1993-2013 : 20 000 nuclear w arheads to be dismantled (500 tons of - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

1993-2013 : 20 000 nuclear w arheads to be dismantled (500 tons of HEU) 2011, August 25 : 17 000 w arheads already dismantled (425 tons of HEU)

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Dismantling (1992) HEU (1993) Energy - SWU Feed (1999) Feed - UF6 3

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• Soviet Foreign debt : from $18 bn in 1984 to $ 70 bn in 1991 • Industrial production : - 35% in June 1993 (compared to 1989) • Investments : - 45% in 1992 (compared to 1991) • Inflation : +2.600% in 1992 (26% monthly rate in Oct. 1993) • 1992, January 1 st : 1 $ = 213 RUR 01.07.92 : The State decrees the end of the Ruble/Dollar parity 1993, January 18 th : 1 $ = 1193 RUR 6

• June 1998 : IMF’s assistance plan ( $ 22.6 bn ) • 1998, August 1 st : Total amount of unpaid wages = RUB 12.5 bn • Inflation rate : 84% • Urals crude price : <10 $ per barrel in August 1998 • 1998, August 17 th : Russian debt default. 4 fold devaluations of the Ruble : from 6 RUB/1 $ to 24 RUB/1 $ • 1999, August 9 th : V. Putin becomes the 4 th Prime Minister in 18 months • October 1999 : Russian debt reaches $ 17,38 bn >> 2020 7

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• 50% of the U.S. civil demand or • 163.000 T from which 118.000 12% of the world demand T purchased by Cameco, Cogema (Areva) and Nukem • Value : $ 8 bn • Value : $ 4 bn or 30 tons of HEU / year (full years) from which 6.000 T purchased by AREVA, Cameco and Nukem = 46 X 1000 MW reactors capacity = 37 X 1000 MW reactors capacity 10

Potential electricity Energy equivalents to pow er Source : USEC 11

HEU-LEU agreement represents • World NPP (nuclear power plant) demand (2008 and 2009) : 45.8 m SWU/year • Production capacity : • In France (AREVA) � George Besse 1 : 10.8 m SWU/year • In USA (USEC) � PGDP : 8 m SWU/year • In Russia � 4 facilities : 27 m SWU/year ? 12

HEU-LEU agreement represents HEU feed component = Source : World Nuclear 13 30% of the 10 largest mines production Association

HEU feed as a percentage of world demand Source : World Nuclear Association 14

HEU feed as a percentage of U.S. demand Source : U.S. Energy Information Administration 15

• Uranium Mines • Russia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan • Enrichment • 40-45% of the world production capacity • Facilities (combines) 16

After 2013 ? Introduction of some other stocks of HEU (USA-Russia) on the market ? Plutonium stocks ? 17

Russia and USA ow n 95% of the w orld’s nuclear w arheads • Warhead stocks (estimations), in units • HEU & Pu stocks (1991), in tons • Operational w eapon stocks (March 2006), in units 18

• Operational w eapon stocks, in units • Objective 2018 19

• Estimated w orld stocks : about 260 T • 1995 : 50 T of Pu in excess in Russia and USA (B.Clinton/B.Yeltsin) • MOX conversion project + vitrification program • 2007 and 2010 : G.W.Bush (B.Yeltsin) then B.Obama (D.Medvedev) • Recycling agreement concerning 34 T in both countries • Important energy content for Rosatom • 1 g Pu = 3 T oil 34 T Pu = 102 m T of oil • 2030 (?) : Pu to be burnt in Fast Breeder Reactors 20

• Multiple advantages non-proliferation energy feed dollars policy • Importance of the figures / financial cost of ! the Cold War • Military stocks = potential (secondary) energy supply, but possibly destabilizing the ! primary market 21

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