11/3/16 AFRICAN FUTURES PAPER NO 19 Jakkie Cilliers Institute for Security Studies jcilliers@issafrica.org @jakkiecilliers @ISSAfrica SCOPE 1. The International Futures forecasting system (IFs) 2. Four datasets on democracy 3. The history of democracy and current status in Africa 4. What does democracy contribute? 5. Scenarios for the future: Africa, South Africa and Ethiopia 6. Video 7. Conclusion @jakkiecilliers 2 1
11/3/16 THE INTERNATIONAL FUTURES FORECASTING SYSTEM (IFS) IS … • A dynamic, global model that integrates data and outcomes across development systems. • Historical data for over 3 500 data series for 186 countries • Allows: 1. Historical trends 2. Current path/base case forecasts 3. Alternative future scenarios 3 3 IFS MAJOR SUB-MODULES 4 2
11/3/16 EXPANDING RELATIONSHIPS 5 CONNECTIONS FOR ONE COUNTRY 6 3
11/3/16 SCOPE 1. The International Futures forecasting system (IFs) 2. Four datasets on democracy 3. The history of democracy and current status in Africa 4. What does democracy contribute? 5. Scenarios for the future: Africa, South Africa and Ethiopia 6. Video 7. Conclusion @jakkiecilliers 7 USED FOUR DATASETS @jakkiecilliers 8 4
11/3/16 SCOPE 1. The International Futures forecasting system (IFs) 2. Four datasets on democracy 3. The history of democracy and current status in Africa 4. What does democracy contribute? 5. Scenarios for the future: Africa, South Africa and Ethiopia 6. Video 7. Conclusion @jakkiecilliers 9 WORLD: HISTORY OF DEMOCRACY 6 0.6 4 0.5 2 0.4 0 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 V-Dem Polity -2 0.3 -4 0.2 -6 0.1 -8 -10 0 World Polity World V-Dem 10 5
11/3/16 FREEDOM HOUSE: AFRICA 12 ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT 14 6
11/3/16 POLITY IV 15 DEMOCRACY IN AFRICA OCCURING AT EVER LOWER LEVELS OF INCOME 16 16 14 14 12 12 Thousand of 2015 US$ 10 10 Polity score 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 GDPPC Africa GDPPC world Polity Africa Polity world 16 7
11/3/16 THE AFRICAN EXPERIENCE WITH DEMOCRACY An intrinsic ‘good’ but democracy has been undermined by: • Association with neo-liberal economic policies • Western support to dictators and authoritarian states • Weakness of the African state - process of delayed state formation - African states simultaneously have to provide security, develop capacity and become more inclusive Neopatrimonialism has adapted to democracy – African elites go through motions of elections but frustrate the essence Rise of China vs relative decline in influence of Africa’s traditional development partners – African elites (again) have alternatives But hugely popular (Afrobarometer) 17 SCOPE 1. The International Futures forecasting system (IFs) 2. Four datasets on democracy 3. The history of democracy and current status in Africa 4. What does democracy contribute? 5. Scenarios for the future: Africa, South Africa and Ethiopia 6. Video 7. Conclusion @jakkiecilliers 18 8
11/3/16 TWO KEY QUESTIONS 1. The sequencing debate: what comes first, democracy or development? 2. Statistically, what elements of democracy matter for human and economic development? 20 TWO KEY QUESTIONS 1. The sequencing debate: what comes first, democracy or development? - Democracy and good governance accompany development, not prerequisites. - Democracy is not a necessary byproduct of growth, but higher GDP per capita prevents democratic backsliding - Nature of governing elites important – need for a developmental state at low levels of development - Development often chaotic, corrupt and violent – easier to manage without democracy - As countries develop, democracy becomes more important to sustain productivity improvements and hence growth 21 9
11/3/16 TWO KEY QUESTIONS 1. The sequencing debate: what comes first, democracy or development? 2. Statistically, what elements of democracy matter for human and economic development? 23 TWO KEY QUESTIONS 2. Statistically, what elements of democracy impact upon human and economic development? Electoral aspects of Citizen empowerment democracy aspects of democracy Clean, competitive elections Participation, deliberation and egalitarianism Chief executive that is selected Female empowerment through elections Suffrage that is extensive Strong and diversified civil society Political and civil society Equality before the law and organizations able to operate freely individual liberty Freedom of expression including access to alternative information Thus a state-centred vs a society-centred view of development 24 10
11/3/16 SCOPE 1. The International Futures forecasting system (IFs) 2. Four datasets on democracy 3. The history of democracy and current status in Africa 4. What does democracy contribute? 5. Scenarios for the future: Africa, South Africa and Ethiopia 6. Video 7. Conclusion @jakkiecilliers 25 WORLD: HISTORY OF DEMOCRACY 6 0.6 4 0.5 2 0.4 0 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 V-Dem Polity -2 0.3 -4 0.2 -6 0.1 -8 -10 0 World Polity World V-Dem 26 11
11/3/16 THE FUTURE • Two scenarios: • Fourth Wave • Authoritarian Regression • Short/medium-term democratic regression likely due to: failure of Arab Spring; impact of US invasion of Iraq; continued impact of 2008 global recession; rise of populism; and global rebalancing • But waves have crests and troughs - long-term global trend is towards more democracy • Africa? • Huge popular demand, but traditional development partners have lost leverage while authoritarian development model popular amongst leaders 27 POLITY IV: HISTORY AND FORECAST 18 16 14 12 Polity scale 0-20 10 8 6 4 2 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 Africa Regress Africa 4th Wave World Regress World - 4th Wave 28 12
11/3/16 IMPACT OF DEMOCRACY IN AFRICA 29 AFRICA GDP IN MER 12 000 9 551 10 000 8 285 8 000 Bn 2015 US$ 6 000 4 000 2 681 2 681 2 000 0 2016 2043 Regression 4th Wave 11/2/16 30 30 13
11/3/16 AFRICA GDP PER CAPITA IN PPP 9 000 7 666 8 000 6 952 7 000 6 000 4 822 4 822 2015 US$ 5 000 4 000 3 000 2 000 1 000 0 2016 2043 Regression 4th Wave 11/2/16 31 31 AFRICA EXTREME POVERTY NUMBERS 2 500 2 127 2 000 Millions of people 1 500 1 212 1 000 598 530 467 467 500 0 2016 2043 Pop Regression 4th Wave 11/2/16 33 33 14
11/3/16 ETHIOPIA AND THE POTENTIAL GAINS FROM DEMOCRACY 37 SA AND ETHIOPIA ON POLITY 8 6 4 Polity score (-10 to +10) 2 0 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 -2 -4 -6 -8 SA 4th Wave SA Regression Ethiopia 4th Wave Ethiopia Regression 11/3/16 38 38 15
11/3/16 GDP IN MER 1200 1 049 1000 885 800 Bn 2015 US$ 600 474 474 362 400 317 200 50 50 0 2016 2043 SA 4th Wave SA Regression Eth 4th Wave Eth Regression 11/3/16 39 39 GDP PER CAPITA IN PPP 25000 20 859 20000 18 614 15000 13 038 13 038 2015 US$ 10000 4 423 4 049 5000 1 612 1 612 0 2016 2043 SA 4th Wave SA Regression Eth 4th Wave Eth Regression 11/3/16 40 40 16
11/3/16 POVERTY RATE 25 24 24 20 17 16 16 15 15 Percent 12 10 10 5 0 2016 2043 SA 4th Wave SA Regression Eth 4th Wave Eth Regression 11/3/16 41 41 SCOPE 1. The International Futures forecasting system (IFs) 2. Four datasets on democracy 3. The history of democracy and current status in Africa 4. What does democracy contribute? 5. Scenarios for the future: Africa, South Africa and Ethiopia 6. Video 7. Conclusion @jakkiecilliers 47 17
11/3/16 SCOPE 1. The International Futures forecasting system (IFs) 2. Four datasets on democracy 3. The history of democracy and current status in Africa 4. What does democracy contribute? 5. Scenarios for the future: South Africa and Ethiopia 6. Video 7. Conclusion @jakkiecilliers 49 18
11/3/16 CONCLUSION 1 Over the long term democracy provides • A mechanism to check power of elite • A separation of powers • Protection of human rights and the rule of law Sustained growth at higher levels of income likely require democracy to continue to grow. But Substantive democracies emerge over time and require significant resources (and growth) to mature 50 CONCLUSION 2 • Democracy is not the dominant form of governance in Africa but positive trend - demand is high • Likely a global democratic regression – what will happen in Africa? • It is possible to quantify the impact of democracy on growth and human development, BUT • Statistically the “electoral” aspect of democracy improves human development and growth while those related to citizen empowerment do not 51 19
11/3/16 STAY INFORMED www.issafrica.org @ISSAfrica 52 20
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