Whats Driving the Utah Economy? Presentation for WSATA September - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

What’s Driving the Utah Economy? Presentation for WSATA September 2018 Eric Cropper Senior Economist Utah State Tax Commission

2017 2017 To Total Non Non Fa Farm Em Emplo ployment (P (Per ercen cent Chang Change)

Top 10 To 10 St States es Em Emplo ployment Gr Growt owth (2010 (2010 ‐ 2017) 2017) Top 10 Growth in Total Non Farm Compound Annual Growth States Employment Rate in Total Non Farm Employment Utah 24.15% 3.14% Nevada 19.97% 2.63% Colorado 19.68% 2.60% Florida 19.43% 2.57% Idaho 18.86% 2.50% Texas 17.84% 2.37% California 17.68% 2.35% Washington 17.27% 2.30% Oregon 16.92% 2.26% Arizona 16.19% 2.17% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Rate of Ra of Em Emplo ployment Chang Change U.S. and U. and Ut Utah ah 10.0% Utah US 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% 10 70 80 90 00

Wh What at is is Dri Driving Ut Utah’ ah’s Em Emplo ployment Gr Growt owth? • Unique Demographics • Diversified Economy • Strong Tourism Industry • Clusters of High Growth Companies • Business Friendly Tax/Regulatory Climate

Utah is in the Center of the Fastest Grow ing Region in the Country Percent Change in Population for States : 1990 to 2017 U.S. Rate = 29.9% NH ME WA VT MA MT ND MN OR NY RI WI ID SD MI WY CT PA IA OH NE NJ IN IL NV UT WV CO VA DE MO KY CA KS NC TN MD SC OK AZ AR NM GA MS AL TX LA FL AK > 70% HI 30% to <70% 10% to <30% < 10% Source: U.S Census Bureau

Annual Annual Ra Rate of of Popula pulation ion Chang Change ‐ Na Natur tural Increase Incr se (July (July 1, 1, 2016 2016 to to Ju July ly 1, 1, 2017) 2017)

Fertility rtility Ra Rate and and Househol Household Si Size – U – Utah & U. U.S.

Utah’s Population by Age and Sex: 2016 U.S. Population by Age and Sex: 2016 8 5+ 8 5+ Male Female Male Female 8 0 - 8 4 8 0 - 8 4 75- 79 75- 79 70 - 74 70 - 74 6 5- 6 9 6 5- 6 9 6 0 - 6 4 6 0 - 6 4 55- 59 55- 59 50 - 54 50 - 54 4 5- 4 9 4 5- 4 9 4 0 - 4 4 4 0 - 4 4 3 5- 3 9 3 5- 3 9 3 0 - 3 4 3 0 - 3 4 2 5- 2 9 2 5- 2 9 2 0 - 2 4 2 0 - 2 4 15- 19 15- 19 10 - 14 10 - 14 5- 9 5- 9 0 - 4 0 - 4 15 10 5 0 5 10 15 150 ,0 0 0 10 0 ,0 0 0 50 ,0 0 0 0 50 ,0 0 0 10 0 ,0 0 0 150 ,0 0 0 Population Population Millions Dominating the Labor Force Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census

Employmen Emplo ment Change Change by by Indus Industri trial Sect Sector Construction 12,838 Information 3,992 Prof./Tech. 8,058 Healthcare 12,861 Transportation 4,915 Leisure & Hospitality 9,899 Education 10,602 Financial Activities 5,098 Retail Trade 10,047 Business Services 4,977 Manufacturing 5,442 2015 - 2017 Other Services 1,556 Public Administration 2,226 Wholesale Trade 814 Mining -1,750

Me Measuring Di Diversity Hachman Index for United States, 2017

What Ut Wha Utah ah Produces oduces – U – Utah & U. U.S. GDP GDP ‐ 2016 2016 Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting 0.5% 1.0% 1.4% Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction 1.4% 1.1% Utilities 1.6% 6.2% Construction 4.3% 11.2% Manufacturing 11.8% 5.3% Wholesale trade 6.0% 7.1% Retail trade 5.9% 3.5% Transportation and warehousing 3.0% 4.5% Information 4.9% 9.8% Finance and insurance 7.6% 12.5% Real estate and rental and leasing 13.4% 6.3% Professional, scientific, and technical services 7.2% 1.5% Management of companies and enterprises 1.9% 3.1% Admin. & support and waste mgmt. & remediation services 3.1% 1.3% Educational services 1.1% 5.7% Health care and social assistance 7.3% 0.9% Arts, entertainment, and recreation 1.0% 2.5% Accommodation and food services 3.0% 2.8% Other services (except public administration) 2.2% 12.8% Government 12.4% Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Regional Accounts data

Ut Utah ah To Total Skier Skier Da Days and and Na National tional Pa Park Re Recreation Visits Vi sits (m (million illions) National Park Visits Skier Days 10.5 10.1 8.4 7.2 6.6 6.3 6.3 6.1 6.0 5.7 5.5 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.0 5.0 4.6 4.5 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.4 3.3 3.1 3.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: Ski Utah and the U.S. National Park Service Compiled by Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of U.S. Travel Association data

To Total Tr Travel & To Tourism Job Jobs ‐ Ut Utah ah Direct Indirect & Induced 146,500 138,000 131,500 126,500 125,500 60,100 56,300 53700 51700 51650 86400 81,700 77800 73850 74800 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of U.S. Travel Association data

US US Change Change in in Em Emplo ployment by by Zip Zip Code Code Quin intile tile Source: Economic Innovation Group ‐ https://eig.org/dci/escape ‐ velocity#interactives

Ut Utah’ ah’s Coun County ty Emplo Employmen ment Expansi Expansion Utah 32.2% Wasatch 22.9% Davis 22.3% Grand 20.4% Washington 19.0% Summit 18.6% Salt Lake 16.2% Cache 14.8% Morgan 13.4% Weber 9.9% Millard 8.6% Kane 8.3% Iron 6.7% Sevier 5.9% Beaver 4.4% Sanpete 3.8% From Pre-Recession High to Current Rich 3.7% Tooele 3.4% Garfield -0.7% San Juan -1.0% Box Elder -1.5% Wayne -5.5% Juab -6.5% Duchesne -7.4% Daggett -8.2% Carbon -13.1% Uintah -18.2% Emery -21.8% Piute -28.1% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Hi High gh Gr Growt owth Companies Companies

2018 2018 St State Business Business Ta Tax Clim limate In Index Source: Tax Foundation ‐ https://taxfoundation.org/publications/state ‐ business ‐ tax ‐ climate ‐ index/

Ameri America' a's To Top St States es fo for Business Business 2016 2016 Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/12/americas ‐ top ‐ states ‐ for ‐ business ‐ 2016 ‐ the ‐ list ‐ and ‐ ranking.html

We Well Ma Manage ged and and Fisc Fiscally ally Sound Sound St State • Utah is one of only 10 states to hold a AAA bond rating from all three rating agencies • Ranked as the best state for business by Forbes in 6 of the last 8 years • Consistently ranked among the top states in best for business and best managed states

Concl Conclusi sion on • Unique Demographics • Diversified Economy • Strong Tourism Industry • Clusters of High Growth Companies • Business Friendly Tax/Regulatory Climate