10/26/16 AFRICAN FUTURES PAPER NO 19 Jakkie Cilliers Institute for Security Studies jcilliers@issafrica.org @jakkiecilliers @ISSAfrica SCOPE 1. The International Futures forecasting system (IFs) 2. Four datasets on democracy 3. The history of democracy and current status in Africa 4. What does democracy contribute? 5. Scenarios for the future: Africa and Ethiopia 6. Video 7. Conclusion @jakkiecilliers 2 1
10/26/16 THE INTERNATIONAL FUTURES FORECASTING SYSTEM (IFS) IS … • A dynamic, global model that integrates data and outcomes across development systems. • Historical data for over 3 500 data series for 186 countries • Allows: 1. Historical trends 2. Current path/base case forecasts 3. Alternative future scenarios 3 3 IFS MAJOR SUB-MODULES 4 2
10/26/16 EXPANDING RELATIONSHIPS 5 CONNECTIONS FOR ONE COUNTRY 6 3
10/26/16 SCOPE 1. The International Futures forecasting system (IFs) 2. Four datasets on democracy 3. The history of democracy and current status in Africa 4. What does democracy contribute? 5. Scenarios for the future: Africa and Ethiopia 6. Video 7. Conclusion @jakkiecilliers 7 USED FOUR DATASETS @jakkiecilliers 8 4
10/26/16 SCOPE 1. The International Futures forecasting system (IFs) 2. Four datasets on democracy 3. The history of democracy and current status in Africa 4. What does democracy contribute? 5. Scenarios for the future: Africa and Ethiopia 6. Video 7. Conclusion @jakkiecilliers 9 WORLD: HISTORY OF DEMOCRACY 6 0.6 4 0.5 2 0.4 0 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 V-Dem Polity -2 0.3 -4 0.2 -6 0.1 -8 -10 0 World Polity World V-Dem 10 5
10/26/16 FREEDOM HOUSE: AFRICA 12 ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT 14 6
10/26/16 POLITY IV 15 DEMOCRACY IN AFRICA OCCURING AT EVER LOWER LEVELS OF INCOME 16 16 14 14 12 12 Thousand of 2015 US$ 10 10 Polity score 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 GDPPC Africa GDPPC world Polity Africa Polity world 16 7
10/26/16 THE AFRICAN EXPERIENCE WITH DEMOCRACY An intrinsic ‘good’ but democracy has been undermined by: • Association with neo-liberal economic policies • Western support to dictators and authoritarian states • Weakness of the African state - process of delayed state formation - African states simultaneously have to provide security, develop capacity and become more inclusive Neopatrimonialism has adapted to democracy – African elites go through motions of elections but frustrate the essence Rise of China vs relative decline in influence of Africa’s traditional development partners – African elites (again) have alternatives But hugely popular (Afrobarometer) 17 SCOPE 1. The International Futures forecasting system (IFs) 2. Four datasets on democracy 3. The history of democracy and current status in Africa 4. What does democracy contribute? 5. Scenarios for the future: Africa and Ethiopia 6. Video 7. Conclusion @jakkiecilliers 18 8
10/26/16 TWO KEY QUESTIONS 1. The sequencing debate: what comes first, democracy or development? 2. What elements of democracy matter for human and economic development? 20 THE SEQUENCING DEBATE 1. The sequencing debate: what comes first, democracy or development? - Democracy and good governance accompany development, not prerequisites. - Democracy is not a necessary byproduct of growth, but higher GDP per capita prevents democratic backsliding - Nature of governing elites important – need for a developmental state at low levels of development - Development often chaotic, corrupt and violent – easier to manage without democracy - As countries develop, democracy becomes more important to sustain productivity improvements and hence growth 21 9
10/26/16 THE SEQUENCING DEBATE Institutions Personal rule Competing Formation of a tribes or security ethnic community that Growth of groups, expands, state capacity shifting defends, Expanded to regulate, alegiances establishes inclusion as tax, and borders order – often a part of social administer & violent process contract provide services Time 22 TWO KEY QUESTIONS 1. The sequencing debate: what comes first, democracy or development? 2. What elements of democracy matter for human and economic development? 23 10
10/26/16 WHAT ELEMENTS OF DEMOCRACY ARE IMPORTANT FOR DEVELOPMENT? 2. What elements of democracy matter for human and economic development? Electoral aspects of Citizen empowerment democracy aspects of democracy Clean, competitive elections Participation, deliberation and egalitarianism Chief executive that is selected Female empowerment through elections Suffrage that is extensive Strong and diversified civil society Political and civil society Equality before the law and organizations able to operate freely individual liberty Freedom of expression including access to alternative information Thus a state-centred vs a society-centred view of development 24 SCOPE 1. The International Futures forecasting system (IFs) 2. Four datasets on democracy 3. The history of democracy and current status in Africa 4. What does democracy contribute? 5. Scenarios for the future: Africa and Ethiopia 6. Video 7. Conclusion @jakkiecilliers 25 11
10/26/16 WORLD: HISTORY OF DEMOCRACY 6 0.6 4 0.5 2 0.4 0 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 V-Dem Polity -2 0.3 -4 0.2 -6 0.1 -8 -10 0 World Polity World V-Dem 26 THE FUTURE • Two scenarios: • Fourth Wave • Authoritarian Regression • Short/medium-term democratic regression likely due to: failure of Arab Spring; impact of US invasion of Iraq; continued impact of 2008 global recession; rise of populism; and global rebalancing • But waves have crests and troughs - long-term global trend is towards more democracy • Africa? • Huge popular demand, but traditional development partners have lost leverage while authoritarian development model popular amongst leaders 27 12
10/26/16 POLITY IV: HISTORY AND FORECAST 18 16 14 12 Polity scale 0-20 10 8 6 4 2 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 Africa Regress Africa 4th Wave World Regress World - 4th Wave 28 SCOPE 1. The International Futures forecasting system (IFs) 2. Four datasets on democracy 3. The history of democracy and current status in Africa 4. What does democracy contribute? 5. Scenarios for the future: Africa and Ethiopia 6. Video 7. Conclusion @jakkiecilliers 29 13
10/26/16 AFRICA: DIFFERENCE IN GDP (MER) 14 000 11 581 12 000 10 000 Bn 2015 US$ 8 000 6 000 4 000 2 506 2 000 178 0 2030 2050 2070 10/26/16 31 31 14
10/26/16 AFRICA: DIFFERENCE IN GDP PER CAPITA 4500 4 068 4000 3500 3000 2015 US$ 2500 2000 1500 1 214 1000 500 140 0 2030 2050 2070 10/26/16 32 32 AFRICA: DIFFERENCE IN POVERTY 2030 2050 2070 0 -11 -20 -40 -60 Milions of people -80 -91 -100 -120 -140 -146 -160 10/26/16 33 33 15
10/26/16 ETHIOPIA AND THE POTENTIAL GAINS FROM DEMOCRACY 34 SIZE OF ETHIOPIA’S ECONOMY (MER) BY 2043 370 $361 bn 360 350 340 Bn 2015 US$ 330 $326 bn 320 $316 bn 310 300 290 Dem Regression Current Path 4th Wave 10/26/16 35 35 16
10/26/16 GDP PER CAPITA BY 2043 4.5 $4 410 4.4 4.3 Thosand 2015 US$ 4.2 $4 110 4.1 $4 030 4 3.9 3.8 Dem Regression Current Path 4th Wave 10/26/16 36 36 ETHIOPIA: MILLIONS OF EXTREMELY POOR PEOPLE BY 2043 23.0 21.9m 22.0 21.1m 21.0 20.0 Millions 19.0 18.3m 18.0 17.0 16.0 Dem Regress Current Path 4th Wave 10/26/16 38 38 17
10/26/16 SCOPE 1. The International Futures forecasting system (IFs) 2. Four datasets on democracy 3. The history of democracy and current status in Africa 4. What does democracy contribute? 5. Scenarios for the future: Africa and Ethiopia 6. Video 7. Conclusion @jakkiecilliers 39 CONCLUSION 1 Over the long term democracy provides • A mechanism to check power of elite • A separation of powers • Protection of human rights and the rule of law Sustained growth at higher levels of income likely require democracy to continue to grow. But Substantive democracies emerge over time and require significant resources (and growth) to mature 40 18
10/26/16 CONCLUSION 2 • Democracy is not the dominant form of governance in Africa but positive trend - demand is high • Likely a global democratic regression – what will happen in Africa? • The “electoral” aspect of democracy improves human development and growth • Aspects related to citizen empowerment do not • It is possible to quantify the impact of democracy on growth and human development 41 STAY INFORMED www.issafrica.org @ISSAfrica 42 19
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