2017 Climate Change Sc oping Plan Update F e br uar y 9, 2017 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

2017 Climate Change Sc oping Plan Update F e br uar y 9, 2017

Outline  Ba c kg ro und  Ove rvie w o f Pro po se d Pla n  Additio na l De ta il o n Alte rna tive s  Re fine me nts to the E c o no mic Ana lysis  E stima ting He a lth I mpa c ts  Sc he dule  Disc ussio n 2

Ba c kg ro und  Mo st a g g re ssive c lima te ta rg e t in No rth Ame ric a : 40% re duc tio n in GHGs b y 2030 c o mpa re d to 1990 le ve ls  Builds o n Ca lifo rnia ’ s suc c e ss re duc ing GHGs  Alig ns Ca lifo rnia with the re st o f the wo rld in c lima te c ha ng e fig ht  Pro po se d Pla n dra ws o n the suc c e sse s a nd the le sso ns le a rne d fro m the pre vio us pla ns  Pro po se s c o ntinuing ma jo r suc c e ssful pro g ra ms tha t ha ve se rve d a s a mo de l fo r o the r sta te s a nd jurisdic tio ns a ro und the wo rld  Pro po se d Pla n a c hie ve s GHG re duc tio n ta rg e t a nd c o ntinue s to ma ke o ur c o mmunitie s a nd e c o no my mo re re silie nt a nd e q uita b le a t the sa me time 3

Ne w Dire c tive s a nd L e g isla tio n  E xe c utive Orde r B-30-15  Re duc e GHG e missio ns 40% b e lo w 1990 le ve ls b y 2030  Upda te Sc o ping Pla n to inc o rpo ra te 2030 GHG ta rg e t  Se na te Bill 32 (SB 32) c o difie s 2030 GHG ta rg e t  AB 197  Co nside r the so c ia l c o sts o f GHG re duc tio ns  Prio ritize me a sure s re sulting in dire c t e missio n re duc tio ns  F o llo w e xisting AB 32 re q uire me nts—inc luding c o nside ring c o st- e ffe c tive ne ss a nd minimizing le a ka g e 4

Ob je c tive s fo r Sc o ping Pla n  Ac hie ve 2030 ta rg e t  Pro vide dire c t GHG e missio ns re duc tio ns  Pro vide a ir q ua lity c o -b e ne fits  Minimize e missio ns le a ka g e  Suppo rt c lima te inve stme nt in disa dva nta g e d c o mmunitie s  Pro te c t pub lic he a lth  F a c ilita te sub -na tio na l a nd na tio na l c o lla b o ra tio n  Suppo rt c o st-e ffe c tive a nd fle xib le c o mplia nc e  Suppo rt Cle a n Po we r Pla n a nd o the r fe de ra l a c tio n 5

Building o n a n E xisting F o unda tio n  E xisting pro g ra ms a re de live ring the e missio ns re duc tio ns ne e de d to a c hie ve the 2020 ta rg e t  Pro g ra m infra struc ture e xists to suppo rt c o ntinua tio n o f e xisting pro g ra ms  Hig h c o mplia nc e ra te s de mo nstra te re g ula te d e ntitie s a re a b le to suc c e ssfully c o mply with e xisting pro g ra ms  Gro ss do me stic pro duc t (GDP) ha s c o ntinue d to g ro w  Ca lifo rnia is ra nke d a s wo rld’ s fifth la rg e st e c o no my  Pe r c a pita a nd pe r do lla r o f GDP GHG e missio ns ha ve de c line d 6

F o unda tio na l Pla ns fo r 2030 SB 375 Sustainable Communities Strategies 2030 Target Scoping Plan 7

Pro po se d Sc o ping Pla n Sc e na rio  *SB 350 – inc re a se re ne wa b le e ne rg y a nd e ne rg y e ffic ie nc y  *SB 1383 – Sho rt-L ive d Clima te Po lluta nt Re duc tio n Pla n  *SB 375 – suppo rt susta ina b le c o mmunity de ve lo pme nt  *Mo b ile So urc e Stra te g y – he lp Sta te a c hie ve its fe de ra l a nd sta te a ir q ua lity sta nda rds  *L o w Ca rb o n F ue l Sta nda rd  *Susta ina b le F re ig ht Ac tio n Pla n  Ne w Re fine ry E ffic ie nc y Me a sure – 20 pe rc e nt b y 2030  F e we r GHG e missio ns pe r b a rre l o f a re fine d pro duc t  Po st-2020 Ca p-a nd-T ra de Pro g ra m  T ra ding a nd o ffse t usa g e limit o f 8 pe rc e nt * E xisting c o mmitme nts inc lude d in a ny Sc o ping Pla n Upda te 8

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Na tura l a nd Wo rking L a nds  Go a l: Ma na g e Ca lifo rnia ’ s Na tura l a nd Wo rking L a nds, inc luding g re e n spa c e in urb a n a re a s, to b e a re silie nt ne t sink o f c a rb o n in 2030, 2050 a nd b e yo nd  Co ntinue d e ffo rts to mo de l a re fe re nc e c a se a nd ma na g e me nt pra c tic e s to info rm pe rfo rma nc e ta rg e ts  By 2018, de ve lo p a n I nte g ra te d a nd Wo rking L a nds Ac tio n Pla n to de ta il ho w this se c to r b e c o me s a ne t c a rb o n sink  SB 1383 g o a l to re duc e me tha ne e missio ns fro m live sto c k ma nure a nd da iry ma nure ma na g e me nt o pe ra tio ns 10

Pro po se d Pla n Me e ts All Ob je c tive s (1 o f 2)  Hig h pro b a b ility o f me e ting 2030 ta rg e t with ha rd c a p  Pro vide s dire c t GHG e missio ns re duc tio ns fro m a ll se c to rs  Pro vide s a ir q ua lity c o -b e ne fits thro ug h b o th c o mma nd a nd c o ntro l re g ula tio ns a nd the Ca p-a nd-T ra de Pro g ra m  Pro te c ts pub lic he a lth thro ug h c lima te le a de rship, c o - b e ne fits, a nd inve stme nt in disa dva nta g e d c o mmunitie s  Minimize s e missio ns le a ka g e thro ug h fre e a llo c a tio n 11

Pro po se d Pla n Me e ts All Ob je c tive s (2 o f 2)  Suppo rts c lima te inve stme nt in disa dva nta g e d c o mmunitie s b y c o ntinuing to pro vide pro c e e ds fo r GGRF  F a c ilita te s sub -na tio na l a nd na tio na l c o lla b o ra tio n thro ug h linka g e o f Ca p-a nd-T ra de pro g ra ms  Suppo rts c o st-e ffe c tive a nd fle xib le c o mplia nc e b y a llo wing tra ding  Suppo rts Cle a n Po we r Pla n a nd o the r fe de ra l a c tio n b e c a use the Ca p- a nd-T ra de pro g ra m c a n b e use d to c o mply with CPP 12

Alte rna tive s E va lua te d  No Cap-and-T ade – re ly o n dire c t me a sure s fo r a ll re duc tio ns r  Car ax – re pla c e Ca p-a nd-T ra de with a c a rb o n ta x bon T  *All Cap-and-T ade – no re fine ry me a sure a nd no e nha nc e me nt r to L o w Ca rb o n F ue l Sta nda rd (ke e p a t 10% re duc tio n in CI )  *Cap-and-T ax – re q uire e a c h fa c ility/ e ntity to re duc e e missio ns a nnua lly with no tra ding , e missio ns wo uld b e ta xe d *F o c us o f disc ussio n fo r to da y 13

All Ca p-a nd-T ra de Alte rna tive  Re lie s o n Ca p-a nd-T ra de  No re fine ry me a sure  No e nha nc e me nt to L o w Ca rb o n F ue l Sta nda rd (ke e p a t 10% re duc tio n in CI )  L e ss c e rta inty a b o ut a mo unt o f g re e nho use g a s re duc tio ns a t re fine rie s 14

Ca p & T a x: Ove rvie w  T he Ca p-a nd-T ra de Pro g ra m wo uld mo stly b e re pla c e d b y a Ca p & T a x Re g ula tio n po st-2020  E missio ns fro m e a c h c o ve re d e ntity wo uld b e sub je c t to a de c lining a nnua l c a p  E a c h me tric to n o f GHG e missio ns fro m c o ve re d e ntitie s wo uld b e sub je c t to a ta x a t the so c ia l c o st o f c a rb o n  Pe na ltie s wo uld b e a sse sse d fo r a ny a nnua l e missio ns a b o ve a n individua l e ntity c a p  No tra ding o f e missio ns a llo wa nc e s a nd no use o f o ffse t c re dits 15

Ca p & T a x: Se c to rs Co ve re d  Pe rc e nta g e o f to ta l e missio ns b y se c to r fro m 2014 GHG e missio ns inve nto ry: I ndustria l (21.1 %) T ra nspo rta tio n (36.1 %) Re c yc ling & Wa ste (2.0 %) Hig h GWP Ga se s (3.9 %) Ag ric ulture (8.2 %) Re side ntia l & Co mme rc ia l (8.7%) E le c tric Po we r (20.0 %) Cap & T ax Option Se c tor s Cove r e d by Cap & T ax Optio n A All se c to rs T ra nspo rta tio n, industry, e le c tric po we r, a nd Optio n B re side ntia l a nd c o mme rc ia l # # T he se a re se c to rs c urre ntly c o ve re d b y the Ca p-a nd-T ra de Pro g ra m. 16

Ca p & T a x: Ac hie ving the 2030 T a rg e t 2021- 2030 Annua l E missions Re duc tions (% ) PRE F E RRE D: Ca p & T a x Se c tor Ca p & T a x Option B – Only Option A –Uniform Ac ross Ca p- a nd- T ra de Se c tors* All Se c tors *T ra nspo rta tio n 4.5 4.7 *I ndustry 4.5 4.7 *E le c tric Po we r 4.5 4.7 *Re side ntia l & 4.5 4.7 Co mme rc ia l Ag ric ulture 4.5 3.5 Hig h GWP Ga se s 4.5 5.4 Re c yc ling & Wa ste 4.5 1.4 17

Ca p & T a x: E xa mple Ca ps fo r a Hypo the tic a l F o o d Pro c e sso r Annua l GHG e missio ns c a ps unde r Ca p & T a x Optio n A fo r a hypo the tic a l fo o d pro c e ssing fa c ility with e missio ns e q ua l to 65,000 MT CO 2 e in 2020. 70,000 missio ns Ca p 60,000 CO 2 e ) 50,000 Annua l GHG E 40,000 (MMT 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 18

Ca p & T a x: E xa mple Ca ps fo r a Hypo the tic a l Na tura l Ga s Supplie r Annua l GHG e missio ns c a ps unde r Ca p & T a x Optio n A fo r a hypo the tic a l na tura l g a s supplie r with e missio ns e q ua l to 20,000,000 MT CO 2 e in 2020. 20,000,000 missio ns Ca p 18,000,000 16,000,000 CO 2 e ) 14,000,000 12,000,000 Annua l GHG E (MMT 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 0 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 19