com
Strategic Foresight Compares “What the organization would like to see happen” ( desired/preferred future) WITH “What can happen” ( alternative future ) Foresight for the New Age Recruiter https://www.foresight-for-the-new-age-recruiter.com
The Goal of Strategic Foresight To make better, more informed decisions in the present …in order to... Foresight for the New Age Recruiter https://www.foresight-for-the-new-age-recruiter.com
The Goal of Strategic Foresight Anticipate what’s coming…. Foresight for the New Age Recruiter https://www.foresight-for-the-new-age-recruiter.com
What Strategic Foresight Is Not… • Fortune Telling • Wishful Thinking • Predicting what you want to hear • Producing a “correct future” • Predicting exactly what will happen • Strategic Foresight uses forecasting to envision a set of alternative futures to consider Foresight for the New Age Recruiter https://www.foresight-for-the-new-age-recruiter.com
What is the value of Strategic Foresight? Desired/Preferred Future vs. Alternative Future • Organizations which utilize strategic foresight are able to anticipate and respond to change in a timely fashion which gives them a competitive advantage over organizations who do not utilize strategic foresight. • The inability of organizations to deal with change quickly or to be proactive in the face of change has led to volatility of companies, sectors and shareholder value. Foresight for the New Age Recruiter https://www.foresight-for-the-new-age-recruiter.com
Who uses Strategic Foresight? Depletion of Social Security by 2037 • The government uses strategic foresight to determine whether the current rate and pace social security benefits will be depleted. The government is looking at external trends such as how many people are working verses how many are retiring, the creation of jobs and other external factors to determine if there’s a potential problem that is coming. Now that we know the depletion of social security is a threat to our desired future, we have the power in the present to make some changes( i.e., policy, creating jobs, etc.,). Foresight for the New Age Recruiter https://www.foresight-for-the-new-age-recruiter.com
Lack of Strategic Foresight Costly and Deadly • • World Trade Towers Attack on September 11, 2001 • “U.S. Government’s “failure” to imagine the possible” “No one could have imagined them taking a plane, slamming it into the Pentagon … into the World Trade Center, using planes as missiles." -Former Secretary of State – Condoleeza Rice testimony to 9/11 Commission • The outcome of 9/11 was considered an “alternative future” which no one wanted to even believe could happen. Foresight for the New Age Recruiter https://www.foresight-for-the-new-age-recruiter.com
References ABC News(2011). CBO Projects Social Security Will Be Drained By 2037: Do You Think The Next Generation Will See a Solvent Social Security System? • http://abcnews.go.com/US/cbo-projects-social-security-drained-2037-generation-solvent/story?id=12776481 Bell, W., (1997). The Purpose of Futures Studies. The Futurist, 42-45 • Chermack, T.J., (2011). Scenario Planning in Organizations. San Francisco, CA: Berrett-Koehler. • Chermack, T. J. (2009, 5 November). Scenario planning as a strategic learning system. In Legend Series, Part III. Seoul, Korea: Global HR Forum 2009. Retrieved from • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VxPsrHwhxzw Clemens, R. (2009). Environmental scanning and scenario planning: A 12 month perspective on applying the viable systems model to developing public sector • foresight. Systemic Practice and Action Research, 22 (4), 249-274. Foreign Policy.com. “ A Failure to Imagine the Worst”. http://foreignpolicy.com/2010/01/22/a-failure-to-imagine-the-worst/ • Hines, A. (2006, September/October). Strategic foresight: The state of the art. Futurist, 40 (5), 18-21 • Inayatullah, S., (2008). Six Pillars: futures thinking for transforming. Foresight, 10(1), 4-21 • Marsh, N., et al. (2002) "Why Strategic Foresight? Extract from Strategic Foresight-The Power of Standing in the Future. • Ralston, B., & Wilson, I. (2006). Scan™: Radar for signals of change. In The scenario-planning handbook (pp. 245-257). Mason, OH: South-Western • The National Intelligence Council( 2008). The Global Trends Report 2025: A Transformed World . • What is Strategic Foresight. http://www.wisegeek.com/what-is-strategic-foresight.htm • Foresight for the New Age Recruiter https://www.foresight-for-the-new-age-recruiter.com
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