What's Missing? Analysis of NCVS missed crimes results 2012 to 2017 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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What's Missing? Analysis of NCVS missed crimes results 2012 to 2017 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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What's Missing? Analysis of NCVS missed crimes results 2012 to 2017 Alan Peterson Quality Assurance and Measurement Error Demographic Statistical Methods Division United States Census Bureau JSM 2018 re those of the authors and Disclaimer:

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What's Missing? Analysis of NCVS missed crimes results 2012 to 2017

Alan Peterson Quality Assurance and Measurement Error Demographic Statistical Methods Division United States Census Bureau JSM 2018

re those of the authors and those of the U.S. Census Bureau.

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Disclaimer: Any views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of the United States Census Bureau

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NCVS Goal

  • National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) – household

survey conducted to provide national/subnational personal and property victimization crime rates

  • Data gathered during interview includes:
  • Type of crime
  • Monetary loss/physical injury
  • Reported or not reported to police

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Reinterview

Reinterview (RI) is a second interview conducted at a household to determine if an interviewer actually conducted an interview and if the interviewer conducted it in accordance with established interview procedures. Goals of RI include… Overall:

  • Maintain the quality of survey data
  • Monitor Interviewer performance and adherence to

procedures NCVS:

  • Re-ask crime screener questions to estimate missed

crimes

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Reinterview Sampling Methodology

  • Random Reinterview involves selection of 3-4 percent of cases to check all

interviewers over course of cycle.

  • Interviewer experience is a stratification variable for sampling
  • Experienced vs inexperienced cutoff
  • Supervisors with > 2 months experience
  • Interviewers with > 5 years experience
  • Experienced interviewers, all supervisors potentially selected for random RI once a year;

Inexperienced interviewers twice a year.

  • Select sample of cases (6 for experienced, 5 for inexperienced)

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Missed Crimes

  • Crimes not reported during

NCVS interview then reported in NCVS RI.

  • Missed crimes estimated

using response to crime screener questions as a proxy for reported crimes.

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Missed Crimes Measures

  • Missed Crime Estimate
  • Weighted average of number of missed crimes by

experienced and inexperienced interviewers.

  • Households with Missed Crimes
  • Weighted average of number of households with missed

crimes by experienced and inexperienced interviewers.

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Missed Crimes Measures

  • Proportion of Missed Crimes
  • Ratio of # of missed crimes (RI) to (number of crimes

(original interview) + number of missed crimes (RI))

  • Proportion of Households with Missed Crimes
  • Ratio of households with missed crimes (RI) to

number of households in original interview

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Limitations

  • Need both completed interview and reinterview
  • Reinterview asks single person in household about

person crimes not all persons

  • Changes in reinterview instrument over timeframe

2012-2017 (content, data collection)

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Evaluation Measures

  • Missed crime measures over time (2012-2017)
  • Missed crimes by interviewer experience
  • Missed crimes by household characteristics

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Missed crimes: 2012 - 2017

Missed Crimes and Households with Missed Crimes

Year Missed Crimes Percent of Crimes Missing Households with Missed Crimes Percent of Households with Missed Crimes 2012 709.00 (522.78, 895.21) 7.90% (5.99%, 9.81%) 513.29 (355.46, 671.12) 7.99% (5.73%, 10.25%) 2013 1,021.63 (777.61, 1,265.65) 12.41% (9.82%, 15.01%) 645.40 (453.59, 837.21) 10.99% (8.08%, 13.90%) 2014 959.03 (747.35, 1,170.71) 12.60% (10.17%, 15.03%) 638.63 (466.75, 810.51) 11.79% (8.99%, 14.59%) 2015 716.86 (527.69, 906.03) 8.65% (6.57%, 10.74%) 580.04 (413.84, 746.25) 9.53% (7.06%, 12.00%) 2016 1,621.33 (1,336.14, 1,906.52) 10.56% (8.89%, 12.22%) 1,150.87 (912.29, 1,389.46) 10.58% (8.62%, 12.54%) 2017 976.10 (742.87, 1,209.33) 7.75% (6.04%, 9.46%) 751.40 (547.99, 954.82) 8.10% (6.09%, 10.12%)

Source: United States Census Bureau 2012-2017 National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) Quality Control Reports

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Missed crimes: 2012 - 2017

709.0 1,021.6 959.0 716.9 1,621.3 976.1 400 800 1,200 1,600 2,000 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Number of Missed Crimes

Missed Crime Estimates 2012-2017

Missed Crimes Lower CL Upper CL

Source: United States Census Bureau 2012-2017 National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) Quality Control Reports

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Missed crimes: 2012 - 2017

7.90% 12.41% 12.60% 8.65% 10.56% 7.75%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Proportion of Missed Crimes

Percent Missed Crimes 2012-2017

Percent of Crimes Missing Lower CL Upper CL

Source: United States Census Bureau 2012-2017 National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) Quality Control Reports

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Interviewer Comparisons

54% 53% 68% 68% 75% 70%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2012 (n=57) 2013 (n=53) 2014 (n=79) 2015 (n=57) 2016 (n=114) 2017 (n=92)

FR Experience Level Distribution 2012-17

Households with missed property/personal crimes

Inexperienced Experienced

Source: United States Census Bureau National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) Production and Reinterview Results Files 13

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Household Comparisons

88% 83% 86% 86% 82% 84%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2012 (n=57) 2013 (n=53) 2014 (n=79) 2015 (n=57) 2016 (n=114) 2017 (n=92)

Urban/Rural Distribution 2012-17

Households with missed property/personal crimes

Urban Rural

Source: United States Census Bureau National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) Production and Reinterview Results Files 14

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Household Comparisons

60% 64% 56% 53% 59% 59% 39% 34% 43% 46% 37% 38%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2012 (n=57) 2013 (n=53) 2014 (n=79) 2015 (n=57) 2016 (n=114) 2017 (n=92)

Tenure Distribution 2012-17

Households with missed property/personal crimes

Owned Rented No Cash Rent

Source: United States Census Bureau National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) Production and Reinterview Results Files 15

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Household Comparisons

25% 23% 27% 26% 26% 29% 21% 21% 16% 23% 23% 21% 4% 17% 9% 12% 11% 17% 25% 15% 23% 14% 27% 14% 26% 25% 25% 25% 13% 18%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2012 (n=57) 2013 (n=53) 2014 (n=79) 2015 (n=57) 2016 (n=114) 2017 (n=92)

Household Income Distribution 2012-17

Households with missed property/personal crimes

Less than $25,000 $25,000 - $49,999 $50,000 - $74,999 $75,000 and over Refused

Source: United States Census Bureau National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) Production and Reinterview Results Files 16

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Conclusions

  • Inexperienced FRs make up larger proportion of missed

crime households in 2016 & 2017 than in prior years.

  • Household tenure and Urban/Rural breakdowns of

missed crime households appear consistent over time.

  • Household income distributions of missed crime

households vary across timeframe. Still consistent when collapsing income categories.

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Alan Peterson

Quality Assurance and Measurement Error Demographic Statistical Methods Division U.S. Census Bureau

alan.k.peterson@census.gov

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