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Washington Area Economy: Performance and Outlook Center for Regional Analysis Schar School of Policy and Government George Mason University April 8, 2019 U.S. Gross Domestic Product Quarterly Change Real GDP (Billions) 6.0 $20,000 $19,000

  1. Washington Area Economy: Performance and Outlook Center for Regional Analysis Schar School of Policy and Government George Mason University April 8, 2019

  2. U.S. Gross Domestic Product Quarterly Change Real GDP (Billions) 6.0 $20,000 $19,000 5.0 $18,000 4.0 $17,000 3.0 $16,000 % 2.0 $15,000 $14,000 1.0 $13,000 0.0 $12,000 -1.0 $11,000 -2.0 $10,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2017 +2.2% 2018 +2.9% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (Seasonally Adjusted, Chained 2012 Dollars )

  3. Annual Change in Payroll Jobs – US Month-Over-Year (000s) 4,000 2,000 Mar = +2.5M 0 -2,000 -4,000 -6,000 -8,000 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  4. US Payroll Job Change Month-to-Month (000s) 700 500 Mar = 300 +196k 100 -100 -300 -500 -700 -900 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  5. US Payroll Jobs Month-to-Month Change (000s) Total (Millions) 400 155 2018- 350 2019 150 2.5M 300 145 250 Mar +196K 200 140 150 135 100 Since 130 50 2010 +21M 0 125 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  6. U.S. Payroll Job Change by Sector Mar 2018 – Mar 2019 Total = 2,537,000 Ranked by Size in 2018 (000s) Educ & Health Svcs 545 Prof. & Bus. Svcs 534 State & Local Govt 106 Retail Trade -36 Leisure & Hosp. 435 Manufacturing 209 Financial 101 Construction 246 Wholesale Trade 83 Other Services 92 Transp. & Util. 179 Federal Govt. 4 Information -3 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  7. U.S. Payroll Job Change by Sector Feb 2019 – Mar 2019 Total = +196k Ranked by Size in 2018 (000s) Educ & Health Svcs 70 Prof. & Bus. Svcs 37 State & Local Govt 16 Retail Trade -12 Leisure & Hosp. 33 Manufacturing -6 Financial 11 Construction 16 Wholesale Trade -2 Other Services 14 Transp. & Util. 7 Federal Govt. -2 Information 10 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  8. U.S. Unemployment Rate % 10.0 Mar 3.8 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  9. U.S. Unemployment 15.0 U-6 10.0 Mar18 Mar to 7.3% UR Mar19 5.0 Mar U-6 3.8% -0.6% 0.0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 UR -0.2% 64 Mar 63% LFPR 62 60 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  10. Initial Claims for Unemployment 4-Week Moving Average (000s) 700 650 600 550 500 Mar 30: 450 202K 400 350 300 250 200 Source: Department of Labor (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  11. Initial Claims for Unemployment 4-Week Moving Average (000s) 500 450 400 Mar 30: 350 202K 300 250 200 Source: Department of Labor (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  12. Average Weekly Earnings U.S., Total Private, Across all Industries Average Weekly Earnings Real Average Weekly Earnings (1982-1984 dollars) 1,200 Mar 18 – Mar 19 Avg Hourly Wages 1,000 +3.2% 800 Mar 18 – Mar19 600 Avg Weekly Earnings +3.2% 400 200 Feb 18 – Feb 19 0 Real Avg Weekly Earnings +1.6% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  13. Labor Productivity Nonfarm business, seasonally adjusted 7 120 QOTYC Index 6 100 5 80 4 3 60 2 40 1 20 0 -1 0 Base year (100) = 2012 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  14. Consumer Confidence 200 180 160 Current Situation March 2019 140 Cur. = 160.6 120 Exp. = 99.8 (1985 = 100) 100 Expectations 80 60 40 20 0 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Source: The Conference Board, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  15. Annual Consumer Prices 2001 - 2018 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  16. Interest Rates 2001 - 2018 8.0 7.0 6.0 30-Yr 5.0 % 4.0 10-Yr Treas 3.0 Fed 2.0 1.0 0.0 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  17. 10-yr./1-yr. yield spread Percentage points 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 Only false signal -3 -4 '59 '62 '65 '68 '71 '74 '77 '80 '83 '86 '89 '92 '95 '98 '01 '04 '07 Source: FRB Dallas

  18. 10-yr./1-yr. yield spread 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 Source: U.S. Treasury, Yield Curve for Treasury Nominal Coupon Issues (TNC yield curve), which is derived from Treasury nomin al notes and bonds

  19. U.S. New and Existing Home Sales (000s) ( 000s ) 7,000 1000 Feb 18 - 6,500 900 Feb 19 Existing (Left Axis) 6,000 800 -1.8% 5,500 700 5,000 600 4,500 500 New (Right Axis) 4,000 400 Feb 18 - 3,500 300 Feb 19 3,000 200 0.6% 2,500 100 4k 2,000 0 Source: U.S. Census (New)(Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate), National Association of Realtors (Existing)

  20. Growth in Total Consumption Outlays 6 5 3.8 4 3.5 3.2 3.1 3 2.9 2.7 3 2.5 2.3 2.2 1.9 2 1.5 1.5 1 0 -0.3 -1 -1.6 -2 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

  21. U.S. GDP 2007 – 2018 % (Annual % Change) 4 2.9 2.9 2.6 2.5 2.2 2.2 1.9 1.8 2 1.6 1.6 % 0 -0.1 -2 -2.5 -4 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis , GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  22. The Washington Economy

  23. Elements of Population Change Washington MSA 120,000 +2.0% +1.7% +1.5% +1.1% +1.0% +1.0% +1.1% 100,000 23,864 3,143 6,843 80,000 41,048 44,760 45,410 39,715 37,183 39,358 45,606 60,000 Population Change 40,000 49,016 49,169 48,651 47,790 47,832 44,882 42,616 20,000 0 Net Domestic Migration -21,543 -23,209 -31,483 -31,492 -20,000 Net Int'l Migration Natural Increase -40,000 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015 2015-2016 2016-2017 Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program, V2017

  24. Annual Job Change – MOTYC Washington MSA (000s) 150 100 50 0 -50 -100 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  25. Annual Job Change - Washington MSA 000’s MOTYC Non-Farm Jobs 000’s 110 3,400 90 3,300 70 3,200 50 Feb 18- 3,100 Feb 19 30 +20.7 K 3,000 10 2,900 -10 -30 2,800 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 February-19 Total: 3,290 K Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  26. Annual Job Change – MOTYC District of Columbia (000s) 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  27. Annual Job Change – District of Columbia MOTYC Non-Farm Jobs 000’s 000’s 25 820 800 20 780 15 760 Feb 18- 10 Feb 19 740 +2.7 K 5 720 0 700 -5 680 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 February-19 Total: 791 K Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  28. Annual Job Change – MOTYC Suburban Maryland (000s) 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  29. Annual Job Change – Suburban MD 000’s MOTYC Non-Farm Jobs 000’s 30 1,040 1,020 25 1,000 20 980 Feb 18- 15 Feb 19 960 -3,300 10 940 5 920 0 900 -5 880 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 February-19 Total: 1,000 K Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  30. Annual Job Change – MOTYC Northern Virginia (000s) 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2005 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  31. Annual Job Change – Northern VA 000’s MOTYC Non-Farm Jobs 000’s 50 1,550 40 1,500 30 1,450 Feb 18- Feb 19 20 +18.5K 1,400 10 1,350 0 1,300 -10 -20 1,250 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 February - 19 Total: 1,484 K Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  32. Employment Composition by Sector February 2019 Washington MSA Professional & Business Services 23.3% Education & Health Services 13.5% Federal Government 11.0% State & Local Government 10.5% Leisure & Hospitality 10.1% Retail Trade 8.0% Other Services 6.3% Construction 4.7% Financial Activites 4.7% Information 2.2% Transportation & Utilities 2.1% Wholesale Trade 1.9% Manufacturing 1.6% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

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