2017 Sc oping Plan Update T he Pr o po se d Str ate gy fo r Ac hie ving Califo r nia’s 2030 Gr e e nho use Gas T ar ge t Mar c h 28, 2017 1
Wo rksho p Ma te ria ls Slide s https:/ / www.a rb .c a .g o v/ c c / sc o ping pla n/ me e ting s/ me e ting s.htm 2
Outline Ba c kg ro und GHG a nd Air Qua lity Ana lyse s He a lth I mpa c ts Ana lyse s E c o no mic Re fine me nts Ana lyse s Sc he dule 3
Ba c kg ro und: 2017 Sc o ping Pla n Upda te Pa th to a c hie ve 40% re duc tio n in GHGs b y 2030 c o mpa re d to 1990 le ve ls Builds o n Ca lifo rnia ’ s suc c e ss re duc ing GHGs Co ntinue s Ca lifo rnia ’ s le a de rship in imple me nting a c tio ns to a c hie ve g lo b a l c lima te g o a ls Pro po se d Pla n dra ws o n the suc c e sse s a nd the le sso ns le a rne d fro m the pre vio us pla ns Pro po se s c o ntinuing suc c e ssful pro g ra ms tha t ha ve se rve d a s a mo de l fo r o the r sta te s a nd jurisdic tio ns a ro und the wo rld Pro po se d Pla n a c hie ve s 2030 GHG re duc tio n ta rg e t a nd c o ntinue s to ma ke o ur c o mmunitie s a nd e c o no my mo re re silie nt a nd e q uita b le a t the sa me time 4
Ob je c tive s fo r Sc o ping Pla n Upda te Ac hie ve 2030 ta rg e t Pro vide dire c t GHG e missio ns re duc tio ns Pro vide a ir q ua lity c o -b e ne fits Minimize e missio ns “le a ka g e ” – inc re a se to no n-CA GHG e missio ns Suppo rt c lima te inve stme nt in disa dva nta g e d c o mmunitie s Pro te c t pub lic he a lth F a c ilita te sub -na tio na l a nd na tio na l c o lla b o ra tio n Suppo rt c o st-e ffe c tive a nd fle xib le c o mplia nc e Suppo rt Cle a n Po we r Pla n a nd o the r fe de ra l a c tio n 5
Pro po se d Sc o ping Pla n Sc e na rio *SB 350 - inc re a se re ne wa b le e ne rg y a nd e ne rg y e ffic ie nc y *SB 1383 - Sho rt-L ive d Clima te Po lluta nt Pla n *SB 375 – suppo rt susta ina b le c o mmunity de ve lo pme nt *Mo b ile So urc e Stra te g y - he lp Sta te a c hie ve its fe de ra l a nd sta te a ir q ua lity sta nda rds *E nha nc e d L o w Ca rb o n F ue l Sta nda rd *Susta ina b le F re ig ht Ac tio n Pla n Ne w Re fine ry E ffic ie nc y Me a sure fo r All F a c ilitie s in the Se c to r Fewer GHG emissions per barrel of a refined product 20 percent GHG reductions by 2030 Po st-2020 Ca p-a nd-T ra de Pro g ra m E c o no my-wide c a p T ra ding a nd o ffse t usa g e limit o f 8 pe rc e nt *E xisting c o mmitme nts inc lude d in a ny Sc o ping Pla n Upda te 6
Alte rna tive s Co nside re d Mino r Cla rific a tio ns ma de 3/ 28 No Ca p-a nd-T ra de (Pre sc riptive Re g ula tio ns) E nha nc e d e xisting c o mmitme nts (RPS >50%) Pre sc riptive me a sure s fo r a ll industry (25-30% re duc tio ns b y 2030) I nc e ntive pro g ra ms to re tire a nd re pla c e lig ht duty ve hic le s a nd na tura l g a s he a ting (>1 millio n c a rs a nd furna c e s re pla c e d) Hig he r c o st o n Ca lifo rnia e c o no my tha n pro po se d pla n Hig he r unc e rta inty o f no t me e ting 2030 ta rg e t L imite d o ptio ns to mitig a te fo r le a ka g e Ca rb o n T a x E xisting c o mmitme nts Ca rb o n ta x a t the so c ia l c o st o f c a rb o n ($50 pe r me tric to n in 2030) Diffic ult to se t ta x c o rre c tly to hit a n e missio ns ta rg e t. E xisting c a rb o n ta x in British Co lumb ia sho ws se tting the rig ht ta x to hit a ta rg e t is diffic ult. Hig he r unc e rta inty o f no t me e ting 2030 ta rg e t L imite d o ptio ns to mitig a te fo r le a ka g e 7
Alte rna tive s Co nside re d, c o nt. Mino r Cla rific a tio ns ma de 3/ 28 All Ca p-a nd-T ra de E xisting c o mmitme nts No furthe r e nha nc e me nts to L o w Ca rb o n F ue l Sta nda rd No re fine ry se c to r me a sure E stima te d lo we r dire c t c o sts tha n pro po se d pla n Ca p a nd T a x T a x a ll GHG e missio ns tha t o c c ur F ue l supplie rs, g a s a nd e le c tric ity utilitie s, a nd industry wo uld e a c h re duc e GHG e missio ns b y a b o ut 4.5 pe rc e nt e a c h ye a r (fa ir sha re fro m 1990 le ve l) Individua l c a p de c line is infe a sib le fo r ma ny se c to rs, b usine sse s c o uld le a ve the sta te , impa c ting jo b s a nd GDP Wa shing to n Sta te c a p-a nd-de c line pro g ra m ha s a le ss ste e p de c line a nd inc o rpo ra te d o ffse ts a nd tra ding to pro vide c o mplia nc e fle xib ility Curre nt CA pro g ra m ha s 2-3% c a p de c line a nd inc lude s o ffse ts a nd tra ding Hig he st dire c t c o sts tha n pro po se d pla n a nd a ll a lte rna tive s c o nside re d L imite d o ptio ns to mitig a te fo r le a ka g e 8
Summa ry o f E missio ns E stima te s Mino r Cla rific a tio ns ma de 3/ 28 E stima te d c ha ng e s in GHGs a nd a ir q ua lity re pre se nt c ha ng e s within Ca lifo rnia T o e xte nt mo re po we r is impo rte d o r industry mo ve s o ut o f Sta te , tho se impa c ts a re no t re fle c te d in the se e stima te s. Pro po se d Pla n a nd Alte rna tive 3,4, a nd 5 ha ve simila r GHG e stima te d re duc tio ns in 2030 Air Qua lity e stima te s va ry de pe nding o n fue l mix a c ro ss the e c o no my fo r diffe re nt sc e na rio s, b ut simila r re sults a c ro ss sc e na rio s Ac ro ss a ll sc e na rio s, mo b ile so urc e s me a sure s pro duc e la rg e st sha re o f a ir q ua lity b e ne fits in 2030 9
Pro po se d Pla n: 2030 GHG a nd Air Qua lity Re duc tio ns Mino r Cla rific a tio ns ma de 3/ 28 Range of Range of Range of GHG Range of NOx Range of VOC PM2.5 Diesel PM Reductions Reductions Reductions Reductions Reductions Scenario (MMTCO2)* (Tons/Day) (Tons/Day) (Tons/Day) (Tons/Day) Proposed Scenario 100-184 54-68 6.4-8.1 4.2-5.4 4-9 E stima te s fo r c rite ria a nd to xic s do no t inc lude a ny b e ne fits o f the Ca p-a nd-T ra de Pro g ra m Mo b ile So urc e s me a sure s prima ry drive rs o f b e ne fits in a ir q ua lity Mo b ile So urc e Stra te g y, Susta ina b le F re ig ht, 18% L CF S 18% L CF S pro vide s c o nside ra b ly mo re a ir q ua lity b e ne fits tha n 20% re fine ry me a sure I n 2030, Ca p-a nd-T ra de Pro g ra m e stima te d to de live r 43-100 MMT CO2e re duc tio ns—inc lude d in GHG ra ng e in ta b le Pre limina ry Re sults 10
Alt 1-No Ca p-a nd-T ra de : 2030 GHG a nd Air Qua lity Re duc tio ns Mino r Cla rific a tio ns ma de 3/ 28 Range of Range of Range of GHG Range of NOx Range of VOC PM2.5 Diesel PM Reductions Reductions Reductions Reductions Reductions Scenario (MMTCO2)* (Tons/Day) (Tons/Day) (Tons/Day) (Tons/Day) No Cap-and- Trade (Prescriptive Regulations) 89-130 53-68 6.3-8 13-16 1-2 Sma lle r ra ng e o f GHG re duc tio ns in 2030 Mo b ile So urc e s me a sure s prima ry drive rs o f b e ne fits in a ir q ua lity Mo b ile So urc e Stra te g y, Susta ina b le F re ig ht, 25% L CF S 25% L CF S pro vide s c o nside ra b le mo re a ir q ua lity b e ne fits tha n 30% re fine ry me a sure in 2030 11 Pre limina ry Re sults
Alt 2-Ca rb o n T a x: 2030 GHG a nd Air Qua lity Re duc tio ns Mino r Cla rific a tio ns ma de 3/ 28 Range of Range of Range of GHG Range of NOx Range of VOC PM2.5 Diesel PM Reductions Reductions Reductions Reductions Reductions Scenario (MMTCO2)* (Tons/Day) (Tons/Day) (Tons/Day) (Tons/Day) Carbon Tax 100-184 54-68 6.4-8.1 4.2-5.4 4-9 I ndividua l me a sure b e ne fits simila r to Pro po se d Pla n E stima te s fo r c rite ria a nd to xic s do no t inc lude a ny b e ne fits o f the Ca rb o n T a x Mo b ile So urc e s me a sure s prima ry drive rs o f b e ne fits in a ir q ua lity Mo b ile So urc e Stra te g y, Susta ina b le F re ig ht, 18% L CF S I n 2030, Ca rb o n T a x e stima te d to de live r 43-100 MMT CO2e re duc tio ns – inc lude d in GHG ra ng e in ta b le Pre limina ry Re sults 12
Alt 3 - All Ca p-a nd-T ra de : 2030 GHG a nd Air Qua lity Re duc tio ns Mino r Cla rific a tio ns ma de 3/ 28 Range of Range of Range of GHG Range of NOx Range of VOC PM2.5 Diesel PM Reductions Reductions Reductions Reductions Reductions Scenario (MMTCO2)* (Tons/Day) (Tons/Day) (Tons/Day) (Tons/Day) All Cap- and-Trade 100-184 53-67 6.9-8.8 4.2-5.4 5-10 I ndividua l me a sure b e ne fits simila r to Pro po se d Pla n E stima te s fo r c rite ria a nd to xic s do no t inc lude a ny b e ne fits o f Ca p-a nd-T ra de I n 2030, Ca p-a nd-T ra de Pro g ra m e stima te d to de live r 50-110 MMT CO2e re duc tio ns – inc lude d in GHG ra ng e in ta b le Slig htly hig he r DPM re duc tio ns tha n Pro po se d Pla n – within mo de ling unc e rta inty 13 Pre limina ry Re sults
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