AR.ChesleyPaisleyArea(Obwdsb.on.ca Narne of Author: Patrick Kelly Name of lnterested Party: Patrick Kelly Address: 536 Oueen Street South P. O. Box 190, Paisley, Ontario. NOG 2N0 Telephone Number: 5{9-3s3-5697 School to Which Submission Applies: Paisley Central School The Initial Staff Report AR-2016.17-0I set down certain aszumptions relating to Paisley Central School. Sohool en¡olment ra'as projected to decline from 138 students to 109 over the next i0 yeârs. These figures were derived from the V/atson.repon originally comploted iu 20T312014 and released May 14, 2014. The report identified a school with declinfurg errolment, no prospects for significaflt gro$'th" and a utilization percentage falling to half the Provincial aver:ageby2;025. On December 3, 2015, Bruce Power formally an¡rounced ån agreement, in partnership with the Province, that would result in a staged refi¡rbishment of six units at their faciliff near Tirarton. Consfruction would extend from 2020 to 2033. Increased workforce was projected to be approximatety 5000 exha jobs on the Bruce Power site duing the refu¡bishrnent project Ttris anfroLmcÊment effectiveiy stood a-ll of the Watson assumptions on their et, eqpecially in the RA02 and R-4,04 areas where tlte bulk of the new hires could be errpected to reside. The addition of ¿ work force of this size, presuruably should havc rcsulted in cnormous shifts irt the projectiorts with respêct to Kincardine, Port Elgln and Southampton area schools, and also those in the faisle¡ Chesley and intand æeas in closo proximity to the Bruce Powe¡ siæ. G'ranted, some of the hirings would be of short duration, and not all of the nevl'hires would choqsê to lir.e in the a¡ca full time, but the size and duration of the project made possible $omethiug that a nr:¡nber of thc skillcd tradcs otherrr.ise lacked, an opporfunitvto settle and raise familíes rn a stable work environmcnt with steady employrnent, lvithout havhg to Favel from projcct to projeot or spend long periods away from home The update ofthe 'Watson Report deted July 4,20l,6,provides some cotnmentary'on adjusûnerrts that have occurted since the initial report of 2014, but the material and projections in the Board's hands have not been altered to reflect the populatiorr charrges and demânds on the sshools rn the area. Reports prepared jointly byBruce Power and Bruce County'Economic Development project significaat popuJation growth: especially within the RA02 and Râ04 ÈreÊs? yet the report in the Board's hands identifies schools in Port Etgin and Southarnptorr a¡eas as increasing modestl,n- in school population or actually declíning. It cannot be so. The largest consftrctiôn project ín O¡tario both in size and druatiorL 5000 on site jobs plus related spinoffjobs and all of these people will require ac¿ommodation. All of these young families will âdd greatly to the school population and put pressrrrc on schools within R.q.02 and R 4.04 regions to absorb that populatiorr. This growth is uot confined to thc Lakeshore communities. People ra,ill go where the hor-¡ses are and the Lakeshore cornmurities themselves cannot absorb so large a cohort.
Page2 I expect that the Board is worhirrg closoly with the Bruce County Economic Development Committee to assess the projected population growth during the refurbishment phase, but that discussion is ongoing, and the only cortainty is th¿t the assurnptlons and projectíons contained in the Watson Report, while perhaps accuate at the time, no lorrger hal'e any relevance. IVhat once may have been a solid responsible plan in face of enrolment declino, now becomes a potontial miscalculation based on outdated data and strong evidence to the contrary. In the absence of actual ptojections, horr is the board to deterrnine a rvorkable stategy? The a¡uwer, I suggest lies in your o\ryn a¡chives. The boom in this area in the l9Z0 and l980s related to the çonstruotion of Bruce ",{" arld Bn¡ce "8" provides a templaæ for the nerv build based on er'çnts at that time. The butk of the population gowth at that timc centered on the Lakeshore cnmrnunities, and r,"ç Ðxpect that the same ratios and ûcnds rould apply again. The largest population grovl'tì ç'as conFact workers, and a large proportion of thcm bouglrt houses, and brought their families to the arca The Paisley fl.rea $äs likewise affected, and the Village of Paisley rêports, Stats Can statistics and the Board's ornn records will.show the following: Paisþ Vinage increæed in population by approximately 40%0. Population grornrth Ín the I areas served by Paisley Cental School rose âs uell, as yortng people in the area found work locally, reversing the pattern of seeking employment in the London, Kitchener, Guelph sreas. ) The population beca¡r¡e youÐger. Enrollment in Paisley Muror Sports, an âf,ea which largely mitrored the Paisley Cental School district irrcreased tÐ220,2 fu[ buses left Paisley each ñoffilÈg to travel to the Enrce site each da¡ oarryihg alt ofthe rradesmen from the Village who worked on site. House c¿n¡itr:ction expanded to accomrnodatc the extra population. 3' School population grçw to the point where ùe existing school constusted in 1968 lr.as inadequate to handle the extra str¡dents. A two room addition was tequired to handle the excess and for e number of years, when that becarue inadeqrrate, sorne of that overflow waç shifted to portables. Yor:¡ own figures will show the size ar¡d extent of that growth, and the Prç$surçs on Paisley School to accorr¡.modate that growrh during that period. '(#hy is that televant norv? Because it provides you with tìe bçst ternplate, the best guide on what wrll oscur this time around. Those numbers and the events of that time point to a distinctly dífferçnt conolusion than that posited in the \V'atson repolt. \llhat those numbers, including your o1,1'n nurtbers, will demonstrate is that Paisley and Distict will increase in po'pulation, will become younger? and the young ncw hires moving to the a¡ea will fill paisley Central School, all as occurred last time aror¡nd.
Page 3 In pot, Paisley is uniquely poiæd to participate in that growth particularlv for the young demographic growtr for the following rcasons: I Geogr¿phy - Measwed from tbe Torryn Center to the Bruce PowEr Visitors Centre, Port Elgin is 23 km, Southaruptort is 31 km, Paisley splits the differenee at 29 km. .) House Prices - Based on Crrey Bruce O*'en Souud Real Estate reportsof sales, a comparable 40 year old, 3 bedroom bungalou'in Port Elgin or Southampton would cost on ave,ïagç $50,000.00 more than in Paisle¡ The rnid 40's construction worker night have the $80,000.00 deposit to put down on his $400,000.00 pr:rohase, his yorurger mid 20's co'worker does not, This trend persisted through the last boom. The result, Paisley drew a larger proportion of the younger portion of that cohort, and will do again for the saüte rea.sotr. Affordabilif.v - Thc Governme¡rt of Canada receutl¡* released amendnronts relating to 3 lending u'hich impose a Mortgage Rate Stress Test. This requires prospectivË borrowers to be able to demonstate the ability to servíce debt at a rate cun=ntþ pegged at 4.64Yo, ott a 5 year mortgage, rougtrly 2 percentage poirrts above current lending rates. ùr a $400,000.00 purchase, that amousts to arl additional $8,000.00 in debt senicing per yËar, on a.$200,000.00 pwchase, that number drops to $4,000.00^ For new home buyers. and )'oung couples just gefting started, Port Eþin or Southarnpton may be beyond their means. Th¿t test w"ill force a healthy number or that contingent to the less expensive ma¡kets. Advantags Paisley. Availabtlitv - The study done at the consfirrction of the water pipeline from Chesley to 4, Paisley identified an anomaly. While the number of houses in Paisley and Chesley had incre¿sed since the 1970's the aotual population d.ecreased. The conclusion in large part v/äs that the young contingent aniving iu the arca in the 1970s and 1980s, and who had f,rlled the schools dr:ring that era r\¡çrr now çmptv ne$ters whose children had únce moved orr. A portion of that group will disposc of the fou bedroom home that they no longer requireo or the lawn they no longer $ish to cut, the maintenence they no longer wish to do, for the condo, or the adult living rental unit, leaving Paislery a¡ld Disuiçt able to meet the demand for affordable housing which the new hires will ffeate. rile will show as well how the present inventory of houses, muÊh larget than it was in the eady 1970e firrnishes a rrarket forthat group of young families- What that pþline report also provided for was an anticipated arurual 2% growth rn populatiorr for Paistey overthe next 20 yrars. That amounts to 400 e:fira rçsidents for the Village propör. Dev'elopment - You will be receiving correspondence from Barry's Construction with Þ respect to the proposed School closrue. That cornpany has been active in the regiorç having construoted nçw homes for more than 30 yeaf,s. They'acquired lots in Paisloy because they identífied futr-ue gowth potential based on Bruce Power hirings. The coûpany did not buy the lots out of no$aglia or sentiment. They did so because they recognized a dsrnaüd based on the need for more hor¡.sing in Pairley.
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