WORKSHOP ZCAS / MONC̨Ā O Governance and Policy for Disaster Risk Reduction and Adaptation to Extremes of Climate Variability Eduardo Mario Mendiondo* National Center for Monitoring and Alerts of Natural Disasters Brazilian Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation - CEMADEN, MCTI, Brazil * also Professor at University of Sao Paulo, EESC/USP
Natural Disasters in Brazil: over 95% of disasters are climate related Forest fires, Floods, Droughts, Floods, Flash Drought, Mass movements Floods Wildfires, Flash Floods , Wildfires, Floods, Erosions Floods, Droughts, Landslides, Debris Flows Flash Floods, Wind Storms, Hails, Landslides
Natural Disasters and Population Source: IBGE, 2010 Governance & Policies for: • Disaster Risk Reduction and Adaptation* • Urban Water Management • Climate Change, Agriculture and Water • Planning and Scenarios • Water State-of-the-Art in São Paulo State • Urban Planning • International Research Cooperation *Source: Brazilian Atlas of Natural Disasters 1991-2012
Atlas Brasil, 2010
South American Community Water Availability 2000-2100 Year 2000 We are here! 2050 2025 2100 2100 2100 2100 Cenário 2: Strategic Scenarios 2000-2100 of community freshwater availability VS Gross Net Product per Capita for South America. Source: adapted from Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2005)
Sistemas analisados do PISF/ANA
Future Water Demand at Selected River Basins at NorthEast Brazil: Source: PISF/ANA (Braz. Water Authority) & NLTA/World Bank NLTA/World Bank* m3/s 140 PISF/ANA 120 100 80 60 40 Jaguaribe (+) Jaguaribe (-) 20 Piranhas-Açu (+) Piranhas-Açu (-) Ano 0 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
1 st Motivation Question for GOVERNANCE AND POLICY: HOW can we identify and split Operation & Maintenance’s Costs of Water Allocation under Strategic Adaptation Regional Planning for Disaster Risk Reductions and under change (i.e. climate, habits, population, land use, etc)? * Fonte: E. M. Mendiondo & Valdés (2002) Sustainable Development Strategies for Water Systems, In: II Int. Conf. New Trends in Environmental and Safety, Capri, Italy
2 nd Motivation Question for GOVERNANCE AND POLICY: Can we regionalize specific O&M for water allocation under different strategic adaptation regional plans? Médio Jaguaribe Baixo Banabuiu Alto Jaguaribe Jaguaribe Fonte: Mendiondo & Valdés (2002) Sustainable Development Strategies for Water Salgado Systems, In: II Int. Conf. New Trends in Environmental and Safety, Capri, Italy
3 rd Motivation Question for GOVERNANCE AND POLICY: How to assess REGIONAL AND LOCAL RESILIENCE of Municipalities under climate change and different regional plans? Número de municípios do Ceará sob estresse hídrico no período 2000-2025 Source: Araujo et al (2004)
Water scarcity scenarios 2010-2050 for Middle Tiete River Basin, Sao Paulo-SP (Mendiondo, 2008) A.N.A.(2002)
Water scarcity scenarios 2010-2050 for Middle Tiete River Basin, Sao Paulo-SP (Mendiondo, 2008) A.N.A.(2002) UGRHI 13: Tietê-Jacaré Oferta = Q7,10 Oferta até Q95% 1200 Uso consuntivo Uso não-consuntivo 1000 m3 / ano.habitante 800 600 400 200 0 2010 2010 2025 2025 2050 2050
Elements of Comprehensive Governance and Policy for Disaster Risk Reduction based on Hyogo’s and Sendai’s Framework for Action 2005 -2030
National Strategy for Disaster Risk Management INMET, INPE, DECEA/MD CPRM ANA COMMUNITY MI, MCid e IBGE & STATE CENTRES Geological Hydrological Local feedback Disaster Risk & Hydrometeorology Vulnerability Vulnerability Analyses information CEMADEN information Mapping UNIVERSITIES & RESEARCH INSTITUTES Knowledge transfer, methods and hypothesis-testing, applied research databases on natural Monitoring and disasters (vulnerability, exposure, hazards, risks) Early Warning MS, GSI, MT, Army Force CENAD CIVIL Alert & Logistics DEFENSE Contingency & Response Plans
Institutional Framework International Alliances & Partners National Partners: MME/CPRM MMA/ANA MCIDADES IBGE Centro Nacional de CEMADEN INPE Gerenciamento de INMET Riscos e Desastres DECEA (CENAD/MI) UNIVERSITIES STATE CENTRES MUNICIPALITIES COMMUNITIESS Other Partners for Monitoring & Early Warning of Natural Disasters BRAZILIAN BANK POSTS Co. COTER (Armed Forces) MOBILE & TELECOM Co. MEC (Education Min.) CTI (Tech. Center of Information) MS (Health Min.)
Monitoring & Early Warning at CEMADEN Multidisciplinary Team: • Geologists • Geographers • • Started in December, 2011 Engineers • Hydrologists • 24-h, 365-day a year monitoring • Meteorologists • IT professionals • Early warning reports on landslides, mudslides, floods, floodings, flashfloods and severe drought impacts in Semi Arid Region • 921 municipalities monitored in Brazil
“ Community raingauge" pilot project LOCAL ACTION: RAIN GAUGE AT LOCAL COMMUNITIES: A CITIZEN’S NETWORK FOR EARLY WARNING Over 1000 raingauges installed in communities exposed to high disaster risk Enhancing risk perception and education for sustainability *Updated March 2015
Governance & Policy Proposals http://www.watergovernance.org/why
4th Motivation for Governance & Policy: how much will (urgent) water saving for Sao Paulo Metropolitan Region cost? 12 10 Demand Management Plan until year 2050. Total Saving Water until year 2050 = 17.6 m3/s. 8 Water Withdrawal from Cantareira System in April 2015 = 15.6 m3/s 6 4 2 0 Reducing Mean Reducing Water Leaks Ecosystem-Based Consumption per Capita ("from Water Supply Adaptation with PES ("from Consumers") Company") ("Government Policy Part") 0,70 U$ 1.2 billion 0,60 Demand Management Plan until year 2050: compared to 0,50 São Paulo Metropolitan Region GDP(%) 0,40 U$ 0.6 billion 0,30 0,20 U$ 0.14 billion 0,10 0,00 Reducing Mean Reducing Water Leaks Ecosystem-Based Consumption per Capita ("from Water Supply Adaptation with PES ("from Consumers") Company") ("Government Policy Part")
Source: http://practicalaction.org/blog/author/colinmcquistan/
World cloud reflecting the content of the Sendai Framework
Governance and Policy for Disaster Risk Reduction and Adaptation to Extremes of Climate Variability
Monitoring & Early Warning Conditions (CEMADEN/MCTI) April 2015
RISK AVERSION SOLUTIONS AT SHORT-TERM: Monitoring and Early Warning Source: CEMADEN – www.cemaden.gov.br
RISK AVERSION SOLUTIONS AT LONG-TERM: Actors of change Land Wat. No Scenarios Climate Optimal damage and premium (R$.km -2 ) from use Avail. change Cli X adaptation mechanisms of securitization and ClUso X X ClDis X X risk-transfer schemes (drought insurance) ClUsDi X X X SMud X Example: Piracicaba Basin (simulated area = 10.929,9 km 2 , with inner sub-basins) Source: Laurentis (2012).
Governance and Policies related to Disaster Risk Reduction Framework • International cooperation in support of a post 2015 framework for disaster risk • Governing Disaster Risk - Overcoming Challenges • Public Investment in Disaster Risk Reduction • Reducing Disaster Risk in Urban Settings • Mobilizing Women’s Leadership in Disaster Risk Reduction • Risk sensitive Investments • Public Private Partnerships • Inclusive Disaster Risk Management • Risk Identification and Assessment
CEMADEN/ MCTI’s Governance & Policy for BRICS 2015-2018 Plan with: • Sendai recovery as a model for turning disaster tragedies into sustainable future, • Majority of natural disasters are climate related, • Global agendas look for pre-emptive spending to reduce disaster risks, • Risk transfer is key to raising world’s disaster resilience • Early warning saves lives but communities need targeted, useful information, • Involvement at local level is critical to reducing disaster risk • Reducing disaster risk is vital to end poverty, • Banks & governments need global innovation challenge to boost understanding of disaster risks” • Post 2015 framework on disaster risk reduction • National and regional plans on disaster risk management • Lessons to learn from Resilient Regions with Pilot Projects
Tha hank nk you ou! Edua Eduardo do M Mar ario io Mend Mendiond iondo ww www.cema .cemade den.go n.gov.br .br & & emm@ce emm@cemad maden en.go .gov.br .br
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