Pub lic Wo rksho p 2017 Sc oping Plan Update T he Pro po se d - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Pub lic Wo rksho p 2017 Sc oping Plan Update T he Pro po se d Strate g y fo r Ac hie ving Califo rnia’ s 2030 Gre e nho use Gas T arg e t Oc to b e r 12, 2017 Sa c ra me nto , Ca lifo rnia 1

Wo rksho p Ma te ria ls Slide s https:/ / www.a rb .c a .g o v/ c c / sc o ping pla n/ me e ting s/ me e ting s.htm 2

Outline  Ba c kg ro und a nd Pro c e ss  Re c e nt L e g isla tio n  Sc o ping Pla n Ana lyse s  GHG a nd Air Qua lity Ana lyse s  E c o no mic Re fine me nts  Sc he dule 3

Ba c kg ro und a nd Pro c e ss 4

Sc o ping Pla n Ba c kg ro und  F irst Sc o ping Pla n re q uire d b y Asse mb ly Bill 32  Must b e upda te d a t le a st e ve ry 5 ye a rs  I nitia l Sc o ping Pla n (2008) a nd F irst Upda te (2014)  E xe c utive Orde r B-30-15  E sta b lishe s GHG e missio ns re duc tio n ta rg e t o f 40% b e lo w 1990 le ve ls b y 2030  Dire c ts CARB to upda te Sc o ping Pla n to inc o rpo ra te 2030 GHG ta rg e t  Se na te Bill 32 c o difie s 2030 GHG ta rg e t  AB 398 dire c ts CARB to upda te Sc o ping Pla n no la te r tha n Ja nua ry 1, 2018 5

2017 Sc o ping Pla n Upda te Pro c e ss  Co o rdina tio n with Sta te a g e nc ie s a nd L e g isla ture sinc e 2015  Pre se nta tio ns a t 5 Bo a rd He a ring s  Ove r 15 Pub lic Wo rksho ps  Ove r 19 E nviro nme nta l Justic e Adviso ry Co mmitte e (E JAC) Me e ting s a nd 19 E JAC Co mmunity Me e ting s  Ove r 500 pub lic c o mme nts re c e ive d a nd re vie we d 6

2017 Sc o ping Pla n Upda te Ob je c tive s  Ac hie ve 2030 ta rg e t  Pro vide dire c t GHG e missio ns re duc tio ns  Pro vide a ir q ua lity c o -b e ne fits  Pro te c t pub lic he a lth  Minimize e missio ns “le a ka g e ” – inc re a se to no n-CA GHG e missio ns  Suppo rt c lima te inve stme nt in disa dva nta g e d c o mmunitie s  F a c ilita te sub -na tio na l a nd na tio na l c o lla b o ra tio n  Suppo rt c o st-e ffe c tive a nd fle xib le c o mplia nc e  Suppo rt Cle a n Po we r Pla n a nd o the r fe de ra l a c tio n 7

Alte rna tive s Co nside re d  No Ca p-a nd-T ra de (Pre sc riptive Re g ula tio ns)  Ca rb o n T a x  All Ca p-a nd-T ra de  Ca p a nd T a x 8

Re fe re nc e fo r Upda te s  Ja nua ry 2017 Dra ft Sc o ping Pla n https:/ / www.a rb .c a .g o v/ c c / sc o ping pla n/ sc o ping pla n.htm  Ma rc h Wo rksho p Ana lyse s https:/ / www.a rb .c a .g o v/ c c / sc o ping pla n/ me e ting s/ 032817/ sp- ma rc h-wo rksho p-slide s.pdf 9

Re c e nt L e g isla tio n Sinc e Ja nua ry 2017 Dra ft Sc o ping Pla n 10

Re c e nt L e g isla tio n  July 17, 2017 L e g isla ture pa sse d AB 398 a nd AB 617  AB 398 pro vide s dire c tio n o n a po st-2020 Ca p-a nd-T ra de Pro g ra m a nd upda te s to the re c e nt Sc o ping Pla n Upda te  AB 617 fo c use s o n re duc ing e xpo sure to c rite ria a nd to xic po lluta nts in Ca lifo rnia ’ s mo st b urde ne d c o mmunitie s  I nitia te a ne w rule ma king to de sig n a po st-2020 pro g ra m tha t c o nfo rms to the re q uire me nts in AB 398  Wo rk unde rwa y to imple me nt ne w c o mmunity-fo c use d a ir q ua lity pro g ra m inc luding mo nito ring a nd e missio n re duc tio n pla ns 11

Sc o ping Pla n Sc e na rio  *SB 350 - inc re a se re ne wa b le e ne rg y a nd e ne rg y e ffic ie nc y  *SB 1383 - Sho rt-L ive d Clima te Po lluta nt Pla n  *Mo b ile So urc e Stra te g y - he lp Sta te a c hie ve its fe de ra l a nd sta te a ir q ua lity sta nda rds  *E nha nc e d L o w Ca rb o n F ue l Sta nda rd  *Susta ina b le F re ig ht Ac tio n Pla n  *SB 375 – suppo rt susta ina b le c o mmunity de ve lo pme nt  Po st-2020 Ca p-a nd-T ra de Pro g ra m *E xisting c o mmitme nts 12

SB 375 GHG Re duc tio n T a rg e ts  T a rg e ts a dva nc e lo c a l a nd re g io na l pla nning a nd e xplo ra tio n o f la nd use a nd tra nspo rta tio n stra te g ie s  T o me e t Sc o ping Pla n g o a ls, mo re is ne e de d fro m re g io ns  Bo a rd c o nside ring upda te this No ve mb e r 13

Sc o ping Pla n Ana lyse s 14

E missio ns Mo de ling Re fine me nts  Re fine ry me a sure re mo ve d  Mo de ling upda te s  E le c tric ity se c to r upda te s  Upda te s to re fle c t RPS c o mplia nc e E xc lusio n o f pumping lo a ds fro m re ta il sa le s o I nc lusio n o f b a nke d RE Cs o I nc lusio n o f o ut-o f-sta te PCC3 RE Cs o  Othe r: Mo to rc yc le e ne rg y de ma nd, b e hind-the -me te r CHP, re frig e ra tio n me a sure 15

Sc oping Plan – E stimate d Cumulative GHG Re duc tions by Me asur e (2021- 2030) 16

GHG E missio ns b y Se c to r in 2030 17

Na tura l a nd Wo rking L a nds (NWL )  Ob je c tive s  Ne t ze ro o r ne g a tive GHG e missio ns a nd  Minimize , whe re a ppro pria te , ne t GHG a nd b la c k c a rb o n e missio ns  Go a l  Pre limina ry inte rve ntio n-b a se d g o a l fo r se q ue ste ring a nd a vo iding e missio ns b y a t le a st 15-20 MMT CO 2 e b y 2030 thro ug h e xisting pa thwa ys a nd ne w inc e ntive s  NWL I mple me nta tio n Pla n  Se t pa thwa y to me e t se c to r o b je c tive s a nd inte rve ntio n-b a se d g o a l  F irst wo rksho p o n F rida y Oc to b e r 13, 2017  Ong o ing de ve lo pme nt a nd fe e db a c k in 2018 18

Appe ndic e s  Additio na l a ppe ndic e s sinc e Ja nua ry 2017 Dra ft Sc o ping Pla n  Alte rna tive s E va lua tio n, E stima tio ns fo r AB 197, a nd He a lth I mpa c ts (pre se nte d a t Ma rc h 2017 wo rksho p)  Ma jo r Clima te Sta tute s a nd Re g ula tio ns  Gre e n Building s Stra te g y 19

GHG a nd Air Qua lity Ana lyse s 20

Sc o ping Pla n: 2030 GHG a nd Air Qua lity Re duc tio ns Range of Range of Range of GHG Range of NOx Range of VOC PM2.5 Diesel PM Reductions Reductions Reductions Reductions Reductions Scenario (MMTCO2)* (Tons/Day) (Tons/Day) (Tons/Day) (Tons/Day) Scoping Plan Scenario 100-184 48-73 5.1-7.3 1.4-2.4 5-12  Mo b ile So urc e s me a sure s prima ry drive rs o f b e ne fits in a ir q ua lity  Mo b ile So urc e Stra te g y, Susta ina b le F re ig ht, 18% L CF S  I n 2030, Ca p-a nd-T ra de Pro g ra m e stima te d to de live r 58-119 MMT CO2e re duc tio ns—inc lude d in GHG ra ng e in ta b le 21

E stima te d He a lth I mpa c ts Due to E missio ns Re duc tio ns in 2030 Propose d Sc e na rio (annual r e duc tio ns) Mortality 140-210 Hospitalizations 20-31 ER Visits 58-88  T o ta ls inc lude impa c ts o f die se l pa rtic ula te ma tte r a nd NOx  I ndividua l inc ide nts in 2030, do e s no t inc lude c a nc e r risk  Do e s no t inc lude impa c ts o f Ca p-a nd-T ra de  E stima te s o nly a c c o unt fo r e missio ns unc e rta inty a nd no t he a lth b e ne fits mo de l unc e rta inty  E missio ns fro m po we r pla nts a re we ig hte d to re fle c t re duc e d e xpo sure fro m ta ll smo ke sta c k 22

Additio na l I nfo rma tio n  Additio na l de ta ils o n GHG a nd a ir q ua lity re duc tio ns, he a lth impa c ts a na lyse s, a nd e stima ting he a lth c o -b e ne fits pre se nte d a t Ma rc h 28, 2017 wo rksho p:  https:/ / www.a rb .c a .g o v/ c c / sc o ping pla n/ me e ting s/ 0328 17/ sp-ma rc h-wo rksho p-slide s.pdf 23

E c o no mic Re fine me nts 24

E c o no mic Mo de ling  I nc lude s c a pita l a nd fue l c o sts fro m PAT HWAYS  I mpa c ts o f c a rb o n pric ing a re c a lc ula te d o utside o f PAT HWAYS  Re sults inc lude mo ne tiza tio n o f he a lth impa c ts fro m c ha ng e s in e missio ns o f die se l pa rtic ula te ma tte r a nd NOx  Avo ide d pre ma ture mo rta lity  Ho spita liza tio ns  E R visits  Re sults do no t inc lude  Be ne fits o f a c tive tra nspo rta tio n  Avo ide d e nviro nme nta l da ma g e s a s c a lc ula te d with the so c ia l c o st o f c a rb o n o r the so c ia l c o st o f me tha ne 25

Dire c t Co st E stima te s in 2030 Re la tive to Re fe re nc e Ca se (Billio n $2015) 2030 Cost of 2030 Stock Costs 2030 Fuel Costs Reductions due 2030 Total Cost (Billion $2015) (Billion $2015) to Carbon Pricing (Billion $2015) Scenario (Billion $2015) Scoping Plan $6.0 -5.9 $1.6 to $5.1 $1.7 to $5.2 Scenario 26

Sc o ping Pla n: 2030 Ma c ro e c o no mic I mpa c ts Absolute Change Percentage Change California GDP -$9.7 to -$19.4 -0.3% to -0.6% (Billion $2015) Employment -43.4 to -81.3 -0.2% to -0.3% (Thousand Jobs) Personal Income -$4.2 to -$1.7 -0.1% (Billion $2015)  Re la tive to Re fe re nc e sc e na rio in 2030  Ca lifo rnia GDP: $3.4 trillio n  E mplo yme nt 23,500,000  Pe rso na l I nc o me : $3.0 trillio n  T he a ve ra g e g ro wth ra te o f Sta te GDP, e mplo yme nt, a nd pe rso na l inc o me a re unc ha ng e d re la tive to the Re fe re nc e sc e na rio 27