Army 2040 Seminar A Methodology to Address Capability Development in an Uncertain Future Bruce Chapman Peter Gizewski Defence Research Development Canada/Centre for Operational Research and Analysis
Acknowledgement Acknowledgment must be given to Regan Reshke and LCol Chris Rankin for the use of portions of their presentations. 1
Presentation Introduction Capability Development in the Canadian Army Conceiving the Future Army Army 2040 Seminars Conclusion 2 2
The Canadian Army Land The Canadian Army Land Warfare Centre (CALWC) Warfare Centre (CALWC) advises the Commander advises the Commander Canadian Army (Comd Canadian Army (Comd CA) on the future security CA) on the future security environment, the environment, the capabilities that will be capabilities that will be required to operate in required to operate in that environment and that environment and alternative concepts and alternative concepts and technologies to achieve technologies to achieve the required capabilities. the required capabilities. 3
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Capability FSE Future Tomorrow Today Capability Objective Develop Towards Future Capabilities +10 years +4 +25 years Time Inform 7
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Those were the ideas they ideas were looking for… 12
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Bureaucracy 17
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Discipline 28
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Foresight is the process of preparing for the future. 30
10. Renew 1. Identify focal 9. Communicate issue and timeframe 8. Implications 2. Explore and options external world 3. Determine 7. uncertainties Test/assess and their polarities 6. Write 4. Impact and alternate uncertainty futures analysis 5. Develop alternate future frameworks 31
Land Capability Development Continuum Conceive Design Build Manage ACDB ACDB APB Capability Development Force Management Concept Development Capability Design Capability Integration Force Management Operating Selected Integrates the Manages the concepts are capability capability daily operation conceived and requirements components to of the Land translated into are translated realize the Force in keeping capability into validated implementation with the requirements. designs for of the Managed force capabilities. Readiness employment – Program. doctrine and structures. ACDB = Army Capability Development Board 32 32 APB = Army Programme Board
10. Renew 1. Identify focal 9. Communicate issue and timeframe 8. Implications 2. Explore and options external world 3. Determine 7. uncertainties Test/assess and their polarities 6. Write 4. Impact and alternate uncertainty futures analysis 5. Develop alternate future frameworks 34
1. Focal Issue and Time Frame Army 2040 aim is to establish a foundation for strategic dialogue based on key areas where Army senior leadership should focus attention today in order to remain relevant in 2040. 35
2. Explore External World (Environmental Scanning) Broad based assessment of the future landscape out to 2040 to identify defence and security implications for the Army Researched eight domains considering trends, drivers, shocks and key uncertainties: Physical (environmental) Social and political Science and technology Economic Legal Security Six months duration with essays completed in each domain. 36
2. Explore External World (con’t) (Environmental Scanning) Consider: Trends - discernable patterns of change; Drivers - factors that directly influence or cause change; Shocks - high impact low probability events; and Key Uncertainties - unknowns and controversies to be clarified in the future. Emphasize social as well as technological. 37
3. Determine Uncertainties and their Polarities (Futures Wheel) Futures Wheel methodology is one of the most common methods among futurists A way of organizing thinking and questioning about the future - a kind of structured brainstorming Designed to show complex interrelationships between drivers Flexible and relatively easy and straightforward to use 38
3. Determine Uncertainties and their Polarities Impact of age & demographics on military composition • Energy Security • Exponential Technology Growth • Human/Social response to technology • Expansion of operating environments • Global Environmental Change • Globalization • Conflicting / Shifting Identities • Shifting Power Balance • Resource Security • Distribution of Wealth • Weapons Proliferation • 39
3. Determine Uncertainties and their Polarities Impact of age & demographics on military composition – Older vs. younger through • immigration Energy Security – Sustainable vs. unsustainable • Exponential Technology Growth – Set the pace vs. fall behind • Human/Social response to technology – Reject technology vs. embrace technology • Expansion of operating environments – defensive capability vs. exploitation • Global Environmental Change – crisis reaction vs. proactive action • Globalization – acceleration vs. deceleration • Conflicting / Shifting Identities – global community vs. fragmentation • Shifting Power Balance – cooperative: less friction vs. competitive: more friction • Resource Security – sustainable supply vs. unsustainable supply • Distribution of Wealth – uneven vs. even • Weapons Proliferation – disarmament vs. proliferation • 40
4. Impact and Uncertainty Analysis Shock Environmental 5 3 6 Change Energy High 9 10 2 Impact Security 1 7 4 1. Demographics 2. Energy Security 3. Exponential Technology Growth 11 12 8 Mod 4. Social Response to Technology 5. Expansion of Operating Environs 6. Global Environmental Change 7. Globalization 8. Conflicting / Shifting Identities 9. Shifting Power balance 10. Resource security Low 11. Distribution of wealth 12. Weapons proliferation Low Moderate High Uncertainty 41
5. Develop Alternative Future Framework (Energy & Environment) Sustainable – Supply Exceeds Demand Materialism High Octane Crisis Reaction Proactive Action Energy Gone Mad Green World Environment & Climate Global Recyclable Quagmire Society Unsustainable – Demand Exceeds Supply 42
6. Write Alternate Futures 6. Write Alternative High-Octane, Global Materialism Recyclable Futures Assumptions Green Quagmire Gone MAD Society Survival Main Goal Prosperity Survival Material Gain Chief Means Cooperation Self-Help Self-Help Cooperation World is a When world World a jungle – producer & We sink or swim Attitudes prospers – I look out for No. consumer. I together. prosper. 1 – or die. want more. Concept of Broad Narrow Narrow Broad Self-Interest Concert of Late Pre WW I Late Roman Pre- Rough Europe, Early & II, Middle East Empire, Pre & Westphalian Analogies Post WWI & II 56, 67, 73 Post 9/11 System 43
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Alternative futures speculate on what might happen in the future 45
Future 1 – Dark Side of Exclusivity Future 2 – Deceptive Stability Future 3 – Clash of Modernities Future 4 – New Power Politics Strategic Surprises – The Challenge of Disruption 46
An alternative future should not be confused with a prediction of the future 47
Army 2040: First Look Table of Contents Introduction Methodology Essays Science and Technology Social Political Economy Legal Physical Military Human Dimension Shocks or Wild Cards Alternate Futures Conclusion Further Research 48
10. Renew 1. Identify focal 9. Communicate issue and timeframe 8. Implications 2. Explore and options external world 3. Determine 7. uncertainties Test/assess and their polarities 6. Write 4. Impact and alternate uncertainty futures analysis 5. Develop alternate future frameworks 49
7. Test and Assess Four seminar wargames are being conducted to consider: Security implications for Canada and possible missions and tasks for the Canadian Army in each particular Alternate Future. Characteristics of the Canadian Army in each particular Alternate Future Capabilities required by the Canadian Army in each particular Alternate Future To date two of four wargames have been conducted Materialism Gone Mad – 26-30 November 2012 High-Octane Green – 10-14 June 2013 Global Quagmire – Fall 2013 Recyclable Society – Winter 2013 50
Activities 51
IML Connector 52
Sample Results – Missions and Tasks Materialism Gone Mad High Octane Green CSEC = Communications Security Establishment Canada CSIS = Canadian Security Intelligence Service RCMP = Royal Canadian Mounted Police PSC = Public Service Commission NEO = Non-Combatant Evacuation Operation COIN =Counter Insurgency MCO = Major Combat Operations 53 PSO = Peace Support Operations
8. Implications & Options Capabilities within each alternative future will be measured against Land Operations 2021 in order to highlight gaps requiring further evaluation and development. 54
9. Communicate 55
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