Technical Meeting to Discuss the Concept of an Alternative Energy and Energy Storage Hub for Western Macedonia Wind Energy in the region around the lignite center of Western Macedonia: Current status, prospects and benefits Hellenic Wind Energy Association, ELETAEN Panagiotis G. Papastamatiou, CEO Athens, 30 October 2019
The Hellenic Wind Energy Association, HWEA / ELETAEN Founded in 1990 • National representative of European wind energy • association WindEurope Members: Companies and Scientists of wind power • sector Nonprofit Organization (NPO) • Scope Express the well-meant interests of the industry and the market by acting as a think-tank and dialogue forum with scientific documentation and competence Promote the scientific research, technology and applications of wind energy 2
Total wind capacity connected to the grid (MW) per year 3025 2825 2650 2368 2135 1976 1864 1749 1636 1323 1155 996 849 749 602 480 408 293 276 237 107 39 27 27 S1 1994 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2019 The HWEA Wind Energy Statistics take into account the wind capacity which is in commercial or test operation in Greece and it is based on sources from the market actors. 3
Wind capacity (MW) per year & per manufacturer 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1987 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 -50 ACCIONA ENERCON NEG Micon NORDEX VESTAS OTHERS SGRE General Electric EWT LEITWIND 4
Spatial distribution of operating wind MWs Total wind capacity in Greece, 6/2019 : 3025MW out of which…. Wind capacity in Macedonia & Thrace : 599MW or 20% of total out of which Wind capacity in Western Macedonia : 61MW or 2% of total 5
The end of the lignite era… 6
…and the beginning of the clean energy era Source: Global wind atlas 7
Wind Energy development in Western Macedonia (1) Projects with: Operation License : 61MW 8
Wind Energy development in Western Macedonia (2) Projects with: Operation License : 61MW Installation Lic. : 152MW 9
Wind Energy development in Western Macedonia (3) Projects with: Operation License : 61MW Installation Lic. : 152MW EIA Approval : 796MW 10
Wind Energy development in Western Macedonia (4) Projects with: Operation License : 61MW Installation Lic. : 152MW EIA Approval : 796MW Production Lic. : 746MW 11
Wind Energy development in Western Macedonia (5) Projects with: Operation License : 61MW Installation L. : 152MW EIA Approval : 796MW Production L. : 746MW Applications PL : 378MW 12
Wind Energy development in Western Macedonia (6) Licensing status Capacity (MW) Application for Production License 377,6 Production License 746,5 EIA approval 795,7 Installation License 151,8 Operation License 61,3 Total 2132,9 Source: RAE/geo, downloaded 24/10/2019
Wind Energy development in Western Macedonia (7) Wind energy projects selected in auctions : 100,95MW
RES LCOE Versus Marginal Cost of Conventional Generation Certain Alternative Energy generation technologies, which became cost-competitive with conventional generation technologies several years ago, are, in some scenarios, approaching a LCOE that is at or below the marginal cost of existing conventional generation technologies Levelized Cost of New-Build Wind and Solar Marginal Cost of Existing Conventional Generation 90 56 44 80 41 45 70 47 Cost of Energy ($/MWh) 60 31 50 40 36 30 32 29 27 24 20 14 10 0 Onshore Wind Onshore Wind (Subsidized) Solar PV Solar PV(Subsidized) Coal Nuclear Source: LAZARD’ S LEVELIZED COST OF ENERGY ANALYSIS - VERSION 12.0 15
Comparison of Historical LCOE of Utility-Scale Generation Units LCOE analysis indicates significant historical cost declines for large scale Alternative Energy generation technologies driven by, among other factors, decreasing supply chain costs, improving technologies and increased competition. Percentages in the graph represent the total decrease in the average LCOE since 2009. $380 Gas Peaker (35%) $359 Nuclear (23%) $340 Solar Thermal (17%) Coal (9%) $300 Geothermal (21%) $275 Gas - Combined Cycle (30%) $260 Mean LCOE ($/MWh) Solar PV (88%) $248 $243 Wind (69%) $227 $220 $216 $205 $205 $192 $191 $183 $180 $179 $174 $168 $159 $157 $157 $151 $151 $150 $148 $145 $140 $140 $140 $135 $125 $124 $124 $123 $117 $117 $116 $116 $116 $116 $112 $111 $111 $111 $108 $107 $107 $105 $104 $104 $104 $102 $102 $102 $102 $100 $100 $98 $97 $96 $96 $95 $95 $91 $83 $83 $79 $76 $75 $74 $74 $72 $70 $65 $64 $63 $60 $60 $59 $58 $55 $55 $50 $47 $45 $43 $42 $20 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: LAZARD’ S LEVELIZED COST OF ENERGY ANALYSIS - VERSION 12.0 16
Comparison of Historical LCOE of RES In light of material declines in the pricing of system components (e.g., panels, inverters, turbines, etc.) and improvements in efficiency, among other factors, wind and large scale solar PV have seen dramatic historical LCOE declines; however, over the past several years the rate of such LCOE declines have started to flatten . Large Scale Solar 9-Year Percentage Decrease: (88%) Wind 9-Year Percentage Decrease: (69%) Range of Unsubsidized Solar PV LCOE Range of Unsubsidized Wind LCOE $450 $180 $169 $394 $400 $160 $148 $350 $140 $300 $323 $270 $120 LCOE ($/MWh) LCOE ($/MWh) $95 $95 $250 $92 $100 $81 $101 $99 $77 $200 $226 $166 $80 $149 $62 $60 $56 $150 $60 $104 $148 $86 $100 $70 $40 $50 $61 $48 $53 $45 $101 $46 $91 $37 $50 $72 $32 $32 $20 $30 $29 $58 $49 $46 $40 $0 $0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: LAZARD’ S LEVELIZED COST OF ENERGY ANALYSIS - VERSION 12.0 17
Wind auctions in Greece, RV in €/MWh The lowest and highest bid and the weighted average of the bids of each RES auction conducted in Greece so far is presented. 80,00 75,00 71,93 69,18 70,00 69,53 65,37 68,18 67,32 65,00 60,00 60,00 58,58 59,09 55,00 55,00 50,00 July 2018 December 2018 April 2019 July 2019 3<Wind≤50 MW 3<Wind≤50 MW Wind>50MW 3<Wind≤50 MW 18
LCOE is sensitive to the CF% The performed sensitivity analysis of the LCOE for various levels of capacity factor, indicates the importance of exploiting the windiest areas. Key Assumptions Sensitivity Analysis of the LCOE of a typical wind farm Capacity (MW) 50 Fixed O&M (€/kW-year) 35 80,00 76 Municipal tax (% of turnover) 3% 75,00 Balancing cost (€/MWh) 4 70 O&M Escalation Rate 1% 70,00 65 Capital Structure 65,00 Debt 70% 60 LCOE (€/MWh) Cost of Debt 3,4% 60,00 56 Equity 30% 53 55,00 Cost of Equity 7,0% 50 47 50,00 Taxes and Tax Incentives: 45 Tax Rate 20% 43 45,00 41 Economic Life (years) 20 Depreciation (years) 10 40,00 Loan tenor (years) 15 35,00 Capex 30,00 EPC Costs (€/kW) 1.100 20% 22% 24% 26% 28% 30% 32% 34% 36% 38% 40% Capacity Factor (%) Important note: The analysis is based on general assumptions and should not be considered as an advice or a proposed binding policy direction. 19
LCOE is sensitive to the CF% The performed sensitivity analysis of the LCOE for various levels of capacity factor, indicates the importance of exploiting the windiest areas. Key Assumptions Sensitivity Analysis of the LCOE of a typical wind farm Capacity (MW) 50 Fixed O&M (€/kW-year) 35 80,00 76 Municipal tax (% of turnover) 3% 75,00 Balancing cost (€/MWh) 4 70 O&M Escalation Rate 1% 70,00 65 Capital Structure 65,00 Debt 70% 60 LCOE (€/MWh) Cost of Debt 3,4% 60,00 56 Equity 30% 53 55,00 Cost of Equity 7,0% 50 47 50,00 Taxes and Tax Incentives: 45 Tax Rate 20% 43 45,00 41 Economic Life (years) 20 Depreciation (years) 10 40,00 Loan tenor (years) 15 35,00 Western Macedonia Capex 30,00 EPC Costs (€/kW) 1.100 20% 22% 24% 26% 28% 30% 32% 34% 36% 38% 40% Capacity Factor (%) Important note: The analysis is based on general assumptions and should not be considered as an advice or a proposed binding policy direction. 20
LCOE is sensitive to the CF% The performed sensitivity analysis of the LCOE for various levels of capacity factor, indicates the importance of exploiting the windiest areas. Key Assumptions Sensitivity Analysis of the LCOE of a typical wind farm Capacity (MW) 50 Fixed O&M (€/kW-year) 35 80,00 76 Municipal tax (% of turnover) 3% 75,00 Balancing cost (€/MWh) 4 70 O&M Escalation Rate 1% 70,00 65 Capital Structure 65,00 Debt 70% 60 LCOE (€/MWh) Cost of Debt 3,4% 60,00 56 Equity 30% 53 55,00 Cost of Equity 7,0% 50 47 50,00 Taxes and Tax Incentives: 45 Tax Rate 20% 43 45,00 41 Economic Life (years) 20 Depreciation (years) 10 40,00 Loan tenor (years) 15 35,00 Western Macedonia Capex 30,00 EPC Costs (€/kW) 1.100 20% 22% 24% 26% 28% 30% 32% 34% 36% 38% 40% Capacity Factor (%) Weighted average of all final bids for wind projects in Western Macedonia, participated in the auctions 7/2018-7/2019: 66,8 €/MWh Important note: The analysis is based on general assumptions and should not be considered as an advice or a proposed binding policy direction. 21
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