WINTER 2017-18 Hows It Going So Far? Will Real Winter Return - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

WINTER 2017-18 How’s It Going So Far? Will “Real Winter” Return Anytime Soon? Tim Bardsley Senior Service Hydrologist – NWS Reno Tim.bardsley@noaa.gov Reno National Weather Service Forecasting for the Sierra and western Nevada since 1905

2016-17 vs 2017-18 – Storm Track Jan 2017 Dec 2017 Reno National Weather Service 2 Forecasting for the Sierra and western Nevada since 1905

2016-17 vs 2017-18 – Storm Track Jan 2017 Reno National Weather Service 3 Forecasting for the Sierra and western Nevada since 1905

How is Winter 2017-18 Going So Far? Reno National Weather Service 4 Forecasting for the Sierra and western Nevada since 1905

How is Winter 2017-18 Going So Far? Reno National Weather Service 5 Forecasting for the Sierra and western Nevada since 1905

How is Winter 2017-18 Going So Far? Observed Water Year streamflow to date Reno National Weather Service 6 Forecasting for the Sierra and western Nevada since 1905

Odds of Dry vs Wet Winter Using Historical Analogs Source – NRCS Snow Survey Reno National Weather Service 7 Forecasting for the Sierra and western Nevada since 1905

Rest of Winter: Knowns & Unknowns. Elevated Risk for Flooding AR, Wind, Snow Potentials Particularly Cold, Warm Drought Is Still Over (for now) April-July Runoff Likely below average Reno National Weather Service 8 Forecasting for the Sierra and western Nevada since 1905

So, When Should I Freakout!? Reno National Weather Service 9 Forecasting for the Sierra and western Nevada since 1905

Atmospheric Rivers - 5 to 10 Days February 9, 2017 Major AR Landfall – The “Second Flood” Reno National Weather Service 10 Forecasting for the Sierra and western Nevada since 1905

Floods vs Blizzards vs Wind - 2 to 4 Days Reno National Weather Service 11 Forecasting for the Sierra and western Nevada since 1905

Snow Level Impacts on Rivers, Flooding Reno National Weather Service 12 Forecasting for the Sierra and western Nevada since 1905

Tricky - Least Predictable Snow Hazards Inside Slider Reno National Weather Service 13 Forecasting for the Sierra and western Nevada since 1905

So, How About the Next 1-3 Weeks? Reno National Weather Service 14 Forecasting for the Sierra and western Nevada since 1905

...Potent Atmospheric River Storm Wed PM - Fri Highlights Up Front Strong, damaging winds possible Wed PM & Thu. ★ Gusts 50-80 mph lower elevations Gusts > 100 mph over Ridges Sierra snow, whiteout conditions Thu & Fri ★ Very poor travel conditions 1-2 feet possible ★ Difficult Fri AM commute likely western NV Frida Plan ahead – 1-3 inches of snow Storm #2: Storm #1 Cold storm possible Sun-Mon More storms on horizon? ★ Wed PM - Friday Tuesday (Lower confidence) More Sierra snow Snow possible below 5000 feet Storm #3: Early Gusty winds 30-60 mph. next week. Small hint of a storm the last week of January. ★ Reno National Weather Service 15 Forecasting for the Sierra and western Nevada since 1905

Tim.bardsley@noaa.gov 775-673-8100 Reno National Weather Service 16 Forecasting for the Sierra and western Nevada since 1905