Opportunity Day 1Q2019 29 29 May 2019
Contents 1 Overview 1Q2019 2 Performance 3 Outlook 2019 Outlook 2Q2019 1
Activity highlights 1Q2019 PTT’s Highlight + Established Map ta Phut Air Product Co., Ltd (Jan. ‘19) + NGV price for Public be lifted 3 bath/kg every 4 months + 1 notch on Standalone ➔ BBB+ starting (May 16’19) + 1 notch on Final LC ➔ A- + PTTGE – FBP Divestment (Apr’19) PTTEP’s Highlight Standalone Rating Final Rating + Win bidding in UAE (Jan’19) Foreign Local + Acquired Murphy oil Corporation assets (Mar’19) Currency Currency + Mozambique step forwards by signing SPA + Developing on HBR project Maintain at BBB+ A- PTT BBB+ GPSC’s Highlight + Acquired 69.11% of GLOW (14 Mar 19) PTTEP A- + In the process of tender offer for 30.89% stake in GLOW GC BBB+ BBB+ PTTOR’s Highlight + Opening of Café Amazon 1 st branch in Singapore TOP BBB+ BBB+ (Apr’19) PTT Group Lowlight - GSP#1 : planned Turn down (50%) for 45 days (Jan – 15 Mar ‘19) - GSP#2 GSP#5 and Ethane plant : Tropical Storm “PABUK” unplanned SD 9 days (Dec’18 –Jan’19) - IRPC RDCC Turnaround : 28 days 2
PTT Consolidated Performance: 1Q2019 QoQ: 50% NI ; Better stock G/L despite lower gas performance YoY: 26% NI ; Soften petroleum & petrochemical spread Avg. Dubai 1Q19 6% QoQ (USD/BBL) 67.4 63.9 63.5 1% YoY Others Power 1% 1% 11% QoQ Revenue 11% QoQ PTTEP 3% YoY 5% - Lower from all core businesses PTT-Gas 617,417 15% following lower product prices P&R 30% 550,874 532,972 + Higher from power business Revenue 3% YoY + Gas (higher gas price & vol.) 31% 17% + Trading (import & out-out vol.) Oil PTT-Trading + PTTEP (higher prices & Bongkot vol.) 1Q18 4Q18 1Q19 25% QoQ Others EBITDA Power 3% 1% 25% QoQ + P&R mainly from stock gain in 1Q19 11% YoY vs stock loss in 4Q18 26% + Oil : lower exp. & lower stock loss P&R 90,116 PTTEP 40% 80,523 EBITDA 11% YoY 64,443 - P&R : Soften GRM & olefins spreads 7% Oil - GSP : Lower margin from higher feed cost & weaker product prices 22% PTT-Trading - Oil : Lower margin (esp. JET) 1% 1Q18 4Q18 1Q19 + Higher stock gain PTT-Gas 50% QoQ Net Income Others* 50% QoQ + Higher EBITDA PTTEP 26% 28% 26% YoY + Lower DD&A 39,788 Net - Loss on derivative (PTTEP & PTTT) 29,312 1% Income 26% YoY Power 19,538 16% - Lower EBITDA 9 P&R 29% - Loss on derivative PTT - Higher DD&A 1Q18 4Q18 1Q19 3 *other affiliates including PTTOR, PTTLNG, PTTNGD etc.
Contents 1 Overview 1Q2019 2 Performance 3 Outlook 2019 4
Key Business Drivers: QoQ: Oil prices tend to pick up, Avg. pooled gas slightly increased, while Petchem prices fell YoY: Most Petrochemical prices dropped, while NG prices escalated NG Prices ($/MMBTU) AVG. Dubai vs FO Unit: $/MMBTU QoQ YoY Unit: $/bbl 100 12 QoQ YoY JLC 2% 2 3 % AVG.Dubai 6% 1% JKM 23% 19% 11.2 FO 3.5% 7% 9% JLC* Avg. Pool 1% 20 % 11.0 10 74.3 10.5 11.0 80 10.2 72.1 9.7 10.0 Dubai 8.1 8.5 68.8 63.9 8.0 9.1 7.9 71.7 8 JKM 67.7 54.9 67.4 7.0 60 64.1 51.4 7.3 59.0 6.8 7.2 63.5 6.6 6 6.5 6.1 52.7 5.9 Avg. Pooled Price 49.0 5.6 40 4 FO 3.5% * JLC = Japan LNG Cocktail : Landed LNG price in Japan 20 2 4Q18 1Q19 Apr 19 1H17 2H17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 Apr 19 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 1H17 2H17 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 AVG. FX Petrochemical Products QoQ Unit: $/ton YoY (Unit: THB/USD) AVG. FX 37 HDPE 9% 21% QoQ: Appreciated 1.2 THB/USD (3.6%) PP 7% 11% 1600 YoY: Depreciated 0.1 THB/USD (0.3%) PX-NAP 2% 47% 1,379 1,38 4 36 BZ-NAP 4 4% 77% Ending FX 1,350 1400 1,215 QoQ: Appreciated 0.6 THB/USD ( 1.9 %) 1,182 HDPE Price 1,301 1,270 YoY: Less Appreciated 0. 2 THB/USD 1,1 27 1200 1,288 35 1,155 1,173 1,207 1, 093 1,137 1000 34.9 PP Price 34 800 33.1 33.0 PX-Naphtha 573 561 513 33.3 33 600 32. 1 381 382 335 343 400 31.7 31.8 32 378 310 200 278 201 15 18 9 BZ-Naphtha 126 31 71 0 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 4Q18 1Q19 Apr 19 1H17 2H17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 1H17 2H17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 Apr 19 5 Note: Figures are average & Naphtha (MOP)
1Q19 Performance (QoQ): Improved performance from better stock G/L despite lower gas performance MMTHB Others Affi 35,316 Oil Lower Stock loss from price recovery 27,221 Rising sales Vol. from aviation & diesel Margin dropped from aviation pricing structure 29,312 Coal business from past tax lawsuits payback Higher revenue from LNG Terminal 1 Phase 2 19,538 1,487 1,043 Power 3,722 Other Performance rose from GLOW’s power plant Depre & 5,094 FX & Income 5,114 contribution Amortiza Derivatives OPEX \2 1Q19: 2,884 Only GPSC performance dropped from higher 2,091 -tion Int. & >100% 4Q18: 1,841 1Q19: 95 1Q19: 17,555 CIT exp.& gas cost 4Q18: 3,817 4Q18: 22,649 1Q19: 31,195 Other 4Q18: 32,682 Petrochem & Refining 8,238 1Q19: 22,994 10% 30,282 4Q18: 17,880 Others Weaken Mkt. GRM from lower product spreads 7,488 Affi. Soften petchem product both Olefins & Aromatics 19,296 387 48% 261 Higher stock gain 2,079 Power \1 74% 8,055 P&R PTTEP Margin Stock 8,147 11% Tax effect from Thai Baht appreciation in 1Q19 gain/(loss) 1Q19: 92,824 7,363 PTTEP 4Q18: 112,120 Lower operating expenses 1Q19: 5,254 4Q18: (25,028) Lower ASP & Vol. 8,370 Gas 12,149 31% PTT GSP decreased from lower ref. product price S&M decreased from lower FO price and Extra (952) higher gas pooled price Items (14,826) Stock Trading gain/ Margin from lower domestic condensate price (loss) & higher discount rate Vol. decreased from lower demand during 1Q19 4Q18 winter 6 \1 consisting of GPSC, TP, DCAP, PTTES, Digital and ENCO \2 including petroleum exploration expenses and royalties
Statement of Financial Position Assets/Liabilities increased : mainly from MMTHB • GPSC’s acquisition of Glow resulted in higher PPE and liabilities 7% 2,521,101 2,355,484 1,805,041 AP & Other Liabilities 450,767 Net Debt/EBITDA ≤ 2.0 Cash & 611,450 434,605 ST Invest 0.55 518,916 0.31 439,434 AR & Other LT Net Debt/Equity ≤ 1.0 Current 422,358 Liabilities 545,512 Assets 518,073 (incl. due 0.14 within 1 yr) 0.08 Others 447,839 Non- 384,346 current Assets 2018 2019 Total 1,364,139 Equity 1,318,495 PTT Ratings at Sovereign Level PPE 1,183,061 1,114,175 − FC : Moody’s (Baa1), S&P* (BBB+), FITCH (BBB+) − LC : Moody’s (Baa1), S&P* ( A-), FITCH (BBB+) 1 2 3 4 5 31 Dec 13 31 Dec. 18 31 Mar. 19 30 Sep 14 *S *S&P final rati ting up uplift 1 no notc tch at LC LC on only bu but t mainta tain for or FC 7
Contents 1 Overview 1Q2019 2 Performance 3 Outlook 2019 8
2019 Petroleum and Gas Outlook Dubai Price 1Q2019 2019E OPEC+ to cut supply (1.2 MBPD) to balance market • Dubai 63.5 6 0 -7 0 Political Risks ; U.S. sanction on Iran & Venezuela, unrest in Libya • Petroleum Mogas 67.2 70-80 Heightened tensions in the Middle East • Gasoil 76.3 78-88 Surging Non-OPEC output ; especially in U.S. – adding crude • 9 $/bbl exports after pipeline expansion at Permian completed in 4 Q 19 Cracking 3.2 4.0-5.0 120 Lower demand due to expectation on global econ . slowdown • 7 100 Mogas 5 80 Ample supply due to high refinery input of light crude, after • 3 U.S. shale oil export surges 60 Higher demand during driving season • Dubai Mogas Gasoil Cracking (RHS) 40 1 Lower supply from refinery’s yield shifting to maximize • Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 2019 middle distillate ahead of IMO implementation in 2020 GRM: Gasoil Asian refining margins to range between $4.0 – 5.0/bbl in 2019 • Stock buildup ahead of IMO in 2020 • Lower gasoline & FO crack margins in 4Q19 before IMO in • Higher Chinese exports from additional export quota • 2020 Softened demand as heating demand fades after winter ends, • and lower industrial output due to econ. slowdown Price 1Q2019 2019E Gas/LNG Asian Spot LNG 8.5 6 .5 – 7.5 Gas / LNG 14 Henry Hub (HH) 2. 9 2 .6 – 3.0 $/MMBTU 12 Asian Spot LNG: • More Australian and US LNG projects to come online in 10 • 2019 8 Buyers remained out of the market amidst high stock levels • 6 Buyers to return for summer season to procure spot • 4 volumes 2 Asian Spot LNG Henry Hub Henry Hub: Strong Growth in US natural gas production to • 0 put downward pressure on prices in 2019 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 2019 9 Source: PTT, PRISM
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