2013 Planned Community Outlook Presented to: ULI Community - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

2013 Planned Community Outlook Presented to: ULI Community Development Council Gold ULI Spring Council Forum San Diego, California Gregg Logan, Managing Director | MAY 16, 2013 1

OVERVIEW | CASE STUDIES | TRENDS  Overview  Overview • Update on the top selling master-planned communities  Case Studies  Case Studies • Brief synopsis of top communities, what’s selling and why  T  Trends d • What does this mean for 2013? 2

OVERVIEW | CASE STUDIES | TRENDS Sales in the top 20 MPCs have increased over 37% since 2011. Strong gains in communities located in Nevada, Florida, and California, and continued strength in Texas. Rank Rank 2012 2011 % 2012 2011 Name Location Sales Sales Change 1 1 The Villages Ocala, Florida 2,851 2,307 24% 2 4 Orange Co, California 744 93% Irvine Ranch 1,436 3 2 Houston, Texas 945 7% The Woodlands 1,007 4 3 Houston, Texas 862 14% Cinco Ranch 982 5 7 Las Vegas, Nevada 434 118% Mountain’s Edge 948 6 6 8 8 Las Vegas Nevada Las Vegas, Nevada 421 421 81% 81% Providence Providence 760 760 7 15 Houston, Texas 302 100% Riverstone 605 8 5 Alamo Ranch San Antonio, Texas 583 490 19% 9 9 Lakewood Ranch Sarasota, Florida 573 391 47% 10 14 Nocatee Ponte Vedra, Florida 508 313 62% 11 11 Stapleton Denver, Colorado 507 380 33% 12 25 Summerlin Las Vegas, Nevada 471 221 113% 13 6 Brambleton Washington, D.C. 466 454 3% 14 - Lake Nona Orlando, Florida 441 164 169% 15 15 13 13 Bridgeland Bridgeland Houston Texas Houston, Texas 423 423 334 334 27% 27% 16 18 Sienna Plantation Houston, Texas 387 267 45% 17 17 Shadow Creek Ranch Houston, Texas 362 277 31% 17 23 Tampa, Florida 229 58% FishHawk Ranch 362 19 - Houston, Texas - - Woodforest 308 20 10 Houston, Texas 381 -19% Telfair 307 3

OVERVIEW | CASE STUDIES | TRENDS More top communities in Texas than anywhere else, but the most improved are in e as t a ost p o ed a e o e top co u t es a y e e e se, but t e Nevada and Florida : Rank Rank 2012 2011 % 2012 2011 Name Location Sales Sales Change 14 - Lake Nona Orlando, Florida 441 164 169% 5 7 Mountain’s Edge Las Vegas, Nevada 948 434 118% 12 471 25 Summerlin Las Vegas, Nevada 221 113% 7 7 15 15 Riverstone Riverstone Houston Texas Houston, Texas 605 605 302 302 100% 100% 2 4 Irvine Ranch Orange County, California 1,436 744 93% 6 Providence Las Vegas, Nevada 760 8 421 81% 10 14 Nocatee Ponte Vedra, Florida 508 313 62% 4

OVERVIEW | CASE STUDIES | TRENDS • The most successful MPCs are special places in their respective markets, p p p , clearly differentiated from standard subdivisions Attention to detail, higher quality built environment, and superior o lifestyle offering • Once again realizing premiums for lots Rank Rank 2012 2011 % 2012 2011 Name Location Sales Sales Change 1 1 The Villages Ocala, Florida 2,851 2,307 24% 2 Orange Co, California 93% 4 Irvine Ranch 1,436 744 3 2 The Woodlands Houston, Texas 1,007 945 7% 4 4 3 3 Cinco Ranch Cinco Ranch Houston Texas Houston, Texas 982 982 862 862 14% 14% 5 Las Vegas, Nevada 118% 7 Mountain’s Edge 948 434 6 8 Providence Las Vegas, Nevada 760 421 81% 7 15 Riverstone Houston, Texas 605 302 100% 8 San Antonio, Texas 19% 5 Alamo Ranch 583 490 9 9 Lakewood Ranch Sarasota, Florida 573 391 47% 10 14 Nocatee Ponte Vedra, Florida 508 313 62% 5

OVERVIEW | CASE STUDIES | TRENDS #1 The Villages g • 2013 current pace: 500 sales per month • Delivering lifestyle at a fixed price • Average Villager buys three times—buy, move- up move down up, move-down • Community Development District funded infrastructure—like MUDs in Texas • Facilitating interaction—like a college town o Design o Coordinators o Parties, music, fun o Stay and Play o Stay and Play • Retail town centers, bowling, lots of golf • Sophisticated marketing 6

OVERVIEW | CASE STUDIES | TRENDS The Villages Sales and Info Process g Start at a Sales & Information Center one located in each of the Town Centers Door Greeter followed by a Sales Ambassador to guide you to the right place Trolley Tour Personal Tour high level, resident guided tour of overall community product and amenity-specific, targeted one-on-one tour Stay & Play • Length of Time: 4 night minimum – 10 night maximum stay* • Cost: $175/night peak season (winter); $100/night off season (spring/summer) • Where you stay: A 3 Bedroom/2 Bath Gated Villa • Included in your stay: A golf cart, 2 bikes, and activities schedule tailored to individual interests *Alternative to stay in one of the four hotels if you want to stay fewer nights (not recommended) Alternative to stay in one of the four hotels if you want to stay fewer nights (not recommended) 7

OVERVIEW | CASE STUDIES | TRENDS #2 Irvine Ranch • Thoughtful long-term planning, great schools, abundant parks, trails and open space, retail centers, proximity to job centers • Fostering Fostering high high quality quality of of life life and and long-term long term investment value • Lots of research on what their consumers really want and value • New Village opening in 2014 will have seven New Village opening in 2014 will have seven builder programs at the start • 2013 outlook: demand as strong as 2004 and 2005, but don’t have enough lots, so watch prices increase • Buyers: 50% move-up within Irvine; family-oriented; seeing increase in ethnic and foreign buyers • Evolving product and floor plans • Solar Solar program program is is their their biggest biggest new ne green green investment • Attached product is the fastest growing segment: o First time buyers see rent getting too expensive and b buying seems safe again i f i 8

OVERVIEW | CASE STUDIES | TRENDS Houston MPCs • Sales up 25%+ Houston but not in mature communities such as The Woodlands and Cinco Ranch o Less product diversification o Approaching build-out • Houston communities with fewer land constraints such as Bridgeland and Riverstone increased sales above the market • Demand is up but lot development continues to lag absorption • Lot inventory is at its lowest level in nearly 10 years—true in Austin and Dallas as well y y y • Builders skeptical that MPCs can keep up with demand and are self-developing smaller communities in the absence of sufficient new replacement master-planned communities Ri Riverstone, Johnson Development J h D l 9

OVERVIEW | CASE STUDIES | TRENDS #3 The Woodlands; #15 Bridgeland ; g • #3 The Woodlands selling its last lots, has the most starts of any community in Houston (Howard Hughes) • The Woodlands historically negotiated lot sales with builders but this year bid them out builders but this year bid them out o Record prices, 100% above prior negotiations o High-end of market has come roaring back; want large lots • Outlook: o Strong job growth and new lot/home scarcity increasing demand, will drive up prices at least 6% • #15 Bridgeland co-branding with The Woodlands beneficial o Strong across all price points and homes in $400,000s (70’ lots) especially o Village Builders increased price per foot for $300,000s product and doubled sales o TND TND neighborhood i hb h d doing d i extraordinarily t di il well—better ll b tt architecture sells  Product planned as move-down, but appealing to broad segments of the market   Next up: add a rear loaded duplex product as entry Next up: add a rear-loaded duplex product as entry- Bridgeland Activity Center Amenity level and 30’ lot product near retail village 10

OVERVIEW | CASE STUDIES | TRENDS #5 Mountain’s Edge; #6 Providence g ; • Top Las Vegas MPCs, came back twice as fast as the LV market • Focus Property Group managed to keep them in the top 10 fastest selling MPCs throughout the downturn • Why? Why? o Keeing up aggressive marketing campaign o Social media o Continued to open new parks, finish infrastructure o Builders offering features not in resales B ild ff i f t t i l  More energy savings; mother-in-law suites; two-family layouts; single-story, etc. o Keeping up special event schedule o Reductions in resale inventory Reductions in resale inventory o Low interest rates o Brokers pushing buyer to new home communities o Builders paying them incentives o Pent up demand; retirees from California P t d d ti f C lif i  2013 Outlook: Stronger than 2012; 165 sales in the first two months of the year in Mountain’s Edge and 93 in Providence  Finished lots are gone, its all raw dirt sales to Builders, every deal is multiple bids, buying bigger chunks than last year d l i lti l bid b i bi h k th l t 11