2Q2019 Opportunity Day Thursday, September 5, 2019
Agenda Highlights GGC Going Forward Palm Oil Market Updates Financial Performance Page 2
Disclaimer This presentation includes forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties, including those pertaining to the anticipated benefits to be realized from the proposals described herein. This presentation contains a number of forward-looking statements including, in particular, statements about future events, future financial performance, plans, strategies, expectations, prospects, competitive environment, regulation and supply and demand. GGC has based these forward-looking statements on its views with respect to future events and financial performance. Actual financial performance of the entities described herein could differ materially from that projected in the forward-looking statements due to the inherent uncertainty of estimates, forecasts and projections, and financial performance may be better or worse than anticipated. Given these uncertainties, readers should not put undue reliance on any forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements represent estimates and assumptions only as of the date that they were made. The information contained in this presentation is subject to change without notice and GGC does not undertake any duty to update the forward-looking statements, and the estimates and assumptions associated with them, except to the extent required by applicable laws and regulations. Page 3
2Q2019 Highlights Financial Performance Highlights GGC Going Forward Palm Oil Market Updates Key Highlights FA Business Unit: ME Business Unit: + Mandate of B7 and optional B10 & B20 + Natural FA price was being in the competitive + Gov. delegated EGAT to purchase additional CPO 200 Ktons range to synthetic FA price on top of 160 Ktons in 1Q19 (EGAT has currently bought 220 + FA Supply was tight due to plant shutdown in EU Ktons) and China + CPO inventory level was less than 300,000 tons + Improved ME sales volume 24% YoY - High competition of ME led to narrow margin - CPKO prices continue downward trend due to - Glycerine price drop from glut supply high inventory in international market Plant Operation : + ME plant 2 COD on April 5, 2019. Financial Performance: - ME plant 1 had turnaround for maintenance for 11 days - Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA -49% YoY - FA plant had shutdown for catalyst changing for 20 days - ME Adjusted EBITDA -160% YoY + FA Adjusted EBITDA +27% YoY Special Issue: + Returning inventory from supplier Page 4
2Q2019 Operation Highlights Financial Performance Highlights GGC Going Forward Palm Oil Market Updates METHYL ESTER (B100) BUSINESS UNIT GGC’s ME Operational Performance ME Plant Utilization Rate Biodiesel Mandate CPO (DIT) : THB/Kg 113% 108% 102% 90% 81% B7 B7 B7 B7 B7 20.78 20.56 2Q18 1Q19 2Q19 1H18 1H19 16.04 17.21 16.63 Note: In 2Q19, utilization rate calculated base on nameplate capacity 500,000 ton per year from ME1&ME2 Sales Volume (Tons) 192,854 206,293 2Q18 1Q19 2Q19 1H18 1H19 2Q18 1Q19 2Q19 1H18 1H19 90,100 94,703 111,590 ME (EPPO) : THB/Litre ME EPPO P2F : THB/Kg 2Q18 1Q19 2Q19 1H18 1H19 Note: Sales volume was calculated from ME1&ME2. In addition, the company couldn’t realize sales volume from ME2 because it was under test run for commercial operation in 1Q19, 2Q19 and 6M19 as follows; (1) In 1Q19, Sales volume from ME 2 = 15,678 tons 25.03 24.85 (2) In 2Q19, Sales volume from ME 2 during 1-4 April, 19 = 1,615 tons 5.13 5.13 4.87 4.84 4.85 (3) In 6M19. Sales volume from ME 2 = 17,293 tons 20.74 21.17 20.96 Adjusted EBITDA (MB) 296 2Q18 1Q19 2Q19 1H18 1H19 2Q18 1Q19 2Q19 1H18 1H19 116 20 -50 -70 THB/Kg 2Q18 1Q19 2Q19 1H18 1H19 2Q18 1Q19 2Q19 1H18 1H19 ME EPPO 28.94 23.98 24.48 28.72 24.23 Page 5
2Q2019 Operation Highlights Financial Performance Highlights GGC Going Forward Palm Oil Market Updates FATTY ALCOHOLS BUSINESS UNIT CPKO (MPOB) : USD/Ton Natural Fatty Alcohols regained GGC’s FA Operational Performance Competitiveness vs. Synthetic ones Plant Utilization Rate 1,029 921 Crude Oil Price (WTI) : USD/BBL 677 615 554 120% 111% 110% 97% 68 65 60 57 84% 55 2Q18 1Q19 2Q19 1H18 1H19 FA (ICIS) : USD/Ton 2Q18 1Q19 2Q19 1H18 1H19 2Q18 1Q19 2Q19 1H18 1H19 Sales Volume (Tons) Ethylene Price (USGC) : USD/Ton 1,677 1,324 1,570 1,385 1,263 54,444 49,043 614 626 582 574 534 30,209 24,798 24,245 2Q18 1Q19 2Q19 1H18 1H19 2Q18 1Q19 2Q19 1H18 1H19 2Q18 1Q19 2Q19 1H18 1H19 FA Market P2F : USD/Ton Synthetic FA (C1215) Price : USD/Ton Adjusted EBITDA (MB) Natural Mid Cut FA (C1214) Price : USD/Ton 2,315 2,249 434 411 599 586 573 1,565 1,462 1,514 216 465 195 442 170 1,973 1,786 1,502 1,255 1,379 2Q18 1Q19 2Q19 1H18 1H19 2Q18 1Q19 2Q19 1H18 1H19 2Q18 1Q19 2Q19 1H18 1H19 Page 6
Agenda Highlights GGC Going Forward Palm Oil Market Updates Financial Performance Page 7
Refined Glycerine Plant 2 Project Financial Performance Highlights GGC Going Forward Palm Oil Market Updates CGL Captive use to produce RGL with higher value By Product Value Added to ME Plant 2 (RGL) Applications Refined Crude Glycerine Refined Gylcerine Plant 2 ME Plant 2 Glycerine 20 KTA • Integrated project with ME Plant 2 • Enhance value of by-product, Crude Glycerine from ME production • Capture market growth of high volume industries COD Awarded EPC Next Action: Project CAPEX 1) Site preparation and soil Timeline 326 MB 2Q/19 2Q/20 compression work 2) Finish detail engineering work for Progress: construction 1) Awarded EPC Contractor and Signed 3) Start Tank Farm and Process EPC Agreement Building foundation work 2) Start detail engineering work for 4) Procurement major equipment for construction OSBL 3) Completed to receive Long Lead Equipment from Licensor Page 8
Nakhonsawan Biocomplex Financial Performance Highlights Highlights Palm Oil Market Updates GGC Going Forward Palm Oil Market Updates Financial Performance GGC Going Forward Integrated Complex to Produce Biofuel, Biochemicals, Bioplastics from Sugarcane and Electricity/Steam from Biomass Progress: Phase 1 ▪ Completed Site preparation on May 2019. Sugar cane ▪ EIA (Amendment) has been approved on June 2019 ▪ In the process to awarded EPC contract. Cane Crushing Mill Capacity 24,000 tons/day ▪ In the process to get BOI license and construction license or 2.4 mm tons per year (Ror. Ngor 4) Crushing Mill Ethanol Plant Capacity 600,000 litres/day or 186 Mlitres/year Ethanol Plant Biomass Power Plant Capacity 85 MW Steam Capacity 475 Tons/hr Utility & Waste Next Action: ▪ To Award EPC and start construction after get license COD FID CAPEX Project 7,500 MB Timeline (GGC Hold 50%) 1Q/19 1Q/21 Page 9
Agenda Highlights GGC Going Forward Palm Oil Market Updates Financial Performance Page 10
3Q19 Highlights of Palm Oil & Oleochemicals Market Financial Performance Highlights GGC Going Forward Palm Oil Market Updates ME Chain ME Price & Spread ME: THB/KG Spread ME CPO 50.0 • ME demand in 3Q19 will be influenced by; 39.5 - Lower in biodiesel consumption due to rainy season 40.0 34.4 + Government prolongs B20 subsidiary program at 5 THB/L from end 33.3 30.5 28.6 28.5 28.9 29.0 of Jul’19 to Sep’19 27.9 30.0 25.2 24.0 24.5 24.2 + Consumption of B20 in Jun’19 = 122 ML/M 30.8 + Consumption of B10 in Jun’19 = 0.33 ML/M 25.8 22.4 20.5 20.3 20.8 20.2 24.9 20.0 CPO: 19.6 16.6 16.9 16.0 17.2 • Local CPO price is probably traded up side due to 10.0 5.2 4.9 5.1 4.9 5.1 5.0 5.2 5.0 4.8 5.3 5.2 4.9 + Tight CPO supply due to low season 4.8 + EGAT still has room to purchases CPO 0.0 • Local CPO stock in Q3 is around 300,000 tons 1Q172Q173Q174Q171Q182Q183Q184Q181Q192Q19 FY17 FY18 1H19 FA Chain FA Price & Spread FA: USD/T Spread FA CPKO 2,500 • 2,243 Overall demand in 3Q19 will be influenced by; 2,054 1,975 1,820 1,783 1,784 2,000 + FA Supply tight due to shutdown plant in Europe & China 1,570 1,568 1,516 1,521 1,395 - Concerns of US vs China trade war 1,385 1,324 1,304 1,263 1,500 999 1,156 1,138 1,244 - Depreciation of CNY/USD 919 882 717 677 914 - CPKO price volatile 1,000 615 599 424 584 433 488 419 468 463 535 573 483 471 586 CPKO: 554 500 • CPKO price will be traded side way due to 0 - Uncertainty of demand from Oleochemicals 1Q172Q173Q174Q171Q182Q183Q184Q181Q192Q19 FY17 FY18 1H19 - Stock level in Indonesia and Malaysia remains high Page 11
Recommend
More recommend
